COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Cytokine storm description reminded me of those articles I read with a patient having low oxygen levels but not in any real outward distress. His attending doctor asking him does he think he’s having a cytokine storm lol. Then also the 87 year old prior stroke covid patient being discharged in 3 days. Just crazy the way the virus presents and also the wide range of affects on different people.
Sadly, the NYC death toll increased by 3700 to over 10,000, based on a change in accounting for deaths, as the new deaths are presumed to be COVID-related, based on symptoms/medical history, but never had a confirming positive viral test. I would imagine this is an issue everywhere, as many people, even in hospitals (where most of these presumed COVID-deaths occurred) don't get tests before they die, since the focus is on treating them for COVID and not on a test they know would be positive. I don't think these have been added to any of the major tracking sites, though.
The revised death toll renewed focus on shortcomings in testing that have hamstrung city and state officials since the beginning of the outbreak. A limited number of tests have been available, and until now, only deaths where a person had tested positive were officially counted among those killed by the virus in New York.
But for weeks, the Health Department also had been recording additional deaths tied to the virus, according to two people briefed on the matter. Those cases involved people who were presumed to have been infected because of their symptoms and medical history.
They were not included in the counts given publicly by Mayor Bill de Blasio because no tests had confirmed that the victims had the disease, Covid-19.
Mr. de Blasio decided, after another round of briefings over the weekend, to release the presumptive cases, the people said. Most of the added deaths took place in hospitals, according to the data. Others occurred in nursing homes or other long-term care facilities and in residences.
“In the heat of battle, our primary focus has been on saving lives,” said Freddi Goldstein, the mayor’s press secretary. “As soon as the issue was raised, the mayor immediately moved to release the data.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html
The revised death toll renewed focus on shortcomings in testing that have hamstrung city and state officials since the beginning of the outbreak. A limited number of tests have been available, and until now, only deaths where a person had tested positive were officially counted among those killed by the virus in New York.
But for weeks, the Health Department also had been recording additional deaths tied to the virus, according to two people briefed on the matter. Those cases involved people who were presumed to have been infected because of their symptoms and medical history.
They were not included in the counts given publicly by Mayor Bill de Blasio because no tests had confirmed that the victims had the disease, Covid-19.
Mr. de Blasio decided, after another round of briefings over the weekend, to release the presumptive cases, the people said. Most of the added deaths took place in hospitals, according to the data. Others occurred in nursing homes or other long-term care facilities and in residences.
“In the heat of battle, our primary focus has been on saving lives,” said Freddi Goldstein, the mayor’s press secretary. “As soon as the issue was raised, the mayor immediately moved to release the data.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html
More on China's horrific lies during the early days of the pandemic. Anyone who thinks their numbers are correct is delusional. South Korea has done the best job with this virus of any decent sized country with 207 cases per 1MM (0.2%) and 4 deaths per 1MM. It fails the sniff test that China, where the outbreak started and where there was a massive, uncontrolled outbreak well beyond anything observed in SK, would only have 57 cases per 1MM (0.06%) and only 2 deaths per 1MM, far less than SK's numbers per capita.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/...blic-of-likely-pandemic-for-6-key-days-187614
Even if they did as well as SK, which is highly unlikely, they'd have 300K cases, not the 82K reported and 6600 deaths, not the 3300 reported. Personally, I'd guess they had at least 10X what was reported, i.e., 800K cases (570 per 1MM) and 33,000 deaths (40 per 1MM), which would still be well below those in the US and Europe, which are mostly over 1000 cases per 1MM and 100 deaths per 1MM.
On a "micro" level though, I do think their medical/epidemiology scientific papers are likely reasonable (where they don't touch on government decision-making, which few scientific papers do), as they still need to be peer-reviewed.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
To trust anything the Chinese have said or will say is admittedly stupid. They lied , covered up, withheld information which would have definitely changed the narrative in Europe and most likely
the rest of the world. Then add the blatant incompetent WHO and it would not have mattered who was President or what party was in power in the US. Now the China news wants to place the blame everywhere else. Sadly ,though many in this country know this to be untrue, they will jump on board accepting Chinese lies ...as long as it fits political agendas here at home.
the rest of the world. Then add the blatant incompetent WHO and it would not have mattered who was President or what party was in power in the US. Now the China news wants to place the blame everywhere else. Sadly ,though many in this country know this to be untrue, they will jump on board accepting Chinese lies ...as long as it fits political agendas here at home.
This guy was lucky the progression of the immunosupressive response was halted when it was. As he discussed coughing up black residue, and most likely attributed to neurotic lung, it seems he will have permanent lung damage going forward. I feel the IL-6 inhibitor (Tocilzumab) is a promising therapy. I am hopeful of the trials which are going on now, otherwise we can only point to "success" stories like this one. A co-worker of mine progressed to cytokine storm, was given Tocilzumab and very soon thereafter was intubated. He never worsened once intubated and stayed that way for 6 days, was extubated and has steadily progressed over the last week and a half but is still in the hospital. Another success type story, which hopefully points to the efficacy of IL-6 inhibitors.
