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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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So there seem to sources indicating that this virus may have escaped from a lab in China from a guy and his girlfriend which spread to the wet markets

I mean when this was suggested here anyone saying this was immediately wacked down and told this didnt happen. Im not saying it did but its not a conspiracy theory either

There are still people here who want to believe anything coming from China...we shouldn't believe anything from them

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ng-wuhan-lab-contamination-coronavirus-theory

The U.S. military and intelligence community are investigating the theory that the novel coronavirus may have originated from an accidental contamination from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, rather than from a wet market, as has been widely speculated.

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed to reporters on Tuesday that military intelligence was looking into it.

“On the lab piece ... it should be no surprise to you that we’ve taken a keen interest in that, and we’ve had a lot of intelligence take a hard look at that,” Milley said. “And I would just say at this point that it’s inconclusive — although the weight of evidence seems to indicate natural. But we don’t know for certain.”
 
So there seem to sources indicating that this virus may have escaped from a lab in China from a guy and his girlfriend which spread to the wet markets

I mean when this was suggested here anyone saying this was immediately wacked down and told this didnt happen. Im not saying it did but its not a conspiracy theory either

There are still people here who want to believe anything coming from China...we shouldn't believe anything from them

Agree, we shouldn't believe anything coming from the Chinese government. I'd also be suspicious of non-government sources in China, because they could be influenced by the government narrative.

And while it is certainly possible that this virus could have escaped from a lab, there is not really any evidence that happened. And any reasonable explanation of that would have to be somewhat convoluted. The simplest explanation is that the virus came from another species. Cross-species transfer of viruses is not that unusual.
 
EXCLUSIVE: COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan laboratory not as a bioweapon, but as part of China's effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States, multiple sources who have been briefed on the details of early actions by China's government and seen relevant materials tell Fox News.

This may be the "costliest government coverup of all time," one of the sources said.

The sources believe the initial transmission of the virus was bat-to-human, and that "patient zero" worked at the laboratory, then went into the population in Wuhan.

Documents detail early efforts by doctors at the lab and early efforts at containment. The Wuhan wet market initially identified as a possible point of origin never sold bats, and the sources tell Fox News that blaming the wet market was an effort by China to deflect blame from the laboratory, along with the country's propaganda efforts targeting the U.S. and Italy.

Americans were originally helping train the Chinese in a program called PREVENT well before the Chinese started working on this virus. The French government helped the Chinese set up the Wuhan lab.

China "100 percent" suppressed data and changed data, the sources tell Fox News. Samples were destroyed, contaminated areas scrubbed, some early reports erased, and academic articles stifled.

STATE DEPT LEAKED CABLES RENEW THEORIES ON ORIGINS OF CORONAVIRUS

There were doctors and journalists who were "disappeared" warning of the spread of the virus and its contagious nature and human to human transmission. China moved quickly to shut down travel domestically from Wuhan to the rest of China, but did not stop international flights from Wuhan.

Additionally, the sources tell Fox News the World Health Organization (WHO) was complicit from the beginning in helping China cover its tracks.
 
Yes, flu deaths are based on models, but the models have been vetted pretty carefully and they're at least run consistently from year to year, so comparisons can be made. I don't know enough about the models to know if they're significantly underpredicting or overpredicting flu deaths and my guess is you don't either. The one thing we can likely all agree on is that even though CV death counts likely won't be perfect (our systems are under great strain, so tracking probably suffers), I'm sure they'll be an actual count and will be at laest somewhat more accurate that flu death estimates from models.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm


Its pretty obvious most models are problematic . A person can feel safe betting against them. Many doctors can't even remember a "flu death." Mike Francesa had a top heart doctor on last week and he said he cant remember a flu death. Most people cant tell you anyone they know who died of flu. I cant recall a celeb death article mentioning the flu. No trace of the these amazing flu deaths show-up anywhere except models. These inflated flu models are why people found it easy to dismiss CV19.
 
Sure, they'll come in due time. But what's your logic here? You think Chinese scientists (not the government here) designed and executed a randomized trial JUST to show HCQ doesn't work? And an open label one at that (where it's far easier to conceptually doctor the numbers)? Your argument literally makes no sense.

If that's what you want to believe, go right ahead
 
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Its pretty obvious most models are problematic . A person can feel safe betting against them. Many doctors can't even remember a "flu death." Mike Francesa had a top heart doctor on last week and he said he cant remember a flu death. Most people cant tell you anyone they know who died of flu. I cant recall a celeb death article mentioning the flu. No trace of the these amazing flu deaths show-up anywhere except models. These inflated flu models are why people found it easy to dismiss CV19.

https://www-nbcnewyork-com.cdn.ampp...ar-old-girl-dies-from-flu-new-jersey/1579261/
 
EXCLUSIVE: COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan laboratory not as a bioweapon, but as part of China's effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States, multiple sources who have been briefed on the details of early actions by China's government and seen relevant materials tell Fox News.

