Selfish, uncaring d-bags - no other way to put it.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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EXPEL them.. surely it is against the code of conduct to recklessly endanger people's lives. have them try their luck with a degree other than UT-Austin.
A lot of the notorious cases involve churches. One church in S Korea had around 2k members infected with 20+ deaths. In Washington St a church choir practice of 60 members saw 45 get CV and 5 went to hospital with 2 dead. Church services, family gatherings, parties etc seem to be pretty dangerous compared to passing contact. Maybe there are heavier viral loads in certain situations. I certainly wouldn't go to a sporting event or concert etc
In 1918 flu Los Angles was hardly affected but Louisville Kentucky was crushed. These things aren't uniform. In Italy and Seattle the link was Chinese populations
I also don't like the big meetings with Trump AND Pence in the same room with media. Cuomo had CV19. Media should be made to wear mask and be behind barrier. Trump and Pence should not be doing public meetings together. We know CV19 is airborne and when I see the open and unmasked nature of the media meetings it just reminds me they don't get it yet.
It took 7 days, sadly, as we just hit 1049 deaths in one day on Wednesday. would be a small "victory" of sorts (relative to where we are now, not in general) if we can stay below 2000/day, as it's at least well below the ~4300/day we'd expect if we had the same per capita deaths as Italy (they had a sustained 780/day for 9 days and we have 5.5X their population). Also, as expected our case fatality rate has jumped up to around 2.5%, since we're now seeing more deaths per day, as deaths lag cases.
If we can keep it under 2000/day, over a 10-20 day peak, we have a shot at keeping to under 60K total deaths and could probably prevent overwhelming most of our hospitals. If we go to Italy's rates per capita, we'll likely see at least 100K deaths; both of those numbers suck, but 100K certainly is much worse and at those rates, we'd likely overwhelm many of our hospitals.
Also as of Monday, NY had slightly over 50% of the total deaths in the US, but by Wednesday that dropped to 43%, meaning the rest of the country is accelerating faster than NY and much of the rest of the country is not as prepared as NY has been, at least with regard to social distancing, as many states have either no stay at home orders or weak ones. We're simply not being proactive enough - need a nationwide "stay at home" order now, like the Surgeon General implied today.
Yea. I saw some quote to young people from a governor on CNN or somewhere and it was along the lines of don't let yourself be an instrument of death for the virus. I'd take it a step further and be more blunt and in your face about it and say "don't be a murder weapon" and hope the message would get through.
I wanted to say karma is a bitch and I hope they suffer bad symptoms (non permanent) and I guess I will state that now. The resulting backlash on the unknown amount of people (some who will suffer and/or die probably) has me pretty pissed off.
if stadiums and arenas are being shuttered for years, we are likely living in a Mad Max type society
Who would even implement such a thing? No one who would survive an election, that's for sure.
no reason the leagues can't play. It just wont be in front of fans. If I were pro sports league, I would quarantine my teams immediately and looking into a central location to play. No travel, no fans, etc. Keep the players, coaches, umpires, etc in a bubble and play the games all day long. Could have games going in a month. Great tv ratings.
Plenty of those ignorant self-centered a holes going to Florida beaches as well.
The Governor there finally coming around (?) after blaming everyone else.
More young people showing up. US doctors are seeing the same thing they saw in Italy. The first waves are the older/sicker and then the young show-up.
Many New York Coronavirus Patients Are Young, Surprising Doctors
Older patients remain most at risk, but hospitals are being hit with more and more younger cases
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic
Many New York Coronavirus Patients Are Young, Surprising Doctors
Older patients remain most at risk, but hospitals are being hit with more and more younger cases
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic
Ash was ahead of his time, he was just trying to protect us by emptying the stadium.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
One more week, then we turn the corner (April 10 projected peak for NJ). Will be over in May (for NJ). Fingers crossed.
One more week, then we turn the corner (April 10 projected peak for NJ). Will be over in May (for NJ). Fingers crossed.
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I was hoping for this, but more and more its clear we really know little of what this virus is about, until we do I don't know how we can project anything, especially when its becoming more clear that the Chinese government has not been forthcoming of its impact in their country.
Can someone explain how these numbers are projected? Does it assume we maintain the current level of social distancing/closures? How does this not start increasing again once we loosen the restrictions and people start heading back to work?
I will post an interesting projection model based on three different scenarios. You can pick whatever state you want. I am hoping our peak is April 10th as stated above. However, these models present a later peak with either of the three scenarios.
https://covidactnow.org/
More reason for everyone to wear masks if true.
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I agree. There's a lot we don't know and these projections are really no more than me trying to predict a Rutgers score.
Based on several conversations I have had with front line doctors and nurses, it's looking more and more like most people are asymptomatic carriers or exhibit mild/moderate symptoms - i.e. fevers and/or coughs that would eventually subside. That's the good news.
The bad news is - most people are asymptomatic carriers. So a false sense of security make these folks walk around to exacerbate the spread of the virus. Combine that with a two week incubation period and you're looking at a long long time before this is over.
What people need to understand is even if it is true that most folks will be asymptomatic or suffer from mild/moderate symptoms, there is NO DEBATE that this virus is devastating to certain people. Fevers and cough quickly turn to sepsis within days, which leads to cytokine storm toxicity and the body's internal organs starts failing all over, leading to death. Investigational drugs like remdesivir and HCQ can turn the tide for someone in sepsis but if it's further along than that, then the prognosis is dim.
This is why for goodness FRIGGIN SAKE, even if you are fine, stay the EFF INSIDE!!!
‘Thanks for posting.’
We need an immediate lock down or at the very least strict compliance everywhere.
