Being retired now (and my part-time consulting work is all from home), I still haven't broken out the jeans yet - will likely need to on Friday, though.
OT: Busiest Time of the Tropical Season - Hurricane Iota slams Nicaragua w/155 mph winds
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Models are showing a little more strengthening than before with Zeta now possibly reaching 80-85 mph while in the GOM and still being 75 mph at landfall; the center of the forecast track is still centered on SE LA. Nobody is forecasting this to be a catastrophic storm, but there will be some surge, wind damage, and power outages and there will likely be some scattered small tornadoes east of the track.
Impacts in our area are still likely to be 1-2" rains Thursday into Friday and some gusty conditions (30-40 mph gusts, especially at the coast). Saturday is a lock for gorgeous, cool/dry football weather though.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.5N 88.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 90.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 28.9N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents
We now have hurricane Zeta with 80 mph winds, as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula, which was just slammed by Delta. Zeta should weaken a bit, but regain Cat 1 hurricane strength in the GOM tomorrow and then will likely come ashore in SE Louisiana late Wednesday evening as a Cat 1 hurricane. We're only 2 days out now and the models have come into better agreement, so the track cone has narrowed and it runs from central LA to the far NW tip of FL. With increasing wind shear and cooler surface temps in the GOM now vs. Aug/Sept, strengthening is unlikely (with weakening more likely near landfall).
As always, areas to the east of the storm track will bear the brunt of the surge/wind damage and will see the most tornadoes, but fortunately, this storm is a fast mover with strong high pressure to the east and a strong trough (low pressure) to the NW of the track, steering the storm quickly up from the northern GOM to our area in under 2 days. This means rainfall should be <5" just about everywhere, which is generally tolerable in most of the SE US. The rainfall and storm surge maps are below and the 4-6' storm surge area is significant, but should not be catastrophic (for the vast majority).
No change for us: the remnants will combine with the trough/storm in the southern Plains to bring us 1-2" of rain Thursday into Friday and some breezy/gusty winds (30-40 mph gusts), but not damaging winds. Could also be a bit of snow in the Poconos, far NW NJ and the Hudson Valley early Friday, but not likely to be impactful (1" or so on colder surfaces). Will be a gorgeous, cool/dry day for football on Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Last edited:
We now have hurricane Zeta with 80 mph winds, as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula, which was just slammed by Delta. Zeta should weaken a bit, but regain Cat 1 hurricane strength in the GOM tomorrow and then will likely come ashore in SE Louisiana late Wednesday evening as a Cat 1 hurricane. We're only 2 days out now and the models have come into better agreement, so the track cone has narrowed and it runs from central LA to the far NW tip of FL. With increasing wind shear and cooler surface temps in the GOM now vs. Aug/Sept, strengthening is unlikely (with weakening more likely near landfall).
As always, areas to the east of the storm track will bear the brunt of the surge/wind damage and will see the most tornadoes, but fortunately, this storm is a fast mover with strong high pressure to the east and a strong trough (low pressure) to the NW of the track, steering the storm quickly up from the northern GOM to our area in under 2 days. This means rainfall should be <5" just about everywhere, which is generally tolerable in most of the SE US. The rainfall and storm surge maps are below and the 4-6' storm surge area is significant, but should not be catastrophic (for the vast majority).
No change for us: the remnants will combine with the trough/storm in the southern Plains to bring us 1-2" of rain Thursday into Friday and some breezy/gusty winds (30-40 mph gusts), but not damaging winds. Could also be a bit of snow in the Poconos, far NW NJ and the Hudson Valley early Friday, but not likely to be impactful (1" or so on colder surfaces). Will be a gorgeous, cool/dry day for football on Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Only a few minor changes. Zeta weakened a bit to 65 mph, as expected, after crossing the tip of the Yucatan today, but is still expected to strengthen back to about an 80 mph Cat 1 hurricane tonight/tomorrow before landfall Weds late afternoon in SE Louisiana, with 75-80 mph winds and with the center of the track right around Port Fourchon about 60 miles S of New Orleans, which will end up being 10-20 miles west of the storm track as the storm will be heading NNE by then.
Far SE LA and the coast of MS, to the east of the storm's track, will most likely be hardest hit with 4-6' (and locally up to 8') surge and hurricane force wind gusts, as well as scattered tornadoes. No real change in the rainfall forecast with this fast moving storm, with widespread 3-5" rainfall amounts within 100 miles of the coast and 2-4" amounts everywhere else along/near the track inland. The rainfall and surge forecasts are at the link below and the track graphic is below.
