OT: Busiest Time of the Tropical Season - Hurricane Iota slams Nicaragua w/155 mph winds
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
No idea actually - wish they'd just start with A again. I think some of it is the expectation that late season storms won't be as memorable and it happens infrequently, but obviously, this storm is about to be pretty memorable.
Well I am a firm believer that if I can think of something.. many people have as well.. especially people intimately involved... maybe they make a change.
That idea.. I use it all the time with software and aps.. if I can think.. wouldn't if be great if there was (a program or feature) that did this.. it already exists.. so go find it.
Same here - I've sent more than a few emails to the NHC/NWS on improving their web sites, lol. They do ask for feedback though.
Fortunately for Cancun and the Yucatan Peninsula, Delta weakened a bit more and is now a 120 mph Cat 3 hurricane as it nears landfall at the tip of the peninsula in a few hours. Delta is then forecast to intensify a bit as it crosses the GOM and is expected to be a 115-120 mph Cat 3 as it makes landfall, with the center of the forecast track still in central Louisiana Friday night, although maybe 20 miles further west. The Euro still shows Delta making landfall in far western LA, close to where Laura struck, so everywhere from the TX/LA border to SE LA needs to still be on alert.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/055232.shtml?cone#contents
Fortunately for Cancun and the Yucatan Peninsula, Delta weakened a bit more and is now a 120 mph Cat 3 hurricane as it nears landfall at the tip of the peninsula in a few hours. Delta is then forecast to intensify a bit as it crosses the GOM and is expected to be a 115-120 mph Cat 3 as it makes landfall, with the center of the forecast track still in central Louisiana Friday night, although maybe 20 miles further west. The Euro still shows Delta making landfall in far western LA, close to where Laura struck, so everywhere from the TX/LA border to SE LA needs to still be on alert.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/055232.shtml?cone#contents
After hammering Cancun and the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning with 110 mph winds (fortunately down from 145 mph yesterday), Delta has emerged into the GOM even weaker with winds down to 85 mph, well below forecasts. However, the models and the NHC all expect some strengthening over the next 24-36 hours, with the forecast for the storm to regain Cat 3 strength of ~115 mph by then, but then weakening a bit before landfall to a Cat 2 with 105-110 mph winds. Given the surprising ups and downs with intensity for this storm all along, we'll just have to see if those winds verify.
The track forecast has been pretty solid, so far, and the track forecast is essentially unchanged since this morning with the storm expected to make landfall Friday afternoon somewhere along the LA coast between the slightly inland cities of Lake Charles and Lafayette, with the center of the track currently forecast to strike around the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge (which is "good" for most, since that area is very sparsely populated). All of the major models now show landfall within that spread of Lake Charles to Lafayette, which is very tight clustering 48-60 hours out (the models ran off of 7 am EST data today).
All the usual risks are in play: storm surge (7-11 feet just east of the track), high winds, heavy rain (4-8" for the coast and inland - fortunately, this is a fast mover, so we shouldn't see more than 10" anywhere), tornadoes east of the track, etc. Impacts in our area will be limited to some beneficial rains (1-2") Sunday/Monday. The good news is that, in hindsight, New Orleans had dodged a whole six-shooter's worth of bullets this season, as it's been in the forecast cone five times this season, but has been barely impacted.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 22.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235840.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/07/hurricane-delta-mexico-louisiana/
Why do we keep rebuilding New Orleans? The swamps want their land back... give it up already. Move the damn city somewhere it won't be in a bowl.
I’ve been cutting you a break, @RU848789 with my “new event, new thread” rules but I might be going to LA if needed.
So give me the poop on Ms. Delta.
So give me the poop on Ms. Delta.
Not sure what you want to know that wasn't in my post or some of the links. Are you being deployed down there and, if so, do you know where you're going to be and when? The good thing is that, unless you're pretty close to the storm when it hits or are in the NE quadrant, where small tornadoes can spin up, this will be a quick mover, so you might not see the worst conditions.
The 11 pm advisory had no major track or intensity changes - still looking like a 100-110 mph storm at landfall somewhere in the Lake Charles to Lafeyette region. That intensity number is likely on the high side, as weakening could be more significant than forecast, but intensity is really hard to predict well, so who knows. The track hasn't wavered much in awhile, so that should be pretty solid.
