OT: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
I certainly knew that. Not many people admit it though cause it’s not the best look..especially for a grown man
Pretty amazing he's never really wavered from his 2-6" forecast since he started the AmericanWx thread at 2:35 am on Friday.
You realize that's just silly. 2000-2020 was the 2nd snowiest 20 year period in recorded history for NYC/NB with far more major (8"+) and historic (12"+) storms than usual, despite a warming climate in winter over that period, since all that's needed is enough cold in place to meet the precip. NYC (and NB roughly) gets a 12" snowstorm about every 4.2 years (37 in 155 years at CPK), but had 13 such storms in the last 30 years, which is one every 2.3 years, so we've been spoiled in the age of the internet. Welcome to climo, as it's barely been 4 years since the last 12"+ storm in 2021. There were only 3 in the 70s and one in the 80s or about 1 every 5 years, which is probably why it seemed they were so rare when I was growing up (and only 2 in the 60s after 1964 when I was 2 years old).
Very true, one of the reasons you never hear “Blizzard of….” anymore. We simply had a crazy amount of events. The Blizzard of 16 is one that should have stuck though.
Who knew Cape Henlopen would be The Snow Capital of the Mid-Atlantic
I definitely remember the 8o’s sucking for snow and the early 2000 through midteens being excellent for bg storms
But here on the coast we missed out on that 2021 snow(going off memory here) so pretty sure its been longer then 4 years.
I also have a bit of a theory that with global warming you get a stretch of big snows(extreme weather) just prior to a drastic decrease in snow all together(just too damn warm). Does this winter put a hole in that theory? Maybe, maybe not.
I’m just busting you but it sure doesn’t seem like we’ve had many lately. One in four years. I think part of the problem is with advanced modeling we hear about a lot of major storms coming that fizzle out. Curious, from 2000-2020 were there more closer to 2000 or were they evenly spread out?
The past 2 years and this one have been almost nothing. Very long streak to not have meaningful snow events. Getting an inconsequential inch or two here and there may make the annual totals look passable, but who cares about that other than snow eggheads. How did snow impact people? How many times were schools closed? How many times did you need to shovel? How many times were the kids able to sled? That's what people remember. The current/past 3 seasons have been garbage.
The amazing part is that Numbers meltdown isn't over a switch 2 days before the event...its one over a model switch that began FIVE days before the event
There is a lesson in there somewhere for him
There is a lesson in there somewhere for him
46 Presidents Days' ago,we had an all day storm of which the residue was gone by Saturday,not a 3 incher remaining for two weeks,the difference between 1979 and 2025.That night,I watched the Islanders on WOR defeat the Kings in LA.
Why don't you just bac off bac. Your endless feud is childish and ridiculous. Stick to game summaries.
How about Numbers bac'ing off from posting early/dumb stuff?
Posting weather forecasts isn't dissing another poster, its just posting what information is out there at that particular time. We all know these forecasts can change drastically as we get closer to the actual storm day. Going bac and forth with insults and arguments is childish. Agree to disagree with the forecast, that's fine. Keep personal insults off the thread.
sorry i came here and brought assessments of the situation...but go ahead..defend wild 7 day model outlooks showing 1-2 feet..all did was say...um why is this such a suprise that it didnt happen
can you specifically point me to the post in the thread that caused mental trauma for you, if not then I will ask you how much Numbers is paying you
This thread probably shouldn’t have been created as early as it was, but it’s wild how drastically this thing collapsed for our area. Someone joked on the weather board that the storm is heading for the Falklands now.
But the models have been in solid agreement now for 2 days..gosh who knew the closer you get to an event the better the models are
Its great when he posts in advance so anyone with travel plans or other plans can at least have a heads up and know there is a chance of disruptive weather. Finally put the trolls on ignore after this thread.
What meltdown? I just post the best info I can. I'm perfectly happy with this winter with 12 mostly minor events giving us 16", so far, that made things look nice: four were <1", six were 1-2" and two were over 3", plus we've had some snow on the ground for much of the time since 12/20. Of course, I'm disappointed with the model collapse for this storm, but it happens sometimes, although this was as bad as I've seen ~4 days before an event, particularly how quickly the models went from major/historic snowfall at 12Z Saturday to fairly minor (except for the 0Z Euro, which was still a major snowstorm) over 12 hours at 0Z Sunday.
