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OT: Bitcoin, Altcoins, NFT's & All Things Crypto

I've been trying to figure out how the various bitcoin ETFs are priced. I realize there are different fees for each of them but can someone explain why the ETF price varies so much among the individual ETFs?
the prices themselves can vary based on underlying value (NAV) and the structure of the ETF and investor exuberance (or lack there of).

not all ETFs, even in the same thing - have to "structure" the ETF exactly the same (say: 1 ETF share = .000001 BTC) - it might be .01 BTC or .12312 BTC - some people want a "low cost" (low share price) ETf and others may want position as an expensive ETF...

when an ETF share price is going up concurrent with the value of the underlying asset - that's (relatively) good...

we saw share prices jump up faster than BTC prices today... that was silly (which is standard in this world, i guess).
 
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Sorry, no f'ing clue as of now. I am watching FBTC. It quickly spiked to $50, but then has been drifting down to the low $40s (at $41.20) with a volume of about 9 million. Not sure how long it will take for the dust to settle.
Which as a spot price etf i would think(finally edited) it wouldn’t do this.

But i dont know how the mechanics of these things work.
 
Last edited:
Which as a spot price etf i would throw nk it wouldn’t do this.

But i dont know how the mechanics of these things work.
I just think it is the dust settling from a new listing. Kind of like IPO day for a stock. We shall see!
 
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Which as a spot price etf i would throw nk it wouldn’t do this.

But i dont know how the mechanics of these things work.
Right now GBTC is trading at a slight discount to NAV. The new ETFs are all trading at some level of premium to NAV but all have lower fees than Grayscale (1.5% fee lowered from their original 2%). The decision to make at this point in time is whether to pay the premium for the lower fees (FBTC 0% fee) vs waiting for the premium to be closer to par or at a discount before switching from GBTC.
 
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SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce - Statement on the BTC ETF Approval. Long but damn good:

Jan. 10, 2024

Today marks the end of an unnecessary, but consequential, saga. More than ten years after the filing of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded product (“ETP”) application, the Commission finally has approved multiple applications by exchanges to allow the listing and trading of spot bitcoin ETPs. This saga likely would have spanned well beyond a decade were it not for the DC Circuit-ex-machina.[2] You need not be a seasoned securities lawyer to spot the difference in treatment of bitcoin-related ETP applications compared to the many other ETP applications that have been routinely filed and approved over the past decade.

ETPs are an important innovation. Through them, investors can gain exposure to securities and non-securities, such as precious metals, in a convenient vehicle. Even if that exposure is available directly elsewhere, the ETP structure offers its own advantages. ETP shares trade continually on national stock exchanges at market prices, much as regular stocks do. By creating and redeeming shares of the fund, institutional traders, called authorized participants, help to maintain the price of these shares in line with the price of the assets in the investment pool. ETPs are accessible to investors and operate within the framework of the federal securities laws.

Since I became a Commissioner six years ago, one of the questions I have been asked most frequently is “When will the Commission approve a spot bitcoin ETP?” For reasons I have explained many times before, the logic of the long string of denials is perplexing.[3] Predicting approval timelines for spot bitcoin ETPs was impossible because the review process for these filings did not resemble the fairly straightforward processes for approving comparable ETPs. The goalposts kept moving as the Commission slapped “DENIED” on application after application.

Bitcoin-based products have been trading for years under other regulatory regimes. In 2017, for example, the CME and the CBOE, which are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, listed bitcoin futures.[4] Foreign jurisdictions have long allowed spot bitcoin ETPs to trade. The Commission should have drawn comfort from the successful launch and smooth trading of these products, even through market stress and volatility. Instead, until today, the Commission remained steadfast in its unwillingness to let spot bitcoin ETPs into US markets.

In the meantime, the Commission has driven retail investors to less efficient means of attaining bitcoin exposure in the securities markets.[5] For example, retail investors could hold it through non-exchange traded products or get some exposure by buying into companies or funds that owned or mined bitcoin. And, in 2021, bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”), registered under the 1940 Act, started to trade given the Commission had no legal basis for stopping them. In 2022, the Commission approved the trading of bitcoin futures ETPs registered under the 1933 Act. These futures-based products are more complex and more difficult to manage than the spot product, which can translate into higher costs for investors. In any case, the Commission’s basis for letting these products trade should have been an equally compelling basis for letting spot products trade: the correlation between the bitcoin futures prices and the spot prices is high, which means that the regulated futures market is as relevant for a product based on spot bitcoin as it is for a fund investing in bitcoin futures. But, until a court reminded us that our “unexplained discounting of the obvious financial and mathematical relationship between the spot and futures markets falls short of the standard for reasoned decisionmaking,”[6] we persisted in denying a spot bitcoin ETP.