I don’t know yet.
We were asked if we could provide an Incident Management Team (IMT) to help out if needed. Part of our IMT is already in California for the fires so the rest of us were told to stand by for this.
And it would be after the fact not during.
Not much change in the big picture: still expecting a strong cat 2 hurricane (105-110 mph range) to make landfall tomorrow late afternoon/early evening in SW LA. However, the track was nudged about 15-20 miles west, which may not sound like much, but that puts the center of the forecast track only about 10 miles east of Cameron, LA, where Cat 4 Laura made landfall back in August, so if this track verifies, areas like Cameron and Lake Charles are likely to get hit pretty hard again, at least with winds and rain (surge shouldn't be too high still being west of the track). Areas to the east of the track, like Grand Chenier to Marsh Island that were ravaged by a 15-20 foot surge in Laura, will likely be hit by a 7-11 foot surge with Delta (still pretty bad). Pretty busy right now, so will try to do a full update after the 5 pm NHC report.After hammering Cancun and the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning with 110 mph winds (fortunately down from 145 mph yesterday), Delta has emerged into the GOM even weaker with winds down to 85 mph, well below forecasts. However, the models and the NHC all expect some strengthening over the next 24-36 hours, with the forecast for the storm to regain Cat 3 strength of ~115 mph by then, but then weakening a bit before landfall to a Cat 2 with 105-110 mph winds. Given the surprising ups and downs with intensity for this storm all along, we'll just have to see if those winds verify.
The track forecast has been pretty solid, so far, and the track forecast is essentially unchanged since this morning with the storm expected to make landfall Friday afternoon somewhere along the LA coast between the slightly inland cities of Lake Charles and Lafayette, with the center of the track currently forecast to strike around the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge (which is "good" for most, since that area is very sparsely populated). All of the major models now show landfall within that spread of Lake Charles to Lafayette, which is very tight clustering 48-60 hours out (the models ran off of 7 am EST data today).
All the usual risks are in play: storm surge (7-11 feet just east of the track), high winds, heavy rain (4-8" for the coast and inland - fortunately, this is a fast mover, so we shouldn't see more than 10" anywhere), tornadoes east of the track, etc. Impacts in our area will be limited to some beneficial rains (1-2") Sunday/Monday. The good news is that, in hindsight, New Orleans had dodged a whole six-shooter's worth of bullets this season, as it's been in the forecast cone five times this season, but has been barely impacted.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 22.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235840.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/07/hurricane-delta-mexico-louisiana/
After hammering Cancun and the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning with 110 mph winds (fortunately down from 145 mph yesterday), Delta has emerged into the GOM even weaker with winds down to 85 mph, well below forecasts. However, the models and the NHC all expect some strengthening over the next 24-36 hours, with the forecast for the storm to regain Cat 3 strength of ~115 mph by then, but then weakening a bit before landfall to a Cat 2 with 105-110 mph winds. Given the surprising ups and downs with intensity for this storm all along, we'll just have to see if those winds verify.
The track forecast has been pretty solid, so far, and the track forecast is essentially unchanged since this morning with the storm expected to make landfall Friday afternoon somewhere along the LA coast between the slightly inland cities of Lake Charles and Lafayette, with the center of the track currently forecast to strike around the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge (which is "good" for most, since that area is very sparsely populated). All of the major models now show landfall within that spread of Lake Charles to Lafayette, which is very tight clustering 48-60 hours out (the models ran off of 7 am EST data today).
All the usual risks are in play: storm surge (7-11 feet just east of the track), high winds, heavy rain (4-8" for the coast and inland - fortunately, this is a fast mover, so we shouldn't see more than 10" anywhere), tornadoes east of the track, etc. Impacts in our area will be limited to some beneficial rains (1-2") Sunday/Monday. The good news is that, in hindsight, New Orleans had dodged a whole six-shooter's worth of bullets this season, as it's been in the forecast cone five times this season, but has been barely impacted.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 22.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235840.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/07/hurricane-delta-mexico-louisiana/
Well, as feared and predicted, Delta has restrengthened into a Cat 3 hurricane with 115 mph, on its way to 125 mph by late tonight, which makes sense given that the pressure dropped from 959 mbar at 5 pm to 956 mbar at 8 pm (no wind strength change yet, but those often lag pressure drops). Hopefully, though, winds will be back down to 115-120 mph at landfall in the 4-8 pm timeframe tomorrow, but that's still Cat 3 (but moderately weaker than the 145 mph Laura that hit in this same area in August). The predicted weakening could be even more, as Delta will be traveling over slightly cooler than normal waters, with a bit higher shear before landfall.
