I believe that and at one point they admitted it but over time they went right back into the hype machine. I was shocked about Dan Zarrow diving in the deep end of the big snow nonsense but he sold out, sad!
OT: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
I guess we don’t know what “direction” Dan is getting at NJ 101.5 these days. I agree - used to think he was pretty level headed when it came to these forecasts. The recent departure is strange.
agree wholeheartedly......they just seem to insist on overdoing things and not being specific about counties...so many 2-4/3-6 inch calls which give 1-2 inches.
NJ has very diverse weather areas, its deserves diverse forecasts not just a default to the snowiest amounts to cover their bases which I think ultimately seems their goal, to not mess up by missing out on an overperformer
but in fairness, the modelling has been terrible even in the mid range and the overreliance in the hrrr in the shorterm is absurd
seems as the more technology advances, the art of actually forecasting has decreased rapidly
I think that’s lame for many reasons, but it’s especially lame and irresponsible for something as important as weather forecasts. BTW - wind is picking up now. Something to keep an eye on through tomorrow.
Zarrow posted this on his FB last month -
I can't disclose exact numbers, but my company sets some incredibly aggressive goals for my digital performance. Like, your eyes would pop out of your head if you knew how many eyeballs I need to view my content every single month - whether there's hazardous weather in New Jersey or not. I'm so proud to reach those goals with honesty and integrity, without resorting to hype and hysteria.
They could stop.
They could be forced to stop. It's a simple moderation task. We know precisely who disrupts the weather threads. Their actions are eminently more predictable than the weather. Simply ban them from the threads.
But the moderators won't do that, because "some of them" are trolls, themselves.
Looking at you, @Tango Two.
18z Euro caves....way south
the last surviving weenies are left clingin to the laughed at ICON model
the last surviving weenies are left clingin to the laughed at ICON model
Lights have flickered a couple times. Keeping my fingers crossed.
But what are the doing wrong? Aren't they essentially just retelling what the models are telling them?
Gary Szatkowski's retirement was certainly impactful. No idea what other elements could be in play.
The last hope for a significant storm may have just died as the 18Z Euro moved well SE and now only shows several inches for the coast and maybe 1" for 95. But like Star Wars, there is another hope. It's called the 84 hr NAM which showed a major snowstorm that wasn't done yet. Having the long range NAM at the end of its run is not what you want to pin your last hope on (the Euro, I get), lol, although it does illustrate what would need to happen to revive this system for snow. The only other model showing a few inches for 95 is the ICON, not the best model.
So, the idea of a major snowstorm is close to dead (not quite - still want to see if any major changes occur after tomorrow's models after the energy is all ashore, but that's a pretty low probability that it'll change things substantially) and now the question becomes will this be a shutout or could we at least get a 1/6 style storm with a few inches for 95 and a fair amount more towards the coast (DelMarVa and far SENJ could still do quite well, like on 1/6). That's certainly still doable, as is even a 4-8" event for 95, but my gut tells me that's the ceiling now. FWIW, Joe Bastardi isn't giving up on a major 95 corridor snowstorm until after Monday night's models, but then again, he's become a clickbait specialist in his elder years.
So, the idea of a major snowstorm is close to dead (not quite - still want to see if any major changes occur after tomorrow's models after the energy is all ashore, but that's a pretty low probability that it'll change things substantially) and now the question becomes will this be a shutout or could we at least get a 1/6 style storm with a few inches for 95 and a fair amount more towards the coast (DelMarVa and far SENJ could still do quite well, like on 1/6). That's certainly still doable, as is even a 4-8" event for 95, but my gut tells me that's the ceiling now. FWIW, Joe Bastardi isn't giving up on a major 95 corridor snowstorm until after Monday night's models, but then again, he's become a clickbait specialist in his elder years.
Yeah, these winds mean business. Staying downstairs on the north side of our house, as we have a number of huge trees on the west side of the house...
Rutgers weather station measured a 63mph gust in Sea Girt around 615. Pole(s) down on Rt 71 and perhaps Manasquan center.
Winds are gusting and my power is out down here near Lambertville/Delaware River.
JCP&L/First Energy has to be the absolute worst public utility in the history of mankind.
