COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[rurichdog]

Or a bunch of smart students and scientists from MIT, who have announced the design (and prototype as pictured) of an emergency ventilator that can be built for about $100, centered around ambu-bags, which are manually operated devices that deliver air to patients in emergency situations like cardiac arrest and these are readily available in every hospital. The key is the design of a device that can automate the squeezing of the bag in a programmable fashion to deliver air/oxygen, as needed by the patient without having to have someone manually squeeze the bag every few seconds 24/7. Now this is innovation. Maybe GM can build these.

https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-...ergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/

I could build that with an Arduino and two repurposed RC servo motors.

 

[rurichdog]

I always thought that this is a crazy idea. I have worked in heavy manufacturing my whole life and although I know nothing about ventilators, I would think there is almost zero overlap between the manufacturing of an automobile (at least the work that a GM or Ford plant does) and a medical device. They do not even manufacturer their own A/C compressors. When I first heard the reports that Jaguar was working with the UK, I thought it was just a publicity stunt to make people feel like the UK government was doing something.

There has to be better and closer technologies and manufacturing plants in the US then automakers. I give Tyson a lot of credit for what they are doing but it's not fair to ask why GM can't ramp up to build something they know nothing about when compared to a company that manufacturers multiple types of air moving equipment.

All the well-known vacuum brands in the US market outsourced their production lines to China. There's that foreign dependence on manufacturing issue again...seems to keep cropping up during this crisis.

 

[LC-88]

All the well-known vacuum brands in the US market outsourced their production lines to China. There's that foreign dependence on manufacturing issue again...seems to keep cropping up during this crisis.

we cant compete with factory labor costs, Not even close.

 

[rurichdog]

we cant compete with factory labor costs, Not even close.

Yeah, and we're paying for it now.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

This has to scare everyone
Healthy as can be 30-year old succumbs to CV

https://www.nj.com/highschoolsports...hs-baseball-coach-30-dies-of-coronavirus.html

This contagion is much deadlier and potent than what the govt and experts are saying

RIP Coach

 

[RU848789]

I could build that with an Arduino and two repurposed RC servo motors.

We used to build stuff like that in the lab for some of our experiments, especially those using continuous flow chemistry, where one needed variably controlled flow rates with feedback from downstream (the "patient") to control the flow ("treatment").

 

[Caliknight]

we cant compete with factory labor costs, Not even close.

#unions

 

[RUhasarrived]

naturalnews.com is touting zinc gluconate,picolinate,or acetate as the cure.The problem is finding them online.They're urging that Trump send those to the hospitals.

 

[RU848789]

naturalnews.com is touting zinc gluconate,picolinate,or acetate as the cure.The problem is finding them online.They're urging that Trump send those to the hospitals.

I'd give HCQ or remdesivir a much bigger chance of being at least partially efficacious than supplements.

 

[MulletCork]

Not sure if this has been posted but I saw this today that Middlesex County will be opening a drive thru testing site in Edison this week. Info here:

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/ediso...e-thru-testing-site-in-edison-to-open-april-1

 

[Upstream]

This has to scare everyone
Healthy as can be 30-year old succumbs to CV

https://www.nj.com/highschoolsports...hs-baseball-coach-30-dies-of-coronavirus.html

This contagion is much deadlier and potent than what the govt and experts are saying

RIP Coach

I don't know that the virus is deadlier than previously touted. All along, the data suggested that 2 peope will die out of every 1000 people under age 40 who are infected. And significantly more will be hospitalized.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Bring in the army to help us test everyone

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I don't know that the virus is deadlier than previously touted. All along, the data suggested that 2 peope will die out of every 1000 people under age 40 who are infected. And significantly more will be hospitalized.

Im seeing a lot of similar stories.
It's frightening

 

[rutgersguy1]

From CNN

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported — but it's still deadlier than flu, study says

From CNN's Arman Azad

How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed – but it’s still far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.

When unreported infections aren’t taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports.

That’s because death rates typically only consider reported coronavirus cases, which tend to be more severe, and thus brought to the attention of health care workers. Asymptomatic cases – or mild cases – may not always be counted.

That death rate, though, went up in older adults, with approximately 7.8% of those over age 80 estimated to die after infection. And deaths were estimated to be exceedingly rare in children younger than nine, with a fatality rate of just 0.00161%.

For age groups younger than 40, the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study. Out of 1,000 young adults infected, then, about 1 or 2 could die, with the youngest people facing the lowest risk.