The center of the forecast track has consistently been in SW LA for quite awhile, although it was nudged 15-20 miles west with the 11 am update and the models that came out after that haven't deviated too much from that track, so the forecast is for landfall about 10-15 miles east of Cameron, LA, where Laura made landfall, but that's still more than close enough to put that area and Lake Charles into the western eyewall of the storm, so that same area could really be hit hard, since so much of the area hasn't fully recovered yet (with tarps still over countless roofs).
Storm surge will be major and life-threatening east of the storm for quite a ways, as per the map (7-11 feet of surge area) and lesser surges are forecast west of the track and much further east, but still enough to do some damage. Winds will obviously be impactful at/near the coast, with some damage likely and many downed trees/power lines, so outages will be widespread. As usual, small tornadoes will be a risk in the NE quadrant and flooding rainfall is likely with 6-10" along/near the coast and 4-8" amounts over a large area inland in LA (and a bit of AK/MS). Fortunately, the storm will be moving quickly enough to not drop catastrophic rainfall amounts as were seen for Laura and Sally. Impacts in our area will be some well-needed rain (1-2") Sunday/Monday, as the remnants of the storm interact with an approaching trough.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211641.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53821-major-hurricane-delta/page/24/
I believe so (bottom right of graphic) 110+ mph winds.
Does the “M” stand for major?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
I get that part.
But why the letter M?
H for hurricane, S for storm and D for depression.
A "major" hurricane is one that's Cat 3, 4 or 5, so they give it an M; the "H" refers to a Cat 1/2 hurricane. I've asked them a few times to at least put the sustained winds on the forecast track graphic (I'd also like to see and latitude/longitude), so one doesn't have to refer back to the discussion table of forecast data, plus not everyone has memorized the Saffir-Simpson scale. No luck yet, lol.
My 2 Sister's and 1 BIL moved back to above Baton Rouge from Fla to escape the Hurricanes in Fla.
He is now complaining "why did we move !", this is # 3 since the move.
They moved from Gulfport Miss (Katrina) to Baton Rouge then Fla (4 different places....he's crazy) than back to Red Stick.
They are now hunkered down again...
He is now complaining "why did we move !", this is # 3 since the move.
They moved from Gulfport Miss (Katrina) to Baton Rouge then Fla (4 different places....he's crazy) than back to Red Stick.
They are now hunkered down again...
Well, as feared and predicted, Delta has restrengthened into a Cat 3 hurricane with 115 mph, on its way to 125 mph by late tonight, which makes sense given that the pressure dropped from 959 mbar at 5 pm to 956 mbar at 8 pm (no wind strength change yet, but those often lag pressure drops). Hopefully, though, winds will be back down to 115-120 mph at landfall in the 4-8 pm timeframe tomorrow, but that's still Cat 3 (but moderately weaker than the 145 mph Laura that hit in this same area in August). The predicted weakening could be even more, as Delta will be traveling over slightly cooler than normal waters, with a bit higher shear before landfall.
The center of the forecast track has consistently been in SW LA for quite awhile, although it was nudged 15-20 miles west with the 11 am update and the models that came out after that haven't deviated too much from that track, so the forecast is for landfall about 10-15 miles east of Cameron, LA, where Laura made landfall, but that's still more than close enough to put that area and Lake Charles into the western eyewall of the storm, so that same area could really be hit hard, since so much of the area hasn't fully recovered yet (with tarps still over countless roofs).
