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OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

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As I've said many times, I do not believe the virus was manmade or accidentally released and I doubt it's worth rehashing why other than to say that most virologists still believe that SARS-CoV-2 evolved naturally, like every other virus in the history of viruses. But the Chinese have contributed to the conspiracy theories on them being responsible in some way, by not being transparent. My belief is they weren't transparent because they didn't want anyone knowing how harsh their lockdowns were and how many people were likely killed in Wuhan (10-20K or more, not the 3000 "official" deaths) or how early the first cases were.

For the latter failure, that would place major blame on them for not giving the world much more of a heads up and while I doubt there's any way the pandemic could've been contained in China (it's just too transmissible), knowing a month earlier could've resulted in getting vaccines a month earlier, perhaps at least saving a few hundred thousand lives, worldwide. Hopefully the WHO team can actually find an intermediate host or a closer "relative" on the evolutionary chain in bats, but no matter what, because of that lack of transparency, some % will always believe that China was responsible.
Ha Ha you are definitely a comedian as well as a “ scientist” . You are adept at covering up the nonsense about China. There are more and more convinced that China covered up this virus and how it came about. You now say “ some % believe”. And you are hoping the WHO will clear this up? But this could have saved a few hundred thousand lives? You categorically claimed China did a good job and it was Trump who caused the issue. This closer relative you are “ hoping” the WHO will find after 15 months of doing zilch is going to be found ? Of course this was transmitted animal to human we all know that. The WHO will do and say whatever China wants them to say. You know that the world knows that. Oh the animal to human transmission came from the “ bamboo rat”.
 
As I've said many times, I do not believe the virus was manmade or accidentally released and I doubt it's worth rehashing why other than to say that most virologists still believe that SARS-CoV-2 evolved naturally, like every other virus in the history of viruses. But the Chinese have contributed to the conspiracy theories on them being responsible in some way, by not being transparent. My belief is they weren't transparent because they didn't want anyone knowing how harsh their lockdowns were and how many people were likely killed in Wuhan (10-20K or more, not the 3000 "official" deaths) or how early the first cases were.

For the latter failure, that would place major blame on them for not giving the world much more of a heads up and while I doubt there's any way the pandemic could've been contained in China (it's just too transmissible), knowing a month earlier could've resulted in getting vaccines a month earlier, perhaps at least saving a few hundred thousand lives, worldwide. Hopefully the WHO team can actually find an intermediate host or a closer "relative" on the evolutionary chain in bats, but no matter what, because of that lack of transparency, some % will always believe that China was responsible.


wow just wow
 
Well if you are 87 thats not so appealing
tom1944 if you tell me today we can expect to live until age 87 I ‘ll accept that. Perhaps we may not want to be here another 17 years especially how the world is In 2021. Most of us if we reach upper 80’s and 90+ probably are aware that you have beaten the odds and that is a victory no matter what. To navigate through all of life’s issues and still be here . The question is “ will you know you’re still here”. 😎🪓🪓🪓🪓
 
tom1944 if you tell me today we can expect to live until age 87 I ‘ll accept that. Perhaps we may not want to be here another 17 years especially how the world is In 2021. Most of us if we reach upper 80’s and 90+ probably are aware that you have beaten the odds and that is a victory no matter what. To navigate through all of life’s issues and still be here . The question is “ will you know you’re still here”. 😎🪓🪓🪓🪓

If I have my parents genes and luck. Both will turn 88 in 2021 and both are doing great
 
As I've said many times, I do not believe the virus was manmade or accidentally released and I doubt it's worth rehashing why other than to say that most virologists still believe that SARS-CoV-2 evolved naturally, like every other virus in the history of viruses. But the Chinese have contributed to the conspiracy theories on them being responsible in some way, by not being transparent. My belief is they weren't transparent because they didn't want anyone knowing how harsh their lockdowns were and how many people were likely killed in Wuhan (10-20K or more, not the 3000 "official" deaths) or how early the first cases were.