This may be the "costliest government coverup of all time," one of the sources said.

The sources believe the initial transmission of the virus was bat-to-human, and that "patient zero" worked at the laboratory, then went into the population in Wuhan.

Documents detail early efforts by doctors at the lab and early efforts at containment. The Wuhan wet market initially identified as a possible point of origin never sold bats, and the sources tell Fox News that blaming the wet market was an effort by China to deflect blame from the laboratory, along with the country's propaganda efforts targeting the U.S. and Italy.

Americans were originally helping train the Chinese in a program called PREVENT well before the Chinese started working on this virus. The French government helped the Chinese set up the Wuhan lab.

China "100 percent" suppressed data and changed data, the sources tell Fox News. Samples were destroyed, contaminated areas scrubbed, some early reports erased, and academic articles stifled.

STATE DEPT LEAKED CABLES RENEW THEORIES ON ORIGINS OF CORONAVIRUS

There were doctors and journalists who were "disappeared" warning of the spread of the virus and its contagious nature and human to human transmission. China moved quickly to shut down travel domestically from Wuhan to the rest of China, but did not stop international flights from Wuhan.

Additionally, the sources tell Fox News the World Health Organization (WHO) was complicit from the beginning in helping China cover its tracks.

Occam's Razor - every other virus in history that has impacted humans jumped from some bird or mammal to humans in zoonotic fashion, so all things being equal, that's, by far, the most likely explanation. It would probably be impossible to "prove" there couldn't be some other human mediated source, but it's far less likely. Also, does anyone think they really know that bats weren't in the Wuhan wet market?

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-zero-future-pandemic-180965213/
 
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Flu death or "flu related"

"ELIZABETH, NJ - The New Jersey Department of Health is continuing to investigate the cause of the passing of Daniela Genaro who attended Nicholas LaCorte - Peterstown School No. 3 after it was confirmed that the student had been diagnosed with influenza. Officials say, it "presently remains unclear whether or not the virus was the primary contributing factor to the child's passing."

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/elizabeth/articles/update-health-authorities-still-investigating-fl
 
Today was the first day of testing using the new saliva test developed at Rutgers. Samples were collected from 184 patients at the Kilmer Inspection Station near Rutgers' Livingston Campus. Testing was limited to First Responders and Middlesex County residents.

Rutgers indicates that they have the capability to analyze 10,000 samples a day. So hopefully the 184 tests performed scales up very quickly.
Pretty ridiculous to limit those tests to that group when a lack of testing is one of our biggest problems. Sure, give that group priority, but enough dicking around and start testing everyone and allow 10k people to get tested then if that's the capability. 184 tests is a wasted day. Will people ever learn?
 
Gee that is hard to believe . Are they saying China can’t be trusted ? Tedro probably was given a private island off China coast.A boatload of cash and some concubines from Beijing Province. The mind of Mao Tse Tung in all it’s glory. And yet there are many who still think the US is negligent.
 
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Pretty ridiculous to limit those tests to that group when a lack of testing is one of our biggest problems. Sure, give that group priority, but enough dicking around and start testing everyone and allow 10k people to get tested then if that's the capability. 184 tests is a wasted day. Will people ever learn?
I'm not going to slam them for a low volume on the first day. There is some value in piloting a small number to make sure they've got the process right. That's better than having 10,000 people show up and discovering there is some snafu.

But they do need to ramp up to 10,000 tests per day quickly. And they should replicate the testing site around the state (and around the nation) to conduct even more tests.
 
Can anyone give me a stat on how many hospitalizations there are a year due to flu...heard in the radio 800k plus 2 years ago and 600k last year..is this accurate or not
About 525K US hospitalizations per season from flu (based on 2011-2017, a 7 year period) - this is also the product of a model where they take some actual measurements from a sample of hospitals in various areas and extrapolate to the country based on various factors. It's kind of like exit polling, except being hospitalized or not isn't open to interpretation - the biggest "errors" in the process are probably the high inaccuracy of the flu tests (20-30% false negatives, not unlike coronavirus, as they both use the PCR tests, which have limitations), but those errors shouldn't bias the data in either way, I wouldn't think (but I don't know for sure).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
 
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And while it is certainly possible that this virus could have escaped from a lab, there is not really any evidence that happened. And any reasonable explanation of that would have to be somewhat convoluted.

