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OT: Electric vehicles

retired711 said:
A dying man can report the truth. Indeed, in the law statements by a dying person are admitted even over hearsay objections. Musk's decision not to agree with the "lying" part is pretty good evidence that the story is true.
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There's a lie right in the headline. Do you think the Tesla team woke up today and realized Chinese EVs are good vehicles at an affordable price? Elon has been praising Chinese EVs for years. BYD recently said they have no immediate plans to expand EV sales outside of China.

Tesla isn't competing with other EVs. That's the media narrative and most of the people in this thread believe it too. Nothing Tesla does indicates competition w other EVs, but the lie lives on. 90% of vehicle sales are still ICE. They benchmark a leading ICE vehicle and produce a better EV. CT is the most recent example as it was benchmarked against the Ford F150 ICE.

As for the article, the robotaxi and the $25k vehicle are the same platform. The development of this platform is well documented in Walter Isaacson's biography. Elon was pushing for straight to robotaxi ( no steering wheel, no pedals), while others pushed back given the possibility FSD won't be ready. A compromise was reached that both would be produced.

It may be possible that V12 FSD is progressing so rapidly that indeed Tesla is going straight to robotaxi. I'm still doubtful of this. What I am 100% sure of is the $25k Tesla will be produced and any change in plans has NOTHING to do with Chinese EVs.
 
retired711 said:
This decision makes no business sense to me. He really doesn't think he can produce a car that can compete with cheap Chinese EVs? (Maybe they'll always be cheaper, but why is it impossible to make an EV that would be more desirable than theirs?) Or does he think the robotaxi is so promising that he ought to put all his eggs in that basket even though autonomous vehicles have failed to take off? What Musk did to Twitter was enough to make me wonder if he really is a good businessman -- now I'm really dubious. Or is there something here that I'm not seeing?
Click to expand...
More to the story…
 
retired711 said:
We'll see how the robotaxi does -- I think it is a more difficult sell than persuading people to buy EVs, but he's rich and I'm not.
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I think you’re probably correct. Wealth doesn’t inherently make anybody right (or wrong), although many wealthy people seem to wind up thinking otherwise of themselves. Which is an instance of people being overly self-congratulatory.
 
I believe Elon’s first estimate was that full automation approval would come at around 5-6 billion miles. At this rate it looks like that time is coming soon.
 
WSJ- How Tesla Fell to Earth

wallstreetjournal-ny.newsmemory.com

FELL TO EARTH

Sales are dropping. It’s cutting prices. And its latest big bets hav
wallstreetjournal-ny.newsmemory.com


season 9 car going off cliff GIF
 
IMHO, an autonomous car can succeed in the marketplace only if it is perceived as safe. Having an accident rate lower (even much lower) than the "human" rate is not going to be enough. Anybody who has ever studied risk will tell you that people are much more tolerant of risks they think they can control than those imposed on them. People are willing to accept 40,000 motor vehicle deaths a year because they perceive that they can control their risk by their driving. (Most people think they are above-average drivers, which is, of course, impossible.) They're not going to be willing to tolerate anywhere near that number of deaths due to autonomous vehicles. Musk analogizes FSD to elevators -- but there are a grand total of 27 elevator-related deaths a year. Perhaps Musk is right in thinking that FSD technology is the future, but it seems to me it is a high-stakes gamble.

https://www.foryourrights.com/blog/elevator-accidents-are-more-common-than-you-think/
 
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EVs are dead and now there is a huge electricity crisis looming. People know US electric is way sketchy. US cut 14% of its continuous production (grid has to be always on) while adding part-time, erratic, boutique sources like wind and solar. Adding EVs and AI data centers just crushes the collapsing infrastructure. Many states will lose businesses and residents fleeing overpriced and unreliable electric.

Top energy consultant Dave Walsh "We've got a huge disaster on out hands."

35 seconds in




The Coming Electricity Crisis​

Artificial-intelligence data centers and climate rules are pushing the power grid to what could become a breaking point.​

 
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ashokan said:
EVs are dead and now there is a huge electricity crisis looming. People know US electric is way sketchy. US cut 14% of its continuous production (grid has to be always on) while adding part-time, erratic, boutique sources like wind and solar. Adding EVs and AI data centers just crushes the collapsing infrastructure. Many states will lose businesses and residents fleeing overpriced and unreliable electric.

Top energy consultant Dave Walsh "We've got a huge disaster on out hands."