See, NYC is dealing with the same issue they had in Wuhan. There, people were dropping dead in the streets, body bags were being dragged out of buildings. Probably none of those were tested and not counted in any official death totals. Many (including myself) believe the true death total in Wuhan is 10-100x what they list. They basically sealed up apartment buildings and left people to fend for themselves. No idea about the rest of China, their numbers outside of Hubei/Wuhan may be relatively accurate since they were pretty strict with enforcing social distancing and stay at home, mask wearing, temperature taking, etc.
What’s the definition of peak? Peak deaths, peak cases, peak hospitalizations?
As you know, I disagree on what happened in the US; however, in the interests of keeping this thread from getting bogged down in arguing over that, maybe we could argue in the thread I started on the CE board on that topic. I'm sure @DJ Spanky would approve. :Wink:
The NYTimes is doing everything it can to make every part of this political. It is a shame. It is a wholly unreadable news source unless you are looking for political opinion or care about what they say they've heard from "sources."
Let's look to Germany for a plan, since they've handled this well so far, are not giving inaccurate information like China, are a comparable country in many ways to the USA, and because it avoids politics. They are reopening some businesses and schools on May 4 with required social distancing. None of this should be controversial or political.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-l...own-to-start-with-schools-on-may-4/a-53127607
Great, so now accounting switches swing the death total. It would be helpful if someone would figure out the increase in deaths in NY in March 2020 v. a typical March. Or April 1-15. Or some time period. That is the only way to get an accurate picture of the damage. Really though, even that will not be so telling. If an 80+ year old sick person was going to die a month later even if Corona never existed, how is that measured?
The "number of deaths" statistic being used leaves a lot to be desired. It has no perspective and now we see accounting can change the number widely.
In the end the total US deaths will be no worse than a typical bad flu year. Now that may very well be due to the social distancing and measures that have been taken, but it makes one wonder whether it was really worth it to shut down the economy.
The models that predicted so many more deaths were way off.
The models that predicted so many more deaths were way off.
Agreed and they still are not saying anything about deaths from the flu so what is the real number and what is the number versus the flu
No idea what the commissioner is talking about. We are clearly past the peak of new daily cases.
But the big difference is you are comparing the number of deaths in a flu YEAR. The numbers for this are what, 4-6 WEEKS?
It wasn't completely clear from her remark, but I thought she was referring to the peak of hospitalizations/icu/vents.
How do you know that?
The number of positive cases reported each day is very closely correlated to the number of tests reported each day. If the number of tests reported go up 15%, the number of positive results go up about 15%. Since the number of tests performed each day has plateaued, the number of new cases reported has also plateaued. But that doesn't mean that the number of infections has plateaued. It just means we aren't doing enough testing.
Not quite. Here's some data on the flu vs. COVID-19. The average flu year is ~35K deaths (2010-2017) over about 5-6 months with the worst year being 51K. We've had <1000 deaths through March 24th and about 25,000 deaths in the last 3 weeks and will very likely have 50K+ deaths over less than 2 months. That is a lot worse than a typical flu year (as are the serious hospitalzation rates).
And the only reason it will likely not be well over 100K, with complete overwhelming of many hospitals in numerous hotspots, is the fairly effective, if late in implementation, testing, quarantining and social distancing put in place by the states. So the models warning of 100-200K deaths being possible were reasonable - and we could still possibly get close to 100K if we open things up everywhere too fast and without better testing/tracing/quarantining systems in place vs. what we have now.
The 1MM+ death estimates early on were likely overestimates, but were possible given data known at the time and no interventions assumed. On the flip side, if we had pursued earlier (by ~2 weeks) aggressive testing, tracing, quarantining and social distancing, we would have almost certainly kept deaths under 5K (on a per capita basis if we had achieved what South Korea did, we'd have <2K deaths).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Yep, we've had 25,000+ deaths in about a month and are still reporting 1,500-2,000 per day.
I'd rather track the number of new and total hospitalizations than the number of "positives" because the latter are definitely a function of testing capacity.
The flip side is that many deaths that were categorized as "influenza" are now known to be from coronavirus, probably more than the other way.
"Flu deaths" are also just based on models. Flu is never on most death certificates. Modelers use "flu related" or "complications of the flu." Lots of things just end-up in the flu bin no matter if they belong there or not. New Hampshire doesn't even consider flu death reportable. Gov. Models are used to predict yearly deaths. If the number goes over the prediction - bingo - the extra deaths go to the flu bin.
Lots of researchers find the flu figures inflated (and not by accident). Few people can even remember a bunch of people dropping dead from the flu the years before shots were sold. Certainly there was nothing on the level of what we've seen with CV (aside from 1918 of course).
Exactly just like cancer while the disease and the cause is not what kills people. The shutting down of organs is what ultimately kills people.