The Commission, rather than admitting error, offers a weak explanation for its change of heart. In the past, the Commission, allowing our prejudice against the underlying asset to get in the way, has rejected applications on the basis that the bitcoin market was still immature and that there were outstanding manipulation concerns. Today’s approval order notes that the Commission now finds that means for “preventing fraud and manipulation” have been demonstrated because the prices on the CME bitcoin futures market and the spot bitcoin markets have been highly correlated throughout the past two-and-a-half years.[7] We have denied multiple applications over that period, depriving investors of the opportunity to gain exposure to bitcoin in a more convenient and investor-friendly way. The only material change since we last denied a similar application was a judicial rebuke.

We squandered a decade of opportunities to do our job. If we had applied the standard we use for other commodity-based ETPs, we could have approved these products years ago, but we refused to do so until a court called our bluff.
And even now our approval comes only begrudgingly,[8] as demonstrated by our continued insistence that these products satisfy a correlation test we have not demanded of prior commodity-based ETPs.[9] Perhaps the one silver lining here is now that we know that the Commission can execute a robust correlation analysis, perhaps the road to approving other spot crypto ETPs will not be as bumpy (even if the Commission insists on continuing to apply a test it applies nowhere else).

Today’s order does not undo the many harms created by the disparate treatment of spot bitcoin products.

First, our arbitrary and capricious treatment of applications in this area will continue to harm our reputation far beyond crypto. Diminished trust from the public will inhibit our ability to regulate the markets effectively. This saga will taint future interactions between the industry and our staff and will dampen the rich, informative dialogue that best protects investors.

Second, our disproportionate attention on these filings has diverted limited staff resources away from other mission critical work. Over ten years, likely millions of dollars of staff time has gone toward blocking these applications.

Third, our actions here have muddied people’s understanding of what the SEC’s role is. Congress did not authorize us to tell people whether a particular investment is right for them, but we have abused administrative procedures to withhold investments that we do not like from the public.

Fourth, by failing to follow our normal standards and processes in considering spot bitcoin ETPs, we have created an artificial frenzy around them. Had these products come to market in the way other comparable products typically have, we would have avoided the circus atmosphere in which we now find ourselves.

Fifth, we have alienated a generation of product innovators within our space. Our unreasonable approach to these applications has signaled that regulatory prejudice against new products and services can lead us to sidestep the law and unreasonably delay product launches. The industry has logged hundreds of meetings, has filed submissions, withdrawals and amendments, and ultimately had to resort to a costly legal battle to get us to today.

Although this is a time for reflection, it is also a time for celebration. I am not celebrating bitcoin or bitcoin-related products; what one regulator thinks about bitcoin is irrelevant. I am celebrating the right of American investors to express their thoughts on bitcoin by buying and selling spot bitcoin ETPs.[10] And I am celebrating the perseverance of market participants in trying to bring to market a product they think investors want. I commend applicants’ decade-long persistence in the face of the Commission’s obstruction.
 
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SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce - Statement on the BTC ETF Approval. Long but damn good:

Jan. 10, 2024

Today marks the end of an unnecessary, but consequential, saga. More than ten years after the filing of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded product (“ETP”) application, the Commission finally has approved multiple applications by exchanges to allow the listing and trading of spot bitcoin ETPs. This saga likely would have spanned well beyond a decade were it not for the DC Circuit-ex-machina.[2] You need not be a seasoned securities lawyer to spot the difference in treatment of bitcoin-related ETP applications compared to the many other ETP applications that have been routinely filed and approved over the past decade.

ETPs are an important innovation. Through them, investors can gain exposure to securities and non-securities, such as precious metals, in a convenient vehicle. Even if that exposure is available directly elsewhere, the ETP structure offers its own advantages. ETP shares trade continually on national stock exchanges at market prices, much as regular stocks do. By creating and redeeming shares of the fund, institutional traders, called authorized participants, help to maintain the price of these shares in line with the price of the assets in the investment pool. ETPs are accessible to investors and operate within the framework of the federal securities laws.