35 seconds in

View embedded media



The Coming Electricity Crisis​

Artificial-intelligence data centers and climate rules are pushing the power grid to what could become a breaking point.​

Click to expand...
“EVs are dead”

😂😂😂
 
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retired711 said:
IMHO, an autonomous car can succeed in the marketplace only if it is perceived as safe. Having an accident rate lower (even much lower) than the "human" rate is not going to be enough.
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All it will take is a few autonomous car accidents to rain on Musk’s parade. I also assume Musk will have an infrastructure in place to deal with charging, flats, repairs, towing, etc.? Does the car automatically return to a home base when its battery runs low? If it gets a flat tire does it have a towing service and repair garage lined up?
 
RUAldo said:
All it will take is a few autonomous car accidents to rain on Musk’s parade. I also assume Musk will have an infrastructure in place to deal with charging, flats, repairs, towing, etc.? Does the car automatically return to a home base when its battery runs low? If it gets a flat tire does it have a towing service and repair garage lined up?
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Teslas already automatically navigate to the nearest charger when the inputted trip exceeds battery life. Have to see how exactly they plan to roll this out, but the owner of the car would likely need to worry about flats, repairs, etc whether that’s an individual or Tesla
 
WhichReligionIsRight said:
Musk is an amazing innovator, but his recent schtick is reminiscent of Edison killing an elephant. It may be time for him to step away from Tesla.
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The irony of your comment is that Edison is alleged (probably wrongly) to have killed the elephant as part of his competition over direct vs. alternating current with Nikolai Tesla -- the namesake, of course, of Musk's company.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smar...r-captors-not-really-thomas-edison-180961611/
 
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RUDead said:
LOL. That is definitely not the purpose.

The purpose is to have storage in the event of a supply disruption like a hurricane, terrorist event, etc.

He drained it for political reasons and to raise money that he could spend at his discretion. He was never going to refill it regardless of the price.
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The fact someone doesn’t know these facts is scary.
 
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ashokan said:
EVs are dead and now there is a huge electricity crisis looming. People know US electric is way sketchy. US cut 14% of its continuous production (grid has to be always on) while adding part-time, erratic, boutique sources like wind and solar. Adding EVs and AI data centers just crushes the collapsing infrastructure. Many states will lose businesses and residents fleeing overpriced and unreliable electric.

Top energy consultant Dave Walsh "We've got a huge disaster on out hands."

35 seconds in

View embedded media



The Coming Electricity Crisis​

Artificial-intelligence data centers and climate rules are pushing the power grid to what could become a breaking point.​

Click to expand...
Even the countries biggest idiots see this coming. It’s almost like the rest believe in some form of fairy dust energy.

Good thing King Trump will be drilling like crazy in day 1. Blue staters are f’d though
 
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RUDeac said:
View embedded media


I had similar issues. V12 is just completely overrated by the Elon fanboys.
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I fail to see the point in systems like FSD where the driver must remain on high alert at all times. What level of intense laziness does a person have to have to find turning the wheel, braking, and throttle control to be too much effort? And who trusts such a lazy person to remain attentive while the car attempts to drive itself?

Until V2I/V2V is built out and working with high reliability, this whole self-driving thing remains idiotic.
 
mildone said:
I fail to see the point in systems like FSD where the driver must remain on high alert at all times. What level of intense laziness does a person have to have to find turning the wheel, braking, and throttle control to be too much effort? And who trusts such a lazy person to remain attentive while the car attempts to drive itself?

Until V2I/V2V is built out and working with high reliability, this whole self-driving thing remains idiotic.
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It seems to me that’s the only way to approval. They need a mass of “beta” miles driven before fsd will be approved. Nothing to do with laziness, just a formality
 
Rutgers Chris said:
It seems to me that’s the only way to approval. They need a mass of “beta” miles driven before fsd will be approved. Nothing to do with laziness, just a formality
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Until V2X is ready, it cannot work. A trillion miles won’t be enough.

And the systems can learn by simple observation while humans do the driving. They don’t need to physically operate the car to experience and learn from sensor data and context data and so on. Physically operating the car, for software, is trivial to solve and doesn’t require AI or practice.

The path to true fully automated driving runs through V2X. Maybe if a car was loaded up with $250K of sensors employing multiple overlapping technologies, it could get somewhat close without V2X. But even then, it’s gonna fail and loading the cars with more and better sensors ain’t gonna happen anyway ‘cause companies are looking to be profitable. So we all know the sensors will be done on the cheap.