Pathogens have been escaping from labs for over a century, with far too many to recount.

"Slate" 4/11/2014
"A recent example is the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. Since then SARS has not re-emerged naturally, but there have been six escapes from virology labs: one each in Singapore and Taiwan, and four separate escapes at the same laboratory in Beijing."
 
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I'm not going to slam them for a low volume on the first day. There is some value in piloting a small number to make sure they've got the process right. That's better than having 10,000 people show up and discovering there is some snafu.

But they do need to ramp up to 10,000 tests per day quickly. And they should replicate the testing site around the state (and around the nation) to conduct even more tests.
184 is far too small of a pilot, especially in these circumstances and since it's already been piloted to get approval. They needed thousands, and should ramp up to 10,000/day max capacity this week and around the state at many other locations. Without adequate testing, we'll be stuck in quarantine far longer.
 
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Occam's Razor - every other virus in history that has impacted humans jumped from some bird or mammal to humans in zoonotic fashion, so all things being equal, that's, by far, the most likely explanation. It would probably be impossible to "prove" there couldn't be some other human mediated source, but it's far less likely. Also, does anyone think they really know that bats weren't in the Wuhan wet market?

So you believe that a hithertofor unknown virus exploded suddenly in a city of 11.3 million as a result of transmission from wild animals, rather than as a result of that virus having escaped from one of the two high-level virology research labs located in the very heart of the city? All things are clearly not equal in your comparison.

Why are you clinging so desperately to the quaint notion that Chinese labs could not have possibly been the source? Nowhere do I suggest it was intentional.
 
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Its pretty obvious most models are problematic . A person can feel safe betting against them. Many doctors can't even remember a "flu death." Mike Francesa had a top heart doctor on last week and he said he cant remember a flu death. Most people cant tell you anyone they know who died of flu. I cant recall a celeb death article mentioning the flu. No trace of the these amazing flu deaths show-up anywhere except models. These inflated flu models are why people found it easy to dismiss CV19.
You've been making a lot of great posts in this thread, thanks. This one is not so great, though - it's not that flu-related deaths might not be overestimated, as the models have a fairly wide range, given the limitations of modeling - it's that you're trying to establish a conclusion based on anecdotes. Those simply don't help in the scientific world, other than to maybe prompt someone to establish a hypothesis and test it.

I've worked with a bunch of doctors and clinicians over the years in infectious disease research at Merck (not my primary area, but we're usually on the same cross-functional program leadership teams) and I've had conversations with a few of those folks about influenza and flu vaccines over the years. And almost every one of them thinks that seasonal influenza is a very serious disease and "under-feared" since it's so familiar and many of them had practices with obvious flu deaths - which is why they usually can't understand why someone wouldn't get a flu vaccine.

Those are anecdotes, too and don't "prove" the CDC numbers are correct (I don't recall conversations that got that deep into the models), but these were also people who should know more than a heart doctor or a gossip columnist.
 
BULLETIN-The blue waters of the Delaware River kill the virus.
They must.Why else would the Retro Fitness' in South Jersey be closed while all of them across the river in Pennsylvania are open till 11 PM(Except in Philadelphia).The same is true in Delaware and Maryland.Forget HCL.Give all patients a bottle of Delaware Lite.
 
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You've been making a lot of great posts in this thread, thanks. This one is not so great, though - it's not that flu-related deaths might not be overestimated, as the models have a fairly wide range, given the limitations of modeling - it's that you're trying to establish a conclusion based on anecdotes. Those simply don't help in the scientific world, other than to maybe prompt someone to establish a hypothesis and test it.

I've worked with a bunch of doctors and clinicians over the years in infectious disease research at Merck (not my primary area, but we're usually on the same cross-functional program leadership teams) and I've had conversations with a few of those folks about influenza and flu vaccines over the years. And almost every one of them thinks that seasonal influenza is a very serious disease and "under-feared" since it's so familiar and many of them had practices with obvious flu deaths - which is why they usually can't understand why someone wouldn't get a flu vaccine.

Those are anecdotes, too and don't "prove" the CDC numbers are correct (I don't recall conversations that got that deep into the models), but these were also people who should know more than a heart doctor or a gossip columnist.


Everyone who designs a study and creates a model begins with some sort of assumption. The bureaucrats and the corporations involved in this stuff aren't likely going to be looking for reasons they shouldn't exist and/or sell products. Even calling the flu shot a "vaccine" is a stretch.

Currently, exaggerated studies and models are the the coin of the realm. I giggle just looking at the supposed flu deaths. Those numbers are right in there with the dying polar bears that never happened.


