COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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NJ reported today that of the deaths in the state, 3 people were under 30 and 12 people were 30-49. Assuming the rate of 2 deaths per 1000 confirmed cases for those under 40 (and extending that up to age 49) that means we could expect that 1500 confirmed cases for those under 30 and 6000 confirmed cases for those 30-49. That means the remaining ~11,000 confirmed cases in the state are over 50.
The state didn't report the age breakdown of confirmed cases, but those numbers don't seem that unreasonable.
Of course, the actual data drives home the fact that the young are not immune, as many had falsely assumed. And beyond the mortality numbers, significant numbers of young people are being hospitalized.
George Ure of Urban Survival-not a man usually given to outlandish speculation-says that he hopes that the USA deaths can be held to ONLY 200,000.
And you will never see certain parts of the news media offer any hope that a particular drug or drugs being used are helping. They initially attempted to influence the system not to use them though the Hydroxy Chloriquine has been around for years. You will never hear that interleukin6 is being tried or even works . God forbid that they attempt to offer anything hopeful to the American public. That would not fit into the depressing hourly news on tv, radio or the internet . We should all support these attempts at finding answers rather than blaming Trump and touting China as some type of magnificent World Power. There’re are too many born and raised in the US that adhere to the same thinking as the current Chinese government.
Paging Dr. Debbie Birx...paging Dr. Debbie Birx...please refer to the diagram above.
I sure hope Fauci can convince Birx on this one.
The title is ancient. The info is as up to date as you can get. If you take the thread down, people cannot backtrack and reference past information.
The guy talks off the cuff and believe it or NOT he is the President of the USA... all of the USA... attempting to convince yourself that he is a blabbering idiot just continues to prove Hate is a disease ... perhaps you should loosen Salvi’s Headband around your skull... it’s cutting off blood flow... no matter what he would do or this group of experts most would find fault or blame ...even blaming Birx... here is what issue we should worry about... it is well known many doctors are undeserving of that title... many are , as they used to say , “ quacks” ...how many of these medical people , now working in hospitals , actually belong in ICU patient care? I have been, seen and worked in hospitals 40 years ago...I have spent time as a patient at 3-4 of the finest Hospitals in NYC...my late mother had one of the first attempts at rebuilding her urinary bladder which was destroyed by a NJ Urologist...at Cornell Medical Center 1966 ...not all who work in the field of medicine belong there nor should they ultimately decide who lives or dies... both young and old.
Who was agreeing with his vitriol?I merely attempted to point out that Trump should have left that unsaid.I'll bet that Kellyanne winced at that one as well.Still,the guy is under historically unprecedented pressure so he gets a pass here.
This was a breakdown of the 267 deaths in the state.
Department of Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli provided age ranges of those who died:
- 3 people less than 30 years old
- 12 people ages 30-49
- 46 people ages 50-64
- 80 people ages 65-79
- 126 people over 80
They don't know the denominator for flu either... they model, they guess.
Question: if the person has the virus, mild case with coughing, after 2 or maybe 3 weeks, would she still be able to transmit or is she clean?
My nephew wife has a cough but has been home the last 2 weeks with the family found out her 2 co-workers tested positive. She now says she feel better. She never been tested and I was over their house before I found out her 2 co-workers tested positive but I don’t feel anything.
My nephew wife has a cough but has been home the last 2 weeks with the family found out her 2 co-workers tested positive. She now says she feel better. She never been tested and I was over their house before I found out her 2 co-workers tested positive but I don’t feel anything.
they also have incomplete data. i never go to the doctor when i get the flu. i suffer thru it for a few days and that's that. i know many others who do the same.
How do they know actual numbers, when many people with the flu never seek medical attention?
They don't.
oh really? what is it?
You do not know the denominator for CVid-19 because of testing... and you'll never know.. KNOW.. unless everyone is tested.
The same thing is true for the flu. You ever have the flu and not tell anyone? How were you counted? how did you become part of the denominator for regular seasonal flu?
The models for the flu are probably pretty good... but it is still guesswork. They might look at sales fo flu remedies and numbers of doctors visits (and reports to insurance companies and sick days from large businesses.. even the government..) to help model.
The models for CoVid are just being made. But they will get better and better as this goes on. It is fair to post comparisons now... because it is what we know now.. we do not know if those numbers will be going up or down.. but we can clearly see it is different than regular flu.. the distribution is different.. it seems CoVid is MORE of a threat to younger people than regular flu purely by the distribution we already know.. whether or not the denominator changes things.
Years and years of experience. Plus it is assumed EVERYONE will be touched by the Flu in any given year. That's how.
Holy moly. Why do we argue this? What is the point of minimizing the impact of the Flu? People say covid-19 isn't like the Flu - uhm yeah, let's hope not. In it's first year, the Flu killed 50 million people. It kills 650,000 every year.
