OT: Busiest Time of the Tropical Season - Hurricane Iota slams Nicaragua w/155 mph winds

[RU848789]

@RU848789 not sure if you saw this.

No missed it...you can almost always find answers to questions like this in the NHC discussions - basically, building high pressure to the NW/N of the storm with counterclockwise flow will send it to the SW.

Did you see my question on the graphics being "lost" (the dreaded red X's) after awhile on this site, even when using imgur? Any thoughts?

Remnants of Leslie Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward
motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is
forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north
of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and
then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the
building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from
the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Did you see my question on the graphics being "lost" (the dreaded red X's) after awhile on this site, even when using imgur? Any thoughts?

Yes, I replied to that:

This sometimes happens with imgur where they can't handle hot linking, it usually resolves itself.

 

[RU848789]

Yes, I replied to that:

Thanks, missed it. Seems so random - still some red X's, but I don't recall if it's on the same graphics...

 

[DJ Spanky]

Thanks, missed it. Seems so random - still some red X's, but I don't recall if it's on the same graphics...

As I said, it usually resolves itself. I've had it happen to me on occasion.

 

[charliem24]

@#s... do you think there’s any threat to the NC coast over the next 7 days? Leaving for a week and have to decide if i need to make any preparations before leaving. Thanks in advance if you get a chance to respond, and alway appreciate your weather threads regardless.

 

[DJ Spanky]

No missed it...you can almost always find answers to questions like this in the NHC discussions - basically, building high pressure to the NW/N of the storm with counterclockwise flow will send it to the SW.

Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward
motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is
forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north
of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and
then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the
building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from
the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance.

Yeah, I usually don't dig into that, especially this week where I've been hammered at work, which is why I asked.

 

[RU848789]

Yeah, I usually don't dig into that, especially this week where I've been hammered at work, which is why I asked.

No problem - might want to focus more on getting hammered at home, lol. Damn, would've been a second gorgeous gameday in a row today. This sucks.

 

[DJ Spanky]

No problem - might want to focus more on getting hammered at home, lol. Damn, would've been a second gorgeous gameday in a row today. This sucks.

I know, we were having burgers for dinner last night and I cracked my first Octoberfest of the season - damn it reminded me of tailgating!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I know, we were having burgers for dinner last night and I cracked my first Octoberfest of the season - damn it reminded me of tailgating!

Don't tell me Sam Adams

 

[DJ Spanky]

Don't tell me Sam Adams

Okay, I won't.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Okay, I won't.

😃

Just bustin, I saw it in the drinking thread that you got it.

🍻

 

[RU848789]

😃

Just bustin, I saw it in the drinking thread that you got it.

🍻

PBR baby!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

PBR baby!

I'd pound it if offered at a tailgate

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

Red Flags today all over Jersey Shore. This video is at low tide this morning in SSH

 

[RU848789]

I know, we were having burgers for dinner last night and I cracked my first Octoberfest of the season - damn it reminded me of tailgating!

Have been feeling the exact same way, especially since, post-COVID, we eat home all the time (some takeout, but we still eat it at home), including a ton more BBQ-ing than we used to, especially since we discovererd how good meats from our local butcher are (I just never knew, lol). So your post inspired my what do you miss thread I just posted...

 

[RU848789]

@#s... do you think there’s any threat to the NC coast over the next 7 days? Leaving for a week and have to decide if i need to make any preparations before leaving. Thanks in advance if you get a chance to respond, and alway appreciate your weather threads regardless.

Thanks. Don't see any tropical threats to NC over the next 7 days, apart from heavy surf/riptides from Paulette for the next few days. TD-20, even if it was aimed that way, wouldn't get there for 9-10 days, so you should be good. Tomorrow is probably the worst day of the week, with Monday improving, while Tuesday through Thursday look great and Fri/Sat could be ok, but could have a couple of showers. Enjoy!