I'm going to repost a bit of advice from another thread which I think is important, especially since this thread is more travelled:
For anyone who has Covid-19 or thinks they have it, be very mindful if the symptoms go away or recede in severity and start to come back. In certain people, the body fights of the virus initially and people start to improve a bit or chug along feeling the same. Then a second wave hits. This is the cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and severely affects a small percentage of the cases. The gas exchange sacs in the lungs get broken down and the lungs fill up with fluid. This can occur quickly and lung capacity/destruction accelerates in a pretty much unprecedented and uncontrollable amount of time. I can't stress enough, to be vigilant and get medical attention/evaluated if it plays out this way. At the very least, you will be assessed and blood oxygen levels/lungs are screened, then sent home if ok with peace of mind. If not, you at least have caught the impending CRS early. The quicker the diagnosis begins, the better chance at a favorable outcome.
For anyone who has Covid-19 or thinks they have it, be very mindful if the symptoms go away or recede in severity and start to come back. In certain people, the body fights of the virus initially and people start to improve a bit or chug along feeling the same. Then a second wave hits. This is the cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and severely affects a small percentage of the cases. The gas exchange sacs in the lungs get broken down and the lungs fill up with fluid. This can occur quickly and lung capacity/destruction accelerates in a pretty much unprecedented and uncontrollable amount of time. I can't stress enough, to be vigilant and get medical attention/evaluated if it plays out this way. At the very least, you will be assessed and blood oxygen levels/lungs are screened, then sent home if ok with peace of mind. If not, you at least have caught the impending CRS early. The quicker the diagnosis begins, the better chance at a favorable outcome.
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Not sure about a month, but definitely relatively soon. However, the easiest sport to probably play with no fans would be golf, and it's outside and the players don't need to be next to or even near each other. Yet yesterday they cancelled a golf major in July. Not even postponed, but cancelled.
I cannot see stadiums full of fans until a vaccine is widely available, but the poster above who said it is early is right. What if 4 months from now 300k new ventilators have been made in the U.S. and there is a 5 min test that is widely available and no shortage of PPE, with expanded hospitals ready to handle? Surely in that instance things will be much more normal than they are now. Who knows, maybe they even find out by then that some huge number of people had the virus and never knew it.
I don't see stadiums full of fans for the next year or so, but you do have to wait and see on these things.
Many have said it will come back once restrictions are lifted. That is why what many are suggesting -- one death is too many and do everything to stop the virus at all costs -- is like going into a war without an exit strategy. Like it or not we are going to have to learn to live with it. I think it would be a huge mistake to not open schools normally by August for next school year.
Take time now to increase the capacity to handle the sick, and get more widespread testing, and acquire as much knowledge as possible. The goal needs to be to get things in a place where we achieve a good balance.
There are limitations to this modeling.
Known Limitations Only a small fraction of the world has been infected. It’s a new disease. Variables will change. That said, the broad shape of the curve reflects the current general scientific consensus, and is the best information we currently have. Some known limitations:
analysts use three variables. Infectious rates, removal rates and the size of the exposed population.
In other areas around, ie koreq, China, Italy the models have gotten then first two variables correct but the % exposed drastically wrong, both on the upside and downside.
Can run it with just players, coaches, refs. etc. By then should be able to test all of the above for CV prior to each game. TV will get great numbers.
Lots of excitement/chatter last night when Dr. Stephen Smith went on Fox last night basically screaming he had "the cure" for the coronavirus (link below), saying "Hydroxychloroquine is a game changer and the beginning of the end coronavirus pandemic." Sounds fantastic, but we have no idea how the study (using the combo of HCQ/azithromycin) was run and we know it wasn't randomized and controlled. It's also very unusual to go to the media before going to one's scientific peers first.
Below is what I posted on another thread on this, citing a separate study published yesterday from a group in Paris, concluding that this same combo had no efficacy in severe COVID patients. Bottom line is we simply don't know yet whether this combination has any efficacy, which is why we need the results from the ongoing larger, controlled trials.
https://techstartups.com/2020/04/01...ous-disease-specialist-dr-stephen-smith-says/
Below is what I posted on another thread on this, citing a separate study published yesterday from a group in Paris, concluding that this same combo had no efficacy in severe COVID patients. Bottom line is we simply don't know yet whether this combination has any efficacy, which is why we need the results from the ongoing larger, controlled trials.
https://techstartups.com/2020/04/01...ous-disease-specialist-dr-stephen-smith-says/
I've been taking my temp multiple times a day for six weeks. Been around 98.2 the whole time (according to my thermometer anyway)
This "study" seems to point toward something I've been thinking - that we need to test these drugs in people who are relatively early in the disease course, to prevent them from deteriorating to the point where they need ICU treatment or ventilator support. A lot of what was reported early, especially negative or inconclusive results, seemed to be people who were already in severe or critical condition. Assuming those people are suffering more from immune system dysfunction (cytokine storm type thing) I would not necessarily expect anti-viral drugs to have much impact for them. We need to prevent them from getting to that point.
Yeah, I've been doing that too. Nice daily rhythm, typically around 97.5 in morning, up to between 98.5 and 99 in the late afternoon/evening, back down to 98 or lower late in the evening.
This shouldn't be news to anyone, especially "prestigious scientists," but maybe it actually is. Below is a post from 3/9 discussing transmission from breathing, citing the world expert Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP. Although if it were "easily" transmitted from breath, I think we'd see far more than about 0.1-0.2% people infected in just about every country.
Same here..I've had the sniffles and a cough. I was like uh oh. Seems to just be allergies. I'm walking solo daily and exposed to trees etc.
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