OT: Electric vehicles
- Thread starter BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap
- Start date
He’s just here to argue. And go on six hundred mile drives every week.
I don't have a dog in this fight (really, I don't), but your question above does not go to the most important issue. As I tried to point out in my post above, people do not assess risk in purely rational terms. If you were to say to people, "you should like autonomous vehicles because they would result in half the deaths caused by human drivers," they would reject the technology. People will accept risks that they think they can control, but not risks that are involuntarily imposed. There is a *lot* of literature on this; I know about it from my career in environmental law This is the very reason, in fact, why the vehicle and technology manufacturers feel they must recall autonomous vehicles upon the report of only one of two accidents; they know that people will accept little or no risk from autonomous vehicles.
Again with the insults. Is insulting people with whom you disagree a habitual knee-jerk reaction or do you truly believe that doing so will convince others to respect your opinions more?
First of all, we are in agreement that, eventually, automated driving will be plenty safe enough to use and should be safer than human drivers. Our disagreement is in the safety and viability of level 2 and 3 automation (i.e. self-driving) prior to the build out of V2X. And at the moment, from what I have seen, the NHTSA is only saying that Level 2 and 3 systems can only be used with certain constraints. This is from their website:
Currently, states permit a limited number of “self-driving” vehicles to conduct testing, research, and pilot programs on public streets and NHTSA monitors their safety through its Standing General Order. NHTSA and USDOT are committed to overseeing the safe testing, development and deployment of these systems – currently in limited, restricted and designated locations and conditions.
NHTSA aren't, so far as I've seen, taking any kind of position on V2X. They have this:
But that really doesn't get into V2X's impact on the viability of automated driving systems. Anyway, I'd say NHTSA are agreeing with both our stances. Extreme caution until it's proven safe enough to use on a larger scale.
This is interesting, because it shows failure stats. But also doesn't address V2X: https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-order-crash-reporting.
Our key difference is that I think that, the more the restrictions are eased, the more likely it will be that the systems will be found at fault for numerous accidents. And when that happens, I think the tech will be scaled way back again until V2X. While you think V2X isn't necessary for safe use of the tech in any unlimited fashion on public roads. Since we're talking about the future, we're both speculating.
As to assessing Tesla's tech, I already explained this. I'm not wasting time reading/watching Tesla, or Mercedes, or GM, or anybody else's publicly disseminated material on the subject. That material is as trustworthy as the publicly disseminated documents put out by cigarette manufacturers were, prior to them being forced to carry warning labels on their products. Pleasing shareholders has regularly proven to cause companies to be extremely misleading.
Even NHTSA has to be politically correct in how it publicly discusses this stuff, given how much investment has been made in it.
Meanwhile:
Tesla settles with Apple engineer's family who said Autopilot caused fatal Bay Area crash
Walter Huang was killed when his Tesla struck a concrete highway median in Silicon Valley on March 23, 2018. The National Transportation Safety Board, in its investigation, found that Autopilot was engaged for nearly 19 minutes before the fatal crash, when the car, traveling at 71 mph, veered...
And here's an old news report, related to the above link, about Tesla misleading us all:
Top Tesla engineer confesses he staged an inaccurate self-driving video at Elon Musk’s bidding
Not only did drivers intervene to take control in test runs, a test car accidentally crashed into a fence while trying to show the vehicle could park itself.
And here's an article that references comments made by one of your leading AI engineers (former head of AI infrastructure at Tesla).
Tesla's own former AI engineer trolls the company: 'full self-wiping'
Tesla’s own former head of AI infrastructure, Tim Zaman, is impressed with the latest FSD v12 Full Self-Driving software, but...
electrek.co
That article raises excellent questions. All of which you will either dismiss or ignore, in favor of tossing out some more insults, I suspect. 😉
Because driving cars is bad? 😂
In fact, I took the GT3 on an awesome drive yesterday, up along the Delaware north of Port Jervis, NY. Just over 4000 miles on it since late October, all with no destination other than having fun driving.
Oh the horror! 😱
For those of you who actually like driving your cars, I highly recommend heading up through High Point State park (in NJ) on Route 23. Then, after creeping through Port Jervis on Route 6 N (30mph, lots of LEOs), continue north on Route 6/97 which runs alongside the Delaware river. Many miles of extremely well paved road that twists and turns and has plenty of elevation changes.