Experts stress that it’s difficult to estimate a virus’ death rate during an epidemic.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

NJ getting 300 vents

Should that be 3k?

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/new-jersey-is-getting-another-300-ventilators-trump-says.html

 

[LETSGORU91]

here's a question to those who don't think masks are useful. if the official guidance tells people to sneeze and cough into their elbows and sleeves to minimize aerosolization (is that a word?) and from germs gemtting on their hands, why wouldn't masks be as effective, or more effective in controlling this? sometimes people suspend the use of logic in times of crisis. this isn't the time to do that.

Some people don't think masks are necessary because Dr. Debbie Birx says they are not needed. You make a great point, sneeze into your arm but dont sneeze into a mask. It's a very novel (get the play on words) idea that Dr. Debbie has trouble grasping.

Or a bunch of smart students and scientists from MIT, who have announced the design (and prototype as pictured) of an emergency ventilator that can be built for about $100, centered around ambu-bags, which are manually operated devices that deliver air to patients in emergency situations like cardiac arrest and these are readily available in every hospital. The key is the design of a device that can automate the squeezing of the bag in a programmable fashion to deliver air/oxygen, as needed by the patient without having to have someone manually squeeze the bag every few seconds 24/7. Now this is innovation. Maybe GM can build these.

https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-...ergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/

Not a bad idea. Unfortunately this type of delivery system has several flaws. AMBU bags are good for the short term until mechanical ventilation is procured. Short term is measured in minutes here...maybe an hour or few if necessary. One, ventilation over the longer term requires biofeedback from the patient and two, the ventilator needs to deliver precise amounts of oxygen (measured in different ways) and the ability to measure the percentage of oxygen delivered. Done incorrectly over the long term for most of the settings, even slightly miscalculated ones, can lead to detrimental and/or disastrous results.

Sterilization of masks has been now been approved and is really a no-brainer.
Our throw away culture has created the ppe shortage.

You used cloth diapers 100% right? All kidding aside, I did a real quick search and found two interesting tidbits. One, I might know the CEO of one of the companies and two they use hydrogen peroxide to sterilize the masks.

Hydrogen peroxide:

* can cause upper airway irritation, inflammation of the nose, hoarseness, shortness of breath, and a sensation of burning or tightness in the chest. Exposure to high concentrations can result in severe mucosal congestion of the trachea and bronchi and delayed accumulation of fluid in the lungs.

* Inhalation or ingestion of high concentrations of hydrogen peroxide may result in seizures, cerebral infarction, or cerebral embolism. The ensuing damage to the CNS may cause permanent neurological deficits or death.

****Sign me up for some of that.........................NOT!! As Borat said.

I think those collecting test samples need N95 masks and face shields, since the test requires sticking a swab up the subject's nose and down their throat, which could cause them to cough, sneeze, or otherwise aspirate the virus.

Possibly...the procedure is uncomfortable, but for the most part tearing of the eyes is by far the most uncommon result. Surprisingly, the gag reflex is pretty much absent as the swab touches areas above the gag location.

Remember when some were complaining about plastic bags being thrown away? How much plastic PPE has been and will be thrown away in 2020?

There has to be a better way than trashing a set of PPE after using it for just minutes.

You are more than welcome to reuse a gown, gloves or mask that has just taken care of a patient who has a deadly virus, drug resistant organism, incurable disease, tuberculosis, etc. And you are triple welcome to reuse them if they are splashed on, smeared on, coughed on, or just plain soiled. Just please dont include us healthcare workers.

I don't know that the virus is deadlier than previously touted. All along, the data suggested that 2 peope will die out of every 1000 people under age 40 who are infected. And significantly more will be hospitalized.

You picked the healthiest subset as a representative sample? That doesn't make sense.

 

[RUBOB72]

I don't know that the virus is deadlier than previously touted. All along, the data suggested that 2 peope will die out of every 1000 people under age 40 who are infected. And significantly more will be hospitalized.

That can’t be possible three weeks ago those 30’s and 40 year olds acted like they were immune completely while older seniors were all gonna die... a virus like this unfortunately shows no age favoritism ...that is why we all need to follow the directives laid down by state and local government...this isn’t infringing upon one’s right to assemble... if you die or a love one you won’t have to worry about assembling... look at the old senior citizens ( my age group) watching the Hospital ship enter the harbor... hey DeBlosio you cry all the time about being short changed with medical equipment but why were there no police to move these idiots off the street? ...remember this incompetent piece of excrement only won because nobody in the city votes.

