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OT: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)

Rutgers game is on at 6PM. I have 2 choices. I can watch the game or not watch the game. I know that from 6:00-6:20PM what I see has some predictive value on who will win the game, but at 6:20PM I probably still won't know who is going to win the game. I choose to watch the game at 6:00PM anyhow.


EDIT: Full disclosure I will probably DVR the game and watch golf and then when that ends start watching RU.
 
Rutgers game is on at 6PM. I have 2 choices. I can watch the game or not watch the game. I know that from 6:00-6:20PM what I see has some predictive value on who will win the game, but at 6:20PM I probably still won't know who is going to win the game. I choose to watch the game at 6:00PM anyhow.


EDIT: Full disclosure I will probably DVR the game and watch golf and then when that ends start watching RU.
Great analogy...
 
Over the last few winters, it’s become pretty clear to me that:

  • Talking about possible storms more than 2-3 days out is pretty pointless for any meaningful planning purposes.
  • With few exceptions, the models are all pretty inaccurate vs actual end results more than 1-2 days out.
  • NWS Mt Holly forecasting for central NJ sucks and is constantly changing before and even after the storm starts - so, beyond alerting us that “it might snow”, is not very accurate.
True
True
and
True
 
Over the last few winters, it’s become pretty clear to me that:

  • Talking about possible storms more than 2-3 days out is pretty pointless for any meaningful planning purposes.
  • With few exceptions, the models are all pretty inaccurate vs actual end results more than 1-2 days out.
  • NWS Mt Holly forecasting for central NJ sucks and is constantly changing before and even after the storm starts - so, beyond alerting us that “it might snow”, is not very accurate.
Nailed it
 
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Can you assholes that bitch and moan and complain and cry wah wah wah over someone’s posts about the weather just stay the F*ck off the chain and not read it if you are so bothered by RU84’s weather posts?

Good luck. Many of us have made this same , exceedingly reasonable, suggestion for years now.

They like to fight over this crap.

Its ridiculous annoying and childish

But they will never stop
 
I like the balance that is brought about by the opposing opinions. On another note, is it just me or has this been one of the dreariest winters in recent memory?
 
Are you in mourning?
5V6RYAJ.gif
j/k
Not at all, it's just weather. I love snow and for me this has already been a good winter with 12 measurable, albeit mostly small snowfalls adding up to 16" of snow, so plenty of fun tracking and gorgeous little snowfalls and getting to walk and play in the snow. Sure, I'd love to get a big storm, but if it doesn't happen, I'll survive fine - kind of like being an RU fan.
 
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I like the balance that is brought about by the opposing opinions. On another note, is it just me or has this been one of the dreariest winters in recent memory?
Agree but until today we really haven't had a lot of measurable precipitation. Add in a brutal freeze week and seemingly endless under average temps.
 
Rutgers game is on at 6PM. I have 2 choices. I can watch the game or not watch the game. I know that from 6:00-6:20PM what I see has some predictive value on who will win the game, but at 6:20PM I probably still won't know who is going to win the game. I choose to watch the game at 6:00PM anyhow.


EDIT: Full disclosure I will probably DVR the game and watch golf and then when that ends start watching RU.
The schedule says the game is at 7pm. Did that change?
 
I like the balance that is brought about by the opposing opinions. On another note, is it just me or has this been one of the dreariest winters in recent memory?
Awful winter, very cold and yet barely any meaningful snow events for the kids.
 
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That's the whole point...modeling is bad but perhaps forecasting even worse and Mt holly perpetually OVERDOING amounts for central jersey

A reminder that forecasted amounts always inflated to cover their bases
It’s going to get worse due to funding cuts
 
Full disclosure, I am a snow lover as well. But living east of the parkway and closer to the coast, we often get more rain than snow. These threads are helpful to decide whether or not we are going to close my medical office. So maybe the majority views some of these events as "busts", but some of us have an interest.
If you base your decision on whether to open or close your medical office by reading threads on snow 4 or 5 days out you would have most of the winter closed due to Doom forecasts. I hope who does the scheduling doesn't call patients to tell them you will be closing next week
 