For the latter failure, that would place major blame on them for not giving the world much more of a heads up and while I doubt there's any way the pandemic could've been contained in China (it's just too transmissible), knowing a month earlier could've resulted in getting vaccines a month earlier, perhaps at least saving a few hundred thousand lives, worldwide. Hopefully the WHO team can actually find an intermediate host or a closer "relative" on the evolutionary chain in bats, but no matter what, because of that lack of transparency, some % will always believe that China was responsible.

Higher level people I know who work at Merck and worked at Merck believe it is man made.
 
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Ha Ha you are definitely a comedian as well as a “ scientist” . You are adept at covering up the nonsense about China. There are more and more convinced that China covered up this virus and how it came about. You now say “ some % believe”. And you are hoping the WHO will clear this up? But this could have saved a few hundred thousand lives? You categorically claimed China did a good job and it was Trump who caused the issue. This closer relative you are “ hoping” the WHO will find after 15 months of doing zilch is going to be found ? Of course this was transmitted animal to human we all know that. The WHO will do and say whatever China wants them to say. You know that the world knows that. Oh the animal to human transmission came from the “ bamboo rat”.
Your next accurate post will be your first. I've been critical of China's lack of transparency/cover-up of COVID details since at least March, as per the two posts below. But, yeah, by far the biggest reason the US has done so poorly compared to what should have been expected, being the "best prepared country" for a pandemic, was absolutely inept and counterproductive leadership at the Federal level, especially by the POTUS.

I also didn't say I had a high degree of confidence that the WHO would find out anything useful. I said I "hoped" they would, as odds are pretty low over a year later, but it's at least a step in the right direction. The WHO have made numerous missteps during this pandemic, but unlike the conspiracy theory folks, my opinion is that this was due to a combination of incompetence and institutional inertia, especially on masks, as large scientific organizations are often slow to change their opinions.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/china-exonerates-dr-li.192812/post-4460326

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.191275/post-4507069
 
If I have my parents genes and luck. Both will turn 88 in 2021 and both are doing great
Well tom1944 that is a great thing and it proves couples can find success and love and longevity with a little as well. Many studies on this though I’m sure we will hear from others here how dumb that thinking is. Like from a guy I once worked with ... married 5 times and all were the woman’s fault. Ok Joe if you say so. His other interesting quote was “ it’s easier each time”. So I celebrate your parents and wish my wife and I can continue to journey to the age of 87. Mazel tov.
 
Higher level people I know who work at Merck and worked at Merck believe it is man made.
I guarantee you I know (directly or indirectly) the highest level people at Merck in virology, as I've said before, since a good friend/colleague of mine is a VP in that area (I had one vaccine project about 8 years ago, which we worked closely together on, back when we were at about the same level), and we've talked about this topic (and others) and he said almost everyone there believes the most likely scientific explanation, i.e., that it's not man-made. It's essentially impossibe to "prove" the negative, i.e., that it didn't come from a lab, hence people will continue to believe that no matter what.
 
Your next accurate post will be your first. I've been critical of China's lack of transparency/cover-up of COVID details since at least March, as per the two posts below. But, yeah, by far the biggest reason the US has done so poorly compared to what should have been expected, being the "best prepared country" for a pandemic, was absolutely inept and counterproductive leadership at the Federal level, especially by the POTUS.

I also didn't say I had a high degree of confidence that the WHO would find out anything useful. I said I "hoped" they would, as odds are pretty low over a year later, but it's at least a step in the right direction. The WHO have made numerous missteps during this pandemic, but unlike the conspiracy theory folks, my opinion is that this was due to a combination of incompetence and institutional inertia, especially on masks, as large scientific organizations are often slow to change their opinions.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/china-exonerates-dr-li.192812/post-4460326

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.191275/post-4507069
You are so full of $&$)t ... you defended the WHO did you not? You in many posts defended the WHO and China and laid the blame on Trump... you are part of the “lies and hypocrisy” . Oh Leonard or is it Sheldon ? I can’t wait for when it’s May - June and we’re still fiddling as we lack enough vaccines . Another call you made about ... “ end of February or March.” It ‘ s going to be very sad for too many. You are such a self centered , self righteous person. You continue to call out people and yet all you have done is regurgitate articles posted by others. You use the guise of doing this for all on here but admit it Leonard : It really is about YOU . It’s ok I’m not on here to agree with you . Some of us here just don’t swallow the pablum you feed us.
 