"Michael Osterholm, who led the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy 2012 review on flu vaccines, recommended getting the vaccine but criticized its promotion, saying, "We have overpromoted and overhyped this vaccine...it does not protect as promoted. It's all a sales job: it's all public relations".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

Bingo
 
I have diamonds on the soles of my shoes.

Cuz... ya know... that's one way to ease those walkin' blues.

Diamonds on the soles of my shoes.

FWIW, I now know 2 people who have died of C-19.

So I think the comparisons to the flu are about shot.
 
So the yearly Flu death counts that we hear about are not an actual count at all?

It's a guesstimate?

That's crazy.
 
Pretty ridiculous to limit those tests to that group when a lack of testing is one of our biggest problems. Sure, give that group priority, but enough dicking around and start testing everyone and allow 10k people to get tested then if that's the capability. 184 tests is a wasted day. Will people ever learn?
Is there a lab issue to consider here? Or is that the 10K you mention?
 
I have diamonds on the soles of my shoes.

Cuz... ya know... that's one way to ease those walkin' blues.

Diamonds on the soles of my shoes.

FWIW, I now know 2 people who have died of C-19.

So I think the comparisons to the flu are about shot.
I know 1 person who died, know of 2 others, and know 4 people who have been hospitalized and recovered, and 3 more who have been extremely sick at home. The flu ain't got nothing on this virus.
 
So you believe that a hithertofor unknown virus exploded suddenly in a city of 11.3 million as a result of transmission from wild animals, rather than as a result of that virus having escaped from one of the two high-level virology research labs located in the very heart of the city? All things are clearly not equal in your comparison.

Why are you clinging so desperately to the quaint notion that Chinese labs could not have possibly been the source? Nowhere do I suggest it was intentional.

Yes, significantly more likely, IMO, especially given the genetic angle on this. Having the coronavirus jumping from bats to humans, directly, in the case some are laying out, is problematic, in that the bat version of SARS-CoV-2 only shares about 96% of its DNA with the human version, which is a pretty low number.

For the original SARS in 2003, most think that the same horseshoe bats were the original source of that coronavirus, but that it probably "jumped" to civets in one of those wet markets and then from civets to humans, since the civet and human version of SARS are much more closely related (99.8% genetic overlap).

But if the current CV2 virus didn't jump directly from bats to humans, an intermediate host animal would need to be found with a much greater genetic match to the human version to be convinced that that is the true source and so far researchers haven't found that match. A month or so ago, some thought it could've been pangolins, but it turns out that the pangolin coronavirus only shares about 90-92% of DNA with CV2, which isn't close enough.

So the search continues for an intermediate host since, as per below, not only do the bat and human versions of the CV2 virus only share 96% of their DNA, but the critical RBD (receptor binding domain) portion of the virus, which allows the virus to latch on to and enter a cell have significant differences. Again, none of this "proves" that CV2 couldn't have jumped from bats to humans, but it simply makes it very unlikely. We need a good genetic virologist to post in this thread, lol.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

Not close enough
Three similar comparison studies were posted on bioRxiv last week. One of those papers — by an international research group , posted on 18 February — found2 that coronaviruses in frozen cell samples from illegally trafficked pangolins shared between 85.5% and 92.4% of their DNA with the virus found in humans.

Two other papers published on 20 February, from groups in China, also studied coronaviruses from smuggled pangolins. The viruses were 90.23%3 and 91.02%4 similar, respectively, to the virus that causes COVID-19.

The genetic similarity should be higher than reported in these studies before the host can be identified, says Arinjay Banerjee, who studies coronaviruses at McMaster University in Hamilton, Canada. He notes that the SARS virus shared 99.8% of its genome with a civet coronavirus, which is why civets were considered the source. If pangolins are the origin of the current outbreak, says Banerjee, it is not the pangolins in these studies.

Key differences
So far, the closest match to the human coronavirus has been found in a bat in China’s Yunnan province. A study5 published on 3 February found that the bat coronavirus shared 96% of its genetic material with the virus that causes COVID-19. Bats could have passed the virus to humans, but there are key differences between the RBD sites in the two viruses. This suggests that this specific bat coronavirus did not directly infect people, but could have been transmitted it to people through an intermediate host, say researchers.
 
So the yearly Flu death counts that we hear about are not an actual count at all?

It's a guesstimate?

That's crazy.
Well, maybe we should spend more money on infectious disease research and pandemic prevention, since to do an actual count involves, well, actual resources and a lot more $$, which nobody has wanted to spend for a long time. At least the last administration started to near its end, while this one tried to cut pandemic/infectious disease funding at every turn (which Congress largely restored).
 