 

[RU848789]

Sally was named this afternoon, by the way, and folks along the northern Gulf, especially in LA/MS/AL (and New Orleans) really need to watch this one closely, as the forecast keeps showing a stronger storm (as do some models). We also now have tropical depression #20 and soon to be Teddy not far off the coast of Africa.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 25.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[charliem24]

Thanks. Don't see any tropical threats to NC over the next 7 days, apart from heavy surf/riptides from Paulette for the next few days. TD-20, even if it was aimed that way, wouldn't get there for 9-10 days, so you should be good. Tomorrow is probably the worst day of the week, with Monday improving, while Tuesday through Thursday look great and Fri/Sat could be ok, but could have a couple of showers. Enjoy!

Thank you, saves me lots of needless grunt work.

 

[RU848789]

Sally was named this afternoon, by the way, and folks along the northern Gulf, especially in LA/MS/AL (and New Orleans) really need to watch this one closely, as the forecast keeps showing a stronger storm (as do some models). We also now have tropical depression #20 and soon to be Teddy not far off the coast of Africa.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 25.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Ok, it's time to start seriously worrying about TS Sally, as it's now forecast to be a strong Cat 1 hurricane (90-95 mph) at landfall in in SE Louisiana sometime late Monday night to very early Tuesday morning, probably just SW of New Orleans, which is the worst case for NO, putting them on the stronger NE side, especially with regard to storm surge, which could be 7-11 feet in much of SE LA and in MS and 4-7 feet outside of that area, especially in AL and for Lake Ponchatrain. This is not expected to have anywhere near Katrina surge, so NO ought to be ok from a surge perspective given the improvement to the levees and pumping systems since Katrina. However outside of NO, 7-11 feet along the coast will lead to life-threatening conditions.

The other big risk is torrential flooding rains of 10-15" along much of the AL/MS/LA coastal areas, with widespread 5-10" rainfall amounts in inland LA/MS/AL and the FL panhandle, as the storm will be moving quite slowly approaching and after landfall. Much of the SE US has had well above normal rainfall, whiich will exacerbate flooding concerns. Plus there's the usual risk of tornadoes in the NE quadrant of the storm. For those wondering, Sally is likely to have low to no impact on our area, as it's remnants are forecast to pass to our south - could be some rain by late Thursday/Friday, especially in SNJ, if Sally slows down.

With regard to all of the other systems in the Atlantic Basin, here's a quick summary:

• Paulette is now a hurricane (80 mph) and is a major threat to Bermuda, with a potential landfall after sunrise on Monday with 105-110 mph winds being forecast (strong Cat 2, with Cat 3 being possible, i.e., >110 mph); fortunately, Bermuda is very well prepared for hurricanes for obvious reasons. Paula is supposed to then recurve NE and only affect the east coast with heavy surf and riptides from now through the next few days.
• Rene is now a tropical depression and should dissipate in the central Atlantic over the next couple of days.
• The strong tropical wave that came off the African coast a few days ago is now a tropical depression and should become TS Teddy today. Fortunately, the latest models show Teddy curving to the NW and missing the Lesser Antilles, which is fortunate, as Teddy is expected to strengthen into a Cat 2/3 storm in 3-5 days. Long-term models indicate that the storm should recurve to the NE and not be a threat to the US. We can use the break.
• The tropical wave that came off the African coast yesterday is now W of the Cape Verde islands has moderate chance of becoming a named system over the next 2-3 days, but even if a TS forms, it's expected to be sheared apart soon after that.

National Hurricane Center

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

 

[BigEastPhil]

Flooding east of New Orleans primarily into Mississippi is going to be awful. Forecast is for 1-2 feet of rain. Hints of this occurred in Florida yesterday prior to the storm strengthening.

Storm is also very slow moving thus the high rainfall totals expected.

And of course storm surge.

This storm is going to be bad.