 

[Upstream]

You picked the healthiest subset as a representative sample? That doesn't make sense.

I was responding to a post concerned that someone in their 30s died.

 

[RU848789]

• 66.5K positives in NY so far, and 7000 new cases in NY yesterday (7200 new the day before) so another slight decrease in new cases. This is not yet the “peak” since hospitalization/ICU cases are still increasing, as per below, but it’s a good sign that maybe the peak will not be the modeled peak and won’t generally exceed current hospital capacities (except in local situations) – if the current interventions are maintained – but they still need to supply for the peak, in case compliance wanes and/or rates go back up.
• 2738 total deaths in the US and 1218 total deaths in NY, up 253 from yesterday (was up 237 two days ago); 161 deaths in NJ so far
• Total of 9500 currently hospitalized (1000 new vs. 1200 new yesterday),
• Total of 2352 in ICU (315 new vs. 272 new yesterday
• Total of 4204 discharged vs. 3572 as of yesterday, so 632 discharged yesterday vs. 846 the day before and 681 two days ago (could just be fluctuations).
• Now hospitalization rate still doubling every 6 days, looking at last 3 days data (was 2, then 4 b4), so rate of increase has clearly leveled off, which is good.
• No NYC data shared today and no testing data shared today (not sure why)
• 80% self resolve or mild symptoms resolving at home
• 149K cases in the US: 66.5K in NY, 13.4K in NJ, 6300 in CA, 5500 in MI, 4900 in WA, 4900 in MA, 4900 in FL, 4600 in IL, 3500 in LA, 3400 in PA
• Making progress on supplies, but difficult with 50 states, feds, hospitals all competing; vents now $50K (was $20K); it’s too late to prepare when the storm hits.
• Public has to be more responsible with staying at home and keeping 6’ away from people when one has to go out; might have to close some playgrounds (too dense)
• Support our “troops” – health care workers, first responders, essential personnel, etc.
• His goal is to engage the POTUS as a partner and not to play politics; has praised him many times, but will also point out shortfalls; “no red and blue, only red, white and blue and we’re in a national emergency, a war”

https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/health

Social Distancing and Closures Are Working, Based on Fevers from Kinsa's Internet Connected Thermometers (1,000,000 of them)...

Many of us have been speculating with respect to the outbreak perhaps slowing down a bit; the outbreak certainly has leveled off in NY, as per my last couple of posts on Cuomo's pressers, and in WA and a few other states with respect to new cases and hospitalizations per day.

Well, here's some good news from data analysis of fevers across the country, which appears to corroborate that assessment and even more, that infection rates are very likely declining in many locations (although cases lag fevers by several days). This technology also showed where case hotspots would be before they occurred (especially NYC, New Orleans, and spring break in FL). Fascinating stuff and hopefully a light at the end of the tunnel.

As of Monday morning, more than three-quarters of the country was deep blue. A separate display of the collective national fever trend, which had spiked upward to a peak on March 17, had fallen so far that it was actually below the band showing historical flu fever trends — which meant that the lockdown has cut not only Covid-19 transmission but flu transmission, too.

“I’m very impressed by this,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine expert at Vanderbilt University. “It looks like a way to prove that social distancing works.” “But it does shows that it takes the most restrictive measures to make a real difference,” he added.

For some hard-hit cities, Kinsa also sent The New York Times fever data plotted on a timeline of restrictions enacted by mayors or governors.Those graphs, Dr. Schaffner noted, showed that simply declaring a state of emergency or limiting the size of public gatherings did not affect the number of people reporting fevers.

Smart thermometers made by Kinsa. By aggregating data on fevers, the company has tracked the flu in the United States.Credit...Tony Cenicola/The New York Times

But closing restaurants and bars and asking people to stay in their homes produced dramatic results in all three cities.

For example, in Manhattan, reports of fevers steadily rose during early March, despite a declaration of emergency on March 7 and an order on March 12 that public gatherings be restricted to less than 500 people. Sign up to receive our daily Coronavirus Briefing, an informed guide with the latest developments and expert advice.

The turning point began on March 16, the day schools were closed. Bars and restaurants were closed the next day, and a stay-at-home order took effect on March 20. By March 23, new fevers in Manhattan were below their March 1 levels.

Last Friday, New York State’s own data showed the same trend that Kinsa’s fever readings had spotted five days earlier. The state tracks hospitalization rates, not fevers. So many patients were being admitted to New York City hospitals, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, that until March 20, hospitalization rates were doubling roughly every two days. By Tuesday, the hospitalization rate took four days to double. This is roughly what the fever readings predicted, said Nita Nehru, a company spokeswoman.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/...ck&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Health

 

[LETSGORU91]

I was responding to a post concerned that someone in their 30s died.