Seriously. The 23 to 97 route is one of the best driving routes in reasonable range of central NJ. It's my favorite route to drive.
Ah... what am I saying. You're not here to discuss enjoying our cars by driving them.
You're just here to worship a car company and its CEO. 😉
BMW reported 28% increase in EV deliveries in the 1st qtr.
82K vehicles.
TSLA is still by far the leader, but the legacies(as well as startups) are without a doubt cutting into TSLA's sales.
82K vehicles.
TSLA is still by far the leader, but the legacies(as well as startups) are without a doubt cutting into TSLA's sales.
BMW has been quickly increasing its line of EVs, so it's not surprising it's seeing an increase in sales. But what is most remarkable to me is that BMW is making a profit on these vehicles. Here is a good and detailed story from (gasp!) the New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/...e_code=1.jk0.fDPD.0JNu5c1OrL2Y&smid=url-share
Odd take on the title "BMW is a Surprise winner in Electric Vehicles".
Not that surprising imo.
Rush hour drive through downtown Red Bank in the rain. FSD crushed it.
1 disengagement for FSD wanting to make a right on red at a no turn on red intersection.
2 highlights: FSD stopped at a green light to avoid blocking the intersection. Proceeded once traffic moved.
FSD paused in stop and go traffic for another vehicle to cross the intersection. Other car waved to thank me.
The system is trained by watching millions of hours of safe, courteous human drivers. It is now behaving as one.
Zero safety critical interventions.
1 disengagement for FSD wanting to make a right on red at a no turn on red intersection.
2 highlights: FSD stopped at a green light to avoid blocking the intersection. Proceeded once traffic moved.
FSD paused in stop and go traffic for another vehicle to cross the intersection. Other car waved to thank me.
The system is trained by watching millions of hours of safe, courteous human drivers. It is now behaving as one.
Zero safety critical interventions.
A agree. There is definitely an adoption curve for new technology. Doesn't mean it won't happen though, especially when it starts making financial sense.
Ha ha haha ha. What those tweets make most clear is that Alex needs to get a life. 😂
Who sits around and dreams up laughably warped comparisons like that just to thump their chest over something for which they played no part? You know, Alex, fishing boat sales greatly exceed luxury yacht sales too, Alex. Yay fishing boats? 😃
Porsche, Mercedes, BMW and Audi are in an entirely different market segment than Tesla. They aren't in a sales volume competition with Tesla. The only Tesla models that one might try to argue are somewhat comparable to German lux brands are the Plaid versions of the S and X. And even that is a stretch due to Teslas only being competitive in performance, not in luxury.
An actually meaningful comparison is Tesla w/Hyundai or Kia or Toyota or Honda. That is the brand segment in which Tesla plays.
Anyway, thanks for the post. Was quite chuckle-worthy and that's always a good thing.
You don't need something to tell you. I'd be delighted to tell you. Thanks so much for the opportunity. 🤣
When driving the GT3, roughly 3/4s of my drives are solo. By choice. About 1/4 is with friends who actually enjoy the experience. Not everyone enjoys driving for hours in a car as loud and stiff as a GT3. It's not built for comfort. It's built for extreme, nearly uncompromised, driving pleasure (a GT3 RS is entirely uncompromised and most people don't drive them on regular roads very often, if ever).
Anyway, solo, I can go as fast as I want, take corners as hard as I want, all without concern for a passenger's anxiety and physical comfort levels. With no passenger, I can keep the windows down, the better to hear the amazing engine and exhaust sounds, even when it's too cold out for most people's tolerance level.
It's still fun to do such drives with a passenger. But it's a necessarily much more subdued, and distracted fun. I can't drive the way I really want to drive when there's a passenger. I can't focus 100% on the driving experience. I do it, but I prefer being solo unless headed for some destination (e.g. a restaurant).
And it would be pretty inconsiderate of me to drive the same way I drive alone, with a passenger in the car. For me, these drives are joyous and meditative. I am never more relaxed than after a good long drive. And that doesn't happen with a passenger. Company is a different kind of joy and the car isn't really necessary.