 

[RU848789]

Sally has strengthened into a 90 mph hurricane from 60 mph as of 5 am this morning and the model runs have slowed the storm down and moved the forecast track east by a good 50 miles, so that there might not even be a landfall in far SE LA (which means New Orleans would be spared a direct hit), but instead a landfall somewhere in MS/AL late Tuesday or even early Wednesday (if the Euro is right). A slowdown like this could bring catastrophic storm surges to the MS/AL coasts and 10-20" rains to coastal LA/MS/AL/FL and even 5-10" rains well inland, especially in AL. Current forecast is for Sally to be at 105 mph at landfall, which is close to Cat 3, and the storm could strengthen even further with such slow movement over very warm waters. Will be interesting to see the full 5 pm advisory, in light of the latest model runs...

 

[T2Kplus10]

Thank you, saves me lots of needless grunt work.

👎 Please don't encourage him.

 

[RUPsyched]

This post is probably too far down the list to be read, but here goes.

Louisiana is the Wile E. Coyote of States. They allow their corporations to pollute like crazy all for the elusive tax dollar. In return, they get hammered by these storms and hurricanes almost every year.

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

P

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

Please stay out and Stay alive...Ocean is just nasty right now..Went on numerous rescues today on a bunch of towns in Ocean County Swimmer in Lavallette unfortunately lost his life today Very sad

 

[RU848789]

Ok, it's time to start seriously worrying about TS Sally, as it's now forecast to be a strong Cat 1 hurricane (90-95 mph) at landfall in in SE Louisiana sometime late Monday night to very early Tuesday morning, probably just SW of New Orleans, which is the worst case for NO, putting them on the stronger NE side, especially with regard to storm surge, which could be 7-11 feet in much of SE LA and in MS and 4-7 feet outside of that area, especially in AL and for Lake Ponchatrain. This is not expected to have anywhere near Katrina surge, so NO ought to be ok from a surge perspective given the improvement to the levees and pumping systems since Katrina. However outside of NO, 7-11 feet along the coast will lead to life-threatening conditions.

The other big risk is torrential flooding rains of 10-15" along much of the AL/MS/LA coastal areas, with widespread 5-10" rainfall amounts in inland LA/MS/AL and the FL panhandle, as the storm will be moving quite slowly approaching and after landfall. Much of the SE US has had well above normal rainfall, whiich will exacerbate flooding concerns. Plus there's the usual risk of tornadoes in the NE quadrant of the storm. For those wondering, Sally is likely to have low to no impact on our area, as it's remnants are forecast to pass to our south - could be some rain by late Thursday/Friday, especially in SNJ, if Sally slows down.

With regard to all of the other systems in the Atlantic Basin, here's a quick summary:

• Paulette is now a hurricane (80 mph) and is a major threat to Bermuda, with a potential landfall after sunrise on Monday with 105-110 mph winds being forecast (strong Cat 2, with Cat 3 being possible, i.e., >110 mph); fortunately, Bermuda is very well prepared for hurricanes for obvious reasons. Paula is supposed to then recurve NE and only affect the east coast with heavy surf and riptides from now through the next few days.
• Rene is now a tropical depression and should dissipate in the central Atlantic over the next couple of days.
• The strong tropical wave that came off the African coast a few days ago is now a tropical depression and should become TS Teddy today. Fortunately, the latest models show Teddy curving to the NW and missing the Lesser Antilles, which is fortunate, as Teddy is expected to strengthen into a Cat 2/3 storm in 3-5 days. Long-term models indicate that the storm should recurve to the NE and not be a threat to the US. We can use the break.
• The tropical wave that came off the African coast yesterday is now W of the Cape Verde islands has moderate chance of becoming a named system over the next 2-3 days, but even if a TS forms, it's expected to be sheared apart soon after that.

National Hurricane Center

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Sally has strengthened into a 90 mph hurricane from 60 mph as of 5 am this morning and the model runs have slowed the storm down and moved the forecast track east by a good 50 miles, so that there might not even be a landfall in far SE LA (which means New Orleans would be spared a direct hit), but instead a landfall somewhere in MS/AL late Tuesday or even early Wednesday (if the Euro is right). A slowdown like this could bring catastrophic storm surges to the MS/AL coasts and 10-20" rains to coastal LA/MS/AL/FL and even 5-10" rains well inland, especially in AL. Current forecast is for Sally to be at 105 mph at landfall, which is close to Cat 3, and the storm could strengthen even further with such slow movement over very warm waters. Will be interesting to see the full 5 pm advisory, in light of the latest model runs...