The difference is we know how to deal with the Flu. This is humanity's first year dealing with covid-19.
Covid-19 is dangerous and it is devastating to certain people. We should stay inside and do everything we can to flatten the curve. But anybody minimizing the Flu is just not an intelligent person.
The model for calculating the denominator is based on how transmittable the disease is. WHO already said, that it would be hopeless to contain the Flu. Well, guess what, the Flu has an incubation period of 2-4 days. Covid-19 is 2-14 days. Which do you think is more transmittable then? Which one, intelligently speaking, would hypothetically touch more people?
You continue to post drivel. Plenty of media attention (and attention in this thread) on potential treatments, but it's balanced in most quarters, because the outcome isn't known yet, rather than touting something with zero knowledge of whether it will truly work, which Trump never should've done with HCQ. There's also been quite a bit of attention on the plasma-antibody approach, which could bear fruit in just weeks.
But unfortunately, right now, all we have are anecdotal stories of effectiveness, as the larger, controlled trials aren't done yet (but did get underway quite quickly thanks to suspending some FDA regs, which the Administration did a great job on). Remdesivir phase III results come on Friday.
I do get some of the reluctance to go all in on masks, given that we don't want to have masks not available for health care workers.
And yeah, probably time to change the thread title. I have been a little busy posting lol (here, on Facebook, and on 2 other boards, lol), but agree it's a great quality thread for the most part.
Edit - actually the title isn't bad. Still explosive growth in parts of the US, even if NY/NJ are looking like they're nearing the peak (and are not on the exponential growth phase any more) - guessing the new cases per day peak will be in a week or less, with the hospitalization rate peaking another ~5 days or so after that and deaths 1-2 weeks later, as they lag.
I hope I'm right, as I'm sure everyone else does - and if I am, both NY/NJ will come in moderately under the worst case projections on hospitalizations/ICUs, although I think we'll still continue to see issues with proper deployment of what the system has, as it's tough to manage with small inventories and fairly large incoming patient spikes, at times.
And there are still testing/supplies issues and we still need more social distancing, so not sure what I'd change.
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In regards to the masks, I just wish they would message it better to the public. Be clear that masks can help (which i think is fact), but that people should not be using them until the supply allows for all of the first responders and health care works needs to be covered first. That is more honest than arguing they don't provide a benefit and therefore people shouldn't be using them simply because we don't have enough supply.
NJ COVID-19 hospitalization spike is expected in mid-April, per a member of Murphy's taskforce.
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The only drivel is you attempting daily to post endless articles which in the outcome will change 10 times before next week... why would anyone listen to your incessant pandering to bloggers, media and the rest of those scientists who are more than likely wrong ... my rant was about medical people , those doctors , nurses and clinicians who really don’t belong treating some of these patients... as I said ... weatherman... I have actually worked medivac , triage, emergency and operating rooms ... gave it up ... it was not for me... so my drivel is much warranted...remember if you knew as much as you think you would be in charge...but sorry your Rutgers degree doesn’t mean you have common sense...
What is your background? ER and OR suggests either a doctor or a murse, both of which are highly inconsistent with your posting habits...
Want you know many of us truly appreciate your Posts on this national emergency.
Please continue with your updates.
Thanks
I was exactly right, 8 days in advance, on when the US would hit 5000 cases and was only off by one day, 5 days in advance, on when we'd hit 80K and I was predicting 35-180K deaths (with an expected value around 85K) before Fauci and UW did. Doesn't mean I'll be right with my prediction that NYC metro will be reaching its new case peak in a week or less, assuming we continue with our ongoing interventions, but I hope I am for everyone's sake. And I've brought quite a few medical/technical details from the experts to the board in an attempt to help people understand what's going on. So, I wouldn't classify it as drivel and I don't think most others would either.
My apologies for calling your post drivel, but you were ranting about the media being the problem with regard to new treatments and slamming doctors and it just seemed uncalled for. There are incredible things going on in the medical/research community to try to treat/prevent this virus and even though they may not help us much in the next few weeks, hopefully they'll be paying off soon and until then our health care professionals are doing the best they can with what they have. And it's clear we need to start acting as one country with regard to these supplies and social distancing and building up further the infrastructure for testing (many locations still don't have the tests they need) and quarantining/tracing - not just to stem this wave, but to be better prepared for the next one. It's nice to see the President finally taking this seriously, but we need more and we need it now.
#s, stop unnecessarily apologizing to the idiots. just keep doing you
It's pretty clear, this isnt just the flu. It is much more virulent and packed into a short time frame. Once all is said and done, this will be a bad one.