My apologies. I misinterpreted your response and thought you were comparing it to something else, but I didnt know what. I haven't looked hard at the younger subset, but I recall hearing seeing the critical care and/or mortality rates have been higher in certain parts of the world. Sadly, I have heard reports of people in their 20s and even an infant recently.

 

[RU848789]

Some people don't think masks are necessary because Dr. Debbie Birx says they are not needed. You make a great point, sneeze into your arm but dont sneeze into a mask. It's a very novel (get the play on words) idea that Dr. Debbie has trouble grasping.



Not a bad idea. Unfortunately this type of delivery system has several flaws. AMBU bags are good for the short term until mechanical ventilation is procured. Short term is measured in minutes here...maybe an hour or few if necessary. One, ventilation over the longer term requires biofeedback from the patient and two, the ventilator needs to deliver precise amounts of oxygen (measure in different ways) and the ability to measure the percentage of oxygen delivered. Done incorrectly over the long term for most of the settings, even slightly miscalculated ones, can lead to detrimental and/or disastrous results.

My guess is this design could do most/all of that, but not 100% sure; controlling pressure and flow of a gas is pretty damn easy and the logic for feedback from a probe in the patient ought to be able to be incorporated into the control loop logic for that pressure/flow (I did some similar things 30+ years ago in grad school). But yes, done poorly would be bad.

You used cloth diapers 100% right? All kidding aside, I did a real quick search and found two interesting tidbits. One, I might know the CEO of one of the companies and two they use hydrogen peroxide to sterilize the masks.

Hydrogen peroxide:

* can cause upper airway irritation, inflammation of the nose, hoarseness, shortness of breath, and a sensation of burning or tightness in the chest. Exposure to high concentrations can result in severe mucosal congestion of the trachea and bronchi and delayed accumulation of fluid in the lungs.

* Inhalation or ingestion of high concentrations of hydrogen peroxide may result in seizures, cerebral infarction, or cerebral embolism. The ensuing damage to the CNS may cause permanent neurological deficits or death.

****Sign me up for some of that.........................NOT!! As Borat said.

Not sure why anyone would use peroxide, when dry heat works. 140F for 30 minutes works (115F deactivates the virus very quickly) and doesn't hurt the mask.

http://www.imcclinics.com/english/index.php/news/view?id=83

Possibly...the procedure is uncomfortable, but for the most part tearing of the eyes is by far the most uncommon result. Surprisingly, the gag reflex is pretty much absent as the swab touches areas above the gag location.



You are more than welcome to reuse a gown, gloves or mask that has just taken care of a patient who has a deadly virus, drug resistant organism, incurable disease, tuberculosis, etc. And you are triple welcome to reuse them if they are splashed on, smeared on, coughed on, or just plain soiled. Just please dont include us healthcare workers.

Soap and warm water will absolutely deactivate the virus and is the method of choice for everyone's hands, so not sure why gowns couldn't simply be laundered in warm water and dried, unless they wouldn't stand up to those conditions.


You picked the healthiest subset as a representative sample? That doesn't make sense.

Comments in bold within the quoted text...

 

[RUevolution36]

Just like the flu... no big deal. MSM concocted hysteria.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-yo...ter-united-states-peak-60-minutes-2020-03-29/

 

[RU848789]

Anecdotal evidence from MD's on the front lines (social media) is that there are no clear "breakthroughs" yet with any of the treatments being tried, but that's anecdotal and shouldn't be taken as gospel, just like Raoult's small, flawed trial of HCQ shouldn't have been taken as gospel and touted as a cure by the doctor who ran the study (Raoult) and by a famous non-scientist (our President). Let's hope the larger trial data show some success. Also, there was a similar HCQ small trial in China which showed little efficacy.

"The results in France were contradicted by those of another small study in China, which indicated that hydroxychloroquine was no more effective than other treatments for Covid-19. As AFP reported on Wednesday, the Chinese study, published in the Journal of Zhejiang University, involved treating half of a group of 30 Covid-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine for seven days. After a week of treatment, 13 of the 15 patients given the malaria drug tested negative for the coronavirus; but so did 14 of the 15 Covid-19 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine."

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/24/trump-hyped-chloroquine-cure-covid-19-man-arizona-took-died/

I'd give HCQ or remdesivir a much bigger chance of being at least partially efficacious than supplements.