I suspect that's not what you had in mind with your comment. But that's the fact, Jack. 😉
BTW, I have similar feelings about my Mazdaspeed 3. Just about everything I just said about the GT3 also applies to the MS3, especially after the mods I made to it over the years. There are meaningful aural differences, but the physical driving differences don't really leap out at you until you're on a road like NYS 97 north of Port Jervis and can really push it.
You know, after seeing you write about how great Teslas are, including yours, and what with your adoration of the company, I'm more than a little surprised you'd need to have this stuff explained to you. I'd have thought you already knew all this because you shared my enthusiasm for driving our cars.
Anyway, thanks again for the opportunity to talk about driving pleasure. Is always great fun and, IMO, way more interesting to discuss than car sales or self-driving. Feel free to share all the driving joys you've been having.
different strokes for different folks . .. I'm someone you would *never* want in your car and who would be perfectly happy with a car that drove itself -- so long as it was safe.
Cumulated deliveries? That's an interesting way of dodging the fact that BMW sales were up 28% yoy in Q1 while Tesla's were down 8%.
Let's keep in mind that neither measure is helpful. "Cumulated" ("cumulative" is what is meant) doesn't tell us the trends. If I sold a million cars ten years ago, my cumulative sales look wonderful even if I'm not selling any cars now. Percentages don't tell us much because it's easy to have a high percentage increase from a small base, e.g. an increase from 1 to 2 is a 100% increase. Percentages tell us even less here because BMW has been adding to its product line. What is more revealing is what sales were in a given quarter and what the trends are.
I'm a huge proponent of the different strokes for different folks philosophy. It's a way of life for me.
But I'm also a big adherent of the what goes around comes around principle. And that's what's in play in my post to Belly to which you responded. Belly and his fellow Teslerati, Religion, have given me and others a ton of crap in this thread, anytime our preferences don't align with theirs. They also constantly seek to silence opposing viewpoints.
So I've taken to reflecting some of their behavior back at them in my good natured, gently teasing, only slightly evil way. That they are so obviously bothered by it, and so unaware that I'm literally reflecting their crappy behavior back at them, makes it all the more fun.
Anyway, I suspect many are like you in that they'd love having a safe self-driving car. Me? I wouldn't ever want a car to drive me. That would ruin all the fun.
And, as someone with a reasonably good technical understanding/background in much of the technology involved, the only way I'd trust the tech is if manufacturers stopped cheaping out on the sensors and we had V2X working. Alas, that's not gonna happen anytime soon, at least not with those automakers engaging in a price war.
Frankly, I'm a bit irritated that V2V isn't already done. V2I is difficult. But V2V is far less challenging, technically, than attempting to automate driving with relatively cheap sensors in use today.
Waze and other products out there already employ a form of long-range non-standardized V2V using a combination of GPS and cellular data transmission. But what's needed purely for safety is short-range communication. For example, we can prevent more Teslas from ramming themselves into emergency vehicles if the emergency vehicles broadcast an alert that is picked up by approaching Teslas to make up for when the cheap onboard Tesla sensors fail.
I suppose that V2V is still quite challenging from a standards-adoption, cross-manufacturer-cooperation angle. But that kinda sucks. I mean, almost everyone's hopping on the Tesla charger bandwagon. So why can't they all get together on basic close-proximity V2V? Doing so would help everyone push out safer products sooner, presumably helping them make more money.
Those charts are disinformation. They're a fine example of how easy it is to weave a few facts together in such a way as to misleadingly promote a false narrative. And then dummies like Alex repost it, unknowingly making themselves look like morons to everyone with a clue. Or perhaps Alex isn't a total idiot, knows it's BS, but has an unrevealed motivation driving him to try to mislead people.
I’m surprised they are making a profit because when I was shopping around for my X5 the dealers were throwing crazy deals at me on EVs. I have a buddy that ended up with an I5 with every M bell and whistle with a sticker price of over $100K and he’s paying the same as I do for the X5.
No worries. They can cut out some more sensors. Or perhaps they've found a company in China that will manufacture the sensors for half the cost. Comforting.
Plenty more work to do. But I won't be surprised to see mass market batteries capable of 1000 mile range on a charge sometime in the next decade or so.
That, combined with vastly expanded public charging and improvements to the power grid, should see EVs continue to increase in adoption.
This seems like a wise decision to me, although only time will tell. Listening to one’s customers is probably smart, especially at the price point of Aston Martin’s offerings.