Storm surge will be major and life-threatening east of the storm for quite a ways, as per the map (7-11 feet of surge area) and lesser surges are forecast west of the track and much further east, but still enough to do some damage. Winds will obviously be impactful at/near the coast, with some damage likely and many downed trees/power lines, so outages will be widespread. As usual, small tornadoes will be a risk in the NE quadrant and flooding rainfall is likely with 6-10" along/near the coast and 4-8" amounts over a large area inland in LA (and a bit of AK/MS). Fortunately, the storm will be moving quickly enough to not drop catastrophic rainfall amounts as were seen for Laura and Sally. Impacts in our area will be some well-needed rain (1-2") Sunday/Monday, as the remnants of the storm interact with an approaching trough.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211641.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53821-major-hurricane-delta/page/24/
Very little change in the forecast for Delta, which has been one of the best this season, as we've had a few storms where the forecasts were pretty far off even 2-3 days out - not this time. Delta has weakened slightly to 110 mph (highest cat 2 level as cat 3 starts at 111 mph) and should likely weaken a bit more over the next several hours before landfall around 5-6 pm, given a bit more shear and cooler GOM water temps in the far northern Gulf. Might "only" be ~100 mph at landfall.
The NHC track forecast ticked very slightly westward by maybe 5 miles, which puts landfall about 10 miles east of Cameron, where Laura struck. No significant change in the surge (7-11' east of the center) or rainfall predictions (6-10" near the track and 4-6" amounts further from the track (including inland all he way up to AK/W MS). We might see 1-2" of rain from Sunday night through Tuesday with the remnants and its interactions with a trough - we need the rain.
By the way, the track forecast error has been superb all the way for this storm vs. typical errors at each 24 hour point before landfall. The actual error was 150 miles at 120 hours out (vs. 172 miles, typically), 100 miles at 96 hrs (vs. 133 miles typically), 50 miles at 72 hrs (vs. 96miles, typically), and only 20 miles at 48 hrs (vs. 65 miles, typically) and <10 miles at 24 hrs (vs. 37 miles, typically). This all assumes Delta will make landfall within about 5 miles of where it's now forecast to, which is almost a certainty.
Also, this is the 4th named storm to make landfall in LA in the same season, only the 2nd time that has happened (2002 was the other), although 3 named systems have hit LA 7 times before. And 2 storms having landfall in the same season within 10 or so miles of each other is pretty rare, although in 2004, both Jeanne and Francis made landfall within 2 miles of each other in Vero Beach (where my dad lived through them), just 3 weeks apart.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 28.0N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/151039.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53821-major-hurricane-delta/page/26/
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Landfall is imminent, as the northern eyewall, with 100 mph winds, is now ashore between Grand Chenier and Creole, about 15 miles east of Cameron. Storm surge of 7+ feet have already been reported (7-11' was forecast) and many gusts in the 75+ mph range have been observed - we'll see how close we get to 100 mph with gusts (which are always a bit less than over water, due to frictional effects).
Edit - a 96 mph gust was recorded at Lake Arthur, about 20 miles inland, so I'm sure 100 mph gusts are being felt at the coast, but perhaps simply not being recorded with very few people living there (and no instruments).
Edit - a 96 mph gust was recorded at Lake Arthur, about 20 miles inland, so I'm sure 100 mph gusts are being felt at the coast, but perhaps simply not being recorded with very few people living there (and no instruments).
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In Little Rock we are getting steady rains, not hard, but steady, and winds generally 15-20 mph right now.
When Katrina went thru everything East of NO was toast for 50 miles. My Sister's house and Mom's townhouse were untouched. Just East of Gulfport.
They sold the house in a week for cash; $ 50 over ask. (4 BR)
They sold the townhouse a week later for cash; $ 25 over ask. (2 BR)
TS Epsilon was born this morning and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the next few days, but should head north, well east of Bermuda, and then become a fish storm (into the North Atlantic). 26th named storm of the season, just two short of tying 2005's record of 28 named systems. And the very high seasonal forecasts are looking pretty good this year.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205049.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205049.shtml?cone#contents
Hurricane Epsilon is headed NE into the North Atlantic, but the bad news is TD-28 formed earlier today in the western Caribbean and was just named TS Zeta minutes ago and is forecast to - you guessed it - become a Cat 1 hurricane threatening Lousiana/MS/AL in about 4 days. This is the 27th named storm of the season, just one behind 2005's record of 28.