Unfortunately, as feared, Hurricane Sally has strengthened further since 11 am, with winds now 100 mph (Cat 2) and as expected, based on the models, the NHC nudged Sally's track about 20 miles further east and slowed it down further, meaning surge, winds and flooding rains are even greater threats now. The center of the NHC track now has Sally coming ashore as an almost Cat 3 hurricane with 110 mph winds (Cat 3 starts at 111 mph and 120 mph is not out of the question), right along the MS/AL border very early Wednesday morning (and that could even be delayed by 12+ hours with the storm just crawling at that point). The only positive for this track is that New Orleans will likely be spared hurricane conditions and major surge/rains, but those are simply being moved east and coastal MS/AL and the western FL panhandle are going to be hammered by this storm.

With regard to storm surge, they haven't really moved the worst surge east much since this morning, reflecting the track. It surprises me with a MS/AL landfall that the surge east of there in AL (6-9' to Mobile Bay and only 4-7' from there to the AL/FL border) and even extreme NW FL (only 2-4') isn't greater than to the west of the storm in SE LA and SW MS (7-11'). Maybe that's because of the slow approach, which will have east to west winds for many hours as the storm crawls to the east of those SE LA/W MS locations where the 7-11 surges are predicted - maybe there are also topographical features in play here. Surge forecast for Lake Ponchatrain was reduced to 3-5 feet, which shouldn't be an issue for New Orleans. This is still not expected to have anywhere near Katrina's surge, which was over 25 feet in SE LA/MS for Katrina, but if the storm surprisingly strengthens even more, those storm surge forecasts will need to be increased.

Another big risk is the much higher winds than we were looking at before, especially at landfall, which could be a very slow, prolonged event with with 110+ mph gusts for 12-24 hours for parts of the coast and 80+ mph gusts for areas even 50+ miles inland for 12+ hours. These winds will definitely lead to some damage of structures and many downed trees/power lines, leading to widespead power outages.

The third major risk with this slow moving storm is the torrential flooding rainfall over a huge area and this could end up being the worst impact for most, especially a little bit inland. Forecast rains are now for 10-20" for the MS/AL/NW FL coastal areas to maybe 50-75 miles inland (and extreme SE LA, but only 1-3" for New Orleans, further NW) and for 4-6"/6-10" rains for a huge swath of SE MS and much of AL and into northern GA/NW SC. Flooding will be widespread and catastrophic in spots. This will be exacerbated especially for the interior SE US, which has had well above normal rainfall. And let's not forget the usual risk of tornadoes in the NE quadrant of the storm. For those wondering, Sally is likely to have no impact on our area, as it's remnants are forecast to pass to our south - at worst, could be some showers late Thursday/Friday, especially in far SNJ.

With regard to all of the other systems in the Atlantic Basin, here's a quick summary:

• Paulette scored a direct hit on Bermuda this morning as a strong Cat 1 hurricane (90-95 mph), but fortunately, Bermuda is very well prepared for hurricanes, so damage is likely to be minimal. Paulette is now turning north and then NE, where it will strengthen even more to 105-110 mph winds, before accelerating NE; the east coast is being impacted by heavy surf and riptides.
• Rene is no more, as it dissipated in the central Atlantic.
• The strong tropical wave that came off the African coast a few days ago became TS Teddy last night. Fortunately, the latest models show Teddy curving to the NW and missing the Lesser Antilles, which is fortunate, as Teddy is expected to strengthen into a Cat 3 storm in 3-5 days. Long-term models indicate that the storm should head NNW towards Bermuda in 7-8 days, but is not expected to come close to the US, but we'll need to keep an eye on it.
• The tropical wave that came off the African coast a few days ago is now well NW of the Cape Verde islands and became TS Vicky earlier today, but it's a weak storm (45 mph) and should weaken over the next 2-3 days and then dissipate.