Voltpost wants to bring curbside EV charging to a lamppost near you | TechCrunch
The New York City-based startup has been working on a product that retrofits existing street lampposts to enable EV charging.
techcrunch.com
Is a good start.Voltpost wants to bring curbside EV charging to a lamppost near you | TechCrunch
The New York City-based startup has been working on a product that retrofits existing street lampposts to enable EV charging.
I just want to say, when they start doing the same thing to all parking meters, I had the idea first. 😀
L
if the question is “are companies cutting into Tesla’s market share?” then I think those percentages are indeed helpful.
Cumulative does not decide that, nor does a percentage increase in BMW's sales. BMW could be doubling its sales and still not diminishing Tesla's market share. (e.g, BMW doubles from 1 to 2, but Tesla picks up more market share by beating all of its competitors combined.) The appropriate measure is the most recent sales compared with those before
I think given one companies rising percentage of sales vs the dominant players decreasing % of sales, by definition the former is cutting into the latter’s market share.
How significantly would still be at question and could be answered by unit sales(which i can’t dig up at the moment). But BMW is not in the very extreme as in your example of 100% growth. Tesla is still dominant but BMW is a fairly legit player.
I agree cumulative sales is not helpful.
Yes. But to do so, the energy waves will have to go through your body. Which seems like it might be a really bad idea, except to Sloan Kettering who’d love the idea. 😀
You're right -- but, standing alone, the statement that BMW's percentage is increasing doesn't tell us that BMW is cutting into Tesla's market share. Suppose there are (to keep it simple) ) three companies: Tesla with a 60% share, X with a 35% share, and BMW with a 5% share. BMW can double its share to 10% -- but Tesla can still increase its share to 70% if X's goes down to 20%. In other words, we have to look not just at whether BMW's percentage is increasing but at Tesla's other competitors as well. Apologies if this seems too persnickety!
Not all of them are bad, but generally speaking, this represents the attitude of many Tesla owners.
Ultimately, the Rivian owner's adapter didn't work, so he decided to leave and head to a nearby EVGo charger. That's when the Tesla driver confronted him. Trying to "steer the conversation towards a constructive dialogue only seemed to aggravate him further," so the Rivian driver got in his car and left. "As I drove away, I saw him angrily talking on the phone, presumably to an unfortunate 9-1-1 operator."
www.pcmag.com
Ultimately, the Rivian owner's adapter didn't work, so he decided to leave and head to a nearby EVGo charger. That's when the Tesla driver confronted him. Trying to "steer the conversation towards a constructive dialogue only seemed to aggravate him further," so the Rivian driver got in his car and left. "As I drove away, I saw him angrily talking on the phone, presumably to an unfortunate 9-1-1 operator."
Tesla Owner Calls Police on Rivian Driver Using Supercharger
The encounter between a Rivian driver and uninformed Tesla owner highlights 'a need for better education and communication within the EV community,' the Rivian driver says.
I saw a fella struggling to charge his rented Prius at a Tesla charger. I got out and explained to him how charging worked, that his Prius wasn’t compatible and gave him a few names of charging apps that could help. Hopefully I can steer more Tesla owners to the helpful side.Not all of them are bad, but generally speaking, this represents the attitude of many Tesla owners.
Ultimately, the Rivian owner's adapter didn't work, so he decided to leave and head to a nearby EVGo charger. That's when the Tesla driver confronted him. Trying to "steer the conversation towards a constructive dialogue only seemed to aggravate him further," so the Rivian driver got in his car and left. "As I drove away, I saw him angrily talking on the phone, presumably to an unfortunate 9-1-1 operator."
Tesla Owner Calls Police on Rivian Driver Using Supercharger
The encounter between a Rivian driver and uninformed Tesla owner highlights 'a need for better education and communication within the EV community,' the Rivian driver says.
That being said, something needs to be done about the double parking/wrong side charging port or I’ll be at risk at going to the dark side.
Both Tesla and Ford ( I guess Rivian too) are at fault for rolling this out this way without modifications to the charging stations or providing an adapter with a 3 foot extension to accommodate the non Tesla vehicles. They have set themselves for trouble.
So he had a plug-in Prius? If it were me, I would just go to a gas station rather than try to deal with an unfamiliar technology. But that's just me.