Well, some possibly promising results from a Chinese study with hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) only (no azithromycin) was just published as a preprint (not peer reviewed yet). Trial was small (31 patients in each group), but blinded and standard of care treatment-controlled, and showed some evidence of efficacy with respect to TTCR (time to clinical recovery). Below is the abstract. I'm sure even partial responses like this with surrogate endpoints are going to result in a run on HCQ. But what we truly need is a trial large enough to really look at death rates or ICU-intubation rates for HCQ vs. standard of care to see if there's truly a significant benefit.

Abstract

Aims: Studies have indicated that chloroquine (CQ) shows antagonism against COVID-19 in vitro. However, evidence regarding its effects in patients is limited. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the treatment of patients with COVID-19. Main methods: From February 4 to February 28, 2020, 62 patients suffering from COVID-19 were diagnosed and admitted to Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. All participants were randomized in a parallel-group trial, 31 patients were assigned to receive an additional 5-day HCQ (400 mg/d) treatment, Time to clinical recovery (TTCR), clinical characteristics, and radiological results were assessed at baseline and 5 days after treatment to evaluate the effect of HCQ. Key findings: For the 62 COVID-19 patients, 46.8% (29 of 62) were male and 53.2% (33 of 62) were female, the mean age was 44.7 (15.3) years. No difference in the age and sex distribution between the control group and the HCQ group. But for TTCR, the body temperature recovery time and the cough remission time were significantly shortened in the HCQ treatment group. Besides, a larger proportion of patients with improved pneumonia in the HCQ treatment group (80.6%, 25 of 32) compared with the control group (54.8%, 17 of 32). Notably, all 4 patients progressed to severe illness that occurred in the control group. However, there were 2 patients with mild adverse reactions in the HCQ treatment group. Significance: Among patients with COVID-19, the use of HCQ could significantly shorten TTCR and promote the absorption of pneumonia.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v1.full.pdf+html

With regard to my comment on surrogate endpoints, here's how an MD on another board put it. So, promising, yes, but definitive, no.

One thing I’ve noticed for the trials so far looking at hydroxychloroquine is the rampant use of surrogate end points. Time to clinical recovery, the primary end point in this trial. Is a composite of cessation of cough and return of body Temp normalcy. They show pretty drastic differences between the two groups. My question is what relationship does that “surrogate” end point have to any meaningful end point. For example, rate of ICU admission, progression to needing a ventilator, length of hospitalization, and most importantly death. Other surrogate end points I’ve seen used are time for viral rna to return to normal and rate of decline of rna viral load. I’m not trying to say it’s not possible this drug works, just find it interesting the end points that they’re choosing. The studies in the US are better designed and larger (much larger) and will therefore be the gold standard for whether or not the drug works

In fairness they do comment (with poor English) that 4 patients who got severely ill were in the control group and there was radiographic improvement in the pneumonia’s more commonly in the treatment arm but because of small samples sizes the p values are not significant

 

[RU848789]

Another excellent article on the pandemic from the NY Times on how their "fail-safe" system to contain new contagions failed. Miserably.

China simply can't be trusted on any of this, other than very specific things like controlled clinical studies and steps taken to intervene in transmission once the cat was out of the bag. But there's simply no way the most populous country on the planet in a very densely populated province/city only had about 80K infected in the country and 50K in Wuhan (0.05%) when it first broke there and very little was done for a weeks. I imagine they had at least 5-10x the number of infections and deaths that were reported.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/...5nJtvOI-mnx6iPQiHpvTNAdxzsT0sXjhLr0lXu6y1pPq0

 

[Roy_Faulker]

Local company (at least for me) got FDA. Approval for process to clean up to 80k of the n95 masks per day.

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/loc...cal-masks-per-day-still-awaiting-fda-approval

 

[Roy_Faulker]

Read MD and VA extended social distancing until June 10th.

Realistically, do theses dates just keep getting pushed back until a vaccine?

 

[rutgersguy1]

Recommendation of mask use by the general public seems to be gaining steam and might be coming down the line.

From CNN:

But a growing number of other health experts argue that people should wear masks to help prevent the spread of the virus.

"We are not going to be wearing masks forever, but it could be for a short period of time after we get back into gear. I could see something like that happening for a period of time," said President Donald Trump, during Monday's White House briefing.

A source close to the coronavirus task force told CNN the idea of asking Americans to wear masks for a period of time during the pandemic was likely to be under serious discussion.