This half-automated nonsense is going to lead to several huge lawsuits and that will see it shelved until V2X. Not just talking about Tesla, but all of them.
 
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
Autonomous vehicles don't necessarily need approval. The default in most states is to allow them.
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I'm sure you'll agree that public acceptance is more important -- and that a few bad accidents could well lead to a ban. Let's hope the technology proves to be safe; it would be a tremendous advance if we could eliminate the 40,000 deaths caused each year by motor vehicle accidents.
 
retired711 said:
I'm sure you'll agree that public acceptance is more important -- and that a few bad accidents could well lead to a ban. Let's hope the technology proves to be safe; it would be a tremendous advance if we could eliminate the 40,000 deaths caused each year by motor vehicle accidents.
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Thankfully, acceptance is up to regulators, and up until this points, NHTSA has been pretty good. If NHTSA continues to regulate based on data, I believe we will see this technology sooner rather than later. If politics and media sensationalism get involved..... that's another story.
 
mildone said:
I fail to see the point in systems like FSD where the driver must remain on high alert at all times. What level of intense laziness does a person have to have to find turning the wheel, braking, and throttle control to be too much effort? And who trusts such a lazy person to remain attentive while the car attempts to drive itself?

Until V2I/V2V is built out and working with high reliability, this whole self-driving thing remains idiotic.
Click to expand...
Agree. Tesla FSD is beyond stupid. I got an one-week suspension for not looking straight ahead and receiving 5 forced disengagements.
 
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
Thankfully, acceptance is up to regulators, and up until this points, NHTSA has been pretty good. If NHTSA continues to regulate based on data, I believe we will see this technology sooner rather than later. If politics and media sensationalism get involved..... that's another story.
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"Regulatory" acceptance is up to NHTA and state regulators. But the real question is whether the public will want to buy or use vehicles with the technology. Government approval of the technology does not guarantee that, although perhaps it should.
 
retired711 said:
"Regulatory" acceptance is up to NHTA and state regulators. But the real question is whether the public will want to buy or use vehicles with the technology. Government approval of the technology does not guarantee that, although perhaps it should.
Click to expand...
A lot of folks will buy stuff purely for it's tech-appeal. So I would guess that plenty of people will be willing to pay for it initially. But as more and more people use it, more and more problems will surface.

At which point, I think it likely that popular-sentiment from people who've had scary moments with it, along with all the people who are forced to share the road with (and the dangers of) this half-baked tech, will put the kibosh on it until V2X is deployed.

It'll be a while. But that's how I think it'll go.
 
retired711 said:
"Regulatory" acceptance is up to NHTA and state regulators. But the real question is whether the public will want to buy or use vehicles with the technology. Government approval of the technology does not guarantee that, although perhaps it should.
Click to expand...
Waymo is already operating in a few cities and customer feedback is positive.
As long as regulatory agencies follow the data, I'm in favor of less regulation, not more. Excessive regulation retards innovation.
 
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
Waymo is already operating in a few cities and customer feedback is positive.
As long as regulatory agencies follow the data, I'm in favor of less regulation, not more. Excessive regulation retards innovation.
Click to expand...

Waymo issues voluntary recall for self-driving car software

The recall follows two incidents in Phoenix in December
spectrumnews1.com spectrumnews1.com

www.propertycasualty360.com

Waymo robotaxis spark controversy with new L.A. fleet | PropertyCasualty360

Waymo released a new fleet of driverless vehicles in L.A. on March 14, with some hailing the robotaxi service as revolutionary and others wary of dangers.
www.propertycasualty360.com www.propertycasualty360.com


www.forbes.com

Driverless Cars Face Setbacks In San Francisco—Here’s What To Know About The City’s Problematic Robotaxi Rollout

General Motors-owned Cruise has agreed to slash its number of self-driving taxis after a series of hazardous incidents involving the autonomous cars.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
RUDeac said:
Agree. Tesla FSD is beyond stupid. I got an one-week suspension for not looking straight ahead and receiving 5 forced disengagements.
Click to expand...
Good. Driver's who don't understand the rules shouldn't be allowed to use the system. And, you're exaggerating. You can drive FSD without looking straight ahead at all times. When you get a reminder place your hands on the wheel, you can't ignore it.