Since I became a Commissioner six years ago, one of the questions I have been asked most frequently is “When will the Commission approve a spot bitcoin ETP?” For reasons I have explained many times before, the logic of the long string of denials is perplexing.[3] Predicting approval timelines for spot bitcoin ETPs was impossible because the review process for these filings did not resemble the fairly straightforward processes for approving comparable ETPs. The goalposts kept moving as the Commission slapped “DENIED” on application after application.

Bitcoin-based products have been trading for years under other regulatory regimes. In 2017, for example, the CME and the CBOE, which are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, listed bitcoin futures.[4] Foreign jurisdictions have long allowed spot bitcoin ETPs to trade. The Commission should have drawn comfort from the successful launch and smooth trading of these products, even through market stress and volatility. Instead, until today, the Commission remained steadfast in its unwillingness to let spot bitcoin ETPs into US markets.

In the meantime, the Commission has driven retail investors to less efficient means of attaining bitcoin exposure in the securities markets.[5] For example, retail investors could hold it through non-exchange traded products or get some exposure by buying into companies or funds that owned or mined bitcoin. And, in 2021, bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”), registered under the 1940 Act, started to trade given the Commission had no legal basis for stopping them. In 2022, the Commission approved the trading of bitcoin futures ETPs registered under the 1933 Act. These futures-based products are more complex and more difficult to manage than the spot product, which can translate into higher costs for investors. In any case, the Commission’s basis for letting these products trade should have been an equally compelling basis for letting spot products trade: the correlation between the bitcoin futures prices and the spot prices is high, which means that the regulated futures market is as relevant for a product based on spot bitcoin as it is for a fund investing in bitcoin futures. But, until a court reminded us that our “unexplained discounting of the obvious financial and mathematical relationship between the spot and futures markets falls short of the standard for reasoned decisionmaking,”[6] we persisted in denying a spot bitcoin ETP.

The Commission, rather than admitting error, offers a weak explanation for its change of heart. In the past, the Commission, allowing our prejudice against the underlying asset to get in the way, has rejected applications on the basis that the bitcoin market was still immature and that there were outstanding manipulation concerns. Today’s approval order notes that the Commission now finds that means for “preventing fraud and manipulation” have been demonstrated because the prices on the CME bitcoin futures market and the spot bitcoin markets have been highly correlated throughout the past two-and-a-half years.[7] We have denied multiple applications over that period, depriving investors of the opportunity to gain exposure to bitcoin in a more convenient and investor-friendly way. The only material change since we last denied a similar application was a judicial rebuke.

We squandered a decade of opportunities to do our job. If we had applied the standard we use for other commodity-based ETPs, we could have approved these products years ago, but we refused to do so until a court called our bluff.
And even now our approval comes only begrudgingly,[8] as demonstrated by our continued insistence that these products satisfy a correlation test we have not demanded of prior commodity-based ETPs.[9] Perhaps the one silver lining here is now that we know that the Commission can execute a robust correlation analysis, perhaps the road to approving other spot crypto ETPs will not be as bumpy (even if the Commission insists on continuing to apply a test it applies nowhere else).

Today’s order does not undo the many harms created by the disparate treatment of spot bitcoin products.

First, our arbitrary and capricious treatment of applications in this area will continue to harm our reputation far beyond crypto. Diminished trust from the public will inhibit our ability to regulate the markets effectively. This saga will taint future interactions between the industry and our staff and will dampen the rich, informative dialogue that best protects investors.

Second, our disproportionate attention on these filings has diverted limited staff resources away from other mission critical work. Over ten years, likely millions of dollars of staff time has gone toward blocking these applications.

Third, our actions here have muddied people’s understanding of what the SEC’s role is. Congress did not authorize us to tell people whether a particular investment is right for them, but we have abused administrative procedures to withhold investments that we do not like from the public.

Fourth, by failing to follow our normal standards and processes in considering spot bitcoin ETPs, we have created an artificial frenzy around them. Had these products come to market in the way other comparable products typically have, we would have avoided the circus atmosphere in which we now find ourselves.

Fifth, we have alienated a generation of product innovators within our space. Our unreasonable approach to these applications has signaled that regulatory prejudice against new products and services can lead us to sidestep the law and unreasonably delay product launches. The industry has logged hundreds of meetings, has filed submissions, withdrawals and amendments, and ultimately had to resort to a costly legal battle to get us to today.