And the Washington Post reports that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control is seriously considering changing its guidelines when it comes to mask use by the general public.

Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, wrote in a Twitter thread Sunday that "members of the general public should wear non-medical fabric masks when going out in public in one additional societal effort to slow the spread of the virus down."

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, also wrote in a Twitter post Sunday that a recommendation from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "for consumers to wear cotton masks (with guidelines on how to fashion these products from household items) can improve safety and reduce spread and not strain the hospital supply chain."

Some experts who have made the argument for people to wear masks have pointed to past research showing their effectiveness against the spread of influenza, and to early research on Covid-19.

A study published in the Journal of Hospital Infection in 2013 found that surgical masks could help reduce exposure to infectious influenza virus in the air.

Preliminary data on how the virus shed from 13 Covid-19 patients at the University of Nebraska Medical Center supports "the use of airborne isolation precautions," such as masks. That early data currently is not published in a peer-reviewed journal.

 

[rutgersguy1]

 

[rutgersguy1]

Posted this in the good news thread on the CE board but figured it can be posted here too. It's an instagram I came across with a bunch of good news/feel good things/videos related to the virus. Never hurts to get a pick me up in these kind of times.

https://www.instagram.com/goodnews_movement/?hl=en

 

[RU2055]

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/sanofi-begins-trial-of-kevzara-against-covid-19-complications

Sanofi, along with Genentech joins the fight going after IL-6.

The leading cause of death so far for covid-19 patients (at least anecdotally from front line doctors and nurses) is cytokine storm toxicity. In layman's terms, this is when the body's own immune system goes into "hyperdrive" and unfortunately results in death.

While drugs like HCQ and remdesivir appears to be working very well against the virus itself, these drugs won't do anything for someone in severe condition and is in the stage of suffering from cytokine storm toxicity. So, drugs to control one of the regulators for the immune response system, called interleukin 6, in combination with the anti-virals, could turn the tide against covid-19.

Vaccines are the ultimate long term solutions, but in the mean time, these are the near short term solutions currently in the works. Fingers crossed.

 

[rutgersguy1]

White House coronavirus task force will discuss mask guidelines today, Fauci says

From CNN's Adrienne Vogt

The US’s top infectious disease expert said that a broad use of masks is being considered during the coronavirus pandemic, once the supply of masks is sufficient for health care workers.

“Once we get in a situation where we have enough masks, I believe there will be some very serious consideration about more broadening this recommendation of using masks,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said on CNN. “We're not there yet, but I think we're close to coming to some determination.”
Fauci said they will discuss mask guidelines this afternoon at the White House coronavirus task force meeting.

World Health Organization officials yesterday said they still recommend people not wear face masks unless they are sick with coronavirus or caring for someone who is sick.

 

[RUBOB72]

I don't know that the virus is deadlier than previously touted. All along, the data suggested that 2 peope will die out of every 1000 people under age 40 who are infected. And significantly more will be hospitalized.

But many of the under 50 crowd disapproved with the governments advice to take this serious ...especially young adults hanging out and going to spring break... now all of a sudden people realize this...

 

[RU848789]

Another excellent article on the pandemic from the NY Times on how their "fail-safe" system to contain new contagions failed. Miserably.

China simply can't be trusted on any of this, other than very specific things like controlled clinical studies and steps taken to intervene in transmission once the cat was out of the bag. But there's simply no way the most populous country on the planet in a very densely populated province/city only had about 80K infected in the country and 50K in Wuhan (0.05%) when it first broke there and very little was done for a weeks. I imagine they had at least 5-10x the number of infections and deaths that were reported.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/...5nJtvOI-mnx6iPQiHpvTNAdxzsT0sXjhLr0lXu6y1pPq0

A little more math on why China's data shouldn't be trusted...

First, with extensive testing roughly 30-50% of positive test results would be expected to be asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic (based on the Diamond Princess data) and China has not been reporting these cases in their data. This could easily add another 50-80K cases to their ~80K reported cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-79fa2e

But that's only part of why I doubt there numbers. The other is that their infection % of the population is simply way too low. Even if they did as well in controlling the outbreak as South Korea - which they didn't, as they were first and had no idea what had hit them for awhile - they'd have 270K infections on a per capita basis (27X the population of SK, which has ~10K cases), which is over 3X what they've reported and I think they've likely done significantly worse than SK or at least 5X what they've reported.