I guarantee you I know (directly or indirectly) the highest level people at Merck in virology, as I've said before, since a good friend/colleague of mine is a VP in that area (I had one vaccine project about 8 years ago, which we worked closely together on, back when we were at about the same level), and we've talked about this topic (and others) and he said almost everyone there believes the most likely scientific explanation, i.e., that it's not man-made. It's essentially impossibe to "prove" the negative, i.e., that it didn't come from a lab, hence people will continue to believe that no matter what.
There’s the issue Numbers “ almost everyone believes “ and so , we see there are probably many more scientist at many other research facilities who are diametrically opposed to that theory. But I called you out because by defending the WHO going back you hitched your wagon to the CCP and that is exactly what you did.
 
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I guarantee you I know (directly or indirectly) the highest level people at Merck in virology, as I've said before, since a good friend/colleague of mine is a VP in that area (I had one vaccine project about 8 years ago, which we worked closely together on, back when we were at about the same level), and we've talked about this topic (and others) and he said almost everyone there believes the most likely scientific explanation, i.e., that it's not man-made. It's essentially impossibe to "prove" the negative, i.e., that it didn't come from a lab, hence people will continue to believe that no matter what.
Absolutely, one has the choice of what to believe with most scientists saying it’s wild. It’s possible it was accidentally released from a lab and also wild. One will never know that either at this point. But the idea that China would make the virus and intentionally unleash on the world is too far fetched for me. They would suffer economically and they would not be able to control mutations. It’s suicidal. But as you say, people will choose to believe what they want or at least a lot of people apparently.
 
I guarantee you I know (directly or indirectly) the highest level people at Merck in virology, as I've said before, since a good friend/colleague of mine is a VP in that area (I had one vaccine project about 8 years ago, which we worked closely together on, back when we were at about the same level), and we've talked about this topic (and others) and he said almost everyone there believes the most likely scientific explanation, i.e., that it's not man-made. It's essentially impossibe to "prove" the negative, i.e., that it didn't come from a lab, hence people will continue to believe that no matter what.
The only way to really debunk it is scientifically. I don't know if there's been genetic analysis and comparison of COVID-19 vs. other corona viruses. It's not hard to understand where the key deviations are, and while it's not quite exact, you could statistically model the probabilities that those deltas were natural mutations. It's less exact, but you could also compare those deviations to common genes or genetic inserts / splices that are frequently employed.

EDIT: #s, important clarification... your MRK contacts "think" it was naturally developed or have analyzed it and come to that conclusion? It's a very big difference (and I'm not being critical of you here by any means)
 
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Absolutely, one has the choice of what to believe with most scientists saying it’s wild. It’s possible it was accidentally released from a lab and also wild. One will never know that either at this point. But the idea that China would make the virus and intentionally unleash on the world is too far fetched for me. They would suffer economically and they would not be able to control mutations. It’s suicidal. But as you say, people will choose to believe what they want or at least a lot of people apparently.
Wait big guy you are talking about the CCP not Mother Teresa and her cloister of nuns... are you just book learned? You always sounded logical with a bit of an ego but to think them not capable. JHC they used to drown the newborn girls in the Yangtze River . You are ok with them and how they control , subjugate and enslave ? I doubt that you are . Point is there are any number of regimes that would love to decimate the free world even if it meant killing some of their own in the process. Your thinking process is skewed and literally gave them a free pass . You didn’t give many others the respect to disagree and still don’t. That says more about you than continuously telling me and others our opinions are not up to your standards . We question and we should still question and attempt to understand why there is doubt in all of this since day one.
 
Well they’ve solved it again. Thx

I guarantee you I know (directly or indirectly) the highest level people at Merck in virology, as I've said before, since a good friend/colleague of mine is a VP in that area (I had one vaccine project about 8 years ago, which we worked closely together on, back when we were at about the same level), and we've talked about this topic (and others) and he said almost everyone there believes the most likely scientific explanation, i.e., that it's not man-made. It's essentially impossibe to "prove" the negative, i.e., that it didn't come from a lab, hence people will continue to believe that no matter what.