I'm on my 3rd month of FSD. I supervise with the same amount of attention as when I drive. No strikes, no issues. The level of improvement is remarkable.
 
mildone said:

Waymo issues voluntary recall for self-driving car software

The recall follows two incidents in Phoenix in December
spectrumnews1.com spectrumnews1.com

www.propertycasualty360.com

Waymo robotaxis spark controversy with new L.A. fleet | PropertyCasualty360

Waymo released a new fleet of driverless vehicles in L.A. on March 14, with some hailing the robotaxi service as revolutionary and others wary of dangers.
www.propertycasualty360.com www.propertycasualty360.com


www.forbes.com

Driverless Cars Face Setbacks In San Francisco—Here’s What To Know About The City’s Problematic Robotaxi Rollout

General Motors-owned Cruise has agreed to slash its number of self-driving taxis after a series of hazardous incidents involving the autonomous cars.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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This is what happens when you reason via emotion rather than data. What are Waymo's accidents/mile? People will die or be injured in autonomous vehicles. The goal is not zero deaths/injuries. If the data shows a lower probably of injury, the technology should be allowed. In all of your crying about autonomy, you've never presented any data to back your claim. You're a clickbait whore.

You're complacent to the thousands of human caused accidents, deaths, and injuries. Why? Because you say autonomous technology won't work, without any evidence to support it other than your giant ego.
 
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
This is what happens when you reason via emotion rather than data. What are Waymo's accidents/mile? People will die or be injured in autonomous vehicles. The goal is not zero deaths/injuries. If the data shows a lower probably of injury, the technology should be allowed. In all of your crying about autonomy, you've never presented any data to back your claim. You're a clickbait whore.

You're complacent to the thousands of human caused accidents, deaths, and injuries. Why? Because you say autonomous technology won't work, without any evidence to support it other than your giant ego.
Click to expand...
You know... other than constant amusement/humor, and occasional mild irritation, I mostly an emotionless person about most topics. For example, I find your constant need to resort to name-calling amusing. "Clickbait whore"? "Giant ego"? Seriously? Is like conversing with a teenager here. 😂

Nobody expects zero deaths or injuries. Nobody is complacent about accidents. Not here, at least. That's you projecting arguments nobody here has made in an effort to deflect from the perfectly reasonable objections many of us here have put forth about automated driving tech since this thread started.

And no, it's not just me saying it won't work (until V2X). Try reading/watching something other than hyperbolistic propaganda put out by people with a financial interest in the tech. Who knows, you might actually learn something new. Might even save your life one day.

Until you do that, you're not being educated about the subject. You're just non-skeptically regurgitating propaganda.
 
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
Good. Driver's who don't understand the rules shouldn't be allowed to use the system. And, you're exaggerating. You can drive FSD without looking straight ahead at all times. When you get a reminder place your hands on the wheel, you can't ignore it.

I'm on my 3rd month of FSD. I supervise with the same amount of attention as when I drive. No strikes, no issues. The level of improvement is remarkable.
Click to expand...
I *think* you're smart enough to see the comic irony in the above post, given the context of your last few posts or so. I hope so because, otherwise, you're missing out on some good fun humor. 😀

You can laugh at yourself right? A little self-deprecation is good for the soul.
 
mildone said:
You know... other than constant amusement/humor, and occasional mild irritation, I mostly an emotionless person about most topics. For example, I find your constant need to resort to name-calling amusing. "Clickbait whore"? "Giant ego"? Seriously? Is like conversing with a teenager here. 😂

Nobody expects zero deaths or injuries. Nobody is complacent about accidents. Not here, at least. That's you projecting arguments nobody here has made in an effort to deflect from the perfectly reasonable objections many of us here have put forth about automated driving tech since this thread started.

And no, it's not just me saying it won't work (until V2X). Try reading/watching something other than hyperbolistic propaganda put out by people with a financial interest in the tech. Who knows, you might actually learn something new. Might even save your life one day.

Until you do that, you're not being educated about the subject. You're just non-skeptically regurgitating propaganda.
Click to expand...
Such a hypocrite.
I've asked you several times to assess Tesla's approach to autonomy using neutral networks and vision learning. I posted the videos. You refuse to watch. You know more than the leading AI engineers.

I've asked you several times to provide evidence that current autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles are less safe than human drivers. Again, nothing.

I've never said today's approach will be the ultimate answer. My stance has always been if the testing phase is safe, not perfect , it should proceed. Autonomous vehicle tech has steadily improved over the past few years. Ultimately, this technology will save lives and drastically lower the cost of transportation. A double win for humanity. Thankfully, NHTSA and other regulators agrees with my stance.
 
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