Can’t like Scarlet Nut’s post enough! Bac’s behavior on these types of threads is juvenile, petulant, and nasty, the only joy he gets is in bursting someone else’s bubble. Got nothing better to do? Infantile.
OT: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
yeah numbers, F those losers like Cali, Bac, and Bac’s crotch-sniffing buddy T2K….who do nothing but ruin these threads that so many people find helpful…even when the forecast changes.
I wish you three losers would just stay the hell off the thread.
bac and I have met many times, including sharing great times together at various bowl games and the NUTS bowl parties and hoops games, including celebrating on the floor together after the 3/2 last home game victory over MD in 2020 right before the pandemic. We're typically 95% aligned on RU sports matters and even mostly agree on weather, with differing perspectives. However, for some reason, he occasionally moves from disagreeing with my weather posts (which I have zero problem with) to trolling these threads as most people can see, but for some reason he thinks it's fun to "trigger" people, i.e., troll them. I don't get that and never will.
Summary: Little to no snow likely for most, except maybe a minor event for SENJ; could still be a minor event for everyone if the track of the coastal trends back NW and/or if the upper level low overperforms (still 2.5 days out, so some changes are still possible).
Details: So the 6Z models this morning continue with the trend SE with no models currently showing more than 1" for anyone in the Philly-NJ-NYC region, except for the 6Z NAM, which caved SE, but does still show 1-2" for extreme SENJ. However we're still 2.5 days away from the event start (late Weds night) and the players won't all be over land and well-sampled until this afternoon, so there could still be some decent shifts in the model guidance once that occurs, possibly putting our area back into at least minor (1-2") snowfall range, i.e., it's prudent to wait until after tonight's 0Z models to declare the patient completely dead. The NWS/WPC haven't completely thrown in the towel yet, still predicting (through Thursday at 7 am; they also note that a bit more snow could fall through early Thursday afternoon) up to 1" south of 78 and for NENJ/NYC/LI and predicting a minor 1-2" event for Salem to Toms River and SE of that line, but that was before seeing the 6Z models, so they may adjust towards a non-event still.
The NWS is still calling for a minor snowfall south of about 78, as per their 4 am discussion below, but they do note the trends towards a non-event. One other reason to hold off on cancelling this one completely is that Walt Drag, the retired NWS (Boston and Philly) meteorologist, is still calling for 2-6" from NW (Sussex/Poconos) to SE (Jersey coast), despite the models mostly showing nada. He feels the developing strong upper level low dropping down from the Great Lakes through PA/NJ will still produce at least some high ratio powdery snow (from 0.1-0.4" of precip), even if the primary southern coastal low goes too far to our SE to produce snow for anywhere but SENJ and he also thinks snowfall near the NJ coast could be enhanced by an inverted trough from the well offshore low back to the upper level low (which is why he thinks the coast could get the highest amounts).
He recognizes he's largely alone on this, but is sticking with his pattern recognition skills. It's worth noting that he never bought into the major/historic snowfall model runs shown by most of the models 4.5-6 days out (only calling for 2-6" for our area, even if he acknowledged there was potential for more), as he always thought there was a risk that the upper level low and the coastal low wouldn't phase on time for a major coastal storm for our area, which he was right about. It's impressive enough that he never bought in to the big snows, but it would be extraordinarily impressive should we still get minor/moderate snowfall from the ULL (perhaps enhanced by an inverted trough from the coastal low well offshore back to the ULL). A link to his latest post is below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...9-12z-fri-221/?do=findComment&comment=7660113
One other comment. In hindsight, it looks like the Euro-AI model has scored a major modeling coup, as it never showed a major snowstorm for our area, unlike every other global model all of which showed at least a few runs with major snowfall. The Euro-AI had most runs in days 4-7 showing a minor to moderate hit (and one run on Sat 12Z with significant snowfall, but not major), which I posted about in the pattern thread before this thread (link to post below). Out of the rest of the models, the GFS was close to the Euro-AI, only showing one major snowfall run, also on 12Z Sat. The Euro, UK and CMC all had multiple major snowfall runs for our region in that timeframe (including some historic runs). Unfortunately, I started this thread after the 12Z Sat runs, which were the snowiest for the entire storm evolution, lol. Bad timing.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ikely-for-most-of-january.287192/post-7137388
https://www.weather.gov/phi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday afternoon high pressure will start to depart as an
upper level low develops south of the Great Lakes. This will result
in an increase in cloud cover over the region ahead of a low
pressure system that starts to initiate well to our south.
Trends in the EC ensemble Low tracks and GEFS low tracks continue to
show the most likely scenario with the low is that is develops well
to the south and doesn`t strengthen until the low is well offshore.
The 00z EC substantially jumped south but the EC ensemble system was
fairly consistent with a slight southern shift relative the to 18z
suite. Given that consistency in a more southern track, the forecast
has been shifted further south with the snow totals highest
over southern Delaware. Based on the 17/00z suite of guidance,
snow is still forecast to move over portions of central and
southern Jersey however if the 00z EC pans out, we may see a
mostly dry event.
NWS snowfall forecast thru 7 am Thursday (note that they're predicting some more light snow thru 1 pm Thursday)
The 6Z NAM and the 03Z SREFs (where the SREF is often overdone) are the only models showing any snow over 1" anywhere north of coastal DE, although several models have ~1/2" amounts throughout the inland regions north of there due to the upper level low approaching from the NW (not from the coastal storm missing us way to the SE), while several others show nada. I can understand why the NWS cut snowfall back again.
We're close to miracle territory for getting even minor snowfall north of DE, although the NWS 1 in 10 chance (not quite Dumb and Dumber miracle levels, lol) high end map does show some surprisingly high snowfall amounts for the area, with several inches for SNJ and even 1-2" for 95, indicating that there's still some potential for more snow (and reflecting that we're still ~48 hours away from the "event" starting time)...but their 1 in 10 chance low end map shows 0.0" for everyone. And Walt Drag still thinks we could see an inch or so of powder along 95 on Thursday and a little more towards the coast, so I'd still say we're between zero and minor snow for most.
Not sure there's any better encapsulation of how this winter has gone for most of us in this area than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days. It's not that we've been shut out, it's that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, have gotten more and are projected to get even more. Ouch for snow lovers, lol.
That's crazy. It's as if Nature is like, "NYC/NJ...? Nah, NO snow for you! " (which I'm honestly fine with, personally).Not sure there's any better encapsulation of how this winter has gone for most of us in this area than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days. It's not that we've been shut out, it's that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, have gotten more and are projected to get even more. Ouch for snow lovers, lol.
When nuns are having snowball fights in Florida, you know that it's not our winter.
How nice it would be to able to block the usual suspects from viewing these posts. would stop all the BS.
I'd take every winter like this. Didn't shovel once this winter. Went through a lot of salt with all the sleet/ice storms.Not sure there's any better encapsulation of how this winter has gone for most of us in this area than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days. It's not that we've been shut out, it's that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, have gotten more and are projected to get even more. Ouch for snow lovers, lol.
We still need precipitation badly. Saturday rains were underwhelming in the Philadelphia area. Way off the 2" max some were talking about. PA definitely got a lot of rain to the NW as it's showing up in the water level of the Schuylkill River so that helps.
Mean girl. .you are triggering me please stop. Someone do something. I am a grown man who cannot handle mean girls in a weather thread about snow showersDefinitely worthy of a 6-page thread that was started 5 days early.
Its great when he posts in advance so anyone with travel plans or other plans can at least have a heads up and know there is a chance of disruptive weather. Finally put the trolls on ignore after thisw
Yup, especially for people with travel plans. Thanks to #'s were able to have alternate plans in case the weather was bad. Hope you got your rocks off when you were searching for that gif, troll.Definitely worthy of a 6-page thread that was started 5 days early.
The NYC weenie board is at 54 pages for this nothingburger.
If you want the weather forecast, weather.gov/phi is always there. Punch in your zip code and get the 7 day forecast for your travel plans centered around you. If you want weather banter, go to the americanwx weenie boards. This is a football board.
If you want the weather forecast, weather.gov/phi is always there. Punch in your zip code and get the 7 day forecast for your travel plans centered around you. If you want weather banter, go to the americanwx weenie boards. This is a football board.
lol, a football board - 75% of the threads are OT, so why not weather threads? And, by the way, did you look at the 12Z NAM yet?
You'll still likely get 1-2" with the potential for a few more... it's Cape May County's winter.