100K total hospitalizations so far and I'm sure that number is low as many who normally would've ended up in a hospital were sent home, due to capacity issues in some hospitals. Again, that would be much greater if not for interventions implemented. Agree on hospitalizations being a better stat than cases, given the limits on testing in most locations.
https://www.newsweek.com/coronaviru...ital-admissions-hospitalized-patients-1497808
Yes, flu deaths are based on models, but the models have been vetted pretty carefully and they're at least run consistently from year to year, so comparisons can be made. I don't know enough about the models to know if they're significantly underpredicting or overpredicting flu deaths and my guess is you don't either. The one thing we can likely all agree on is that even though CV death counts likely won't be perfect (our systems are under great strain, so tracking probably suffers), I'm sure they'll be an actual count and will be at laest somewhat more accurate that flu death estimates from models.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
That is something I have thought about a lot in terms of this virus being here earlier than many thought. Flu season was characterized as being bad this year with high hospital volumes during the height of it. Were they all flu cases? Probably not in hindsight.
NJ reports the hospital census (the total number of Covid + suspected Covid patients currently in the hospital). They do not report the number of new hospitalizations. Over the past 5 days, they have been reporting the number of hospital discharges, so it is possible to estimate the number of new hospitalizations by looking at the change in daily hospitalization census net of discharges and deaths. But the death number only includes confirmed Covid cases, while the hospital census includes suspected Covid cases. And the death number gets reported when the Covid diagnosis is confirmed by reported test result, even if the actual death occurred previously. So we are still somewhat at the mercy of the lag in reporting test results.
Here are the NJ Hospital Census numbers for the past 10 days:
6390, 7017, 7026, 7363, 7570, 7618, 7604, 7781, 8185, 8270.
Here are the NJ "On Ventilator" Census numbers for the past 9 days:
1540, 1576, 1551, 1663, 1650, 1644, 1611, 1626, 1705.
The numbers in red are from the Census taken on Easter Sunday, and these numbers are suspected to be incompte due to gaps in reporting during the holiday.
Can anyone give me a stat on how many hospitalizations there are a year due to flu...heard in the radio 800k plus 2 years ago and 600k last year..is this accurate or not
Does this help (from the NJ Hospital Association):
Based on this, it looks like total flu hospitalizations in NJ were about 2400 last year and 3900 the prior year. That is over the full flu season.
By comparison, yesterday there were about 8300 patients in NJ hospitals with confirmed or suspected Covid infections. There were also another 3000 Covid patients discharged from NJ hospitals over the past 5 days. And another 1200 Covid deaths were reported over the past 5 days in NJ (though not all those deaths occurred in hospitals.)
(The numbers you quote above, look fairly close to the CDC estimates for nationwide. But those CDC estimates seem to be about 6 times too high compared to the the NJ Hospital data -- assuming that the NJ rate of flu infection and hospitalization is not below the national average.)
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Today was the first day of testing using the new saliva test developed at Rutgers. Samples were collected from 184 patients at the Kilmer Inspection Station near Rutgers' Livingston Campus. Testing was limited to First Responders and Middlesex County residents.
Rutgers indicates that they have the capability to analyze 10,000 samples a day. So hopefully the 184 tests performed scales up very quickly.
Rutgers indicates that they have the capability to analyze 10,000 samples a day. So hopefully the 184 tests performed scales up very quickly.
Sure, they'll come in due time. But what's your logic here? You think Chinese scientists (not the government here) designed and executed a randomized trial JUST to show HCQ doesn't work? And an open label one at that (where it's far easier to conceptually doctor the numbers)? Your argument literally makes no sense.
Does this help (from the NJ Hospital Association):
Based on this, it looks like total flu hospitalizations in NJ were about 2400 last year and 3900 the prior year. That is over the full flu season.
By comparison, yesterday there were about 8300 patients in NJ hospitals with confirmed or suspected Covid infections. There were also another 3000 Covid patients discharged from NJ hospitals over the past 5 days. And another 1200 Covid deaths were reported over the past 5 days in NJ (though not all those deaths occurred in hospitals.)
(The numbers you quote above, look fairly close to the CDC estimates for nationwide. But those CDC estimates seem to be about 6 times too high compared to the the NJ Hospital data -- assuming that the NJ rate of flu infection and hospitalization is not below the national average.)
Thanks for this
Do you have the entire country
Nj as the 2nd hardest hit state might not be the best comparison..looking for country wide stats
So there seem to sources indicating that this virus may have escaped from a lab in China from a guy and his girlfriend which spread to the wet markets
I mean when this was suggested here anyone saying this was immediately wacked down and told this didnt happen. Im not saying it did but its not a conspiracy theory either
There are still people here who want to believe anything coming from China...we shouldn't believe anything from them
I mean when this was suggested here anyone saying this was immediately wacked down and told this didnt happen. Im not saying it did but its not a conspiracy theory either
There are still people here who want to believe anything coming from China...we shouldn't believe anything from them
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