Although this is a time for reflection, it is also a time for celebration. I am not celebrating bitcoin or bitcoin-related products; what one regulator thinks about bitcoin is irrelevant. I am celebrating the right of American investors to express their thoughts on bitcoin by buying and selling spot bitcoin ETPs.[10] And I am celebrating the perseverance of market participants in trying to bring to market a product they think investors want. I commend applicants’ decade-long persistence in the face of the Commission’s obstruction.
lolzzz
 
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO confirming that Tether has the reserves they say they have. I’d say that I’m surprised by this revelation but it’s certainly positive news for the market.
 
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Cantor Fitzgerald CEO confirming that Tether has the reserves they say they have. I’d say that I’m surprised by this revelation but it’s certainly positive news for the market.
If indeed factual. It is huge.
USDT imploding has been one of my biggest concerns in the crypto space. Not a black swan to btc, but essentially another 2021 moment
 
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO confirming that Tether has the reserves they say they have. I’d say that I’m surprised by this revelation but it’s certainly positive news for the market.

Well that solves that, the 20 person outfit in the Caymans having a market cap on par with Vanguard that won’t submit an audit is totally safe. Ditch the banks for at best a family run business with zero oversight or accountability that can’t handle small time redemptions and loans money mostly to itself (Bitfinex), but is actually more likely the piggy bank of the world’s shadiest people.
 
The next potential black swan to fall is the SEC vs. Coinbase lawsuit. They literally can’t articulate their argument and the judge is wondering why they are even bringing this suit. Good thread for updates:
 
Bitcoin = "pet rock"

CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

“I call it the pet rock,” he added.

Dimon is a long-time bitcoin critic. The bank chief said in 2021 at peak crypto valuations that bitcoin was “worthless,” and he doubled down on that sentiment last year in Davos, Switzerland, when he told CNBC that the digital currency was a “hyped-up fraud.”

Bitcoin is trading just above $42,700, up more than 100% in the past year.

“This is the last time I’m talking about this with CNBC, so help me God,” Dimon said. “Blockchain is real. It’s a technology. We use it. It’s going to move money, it’s going to move data. It’s efficient. We’ve been talking about that for 12 years, too, and it’s very small.”

“I think we waste too many words on that,” Dimon added.

 
Highly doubt this holds true
But it would be good if it does. JD obviously has an agenda to push. As for BTC, we broke under the 8-week trendline, which normally means consolidation down to the 20-week.....around 36.5k. Any thoughts on this? Looking to buy more, but trying to be patient.
 
A lot of what I see is chop to lower until next leg up. But there are powerful forces working against it going down any further…
 
Bitcoin = "pet rock"

CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

“I call it the pet rock,” he added.

Dimon is a long-time bitcoin critic. The bank chief said in 2021 at peak crypto valuations that bitcoin was “worthless,” and he doubled down on that sentiment last year in Davos, Switzerland, when he told CNBC that the digital currency was a “hyped-up fraud.”

Bitcoin is trading just above $42,700, up more than 100% in the past year.

“This is the last time I’m talking about this with CNBC, so help me God,” Dimon said. “Blockchain is real. It’s a technology. We use it. It’s going to move money, it’s going to move data. It’s efficient. We’ve been talking about that for 12 years, too, and it’s very small.”

“I think we waste too many words on that,” Dimon added.

Joe Kiernen pushed back saying gold is also a pet rock. Dimon says he doesn’t own gold either. Essentially accepting what Kiernen said as true.

But Gold has performed fairly well over a couple thousand years or whatever.

So if BTC is essentially digital gold, which at this point i see it as, then it probably has significant runway.
 
So the ETF trade was definitely buy the rumor.

Its a little been sell the news. Remains to be seen if that trade is over.

But does institutional buying push this thing higher? Maybe the same question but maybe different, Does money that goes into these etf’s go directly to buying BTC?
 
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Joe Kiernen pushed back saying gold is also a pet rock. Dimon says he doesn’t own gold either. Essentially accepting what Kiernen said as true.

But Gold has performed fairly well over a couple thousand years or whatever.

So if BTC is essentially digital gold, which at this point i see it as, then it probably has significant runway.
+1
Very hard to argue BTC and gold are that different in principle.
 
So the ETF trade was definitely buy the rumor.

Its a little been sell the news. Remains to be seen if that trade is over.

But does institutional buying push this thing higher? Maybe the same question but maybe different, Does money that goes into these etf’s go directly to buying BTC?
I watched an analysis by Ben Cowen a few days ago and he said that if we close (weekly) below the 8-week MA that BTC almost always retests the 20-week MA. That means closing under $42500 (which I think BTC already did) and heading back to $36500'ish.