No change for us, either. Expect 1-2" of rain for most (maybe up to 3" south of 195) on Thursday into Friday with some gusty winds, especially at the coast (30-40 mph gusts). And maybe some snow early Friday in the Poconos/NWNJ/Hudson Valley at the higher elevations (most will melt, but could be up to an inch in some places); could even be some mood flakes down to 78.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211240.shtml?cone#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Last edited:
Only a few minor changes. Zeta weakened a bit to 65 mph, as expected, after crossing the tip of the Yucatan today, but is still expected to strengthen back to about an 80 mph Cat 1 hurricane tonight/tomorrow before landfall Weds late afternoon in SE Louisiana, with 75-80 mph winds and with the center of the track right around Port Fourchon about 60 miles S of New Orleans, which will end up being 10-20 miles west of the storm track as the storm will be heading NNE by then.
Far SE LA and the coast of MS, to the east of the storm's track, will most likely be hardest hit with 4-6' (and locally up to 8') surge and hurricane force wind gusts, as well as scattered tornadoes. No real change in the rainfall forecast with this fast moving storm, with widespread 3-5" rainfall amounts within 100 miles of the coast and 2-4" amounts everywhere else along/near the track inland. The rainfall and surge forecasts are at the link below and the track graphic is below.
No change for us, either. Expect 1-2" of rain for most (maybe up to 3" south of 195) on Thursday into Friday with some gusty winds, especially at the coast (30-40 mph gusts). And maybe some snow early Friday in the Poconos/NWNJ/Hudson Valley at the higher elevations (most will melt, but could be up to an inch in some places); could even be some mood flakes down to 78.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211240.shtml?cone#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Wow, big surprise intensification the last 6 hours as Zeta is now up to 110 mph winds (was expected to be around 80 mph at landfall even as of this morning) as it makes landfall in SE LA near Cocodrie about 10-15 miles west of where it was expected last night (which was Port Fourchon) and about 65 miles SSE of New Orleans. This means more wind damage and storm surge with up to 7-11 feet of surge in SE LA and Alabama. Late surprise strengthening is the worst case scenario. No real change in rainfall forecasts and still the risk of scattered tornadoes to the east of the track.
Still looks like 1-2" of rain for most of us, but 2-4" south of 276/195 and especially towards far SNJ/DelMarVA, where wind gusts could be 40-50 mph (probably 25-35 mph in CNJ). And maybe some snow far NW areas early Friday (but little to no accumulation).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/212029.shtml?cone#contents
Bwahaaa the weather channel over dramatic weathercasters strike agaim Paul Goodloe standing there struggling to stand up and a 100lb girl and guy walking behind him.....the girl jumping up and down. You cant make this up
Last edited:
There were 50-60 mph gusts and gusts can be quite different even just 10-20 feet away in a city. In Zeta's wake we had 6 deaths, widespread wind/surge damage, and 2.6 million who lost power. Was a pretty serious storm.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...uisiana-mississippi-alabama-georgia-carolinas
And now we have Tropical Storm Eta, the season's 28th named storm tying 2005's record for most in a tropical season and we still have a month to go. Eta was just named and is expected to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane before slamming into Nicaragua in a few days. Hurricanes there often do incredible damage via flooding and mudslides in the mountainous areas (poverty doesn't help). The storm is unlikely to impact the US (not a lock though).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025007.shtml?cone#contents
And we just had Super Typhoon Goni make landfall in the Philippines with 195 mph winds, the 2nd strongest landfalling system ever (after 2013's Haiyan which also made landfall in the Philippines). I'm sure the damage is catastrophic - Haiyan killed 6500. The storm is expected to go south of Manila with much weaker winds by then.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...super-typhoon-goni-philippines-vietnam-haiyan
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025007.shtml?cone#contents
And we just had Super Typhoon Goni make landfall in the Philippines with 195 mph winds, the 2nd strongest landfalling system ever (after 2013's Haiyan which also made landfall in the Philippines). I'm sure the damage is catastrophic - Haiyan killed 6500. The storm is expected to go south of Manila with much weaker winds by then.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...super-typhoon-goni-philippines-vietnam-haiyan
Eta seriously blew up today, from 70 mph at 1 am to 130 mph as of 4 pm today and is about 18 hours from landfall in Nicaragua (not far from the border with Honduras) tomorrow morning, with winds forecast to be up to 150 mph, which is a strong Cat 4 hurricane. And it's going to be moving slowly, which is the worst case scenario for catastrophic impacts.
I fear we might see thousands perish in Central America, given 12-18 feet of storm surge combined with 1-2 feet of rain (and up to 3 feet in the mountainous regions, where mudslides will be common), plus catastrophic winds, impacting an area with widespread poor construction and poverty. Hurricane Mitch hit in a similar location in 1998 and was not as strong and 11,000 people died, the 2nd deadliest Atlantic Basin hurricane ever.