If it strikes LA (the center of the forecast track goes right over New Orleans, but still 4-5 days out, so much can change, as happened for a couple of earlier storms that looked like they might hit NO at 4-5 days out), that would be a record 5th landfall in LA in one season. Those folks don't need it, even if it's just mostly a heavy rainstorm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents
If it strikes LA (the center of the forecast track goes right over New Orleans, but still 4-5 days out, so much can change, as happened for a couple of earlier storms that looked like they might hit NO at 4-5 days out), that would be a record 5th landfall in LA in one season. Those folks don't need it, even if it's just mostly a heavy rainstorm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents
Hurricane Epsilon is headed NE into the North Atlantic, but the bad news is TD-28 formed earlier today in the western Caribbean and was just named TS Zeta minutes ago and is forecast to - you guessed it - become a Cat 1 hurricane threatening Lousiana/MS/AL in about 4 days. This is the 27th named storm of the season, just one behind 2005's record of 28.
If it strikes LA (the center of the forecast track goes right over New Orleans, but still 4-5 days out, so much can change, as happened for a couple of earlier storms that looked like they might hit NO at 4-5 days out), that would be a record 5th landfall in LA in one season. Those folks don't need it, even if it's just mostly a heavy rainstorm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents
Very little change in the forecast, which likely means the New Orleans area might actually have some impacts from this storm, although fortunately the models are still not predicting rapid intensification and the storm is expected to only be a minimal Cat 1 (~75 mph) at landfall somewhere in LA/MS/AL (or even far NW FL) on Wednesday, with the center of the forecast track still bringing it ashore just south of NO and heading over the Crescent City. Also, models are all over the place on this one, so a LA landfall is not a given.
The storm may even weaken before landfall with increased shear being likely and with lower than normal oceanic heat content in the northern GOM. But still, some modest storm surge and wind damage are likely, as is some heavy rain (3-5", but probably not catastrophic rainfall amounts, as the storm will be a quick mover) and some scattered small tornadoes. The remnants of the storm will combine with another low and an approaching trough to likely give us some decent rains (1-2") Thursday into Friday, but will not impact the game; could even see a few snowflakes in the Poconos.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Surprised no hyping of flakes flying in northwest possibly on Friday on what should be our first winter feel day of the season
Ugh. Get those plows sharpened buddy lol.
It can't snow. I've worn nothing but shorts since May 1 and refuse to wear anything else before Nov 1.
No shirts? Was chilly in these parts yesterday. Had the firepit going in the backyard.
Didn't know but I did notice it was empty when I passed by early Friday evening. Thought it was strange.
same with me, today will be the first day Im not wearing shorts at work, it was a fun ride while it lasted
I mentioned flakes last night, although I never hype. Could be an inch or more north of 84 early on Friday but little south of there, except maybe some slush in the higher elevations of the southern Poconos/Sussex County (and possibly a few mood flakes as far S as 78). Could also easily be nada, as counting on the cold air to rush in fast enough on the back end of a storm is not always wise.
Very little change in the forecast, which likely means the New Orleans area might actually have some impacts from this storm, although fortunately the models are still not predicting rapid intensification and the storm is expected to only be a minimal Cat 1 (~75 mph) at landfall somewhere in LA/MS/AL (or even far NW FL) on Wednesday, with the center of the forecast track still bringing it ashore just south of NO and heading over the Crescent City. Also, models are all over the place on this one, so a LA landfall is not a given.
The storm may even weaken before landfall with increased shear being likely and with lower than normal oceanic heat content in the northern GOM. But still, some modest storm surge and wind damage are likely, as is some heavy rain (3-5", but probably not catastrophic rainfall amounts, as the storm will be a quick mover) and some scattered small tornadoes. The remnants of the storm will combine with another low and an approaching trough to likely give us some decent rains (1-2") Thursday into Friday, but will not impact the game; could even see a few snowflakes in the Poconos.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Models are showing a little more strengthening than before with Zeta now possibly reaching 80-85 mph while in the GOM and still being 75 mph at landfall; the center of the forecast track is still centered on SE LA. Nobody is forecasting this to be a catastrophic storm, but there will be some surge, wind damage, and power outages and there will likely be some scattered small tornadoes east of the track.
Impacts in our area are still likely to be 1-2" rains Thursday into Friday and some gusty conditions (30-40 mph gusts, especially at the coast). Saturday is a lock for gorgeous, cool/dry football weather though.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.5N 88.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 90.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 28.9N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