Ok,

So, what can I tell you. The people I know and trust at Merck and J&J tell me differently.

Maybe your guy is wrong.
 
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Absolutely, one has the choice of what to believe with most scientists saying it’s wild. It’s possible it was accidentally released from a lab and also wild. One will never know that either at this point. But the idea that China would make the virus and intentionally unleash on the world is too far fetched for me. They would suffer economically and they would not be able to control mutations. It’s suicidal. But as you say, people will choose to believe what they want or at least a lot of people apparently.

The events of the past week reveal that conspiracy nuts are very real and totally unhinged. Other than enforcing actions against them when they cross a clear line (legal or otherwise), my take is it is best to avoid engaging with them whenever possible.
 
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The events of the past week reveal that conspiracy nuts are very real and totally unhinged. Other than enforcing actions against them when they cross a clear line (legal or otherwise), my take is it is best to avoid engaging with them whenever possible.
The events of the past week reveal that conspiracy nuts are very real and totally unhinged. Other than enforcing actions against them when they cross a clear line (legal or otherwise), my take is it is best to avoid engaging with them whenever possible.
China is gonna CCP China . Any civilization that kills their newborn daughters ( not males ) and continues to enslave their own people today, while shipping others out to the boonies for religious reason should always be in question. If you wish to believe the China is ok nonsense and then spout about “ legal or otherwise” needs to take a step back off the ledge. FWIW you joined the conversation by your choice no one drug your ass into to the posting.
 
Always interesting to see who posts in response to a message calling out conspiracy nuts. Not exactly surprising, but interesting to see nonetheless.
You answered your own statement . I’m not condoning conspiracy theory . You can attempt to twist the facts sweetie ....all sides are guilty so go back in your hole and when you are better then try to antagonize .
 
You answered your own statement . I’m not condoning conspiracy theory . You can attempt to twist the facts sweetie ....all sides are guilty so go back in your hole and when you are better then try to antagonize .

Bob, there is perhaps no more delusional, conspiracy nut on this board than you. Telling that you‘ve responded to a statement I made to another poster about conspiracy nuts. Not surprising you're too limited to see understand how you e outed yourself. You are too easy. Can’t wait to read your next rant.
 
Bob, there is perhaps no more delusional, conspiracy nut on this board than you. Telling that you‘ve responded to a statement I made to another poster about conspiracy nuts. Not surprising you're too limited to see understand how you e outed yourself. You are too easy. Can’t wait to read your next rant.
You love attacking don’t you while accusing me as a conspiracy nut . You don’t know me well enough but if you did you might be quite apologetic. I just don’t accept as fact some of the claims you and others make. I don’t apologize for defending what I and others believe to be true . You are riding the left side wave for now . You better enjoy it for within a year or less you may be sorry you placed this next guy and his ilk in the WH . But remember to temper your accusatory statements it cheapens you .
 
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You love attacking don’t you while accusing me as a conspiracy nut . You don’t know me well enough but if you did you might be quite apologetic. I just don’t accept as fact some of the claims you and others make. I don’t apologize for defending what I and others believe to be true . You are riding the left side wave for now . You better enjoy it for within a year or less you may be sorry you placed this next guy and his ilk in the WH . But remember to temper your accusatory statements it cheapens you .

I attacked no one when I responded to pmvon. Simply made a general statement, calling out a group that you felt strongly enough and identify with, to quote and address. If you felt attacked, I suggest you invest in a mirror.
 
I went back to one of the sources who originally told me the virus was man made. He now says he isn't sure.

So, I've just proven I know nothing.
Thanks, I appreciate the comment and I know there a few virologists who think this virus was accidentally released from a lab (extremely few think it was man-made, as that would involve a couple of orders of magnitude of complexity beyond a release, as I've discussed previously - I can dig those posts up if interested), but the vast majority do not. And despite what bac says, I have zero issue admitting when I'm wrong (and/or the sources I've relied on are wrong), as I've done for weather threads many times and on a couple of COVID points since this all started. One of those is convalescent plasma, which I thought would be far more efficacious than it's been shown to be - have a post on that coming up shortly.
 