After meandering for the next 5 days over Central America, Eta's forecast is very uncertain, but some models show the remnant depression emerging back into the northern Caribbean and then either heading into the Gulf or into Cuba and towards Florida. Too far off and too much uncertainty to worry about, but in this crazy year, an eventual US impact cannot be ruled out; by the way, after landfall in Honduras, Mitch eventually made a south Florida landfall as a tropical storm 7 days later). Eta becomes the 12th hurricane of the season, tied with 2nd all-time with two other seasons, behind 2005's 15 hurricanes.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205343.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-02-hurricane-eta-mitch-1998-thousands-killed
After devastating Nicaragua with catastrophic surge/winds/rain and parts of other Central American countries with torrential flooding rains, Eta did reemerge into the Caribbean, then crossed Cuba and is now a strong tropical storm (65 mph) about 100 miles south of Miami. However, its forecast track is an odd one as it's forecast to head west over the Keys and then mostly north towards Florida's Gulf Coast, with landfall anywhere from Fort Myers to Panama City, but with the center of the forecast track hitting a bit north of Tampa, as a strong TS.
Eta might regain minimal Cat 1 status while over the GOM, but is likely to weaken a bit before its 4th landfall. Impacts are unlikely to be more than modest anywhere in Florida with winds unlikely to be even hurricane force, but there could be localized damage and flooding, especially the next few days in south FL, where 5-8" of rain could fall (which is not as impactful there as elsewhere).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/082057.shtml?
Eta might regain minimal Cat 1 status while over the GOM, but is likely to weaken a bit before its 4th landfall. Impacts are unlikely to be more than modest anywhere in Florida with winds unlikely to be even hurricane force, but there could be localized damage and flooding, especially the next few days in south FL, where 5-8" of rain could fall (which is not as impactful there as elsewhere).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/082057.shtml?
Well, i live on the beach in FLL- so can say Eta was windy and super rainy but other than flooding in lower lying areas (which was very bad)- the rest of most was spared.
Yep, 29, a new record, beating 2005. Crazy season. Luckily Theta is no risk to anyone. Eta is now looking like it will slowly meander towards the FL Panhandle area, possibly making landfall on Sunday, but with shear/dry air the storm is expected to be a weak TS by then (40-50 mph winds).
probably...80% chance of formation in 5 days and heading in the general area of Nicaragua, which does not need another tropical system after zeta...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
We now have tropical storm Iota, the 30th named storm of the season, and unfortunately, it's forecast to become a Cat 2/3 hurricane and it's forecast to make landfall in 2-3 days in almost the exact same spot where Eta made landfall in Nicaragua as a Cat 4 just 12 days ago (forecast for both, 2-3 days out are below, for comparison). Worst case scenario for those folks.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/175901.shtml?cone#contents
We now have tropical storm Iota, the 30th named storm of the season, and unfortunately, it's forecast to become a Cat 2/3 hurricane and it's forecast to make landfall in 2-3 days in almost the exact same spot where Eta made landfall in Nicaragua as a Cat 4 just 12 days ago (forecast for both, 2-3 days out are below, for comparison). Worst case scenario for those folks.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/175901.shtml?cone#contents
Iota continued to blow up the last couple of days, reaching Cat 5 strength with 160 mph winds today and the storm just made landfall with 155 mph winds (highest winds for a Cat 4 storm) very close to where Eta made landfall in Nicaragua a few weeks ago, also as a Cat 4 storm. I can't even imagine the devastation being visited upon these folks with two catastrophic hurricanes in less than 2 weeks. Wind damage, storm surge and torrential rains are going to be just horrible in Nicaragua and at least the rains will be very heavy in Honduras, also. This storm is forecast to dissipate in the rugged terrain of Central America.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ricane-iota-forecast-landfall-central-america
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/170348.shtml?
Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1045 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250
km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto
Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.
Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25
km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier
this month on November 3rd.
SUMMARY OF 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES
Wow I can’t imagine how they are going to be impacted from two storms of that magnitude back to back. Our news outlets barely mention it. Is there any precedent for two storms hitting so close in time in the same location?
Just this year, Laura and Delta (Cat4 and Cat 2) made landfalls within about 10 miles of each other in SW LA, about 6 weeks apart. As far as I know the "record" was in 2004, when both Jeanne and Francis made landfall within 2 miles of each other in Vero Beach (where my dad lived through them), just 3 weeks apart. Iota made landfall about 15 miles south of where Eta did 2 weeks ago.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/weather/hurricane-iota-tuesday/index.html