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Back to the weather. So far, the 12Z models look worse for snow lovers; won't post any thoughts/analysis until we see the whole suite. In the order they come out (will update this post)...
  • The 12Z ICON shows a couple of inches for Cape May and the DelMarVa and that's it - big move SE relative to 6Z
  • The 12Z GFS ticked a little bit SE with the snow, now showing 1-2" for 95 and 4-6" at the coast
  • The 12Z CMC ticked a bit SE and now shows a complete miss for everyone
  • The 12Z UK ticked a bit SE and shows a minor event for far SENJ and that's it
  • And the 12Z Euro ticked SE a bit with 4-7" along 95, less NW and up to 12" at the coast. It's the only current model that still has substantial snow for the 95 corridor.
  • The CMC ensemble mean shows only a couple of inches for SENJ, while the GFS ensembles show a few inches for most and a bit more for coastal areas.
  • Finally, the Euro-AIFS moved back SE significantly only bringing minor snow to 95 and a few inches towards the coast.

So the 12Z model suite outcomes are not good if you like snow, so I changed the thread title. Clearly a complete miss is now on the table, so was wrong on that, as I really didn't think the models would move that far away from the consistently snowy models from just 24 hours ago (and prior to that). A minor to moderate event for just about everyone and a significant event for the coast are very possible, while a major snowstorm for all is still possible (IMO until we see what Monday night's models bring once we have better data inputs), but far less likely than it was 24 hours ago. It happens, but I'd way rather have it fall apart 4 days out than 12 hours out like happened for Jan-2015.

FYI, most of the pros I read are saying that so much of this is the result of the northern jet stream-associated upper level low approaching from the Dakotas down towards Ohio on Tues/Weds not being nearly as robust as earlier, leading to less digging southward and less phasing with the lobe of the TPV near the Great Lakes and with the surface low approaching from the GOM states, which leads to the eventual storm being both weaker and further out to sea. Several have said that small changes in that evolution in the next day or so (it should be ashore in Canada for tomorrow night's runs) could lead to substantial changes in the storm's evolution, but that they're not necessarily counting on seeing such changes (and are just simply noting they're possible). AmericanWx thread linked below if you like to see what depression looks like.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...time-between-18z-wed-219-12z-fri-221/page/37/
 
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Needs to be colder. Freeze the Ponds!!!!
I know you're kidding, but the ironic thing is that this will be the first D/J/F all colder than normal in a long time, plus it's going to be plenty cold for this storm (teens/20s), but the snows just haven't quite come for the NE urban corridor (outside of DC) or our area this year - got pretty unlucky that a few storms that looked good 4-5 days out didn't materialize at all or just barely. It's been a Mid-Atlantic winter for snow.
 
If you base your decision on whether to open or close your medical office by reading threads on snow 4 or 5 days out you would have most of the winter closed due to Doom forecasts. I hope who does the scheduling doesn't call patients to tell them you will be closing next week
No, but we keep an eye on it. We don't need post op people who use crutches and walkers and have balance deficits have to make the decision whether or not to come in, so we will reschedule them ahead of time if needed.
 
I know you're kidding, but the ironic thing is that this will be the first D/J/F all colder than normal in a long time, plus it's going to be plenty cold for this storm (teens/20s), but the snows just haven't quite come for the NE urban corridor (outside of DC) or our area this year - got pretty unlucky that a few storms that looked good 4-5 days out didn't materialize at all or just barely. It's been a Mid-Atlantic winter for snow.
Nope, not kidding.
 
Over the last few winters, it’s become pretty clear to me that:

  • Talking about possible storms more than 2-3 days out is pretty pointless for any meaningful planning purposes.
  • With few exceptions, the models are all pretty inaccurate vs actual end results more than 1-2 days out.
  • NWS Mt Holly forecasting for central NJ sucks and is constantly changing before and even after the storm starts - so, beyond alerting us that “it might snow”, is not very accurate.
I’ve talked about the third bullet with some of my RU meteorology professors over the years and there is consensus that Mt Holly’s forecast quality has markedly declined since around 2013. They have a less than stellar reputation among other NWS offices.
 
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