National Hurricane Center

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

 

[charliem24]

👎 Please don't encourage him.

Appreciate the advice, but I think I’ll just continue to decide who I’ll respond to and which posts to like. I never used the ignore button though so may need some help there. Gonna give it a try now, but if I still see your posts, maybe you can give me a hand.

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

Went on numerous water rescues today in Ocean County...Unfortunately a swimmer passed in Lavallette today....Please Stay out and Stay Alive!

 

[newell138]

I have never seen such clean massive waves in NJ like I’m seeing in OC today. 8-10 feet despite what Surfline says at 3-4 feet. Good time to check out any surf cams

Surf Forecast & Wave Cam - New Jersey - Heritage Surf and Sport

View multiple South Jersey surf wave cams, surf forecast from favorite sources like Surfline and Magic Seaweed and surf alerts so you never miss a swell.

www.heritagesurf.com

Gardens Plaza 3rd Skycam II

Live Cam Gardens Plaza 3rd Skycam II in Ocean City NJ.

attheshore.com

 

[RU848789]

Unfortunately, as feared, Hurricane Sally has strengthened further since 11 am, with winds now 100 mph (Cat 2) and as expected, based on the models, the NHC nudged Sally's track about 20 miles further east and slowed it down further, meaning surge, winds and flooding rains are even greater threats now. The center of the NHC track now has Sally coming ashore as an almost Cat 3 hurricane with 110 mph winds (Cat 3 starts at 111 mph and 120 mph is not out of the question), right along the MS/AL border very early Wednesday morning (and that could even be delayed by 12+ hours with the storm just crawling at that point). The only positive for this track is that New Orleans will likely be spared hurricane conditions and major surge/rains, but those are simply being moved east and coastal MS/AL and the western FL panhandle are going to be hammered by this storm.

With regard to storm surge, they haven't really moved the worst surge east much since this morning, reflecting the track. It surprises me with a MS/AL landfall that the surge east of there in AL (6-9' to Mobile Bay and only 4-7' from there to the AL/FL border) and even extreme NW FL (only 2-4') isn't greater than to the west of the storm in SE LA and SW MS (7-11'). Maybe that's because of the slow approach, which will have east to west winds for many hours as the storm crawls to the east of those SE LA/W MS locations where the 7-11 surges are predicted - maybe there are also topographical features in play here. Surge forecast for Lake Ponchatrain was reduced to 3-5 feet, which shouldn't be an issue for New Orleans. This is still not expected to have anywhere near Katrina's surge, which was over 25 feet in SE LA/MS for Katrina, but if the storm surprisingly strengthens even more, those storm surge forecasts will need to be increased.

Another big risk is the much higher winds than we were looking at before, especially at landfall, which could be a very slow, prolonged event with with 110+ mph gusts for 12-24 hours for parts of the coast and 80+ mph gusts for areas even 50+ miles inland for 12+ hours. These winds will definitely lead to some damage of structures and many downed trees/power lines, leading to widespead power outages.

The third major risk with this slow moving storm is the torrential flooding rainfall over a huge area and this could end up being the worst impact for most, especially a little bit inland. Forecast rains are now for 10-20" for the MS/AL/NW FL coastal areas to maybe 50-75 miles inland (and extreme SE LA, but only 1-3" for New Orleans, further NW) and for 4-6"/6-10" rains for a huge swath of SE MS and much of AL and into northern GA/NW SC. Flooding will be widespread and catastrophic in spots. This will be exacerbated especially for the interior SE US, which has had well above normal rainfall. And let's not forget the usual risk of tornadoes in the NE quadrant of the storm. For those wondering, Sally is likely to have no impact on our area, as it's remnants are forecast to pass to our south - at worst, could be some showers late Thursday/Friday, especially in far SNJ.