The general time frame many have been looking at is 14 days after the most recent exposure to be clear and safe. The incubation period's (virus growing in your body without symptoms) transmission rates growing in the first 2-5 days. Once symptoms appear (day 3-7ish), the virus starts to peak and begins to decrease possibility of transmission over time. Those are general and I cant recall the exact numbers I read over 2 weeks ago.
That sounds sane and rational. Why didnt Debbie Birx think of that over the last three weeks? She doesn't want to eat her words.
There are some interesting charts predicting the surge in ospitalizations versus available beds. The charts I have seen indicate between April 20th and May 10th as the peak of needed hospitalizations based on normal social interaction (4/20) and moderate social distancing (5/10). Based on the models, we will soon be climbing a steep slope towards those dates and the need for beds will outstrip the current supply.
Wrap a bandana, sock or even saran wrap (kidding) around your head. Limit the transmission of the virus. This is the page for my demand vs. supply of hospital beds. You can click on any state you want. Interesting numbers and projections.
https://covidactnow.org/
Thanks, but the main reason I try to reach out is it would be nice if keep this thread less confrontational and more helpful, although that's tough given that there are obvious political decisions and issues intimately tied into how we got here and what path we're taking and it's almost impossible to not go there on occasion.
I have repeated the lies from "experts" telling us that masks don't help.
I bet a lot of "experts" did not know it was lies as well... while a few were "in on it".. tell the public they don't work so we can have them.
I don't blame them.. I just wish they had stockpiled properly and told us the truth and asked for a sacrifice.
Being lied to about protecting you and your loved ones from a deadly plague is not something that will be forgotten.
I bet a lot of "experts" did not know it was lies as well... while a few were "in on it".. tell the public they don't work so we can have them.
I don't blame them.. I just wish they had stockpiled properly and told us the truth and asked for a sacrifice.
Being lied to about protecting you and your loved ones from a deadly plague is not something that will be forgotten.
Well, at least Italy appears to have peaked in new cases and is now declining with deaths having leveled off, although the math would say deaths will stay near their current rate for a bit longer, given that deaths lag cases. Let's hope we're approaching the peak in new cases in NY, but still too early to call that...
Perhaps more good news for NY/NYC (and likely NJ). As discussed in last night's post (linked below) about the Kinsa internet connected network of 1MM thermometers indicating that the outbreak in the NYC metro area had likely already peaked and was on the decline by late last week, based on fever data (which doesn't mean cases will follow immediately, given high testing rates still discovering many cases).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-46#post-4481499
Well, tonight, an encouraging paper was published by a leading MIT economics prof (and math whiz) showing that the NYC data on cases is definitely showing signs of "flattening the curve," i.e., leveling off, after which they should decline. This confirms what my thinking has been looking at the data from NY/NYC and discussing in previous posts and the one quoted above.
And after evaluating a host of potential reasons for the flattening, he concluded that, by far, the most likely reason for this is the success of the "aggressive social distancing policies put in place, combined with successful communication of consistent, clear, accurate and timely information to millions of individuals, who responded by taking action without government coercion."
I hope this is all correct, because if it is NYC/NY will come in moderately under the worst case projections on hospitalizations/ICUs, although I think we'll still continue to see issues with proper deployment of what the system has, as it's tough to manage with small inventories and fairly large incoming patient spikes, at times. My guess is NJ will follow quickly on NYC's heels.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm…
Fine with you posting info but being rubbed wrong with your I was predicting this and I was right on that and I knew this before the professionasl. Stick to snow predictions please.
Perhaps more good news for NY/NYC (and likely NJ). As discussed in last night's post (linked below) about the Kinsa internet connected network of 1MM thermometers indicating that the outbreak in the NYC metro area had likely already peaked and was on the decline by late last week, based on fever data (which doesn't mean cases will follow immediately, given high testing rates still discovering many cases).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-46#post-4481499
Well, tonight, an encouraging paper was published by a leading MIT economics prof (and math whiz) showing that the NYC data on cases is definitely showing signs of "flattening the curve," i.e., leveling off, after which they should decline. This confirms what my thinking has been looking at the data from NY/NYC and discussing in previous posts and the one quoted above.
And after evaluating a host of potential reasons for the flattening, he concluded that, by far, the most likely reason for this is the success of the "aggressive social distancing policies put in place, combined with successful communication of consistent, clear, accurate and timely information to millions of individuals, who responded by taking action without government coercion."
I hope this is all correct, because if it is NYC/NY will come in moderately under the worst case projections on hospitalizations/ICUs, although I think we'll still continue to see issues with proper deployment of what the system has, as it's tough to manage with small inventories and fairly large incoming patient spikes, at times. My guess is NJ will follow quickly on NYC's heels.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm…
I’ve noticed the same trends. I wonder how the rest of the country is....I feel like many places are 1-3 weeks behind us.
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