JCP&L/First Energy has to be the absolute worst public utility in the history of mankind.
It never gets any better with them. Always go out first and always with the most outages. Then they always have this blowhard spokesperson go on camera telling you about all the improvements they have made and how great they are. Yeah, right.
Has been for a long time.
After Sandy I was talking to a crew from Alabama who was up here helping to restore power. One guy told me their biggest problem was getting replacement parts, some of which were so old they weren't made anymore.
I heard the same thing from the Virginia crews who worked to restore power around us. They were shocked at how outdated the infrastructure is.
I guess you have to consider that many parts of NJ were, in reality, among the first areas to ever be wired.
Alabama Power saved our asses after Sandy, they'll always be heroes in my book.
The gulf coast states have been hit with numerous destructive hurricanes, tornadoes etc over the decades which I’m sure has contributed to modernizing their power systems. Our area of the country has contributed a lot of financial aid over that time to helping them rebuild after natural disasters, that should not be forgotten.
FYI - this may be old news, but Dan Zarrow is calling you out by name/username on Facebook.
Almost storm cancel time, since, at this rate, this storm is going to hit Bermuda lol. The 0Z models, overall, moved even further SE across the board with the Euro, CMC/RGEM and UK now all complete misses for our region, with significant snow confined to coastal VA/NC. Of the "snowy" models, the GFS shows several inches for SENJ and <1" for 95, the ICON shows 1-2" for Cape May/AC, and the NAM, somehow, is still showing what looks like it will be a moderate to significant snowstorm for the region (it's at the end of its run with heavy snow still falling) - most are discounting this, as the NAM at the end of its run is usually not reliable, plus it's a major outlier.
Sure, there's still a chance for a minor to maybe even moderate event for our area, should we see a modest shift back NW (75-100 mile shifts are not unheard of inside of 3 days before an event, especially when the players aren't all on the field until tomorrow meaning the 0Z runs 24 hours from now will be the first model suite with full sampling) in the models, but one shouldn't expect to see that, meaning a complete miss to a minor even seem the most likely range of outcomes.
I've never seen a complete implosion from historic snowstorm to complete miss over just 36 hours in the modeling world in the last 15-20 years of tracking storms and neither has any other pro or hobbyist I know of on the boards or in social media, as the axis of heaviest snowfall has shifted SE 150-250 miles, depending on the model, over that time. Even Jan-2015 went from a forecast of 18-24" for most in NJ (and there was not model consensus on the high snowfall forecasts 12-24 hours before that event) to several inches for most of NJ, which is at least not a complete miss (and yes I know this one isn't 100% over yet, but it's close). March 2001 might be worse at least for me, as we had a forecast of 1-2 feet and got maybe 1" in CNJ, but that was almost 25 years ago when models were definitely inferior to today (despite the current failure). I posted the 12Z Saturday and 0Z tonight model comparisons on AmericanWx over 2 posts (size restrictions) at the link below if interested in seeing them.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...9-12z-fri-221/?do=findComment&comment=7660058
Well, thanks for the updates. I’ll leave the snowblower at the door of the shed for another year haha.
It’s been brutal the last 24 hours, whole house is shaking
Lost power yesterday from about 5:45pm - 9:45pm. Big pine around the block split in half & took out the wires. My development has underground service, but not the older development a block over. Thankfully PSE&G got power routed back around the fault, because the trucks are still there & street with tree barricaded off to traffic.
Also big trees came down across 130 in Cranbury, knocking out the power lines. PSE&G way on top of that one. Traffic down to one lane southbound.
Also big trees came down across 130 in Cranbury, knocking out the power lines. PSE&G way on top of that one. Traffic down to one lane southbound.
So you’re basically admitting you’re a troll??? You love “triggering” posters. Wow. A grown man going on a message board getting off on triggering posters. Yikes.
To each his own I guess…
Wind gusts top 70 mph in N.J. See latest town-by-town reports.
The strong winds are expected to continue overnight into Monday in New Jersey as temperatures plunge below freezing.
Had dinner at Federico's in Belmar next to St. Rose HS last night around 7:00pm. The wind was incredible to say the least. On my phone it said wind gust were hitting 65+, crazy. PS. They have the best chicken Francese
Summary: Little to no snow likely for most, except maybe a minor event for SENJ; could still be a minor event for everyone if the track of the coastal trends back NW and/or if the upper level low overperforms (still 2.5 days out, so some changes are still possible).