With regard to all of the other systems in the Atlantic Basin, here's a quick summary:

• Paulette scored a direct hit on Bermuda this morning as a strong Cat 1 hurricane (90-95 mph), but fortunately, Bermuda is very well prepared for hurricanes, so damage is likely to be minimal. Paulette is now turning north and then NE, where it will strengthen even more to 105-110 mph winds, before accelerating NE; the east coast is being impacted by heavy surf and riptides.
• Rene is no more, as it dissipated in the central Atlantic.
• The strong tropical wave that came off the African coast a few days ago became TS Teddy last night. Fortunately, the latest models show Teddy curving to the NW and missing the Lesser Antilles, which is fortunate, as Teddy is expected to strengthen into a Cat 3 storm in 3-5 days. Long-term models indicate that the storm should head NNW towards Bermuda in 7-8 days, but is not expected to come close to the US, but we'll need to keep an eye on it.
• The tropical wave that came off the African coast a few days ago is now well NW of the Cape Verde islands and became TS Vicky earlier today, but it's a weak storm (45 mph) and should weaken over the next 2-3 days and then dissipate.

National Hurricane Center

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Briefly, looks like the Gulf Coast is at least catching a bit of a break as Sally weakened overnight significantly, from 100 mph to 85 mph as of 5 am and remains at 85 mph with the 11 am advisory, which just came out - the storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow around sunrise with 80-85 mph winds near Mobile AL. Storm surge predictions were lowered significantly (mostly in the 3-5'/4-7' range as opposed to 6-9'/7-11' before) - still life-threatening for some areas, but not nearly as bad as the earlier forecasts would have been However, given the still very slow movement of the storm, rainfall forecasts were only reduced slightly, so catastrophic flooding in some locations remains a serious threat and tornadoes are still likely for the NE quadrant; with the winds and isolated tornadoes, tree/power line damage is still likely, so power outages could be extensive.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 29.1N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Paulette is chugging its way NE as a 105 mph hurricane after hammering Bermuda, but will slowly dissipate in the north central Atlantic over the next several day. Teddy is strengthening and is forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane in 3-5 days and is aimed towards Bermuda, but wouldn't reach there for 7 days or so and its track may still change considerably - it's not considered a threat for the US other than heavy surf/riptides starting in 4-5 days. Vicky is about to dissipate in the far eastern Atlantic and another strong wave just came off the African coast and could become Wilfred in several days; it could eventually threaten the Caribbean in 8-10 days if it continues to move westward (very high uncertainty on that though).

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Mobile right in the path

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

That's crazy as it's not even that bad yet...

 

[fg7321]

Briefly, looks like the Gulf Coast is at least catching a bit of a break as Sally weakened overnight significantly, from 100 mph to 85 mph as of 5 am and remains at 85 mph with the 11 am advisory, which just came out - the storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow around sunrise with 80-85 mph winds near Mobile AL. Storm surge predictions were lowered significantly (mostly in the 3-5'/4-7' range as opposed to 6-9'/7-11' before) - still life-threatening for some areas, but not nearly as bad as the earlier forecasts would have been However, given the still very slow movement of the storm, rainfall forecasts were only reduced slightly, so catastrophic flooding in some locations remains a serious threat and tornadoes are still likely for the NE quadrant; with the winds and isolated tornadoes, tree/power line damage is still likely, so power outages could be extensive.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 29.1N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Paulette is chugging its way NE as a 105 mph hurricane after hammering Bermuda, but will slowly dissipate in the north central Atlantic over the next several day. Teddy is strengthening and is forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane in 3-5 days and is aimed towards Bermuda, but wouldn't reach there for 7 days or so and its track may still change considerably - it's not considered a threat for the US other than heavy surf/riptides starting in 4-5 days. Vicky is about to dissipate in the far eastern Atlantic and another strong wave just came off the African coast and could become Wilfred in several days; it could eventually threaten the Caribbean in 8-10 days if it continues to move westward (very high uncertainty on that though).

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Are we getting any rain from this storm? we are parched here in Monmouth Cty

 

[BigEastPhil]

Hurricane Teddy : One model has Teddy forecasted as major hurricane - category 3 - to hit Bermuda and then to hit east coast in Nova Scotia / New Foundland area

Long way off for sure but bears watching.