Check it out. Good watch and I think the 8/20 week breakdown starts around the 5 or 6 min mark:

 
So the ETF trade was definitely buy the rumor.

Its a little been sell the news. Remains to be seen if that trade is over.

But does institutional buying push this thing higher? Maybe the same question but maybe different, Does money that goes into these etf’s go directly to buying BTC?
Greyscale is selling about $4-600 million of btc a day. Once that slows/stops, then I think you can get an accurate idea of where it’s headed. And yes, the ETF’s are backing 1:1 with Bitcoin.
 
Greyscale is selling about $4-600 million of btc a day. Once that slows/stops, then I think you can get an accurate idea of where it’s headed. And yes, the ETF’s are backing 1:1 with Bitcoin.
Grayscale is crazy to keep fees so high. Short-term gain, long-term pain for them. As expected, lots of crypto stocks are dipping. I assume investors are moving money to the ETFs for more direct exposure. Sadly, I didn't have the guts to buy puts on any these stocks! LOL.
 
Why are they selling?
From Coindesk…
“Bitcoin [BTC) has dropped over 15% since the inaugural launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week with several billion in assets flowing out of Grayscale's GBTC. While a chunk of those billions has been from investors moving to lower fee ETFs and another chunk from investors taking profits on GBTC's (and bitcoin's) absolute price rise, at least some of that money is due to traders exiting what's likely been a very profitable bet that GBTC's discount to net asset value (NAV) would narrow.”
 
Just as with el Salvador, $coin launch and others btc has had its proce action built in preceding the events. Once gbtc outflows slow down it should move a little then when the halving happens the real supply shock will begin.

Btc is essentially always a sell the mainstream news asset. The luster of the etf launch will fade away and price will rise, bringing in fomo investors who will buy the top again and get rekt. Rinse and repeat
 
From one of my research sources:

Over the past two weeks, BTC has faced two main challenges - tougher macro conditions, as rates have rallied and the DXY has strengthened, and significant selling pressure from traders closing their GBTC arbitrage positions, as well as the FTX bankruptcy estate selling off assets. Spot ETF flows since inception indicate an aggregate net inflow of around$1.2 billion, comprised of approximately$4 billion in inflows offset by a substantial$2.8 billion in outflows from GBTC. A report from Coindesk this morning states that FTX has fully divested its GBTC stake worth nearly$1 billion. Assuming this report is accurate, the major selling pressure from GBTC should be coming to an end.
Flash Insight attachment
 
This is a great visual representation of why I don’t think the difference between 39k and 34-36k bitcoin matters all that much. Three cycles over the course of a decade, all with the same pattern into halving- up, down, chop then repeat. We are in the chop, you can see what always comes next.

 
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This is a great visual representation of why I don’t think the difference between 39k and 34-36k bitcoin matters all that much. Three cycles over the course of a decade, all with the same pattern into halving- up, down, chop then repeat. We are in the chop, you can see what always comes next.

Effective chart, thanks for posting. Being a little greedy on the price decline, but will buy more soon.

SOL down to $83. Ug, I may need to dust off my old COIN account.
 
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I use chain specific wallets. Phantom for $sol and Xverse for $btc. Using the Coinbase wallet would seem preferable than just keeping it on Coinbase.
Serious question, do you think keeping crypto just on Coinbase is okay? The beauty about Fidelity is if someone happens, they have the resources to make it right. If Coinbase goes down (highly unlikely) I assume everything on the exchange is lost, right?

Happy with Fidelity, but it is limited to BTC and ETH (no announcements that anything else is coming soon). Thinking about dusting off my COIN account for a few modest alt plays, including your precious SOL. LOL!
 
Serious question, do you think keeping crypto just on Coinbase is okay? The beauty about Fidelity is if someone happens, they have the resources to make it right. If Coinbase goes down (highly unlikely) I assume everything on the exchange is lost, right?

Happy with Fidelity, but it is limited to BTC and ETH (no announcements that anything else is coming soon). Thinking about dusting off my COIN account for a few modest alt plays, including your precious SOL. LOL!
You’re beyond savvy enough to manage your own wallet. No reason to leave it on an exchange in my opinion.
 
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You’re beyond savvy enough to manage your own wallet. No reason to leave it on an exchange in my opinion.
+1
I’ll check out Coinbase wallet first and go from there. I’m happy with my BTC and ETH positions (will continue to add) but it’s time to branch out a bit prior to the halfing.
 
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