 

[DJ Spanky]

A little more math on why China's data shouldn't be trusted...
.....
But that's only part of why I doubt there numbers. The other is that their infection % of the population is simply way too low. Even if they did as well in controlling the outbreak as South Korea - which they didn't, as they were first and had no idea what had hit them for awhile - they'd have 270K infections on a per capita basis (27X the population of SK, which has ~10K cases), which is over 3X what they've reported and I think they've likely done significantly worse than SK or at least 5X what they've reported.

Another reason is that the first instance of this being reported was on Nov. 17th; early December was when they started suppressing social media accounts of an unknown disease. And that continued through early January. So there's almost a month and a half where they were sticking there collective heads in the sand and ignoring the issue.

 

[RU848789]

Summary of today's by presser Cuomo ...

• 172K tests so far in NY/73K in NYC and 16K/7K (NY/NYC) yesterday
• 59.5K positives so far in NY/33.7K in NYC and 7200/4000 yesterday in NY/NYC (7600/4300 day before) – this is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in new cases in either NY or NYC, since cases started rising quickly. Great news! This is not yet the “peak” since hospitalization/ICU cases are still increasing, as per below, but it’s a good sign that maybe the peak will not be the modeled peak – if the current interventions are maintained.
• 965 total deaths in NY so far, up 237 from yesterday (was up 209 two days ago) and this is likely to keep increasing, as deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks.
• Total of 8500 currently hospitalized in NY (1200 new vs. 847 yesterday and 1100 2 days ago)
• Hospitalization rate doubling every 6 days, looking at last 3 days data (was every 2 days a week ago), so rate of increase has decreased significantly and possibly leveled off, which is good.
  
• Total of 2037 currently in ICU, which means on ventilators usually; this is 272 new vs. 172 new yesterday and 374 new 2 days ago (bouncing around as expected),
• Total of 3572 discharged (2726 as of yesterday, so 846 discharged yesterday – rate is increasing
• 80% of cases continue to self resolve or mild symptoms resolving at home
• Total of 59.5K cases in NY, 11K in NJ, 5500 in CA, 4600 in MI, 4300 in WA, 4300 in MA, 4000 in FL, 3500 in IL, 3300 in LA, 2800 in PA - most of these other states now accelerating faster than NY.
• CDC ordered travel advisory for NY/NJ/CT (not a lockdown) to be implemented by states to discourage all travel, which he supports and NY/NJ/CT have implemented. RI dropped their “quarantine on New Yorkers” exective order and Trump dropped his "quarantine" talk.
• Quoted FDR: “courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the assessment that something else is more important than fear.”

https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/health

Summary of today's by presser Cuomo...

• 200K tested so far in NY and 89K in NYC, which is more per capita than South Korea; 19K/10K tested yesterday in NY/NYC
• 809,000 positive cases in the US: 75.7K positives in NY/43.1K in NYC, so far, and 9300/5700 in NY/NYC yesterday vs. 7000K new cases yesterday in NY – that’a a moderate increase in new cases vs. small decreases the last two days. Let’s hope this is just a fluctuation and not a trend.
• 3044 total deaths in the US and 1550 total deaths in NY, up 332 from yesterday (was up 253 two days ago); 198 deaths in NJ (161 yesterday)
• Total of 10,900 currently hospitalized in NY (1400 new vs. 1000 new yesterday and 1200 new the day before), so that’s an increase - again that number had leveled off, so let's hope the increase is a daily fluctuation, which is quite possible.
• Hospitalization rate still doubling every 6 days, looking at last 3 days data (was 2-3 days before), so rate of increase has decreased, which is good.
• Total of 2710 currently in ICU, which means on ventilators, usually (2352 yesterday, so 358 new vs. 315 yesterday), which is also an increase in new ICU cases.
• 4975 discharged (4204 as of yesterday, so 771 discharged yesterday vs. 632 the day before; could just be fluctuations.
• 80% of positive cases self resolve or mild symptoms resolving at home
• 172K cases in the US: 75.7K in NY, 16.5K in NJ (13K yesterday), 7400 in CA (6300 yesterday), 6500in MI (5500 yesterday), 5700 in MA (4900 yesterday), 5700 in FL (4900 yesterday), 5200 in WA (4900 yesterday), so you can see how much better WA is doing vs. MA/FL, as all three had 4900 case yesterday; 5100 in IL (4600 yesterday), 4000 in LA (3500 yesterday), 4100 in PA (3400 yesterday)
• Still planning for modeled apex of the hospitalization/ICU/ventilator curve, since have to plan for wost credible case.
• Mixture of public/private and NY/NYC hospitals - he doesn't care about being territorial - have to look at this as one system now and respond where the needs are for supplies.
• Individual responsibility: stay at home, stay at home, stay at home, except for essential workers and essential needs; your actions can cause someone else to become sick and/or die
• Chris Cuomo just tested positive for coronavirus (quarantined in his basement and ok so far): you never know if you might be infected (but they moved their mom out of Chris's house 2 weeks ago)

https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/health

 