 

[RU Diesel07110]

That's crazy as it's not even that bad yet...

Got an email from our condo Assoc in perdido key florida they’re expecting record rainfall Due to how slow the storm is moving and looks like a direct hit expecting the eye at 10:30 tonite.

 

[newell138]

Mobile right in the path

Mobile not so mobile

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

Got an email from our condo Assoc in perdido key florida they’re expecting record rainfall Due to how slow the storm is moving and looks like a direct hit expecting the eye at 10:30 tonite.

yesterday was 2 years to the day since Florence hit...... same issue - very slow moving...very heavy rains... wish everyone the best!

funny - i just saw this!

 

[RU848789]

Briefly, looks like the Gulf Coast is at least catching a bit of a break as Sally weakened overnight significantly, from 100 mph to 85 mph as of 5 am and remains at 85 mph with the 11 am advisory, which just came out - the storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow around sunrise with 80-85 mph winds near Mobile AL. Storm surge predictions were lowered significantly (mostly in the 3-5'/4-7' range as opposed to 6-9'/7-11' before) - still life-threatening for some areas, but not nearly as bad as the earlier forecasts would have been However, given the still very slow movement of the storm, rainfall forecasts were only reduced slightly, so catastrophic flooding in some locations remains a serious threat and tornadoes are still likely for the NE quadrant; with the winds and isolated tornadoes, tree/power line damage is still likely, so power outages could be extensive.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 29.1N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Paulette is chugging its way NE as a 105 mph hurricane after hammering Bermuda, but will slowly dissipate in the north central Atlantic over the next several day. Teddy is strengthening and is forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane in 3-5 days and is aimed towards Bermuda, but wouldn't reach there for 7 days or so and its track may still change considerably - it's not considered a threat for the US other than heavy surf/riptides starting in 4-5 days. Vicky is about to dissipate in the far eastern Atlantic and another strong wave just came off the African coast and could become Wilfred in several days; it could eventually threaten the Caribbean in 8-10 days if it continues to move westward (very high uncertainty on that though).

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Unfortunately, Sally is now blowing up at the last minute with with the eye having just closed off and winds increasing from 80 mph at 5 pm to 105 mph as of a special 2 am update. Storm is still moving very slowly (2-3 mph) with the center of the eye only 30 miles offshore, but still has ~8 hours over water before landfall around Gulf Shores AL, just 15-20 miles east of Mobile and just ~20 miles west of Pensacola and could strengthen just a bit more. Note that with a 30 mile wide eye, the eyewall will very likely stretch from Mobile Bay on the west to just about Pensacola on the east. This could lead to increased storm surges back to where they were 30 hours ago, i.e., back up to 6-9' for the area from Mobile to just east of Pensacola, instead of the current 4-6'.

Hurricane Milton Update Statement

www.nhc.noaa.gov

000
WTNT64 KNHC 160555
TCUAT4

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT
SHORTLY...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h).

Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to
update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

 

[knightfan7]

Unfortunately, Sally is now blowing up at the last minute with with the eye having just closed off and winds increasing from 80 mph at 5 pm to 105 mph as of a special 2 am update. Storm is still moving very slowly (2-3 mph) with the center of the eye only 30 miles offshore, but still has ~8 hours over water before landfall around Gulf Shores AL, just 15-20 miles east of Mobile and just ~20 miles west of Pensacola and could strengthen just a bit more. Note that with a 30 mile wide eye, the eyewall will very likely stretch from Mobile Bay on the west to just about Pensacola on the east. This could lead to increased storm surges back to where they were 30 hours ago, i.e., back up to 6-9' for the area from Mobile to just east of Pensacola, instead of the current 4-6'.

Hurricane Milton Update Statement

www.nhc.noaa.gov

000
WTNT64 KNHC 160555
TCUAT4

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT
SHORTLY...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h).

Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to
update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

A few models have it looping south after it crosses the Carolina coast and one that WU shows has it hitting Fla a 2nd time?