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Thanks, I appreciate the comment and I know there a few virologists who think this virus was accidentally released from a lab (extremely few think it was man-made, as that would involve a couple of orders of magnitude of complexity beyond a release, as I've discussed previously - I can dig those posts up if interested), but the vast majority do not. And despite what bac says, I have zero issue admitting when I'm wrong (and/or the sources I've relied on are wrong), as I've done for weather threads many times and on a couple of COVID points since this all started. One of those is convalescent plasma, which I thought would be far more efficacious than it's been shown to be - have a post on that coming up shortly.
Cough, cough. Admitting your wrong on the weather thread??? I guess it depends on who is calling you out.
 
So earlier this week the current Federal Government said they would release all the reserved 2nd doses now. Turns out there isn't any in reserve. It just keeps getting worse.
 
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So earlier this week the current Federal Government said they would release all the reserved 2nd doses now. Turns out there isn't any in reserve. It just keeps getting worse.
Saw this earlier today. This is a potential mess. Rollout has been much slower than promised and this would add even more churn to the vaccination program. Reports are conflicting on this though, as HHS has pushed back on the WaPo story, as per CNN. Hard to know what's really going on. I really thought Operation Warp Speed was going to come through better with vaccine distribution, as they seemed to do a pretty good job shepherding vaccine development and manufacturing.

Let's hope the Biden Administration's new plan can fix this mess. Lots to like in the plan (3rd link), but like all plans, the devil is in the details and execution isn't as easy as criticism. Biden shouldn't get any "passes" just because he's not Trump, although the transition has certainly been hampered significantly by the current administration's lack of cooperation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/15/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-reserve-dose/index.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/bid...t-up-covid-vaccine-clinics-across-the-us.html
 
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Convalescent plasma results have been all over the map, as per a bunch of earlier posts and the study you posted and the one below. Other trials showed efficacy in severely ill patients, but CP would seemingly be most likely to work best before the disease becomes severe, which has been the case for the two monoclonal antibody treatments (Regeneron/Lilly). And this looks to have been borne out in some other studies, including this one which came out recently showing high IgG antibody titer CP helped reduce progression to more severe symtoms in mild/moderately ill COVID patients.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2033700?query=featured_home
More mixed results on convalescent plasma. The UK's RECOVERY COVID trial was just halted, as it showed that "standard" convalescent plasma (plasma taken from recovered COVID patients without evaluating its antibody levels and infused into new COVID patients) therapy showed no efficacy or mortality reduction for hospitalized patients in a very large randomized, controlled clinical study involving over 10,000 patients. So the hopes of simple, "standard" CP being a breakthrough for most patients is now essentially over, which is disappointing, as many doctors really thought it had a chance of showing efficacy, as it has in previous infectious disesases (I was pretty jazzed about it too).

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/...patients-hospitalised-with-covid-19?ref=image

However, all is not lost for CP as a treatment, as the trial in the post above did show that high IgG antibody titer plasma (which some recovered patients have) did help reduce progression to more severe symptoms when given early in the disease i.e., prior to hospitalization. In addition, an even more important paper came out yesterday from the folks running the US's emergency use CP program, showing that high IgG antibody titer plasma significantly reduced mortality vs. low IgG antibody titer plasma (a kind of control surrogate) for hospitalized patients (but not those so sick as to be on ventilators). It should be noted that testing antibody levels in plasma is not trivial, but isn't insurmountable either, so we should expect to see its continued use.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2031893#.X_-PyvVHxFY.twitter
 
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I attacked no one when I responded to pmvon. Simply made a general statement, calling out a group that you felt strongly enough and identify with, to quote and address. If you felt attacked, I suggest you invest in a mirror.
No you attacked in an antagonistic way. You criticize me and others yet you are the one who seems to have the need to enter any conversation you feel is “ a conspiracy opinion”. I know exactly what you originally posted to the other pmvon. Guaranteed your only hope was to draw a rise from me. Thankfully I’m blessed to be able to get a rise .😎✌️🪓
 
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