There is nothing unprecedented about huge model shifts 4-5 days out nor why any met of stock would be dumbfounded besides ones so snowblinded
OT: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)
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Not triggered. The same ground was being covered in the pattern thread so there really wasn’t a need to start a separate thread on this before Monday, if the models continued to justify it. Not even sure what the point of using the term “triggered” is supposed to mean when someone is just making a comment or stating an opinion different than yours.
You make way too many unwarranted assumptions. I didn't post about the decrease in model snowfall at 18Z yesterday because I was busy with yesterday's storm in the afternoon, while also spending some quality time with my wife in the evening, i.e., not "obsessing" about or "in denial" about weather models, as I didn't start looking at them until 0Z last night and saw no need to discuss the 18Z runs, as they were already old at that point. Also, if I were obsessed with the maps and wanted to hype the storm, I could easily be posting all the snowy ones, but I don't. And breaking news - of course I'm rooting for a big snowstorm - please tell me you didn't just figure that out, lol.
With regard to outcomes, I don't think I've showed any bias or at least I've tried not to - just sharing what we're seeing in the models. They were big snowstorms from day 7 to day 5, then took a nosedive, mostly, yesterday and have started to move back snowier this morning. I have no clue what we'll see from here on in and neither do you and neither do mets/experts as this setup is simply too volatile to "know" what's going to happen. I do think we'll have a much better handle on this by tomorrow, though, with all the players over land and well-sampled, plus just being a day closer in time.
Thanks, figured you'd enjoy that post from that met - he's really good.
So, posting what the NWS predicted is wrong? And in a thread that you insisted be started, when I was going to not even start one as I thought we wouldn't get much? That's rich.
That's the whole point...modeling is bad but perhaps forecasting even worse and Mt holly perpetually OVERDOING amounts for central jersey
A reminder that forecasted amounts always inflated to cover their bases
You are saying its not worthy to post threads about 2 inch forecasted events in NJ??? Now that's something giving our parade of 1 inch storm threads this year
Why do you all get so pissed by weather posts? Just read them if you like and make your own minds up. I don't get the jealousy or rancor with weather posts. Unless there is some back story rivalry, just read or ignore. This board seems to fight over every thread posted, be it sports, politics or weather!
I don't get it either. It accomplishes nothing and is annoying to sift through. If you don't like it, don't read it. But otherwise the inncessent bitching comes off like rainman in repeating the same critiques over and over and over.
So much wrong in this post and nice job derailing another weather thread. It's what you do. You're simply incapable of having a reasoned discussion and the most laughable part is bringing up that one guy weenie-tagged one post (that happens to everyone at times), while ignoring the fact that you have been banned and 5-posted numerous times on the weather boards over the years for your trolling.
So you're saying we have a chance to win the B!G? You may be right - it's possible we'll get nada, but I think we'll at least get a minor to moderate snowfall and more is quite possible.
On the other hand, a met on AmericanWx just posted the quote below that he "leans toward" this storm being a complete miss, while most other mets aren't saying that, but he's pretty good, so...
"I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday"
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Am i wrong but do you post incessant critiques against Pikiell
And then you post that
It was already being covered in the pattern thread and could've continued like that, but you made good points for a separate thread and so I posted one - and now you're giving me grief about posting the thread you asked me to post. Can't make this shit up.
Also, the AmericanWx thread on this was started by the esteemed NWS met Walt Drag 12 hours before I started this one. Would be amusing to see how quickly you'd be laughed at and booted off the site by criticizing him for starting threads too early and throwing out too many possibilities.
You do show up bias as you post it in the other weather thread that you will not start to worry unless you see a significant shift. That to me is a bias
OT: Stormy and Potentially Snowy from about 2/8-2/22? (pg 9); OG Thread: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January
For tomorrow night? Near here? Looked like they had 1-3" for our area with 5-8" north of 84. Sorry sweet pea has trouble reading that would be for Wednesday night
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
Weenies on suicide watch on AmericanWX board. It's over!
It's sublimation of political differences evident on other boards if not also here.
They're in the process of engraving the tombstone as we speakWeenies on suicide watch on AmericanWX board. It's over!
Reading #s and Bac going back and forth is AS, if not MORE entertaining than the first 9 seconds of USA-Canada.
Citing the RGEM way out of its range is silly, just as silly as quoting the NAM way out of its range, as the NAM shows a likely major hit. Both should be ignored.
If you truly wanted a snow storm, you have to follow the number one rule of snow lovers which is buying a snow blower ensures you won't get a snow storm!
I can "worry" about getting less snow, since I like snow, but yet still post unbiased observations and analysis. People can walk and chew gum at the same time. And by the way, this is the only place (I post very similar info about weather on 4 other boards and FB) that a few people say I'm biased and troll my posts, so I'm pretty sure it's the people here and not me.
He appears to be angry all the time. I think he needs to occasionally get off the board and do something else. Well, I guess he might be angry it’s not snowing since he earn some money plowing the streets.
Back to the weather. So far, the 12Z models look worse for snow lovers; won't post any thoughts/analysis until we see the whole suite. In the order they come out (will update this post)...
- The 12Z ICON shows a couple of inches for Cape May and the DelMarVa and that's it - big move SE relative to 6Z
- The 12Z GFS ticked a little bit SE with the snow, now showing 1-2" for 95 and 4-6" at the coast
- The 12Z CMC ticked a bit SE and now shows a complete miss for everyone
- The 12Z UK ticked a bit SE and shows a minor event for far SENJ and that's it
- And the 12Z Euro ticked SE a bit with 4-7" along 95, less NW and up to 12" at the coast. It's the only current model that still has substantial snow for the 95 corridor.
- The CMC ensemble mean shows only a couple of inches for SENJ, while the GFS ensembles show a few inches for most and a bit more for coastal areas.
- Finally, the Euro-AIFS moved back SE significantly only bringing minor snow to 95 and a few inches towards the coast.
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Not only are these forecast models bad, but they are also getting worse. Bust after bust after bust. Pretty comical.
Global warming is awesome! :)Weenies on suicide watch on AmericanWX board. It's over!
Full disclosure, I am a snow lover as well. But living east of the parkway and closer to the coast, we often get more rain than snow. These threads are helpful to decide whether or not we are going to close my medical office. So maybe the majority views some of these events as "busts", but some of us have an interest.
Bunch of nerds with way too much time on their hands if we want to be truthful lol.
Over the last few winters, it’s become pretty clear to me that:
- Talking about possible storms more than 2-3 days out is pretty pointless for any meaningful planning purposes.
- With few exceptions, the models are all pretty inaccurate vs actual end results more than 1-2 days out.
- NWS Mt Holly forecasting for central NJ sucks and is constantly changing before and even after the storm starts - so, beyond alerting us that “it might snow”, is not very accurate.