Funny how many of the educated on this board refused to believe that China knew and was responsible. Actually belligerent at times but you’ll never see any of them say some on here we’re not conspiracy nut jobs.


exactly my thoughts....they need a scientific study to explain it all for them
 
Latest Research: Coronavirus May Spread Up to 13 Feet, Also on the Soles of Shoes

https://ourcommunitynow.com/news-na...read-up-to-13-feet-also-on-the-soles-of-shoes
Sigh. I feel like I'm putting out fires all day sometimes. This is another study that needs some better science perspective around it, both in the original study and in the regular press articles that inevitably follow and latch onto pieces of info and don't present them well.

First, people need to read the conclusions of this study, which were done in COVID hospital wards which are off-the-charts more dangerous places than Shop Rite or your local park. The CDC article only talks about risks to health care workers in such high risk areas full of COVID patients. It never says anywhere that these are common risks outside of such settings, although being close to any infected patient can be a risk, of course.

Second, the last part of the conclusions says this about limitations of the study: "Our study has 2 limitations. First, the results of the nucleic acid test do not indicate the amount of viable virus. Second, for the unknown minimal infectious dose, the aerosol transmission distance cannot be strictly determined."

What this means is they weren't actually testing the samples to see if they contained viable, transmissible viruses, which can only be assessed by the PT-PCR assay - they were using a nucleic acid test which only tells one if there are genetic "shards" of viruses that are likely not viable.

If this study and the 27-foot super sneeze study truly represented reality, everyone on the planet would already be infected with the coronavirus. The fact that <0.2% of the planet is known to be infected argues against these being correct. Unless we find out that there are far more infected but asymptomatic people out there, as some have theorized (up to 30% by some epidemiologists), which would actually be great news, as they'd likely be immune and would greatly reduce future transmissions, as 30% of the potential targets would no longer exist. Which is why we need massive antibody testing yesterday.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/2...Shoes&utm_source=ocn_story&utm_medium=website
 
I know 1 person who died, know of 2 others, and know 4 people who have been hospitalized and recovered, and 3 more who have been extremely sick at home. The flu ain't got nothing on this virus.
I know 4 who have died and over a dozen who are infected, some of whom are still sick and some of whom have recovered after a very difficult battle. I probably know of 2 people in my entire life how died from the flu, both of whom were elderly.
 
Are these antibody tests that got FDA approved today legit? Sounds like we might have some quick access to them from Chembio based out in Long Island.
 
You've been making a lot of great posts in this thread, thanks. This one is not so great, though - it's not that flu-related deaths might not be overestimated, as the models have a fairly wide range, given the limitations of modeling - it's that you're trying to establish a conclusion based on anecdotes. Those simply don't help in the scientific world, other than to maybe prompt someone to establish a hypothesis and test it.

I've worked with a bunch of doctors and clinicians over the years in infectious disease research at Merck (not my primary area, but we're usually on the same cross-functional program leadership teams) and I've had conversations with a few of those folks about influenza and flu vaccines over the years. And almost every one of them thinks that seasonal influenza is a very serious disease and "under-feared" since it's so familiar and many of them had practices with obvious flu deaths - which is why they usually can't understand why someone wouldn't get a flu vaccine.

Those are anecdotes, too and don't "prove" the CDC numbers are correct (I don't recall conversations that got that deep into the models), but these were also people who should know more than a heart doctor or a gossip columnist.
How much money is there in fighting "the flu"?

If the models showed hardly anyone dies from "the flu", how many fewer doses of vaccine would be consumed? How much money would be lost by those providing protection?
 
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Convalescent plasma-antibody treatment update

Well, we're still waiting on data from convalescent plasma treatments where antibody-rich plasma from recovered COVID patients are infused into sick to very sick current COVID patients (or even as a preventative). A number of clinical trials are ongoing, but results supposedly aren't expected for another week or two.

However, lots of chatter out there about "promising results" and many people are desperate to find a way to get this treatment for their very sick loved ones, as per the article. Some doctors aren't pursuing this option despite the FDA now allowing it (4/13 emergency use authorization) in serious cases, based on a doctor's recommendation (3rd link below).

The biggest problem though, is there are not enough donors, so there's not enough plasma available. IMO, this should be made into a national appeal with PSAs and such to get people to donate blood/plasma to potentially save lives. If these ongoing trials prove successful, demand will go through the roof and we won't have nearly enough plasma from recovered patients. At the very least, we should at least be ramping up collection in case the results are good.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...9-families-vie-access-plasma-therapy-n1183946

https://www.click2houston.com/news/...wing-promise-in-houston-coronavirus-patients/

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-...-investigational-covid-19-convalescent-plasma
 
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