And by the way, the thread was started slightly over 4 days before the event so I have no idea why you're bringing up models 7 days before the event in the thread, plus the models didn't mostly (apart from the Euro) go south until 0Z on Sunday, a little less than 4 days before the event, not FIVE days before the event. And the Euro didn't really go south until 12Z Sunday, a little less than 3.5 days before the event.
But your MO is the same in all of these threads. Downplay everything, saying it's all wishcasting and that it's going to bust and when it does bust you're right, but when it doesn't, like for every decent storm we've ever had, you look like an idiot, just like you did in the threads for Jan-16, Mar-18 and Feb-21. Whereas I simply post about the various possibilities, including some guesses as to likelihood (but not a forecast) several days out and then I switch to actual NWS/media forecasts about 3 days out and share those with explanatory commentary.
Saturday afternoon models...5 days before event
We don't run on Z time here lol
Anyhow the pushback you got revolved around how shocked you were the models lost the storm...no its not all that surprising 5 days out
For someone who is a big Walt Drag fan I'm a little surprised you made it all about the models
We don't run on Z time here lol
Anyhow the pushback you got revolved around how shocked you were the models lost the storm...no its not all that surprising 5 days out
For someone who is a big Walt Drag fan I'm a little surprised you made it all about the models
Definitely more in 2000-2010 (7), but still had four since then in 2011, 2014, 2016 and 2021; the list of 12"+ snowstorms for CPK, the most complete data set there is in our area, is below. The NB list requires hunting through a big spreadsheet.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf
I posted the thread at 2:40 pm Saturday with a precip start time roughly around 9 pm Wednesday night as I stated in the first post in the thread: that's 4.25 days before the event. The thread title says Thursday, because late Weds might as well be Thursday for impact purposes and it's too hard to fit too many details into a thread title. Go look at the weather boards - the vast majority of people were greatly surprised by the speed of the implosion of the models, including most of the mets - it's not surprising that things will change, but the speed and the extent of that change were surprising to almost everyone.
And I have no idea what your Walt Drag comment means. If I wanted to make it all about the models, I would have posted a bunch to hype things up - I never posted one model output in this thread, as I know they can be misleading, plus a quick bulleted summary of model outputs is easier to digest and doesn't clutter up the whole thread.
Thanks for the link. So four in 15 years. Maybe that’s why it doesn’t feel like that much to me. My expectations are too high.
That site sucks for finding one's local weather; the NWS site is far better and I link to it all the time. But some like coming here to get even more detail and more frequent updates than they'll get from those websites, especially since they're already on the site anyway and it takes them 10 seconds to get a digest.
Probably - due to the abnormally high frequency from 2000 through 2010. 4 in 14 years (2025 ain't over yet, lol) is still well above the 155 year average of one every 4.2 years.
My sister and her SO live near there in the summer but are in Vero for the winter as they hate snow (her SO grew up in Milton) - they're very happy to have avoided all the snow there this winter, lol.
Stop acting as if this threat was not being talked about in the pattern thread
Of course they will be surprised...its a board 100% rooting for as much snow as possible
Yet Walt Drag was never running towards the huge storm potential
Just wondering if you and bac have ever met in person at a game or if all your interaction has been confined to here. You both are basically originals here as am I (joining the board the day of the first game of Greg 1.0). I did meet bac once after a basketball game against USF maybe 20 years ago or so.
Numbers, I've followed you from Fair Lawn to Pembroke Pines, Florida to now Monroe Township over the past 10 ish years and completely enjoy your weather take. Keep doing what you're doing. More of us enjoy and appreciate your reporting than listening to snipes from a "famous" few!
Fell off the face of the earth. Moved to Pa. last I heard. That was awhile ago.
Onto next winter.
Next winter?
Don’t jump ahead too far.
Are you forgetting the annual “Summer is Hot” thread with hour by hour reports of the temperature increasing and decreasing.
Riveting stuff.