Details: So the 6Z models this morning continue with the trend SE with no models currently showing more than 1" for anyone in the Philly-NJ-NYC region, except for the 6Z NAM, which caved SE, but does still show 1-2" for extreme SENJ. However we're still 2.5 days away from the event start (late Weds night) and the players won't all be over land and well-sampled until this afternoon, so there could still be some decent shifts in the model guidance once that occurs, possibly putting our area back into at least minor (1-2") snowfall range, i.e., it's prudent to wait until after tonight's 0Z models to declare the patient completely dead. The NWS/WPC haven't completely thrown in the towel yet, still predicting (through Thursday at 7 am; they also note that a bit more snow could fall through early Thursday afternoon) up to 1" south of 78 and for NENJ/NYC/LI and predicting a minor 1-2" event for Salem to Toms River and SE of that line, but that was before seeing the 6Z models, so they may adjust towards a non-event still.
The NWS is still calling for a minor snowfall south of about 78, as per their 4 am discussion below, but they do note the trends towards a non-event. One other reason to hold off on cancelling this one completely is that Walt Drag, the retired NWS (Boston and Philly) meteorologist, is still calling for 2-6" from NW (Sussex/Poconos) to SE (Jersey coast), despite the models mostly showing nada. He feels the developing strong upper level low dropping down from the Great Lakes through PA/NJ will still produce at least some high ratio powdery snow (from 0.1-0.4" of precip), even if the primary southern coastal low goes too far to our SE to produce snow for anywhere but SENJ and he also thinks snowfall near the NJ coast could be enhanced by an inverted trough from the well offshore low back to the upper level low (which is why he thinks the coast could get the highest amounts).
He recognizes he's largely alone on this, but is sticking with his pattern recognition skills. It's worth noting that he never bought into the major/historic snowfall model runs shown by most of the models 4.5-6 days out (only calling for 2-6" for our area, even if he acknowledged there was potential for more), as he always thought there was a risk that the upper level low and the coastal low wouldn't phase on time for a major coastal storm for our area, which he was right about. It's impressive enough that he never bought in to the big snows, but it would be extraordinarily impressive should we still get minor/moderate snowfall from the ULL (perhaps enhanced by an inverted trough from the coastal low well offshore back to the ULL). A link to his latest post is below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...9-12z-fri-221/?do=findComment&comment=7660113
One other comment. In hindsight, it looks like the Euro-AI model has scored a major modeling coup, as it never showed a major snowstorm for our area, unlike every other global model all of which showed at least a few runs with major snowfall. The Euro-AI had most runs in days 4-7 showing a minor to moderate hit (and one run on Sat 12Z with significant snowfall, but not major), which I posted about in the pattern thread before this thread (link to post below). Out of the rest of the models, the GFS was close to the Euro-AI, only showing one major snowfall run, also on 12Z Sat. The Euro, UK and CMC all had multiple major snowfall runs for our region in that timeframe (including some historic runs). Unfortunately, I started this thread after the 12Z Sat runs, which were the snowiest for the entire storm evolution, lol. Bad timing.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ikely-for-most-of-january.287192/post-7137388
https://www.weather.gov/phi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday afternoon high pressure will start to depart as an
upper level low develops south of the Great Lakes. This will result
in an increase in cloud cover over the region ahead of a low
pressure system that starts to initiate well to our south.
Trends in the EC ensemble Low tracks and GEFS low tracks continue to
show the most likely scenario with the low is that is develops well
to the south and doesn`t strengthen until the low is well offshore.
The 00z EC substantially jumped south but the EC ensemble system was
fairly consistent with a slight southern shift relative the to 18z
suite. Given that consistency in a more southern track, the forecast
has been shifted further south with the snow totals highest
over southern Delaware. Based on the 17/00z suite of guidance,
snow is still forecast to move over portions of central and
southern Jersey however if the 00z EC pans out, we may see a
mostly dry event.
NWS snowfall forecast thru 7 am Thursday (note that they're predicting some more light snow thru 1 pm Thursday)
Last edited:
