Those studies are ongoing and need hundreds, if not thousands of patients to see a real effect, since the vast majority of mildly symptomatic patients get better on their own, which makes determining efficacy very difficult without very large numbers of patients.
Well I just took my blood alcohol level, and it w............oh, wait, never mind. And, yes, I'm good also!
I agree the antibody therapy and the knowledge gained to determine who cannot get the virus again is definitely critical to a return to normal but I am just speaking of getting NJ fixed. The screwup in testing knowing we were 2 weeks behind NY at one time should have ramped up testing and it wasn’t and it was a fail. I want to hear the Abbott test or the Rutgers test(45 minutes involving spitting ) has been rolled out but at today’s presser with Murphy or at least the part I heard, no mention or questions about those tests. There was an admission that the existing tests have people waiting 10-12 days for results has been troublesome. Private companies should have been solicited , and engaged to administer tests earlier.
Interesting. What type of thermometer?
Temp can vary throughout the day, although the example above is more than one would expect; also different people have different "baseline temps." Mine is 98.7F, my wife's is around 98.4F and our son's is 97.4F (and these rarely vary more than 0.2-0.3F around the mean), which was really important to know, since he got sick a ton as a kid (immuncompromised as I mentioned) and 98.6F generally meant a low grade fever for him and over 100F was a significant fever. Whenever he got above 102F and was having breathing problems (has asthma), we'd go to the ER to get nebulizer therapy (about 5-6 times when he was a kid, mostly when he was under 3, when it's harder to do this at home), as per his doc's instructions.
That graph does not bode well for keeping deaths under 2K/day. Will definitely be one of the more important graphs to track through April/May when looking at the endgame.It took 7 days, sadly, as we just hit 1049 deaths in one day on Wednesday. would be a small "victory" of sorts (relative to where we are now, not in general) if we can stay below 2000/day, as it's at least well below the ~4300/day we'd expect if we had the same per capita deaths as Italy (they had a sustained 780/day for 9 days and we have 5.5X their population). Also, as expected our case fatality rate has jumped up to around 2.5%, since we're now seeing more deaths per day, as deaths lag cases.
If we can keep it under 2000/day, over a 10-20 day peak, we have a shot at keeping to under 60K total deaths and could probably prevent overwhelming most of our hospitals. If we go to Italy's rates per capita, we'll likely see at least 100K deaths; both of those numbers suck, but 100K certainly is much worse and at those rates, we'd likely overwhelm many of our hospitals.
Also as of Monday, NY had slightly over 50% of the total deaths in the US, but by Wednesday that dropped to 43%, meaning the rest of the country is accelerating faster than NY and much of the rest of the country is not as prepared as NY has been, at least with regard to social distancing, as many states have either no stay at home orders or weak ones. We're simply not being proactive enough - need a nationwide "stay at home" order now, like the Surgeon General implied today.
There is definitely a daily pattern, I think most people have it but not sure how large it is or whether my range is larger than typical. But it's been very regular for me, some small variations day to day but overall very similar. I actually still have one of the old style mercury thermometers which is what I use most of the time. Have an electronic one that usually decides it's "done" a little early (runs a couple of tenths of a degree below the mercury one).
One more reason that not having a national shutdown and better federal leadership is a travesty. These states without social distancing (SD) are as dumb as the entire US was a month ago in not seeing what was coming and how to mitigate it, based on the SK/China models, but now that we know a lot more about how SD can help, even in NYC, for these other states to not be following the SD model is just nuts and that's on the Administration.
SD and reducing travel works (along with aggressive testing/tracing/quarantining), as per Fauci's comment below, which is being borne out in the WA and NY now showing the slowest case growth rates in the US. See the table below showing the differences in case growth rates in selected states and it's easy to see why the growth is so much more in those states that are highest, as those are the states in the map from the Times that generally haven't been practicing SD/reducing travel.
Other areas reduced travel weeks ago, the data show, especially in California, New York and Washington, which were the first to experience large outbreaks. Most people have essentially stopped traveling in those places for weeks, the data show, a sign that they are taking the measures seriously. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said on Tuesday that changes in behavior were already bringing down the level of new cases in those places.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-distancing.html?referringSource=articleShare
It also doesn't help that we have some morons as governors. It's almost unfathomable that the GA governor in announcing the stay at home order yesterday said that he "just learned that the virus transmits asymptomatically," which has been known for well over a month. These states without restrictions are very likely going to be hit even harder.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...just-learned-it-transmitted-asymptomatically/
" LEADERSHIP IS A TRAVESTY"One more reason that not having a national shutdown and better federal leadership is a travesty. These states without social distancing (SD) are as dumb as the entire US was a month ago in not seeing what was coming and how to mitigate it, based on the SK/China models, but now that we know a lot more about how SD can help, even in NYC, for these other states to not be following the SD model is just nuts and that's on the Administration.
SD and reducing travel works (along with aggressive testing/tracing/quarantining), as per Fauci's comment below, which is being borne out in the WA and NY now showing the slowest case growth rates in the US. See the table below showing the differences in case growth rates in selected states and it's easy to see why the growth is so much more in those states that are highest, as those are the states in the map from the Times that generally haven't been practicing SD/reducing travel.
Other areas reduced travel weeks ago, the data show, especially in California, New York and Washington, which were the first to experience large outbreaks. Most people have essentially stopped traveling in those places for weeks, the data show, a sign that they are taking the measures seriously. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said on Tuesday that changes in behavior were already bringing down the level of new cases in those places.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-distancing.html?referringSource=articleShare
It also doesn't help that we have some morons as governors. It's almost unfathomable that the GA governor in announcing the stay at home order yesterday said that he "just learned that the virus transmits asymptomatically," which has been known for well over a month. These states without restrictions are very likely going to be hit even harder.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...just-learned-it-transmitted-asymptomatically/
One more reason that not having a national shutdown and better federal leadership is a travesty. These states without social distancing (SD) are as dumb as the entire US was a month ago in not seeing what was coming and how to mitigate it, based on the SK/China models, but now that we know a lot more about how SD can help, even in NYC, for these other states to not be following the SD model is just nuts and that's on the Administration.
SD and reducing travel works (along with aggressive testing/tracing/quarantining), as per Fauci's comment below, which is being borne out in the WA and NY now showing the slowest case growth rates in the US. See the table below showing the differences in case growth rates in selected states and it's easy to see why the growth is so much more in those states that are highest, as those are the states in the map from the Times that generally haven't been practicing SD/reducing travel.
Other areas reduced travel weeks ago, the data show, especially in California, New York and Washington, which were the first to experience large outbreaks. Most people have essentially stopped traveling in those places for weeks, the data show, a sign that they are taking the measures seriously. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said on Tuesday that changes in behavior were already bringing down the level of new cases in those places.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-distancing.html?referringSource=articleShare
It also doesn't help that we have some morons as governors. It's almost unfathomable that the GA governor in announcing the stay at home order yesterday said that he "just learned that the virus transmits asymptomatically," which has been known for well over a month. These states without restrictions are very likely going to be hit even harder.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...just-learned-it-transmitted-asymptomatically/
UV radiation should deactivate the virus quickly, so as long as the area/materials are getting some direct sunlight. Harder to know how long it would be viable on shaded surfaces/materials, but there should also be very, very little virus on lawns and roads and trees/shrubs to begin with, so I think you have one of the safest jobs out there. Just wash your hands frequently with soap and water and you'll likely be fine - your biggest risk is probably getting too close to your clients.
This should work for those cases where high viral load is present. The questions I have revolve around the scalability and whether the process could be made efficient enough to treat people before they wind up with full blown ARDS and on a ventilator. Can this be scaled up to treat hundreds or thousands of patients in an efficient manner?
You're right about that risk of the hug, unless you're both 100% isolated from others. With regard to the blower, I really have a hard time thinking there's a risk, especially with tiny viral loads on anything on the ground and UV protection - maybe at most wearing a dust mask and goggles, which you should be doing anyway (fine particulates over years can damage eyesight - nothing to do with viruses - that and protection from projectiles is why I always wear full goggles when cutting grass or blowing leaves).
it's also why wearing masks is the sensible thing to do, but the federal authorities are still stopping short of saying so.
I wonder if we're done as a hugging society, not even sure the handshake will be spared.
I think LA mayor recommended now De Blasio too. Any sort of facial covering.
Yea but I believe the difference is large droplets vs smaller aerosolized droplets which can travel farther and where a mask being worn by an infected person, especially asymptomatic, can help contain both to some degree.
Coughing/sneezing into elbow is good but not everyone does that. And we also know that people who have no coughs or sneezes can spread it too asymptomatically. Social distancing helps all of this but if it can spread in an aerosolized manner with smaller droplets, I think the size of 5 microns one SK Dr. said, then sounds like it can be even more transmissible depending on the circumstance. More reason for the universal facial covering to provide a sort of herd protection.
Well there’s that patient 31 in SK responsible for 1100+ infections...singing in a choir was one thing she did while infected. Same for a choir in Washington where 45 out of 60 were infected and reports say no outward sickness and no contact. In these clusters you see pop up it seems to have been easily transmissible and I can’t imagine all of them were created by one crazy cougher or sneezer.
Way too late for the current crisis, though and end of the year is a stretch (unless they decide to go with an emergency use approach - which they won't do if the antibody-plasma approach buys us the time we need until we have a fully safe vaccine fully evaluated for safety and efficacy in phase III clinical trials, which is very unlikely to be available before next February. Trust me.