[RU848789]

In case you hadn't heard about the "coronavirus gender gap," significantly more men die from COVID-19 than women. 60-70% of total deaths are in men across almost every country, whereas men and women are infected at the same rate, so obviously, there's some combination of biology and environment/lifestyle at play here. Men are typically more likely to drink/smoke and be less healthy than women and women are thought to have better immune systems. Excellent article on this below...

https://www.france24.com/en/20200331-coronavirus-why-do-more-men-die-of-covid-19-than-women

 

[CERU00]

we cant compete with factory labor costs, Not even close.

Would I rather have cheap electronics or a job for my neighbor? We make legitimate demands of our manufacturers (workers rights, environmental restrictions, safety regulations) and then shut them down when forced to compete against a workforce that has none of the best practices we demand. It's all so hypocritical. We've sold out nearly everything for the almighty dollar.

 

[jerzey devil]

This has to scare everyone
Healthy as can be 30-year old succumbs to CV

https://www.nj.com/highschoolsports...hs-baseball-coach-30-dies-of-coronavirus.html

This contagion is much deadlier and potent than what the govt and experts are saying

RIP Coach

Very Sad.... But I still believe this is the exception... Not the norm...

 

[Scarlet16E]

Social Distancing and Closures Are Working, Based on Fevers from Kinsa's Internet Connected Thermometers (1,000,000 of them)...

Many of us have been speculating with respect to the outbreak perhaps slowing down a bit; the outbreak certainly has leveled off in NY, as per my last couple of posts on Cuomo's pressers, and in WA and a few other states with respect to new cases and hospitalizations per day.

Well, here's some good news from data analysis of fevers across the country, which appears to corroborate that assessment and even more, that infection rates are very likely declining in many locations (although cases lag fevers by several days). This technology also showed where case hotspots would be before they occurred (especially NYC, New Orleans, and spring break in FL). Fascinating stuff and hopefully a light at the end of the tunnel.

As of Monday morning, more than three-quarters of the country was deep blue. A separate display of the collective national fever trend, which had spiked upward to a peak on March 17, had fallen so far that it was actually below the band showing historical flu fever trends — which meant that the lockdown has cut not only Covid-19 transmission but flu transmission, too.

“I’m very impressed by this,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine expert at Vanderbilt University. “It looks like a way to prove that social distancing works.” “But it does shows that it takes the most restrictive measures to make a real difference,” he added.

For some hard-hit cities, Kinsa also sent The New York Times fever data plotted on a timeline of restrictions enacted by mayors or governors.Those graphs, Dr. Schaffner noted, showed that simply declaring a state of emergency or limiting the size of public gatherings did not affect the number of people reporting fevers.

Smart thermometers made by Kinsa. By aggregating data on fevers, the company has tracked the flu in the United States.Credit...Tony Cenicola/The New York Times

But closing restaurants and bars and asking people to stay in their homes produced dramatic results in all three cities.

For example, in Manhattan, reports of fevers steadily rose during early March, despite a declaration of emergency on March 7 and an order on March 12 that public gatherings be restricted to less than 500 people. Sign up to receive our daily Coronavirus Briefing, an informed guide with the latest developments and expert advice.

The turning point began on March 16, the day schools were closed. Bars and restaurants were closed the next day, and a stay-at-home order took effect on March 20. By March 23, new fevers in Manhattan were below their March 1 levels.

Last Friday, New York State’s own data showed the same trend that Kinsa’s fever readings had spotted five days earlier. The state tracks hospitalization rates, not fevers. So many patients were being admitted to New York City hospitals, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, that until March 20, hospitalization rates were doubling roughly every two days. By Tuesday, the hospitalization rate took four days to double. This is roughly what the fever readings predicted, said Nita Nehru, a company spokeswoman.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/...ck&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Health

One stunning fact from this story is that the CDC was unaware of this and has not worked with Kinsa. It seems like exactly what the CDC should be paying attention to, and using to supplement their current models.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Very Sad.... But I still believe this is the exception... Not the norm...

We are seeing a lot more