The 6Z NAM and the 03Z SREFs (where the SREF is often overdone) are the only models showing any snow over 1" anywhere north of coastal DE, although several models have ~1/2" amounts throughout the inland regions north of there due to the upper level low approaching from the NW (not from the coastal storm missing us way to the SE), while several others show nada. I can understand why the NWS cut snowfall back again.
We're close to miracle territory for getting even minor snowfall north of DE, although the NWS 1 in 10 chance (not quite Dumb and Dumber miracle levels, lol) high end map does show some surprisingly high snowfall amounts for the area, with several inches for SNJ and even 1-2" for 95, indicating that there's still some potential for more snow (and reflecting that we're still ~48 hours away from the "event" starting time)...but their 1 in 10 chance low end map shows 0.0" for everyone. And Walt Drag still thinks we could see an inch or so of powder along 95 on Thursday and a little more towards the coast, so I'd still say we're between zero and minor snow for most.
Bottom line is this remains somewhere between a complete miss and a minor event. Details below.
The NAM/SREFs finally backed off the idea of moderate snow for 95 and SE of 95, leaving every model with no snow from the coastal system getting further inland than southern DE across to about AC with most of Cape May County predicted to get 1-2" and it's possible there could be an inch or so as far north as LBI. However, almost all of the models are now showing snow showers to light snow for most of the area Thursday afternoon into the evening from the upper level low approaching from the NW, with some showing maybe 1/4-1/2" and others showing as much as 1.0-1.5" in spots, although the NWS is still only showing about 1/4", which is essentially a coating and a complete miss IMO.
This is consistent with what Walt Drag has been saying for days and he still expects 0.5-1.5" of powdery snow for most. And this kind of setup could also lead to some localized banding from an inverted trough stretching from the offshore coastal to the approaching ULL and if that occurs some fairly small areas could see a few inches of snow. Think back to the localized banding we saw in Feb of last year - no models are showing this yet, but these aren't usually well forecast until 12-18 hours before they occur.
Why are they showing most of the area <1 when most are reporting just flurries? And not from the main storm.Bottom line is this remains somewhere between a complete miss and a minor event. Details below.
The NAM/SREFs finally backed off the idea of moderate snow for 95 and SE of 95, leaving every model with no snow from the coastal system getting further inland than southern DE across to about AC with most of Cape May County predicted to get 1-2" and it's possible there could be an inch or so as far north as LBI. However, almost all of the models are now showing snow showers to light snow for most of the area Thursday afternoon into the evening from the upper level low approaching from the NW, with some showing maybe 1/4-1/2" and others showing as much as 1.0-1.5" in spots, although the NWS is still only showing about 1/4", which is essentially a coating and a complete miss IMO.
This is consistent with what Walt Drag has been saying for days and he still expects 0.5-1.5" of powdery snow for most. And this kind of setup could also lead to some localized banding from an inverted trough stretching from the offshore coastal to the approaching ULL and if that occurs some fairly small areas could see a few inches of snow. Think back to the localized banding we saw in Feb of last year - no models are showing this yet, but these aren't usually well forecast until 12-18 hours before they occur.
Because it's very difficult to predict 0.1" vs. 0.9" as that's only the difference between 0.01" and 0.09" of liquid, which is such a tiny difference that it's easier to just forecast <1" of snow (or <0.1" of liquid and really with high ratios that's probably <0.07" liquid).
It's at least better than what the NWS in Boston is doing. Everyone is chuckling at their 2-9" and 1-7" forecast ranges on Cape Cod. I get the uncertainty is very high there, but a more normal spread might be 4-8" vs. 2-9" or 2-5" vs. 1-7".
Not sure what that's supposed to mean. I just find it amusing that people come to the Rutgers message boards and go to the latest weather thread someone posted and have the audacity to ask for a personalized pinpoint forecast for their location at such-and-such time in the future. And they get pissed when the banter turns towards to ruffling feathers. Some of you need to get a grip.
And God bless Numbers for suffering all the fools.
Nope, I give up. I'm already a Rutgers fan, I've grown to accept Lucy pulling away the football there. I'm tired of Lucy pulling away the football weather-wise.
Yep, storm forecasts were lowered late last night and are still too high for everyone outside of eastern NC and SE VA, for the most part, where it's ripping snow and folks are likely going to get 4-8" or more, especially towards VA Beach.
Damn, at that rate I could fart robustly and clear my sidewalk.
