OT: Stormy and Potentially Snowy from about 2/8-2/22? (pg 9); OG Thread: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January

[RocktheRac]

For tomorrow night? Near here? Looked like they had 1-3" for our area with 5-8" north of 84.

Sorry sweet pea has trouble reading that would be for Wednesday night

 

[RU848789]

I don't think the folks on the two weather boards I post on liked when I posted this morning that the Euro AIFS model (their AI model) was largely a miss out to sea 3 of the last 4 runs, with snow mostly confined to SENJ/DelMarVa. And that's exactly what just happened for the 12Z GFS run, which was a significant hit for far SENJ/DelMarVa, but missed for anyone along/NW of 95. Doesn't mean, at all, that the threat is dead, but it certainly reminds people that there can be huge changes 6 days out.

And right on cue, the 12Z CMC is still a major snowstorm for all wit 10-16" for all, using the Kuchera algrorithm for snow/liquid ratio, since every model has temps in the teens to low 20s for this event (which is very unusual for these parts), meaning one would expect a very light/fluffy snow. And the UK is also still a major snowstorm with 12-24" for all. Going to be a long 5-6 more days, lol.

Edit: and the Euro is another big hit with 12-24" area-wide. So just the GFS as a near miss and the Euro-AIFS as almost a complete miss, while the Euro/CMC/UK Op runs and the ensembles for all 3 and the GFS actually all show a significant to major storm being likely. Long way to go still. If we have most/all of the models in agreement after tonight (5 days out), will probably start a thread.

Seeing almost the same thing at 0Z tonight that we saw at 12Z today with the GFS being a coastal scraper that gives SENJ/DelMarVA a good storm, but nada along/NW of 95 and the CMC, UK and Euro, especially, showing major to historic snowstorms. The CMC is a coastal hugger with 8-24" along/NW of 95 and a fair amount less SE of 95 due to mixing, while the UK is a major snowstorm with 8-14" for all, and last, but not least, the Euro continues its series of model runs showing historic snowstorms with 12-26" snow for everyone. This is a classic Miller A storm (crosses east through the Gulf states then comes up the east coast).

And the models even appearing to be exhibiting their biases, with the GFS being very progressive (not turning up the coast much) and the CMC being very amplified (almost going inland); not saying their solutions couldn't be right, but a mix of the two would seem more likely. And the ensembles continue to look good indicating that the GFS Op run is further SE than the ensemble mean (the SE track bias for the GFS) with the others all indicating a major snowstorm. One other note: a met on one of the boards showed that the Euro-AIFS has been showing a progressive/SE bias the last few storms, which could explain why it's showing solutions that are further offshore than any other model, including the GFS - this is really the first year seeing its performance in the real world.

We're not locked in to a major snowstorm for everyone yet, as we're still 5 days out and much can still change, although a complete miss and a total rainstorm from a cutter seem extremely unlikely, but a scraper that only hits the coast or an inland runner that brings snow to rain are still possible, although having said that, this is certainly the best signal we've seen for a big snowstorm at this range in a few years. Thread time tomorrow - gotta get some sleep now, lol. Good discussion below by Tomer Burg and the AmericanWx thread has all the maps you'd want to see.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...etime-between-18z-wed-219-12z-fri-221/page/9/

 

[RU848789]

The 6Z Euro-AIFS and the 6Z GFS made significant moves NW with their low tracks and both now have 6"+ along/near the coast and a few inches along 95, so they've moved substantially towards the Euro/CMC/UK models (and their ensembles) which all have major snowstorms for the entire area. Also, if we get the major+ snowstorm depicted by most of the models (still not a given 4.5 days out, but getting more likely), it could possibly be a blizzard with high winds (hard to predict winds accurately this far out) and would likely bring at least minor coastal flooding issues. As Walt Drag, the esteemed retired NWS met recently said, if you have travel plans for late Weds night through Thursday, consider changing them if you can do so without any hardship. Busy all morning, but assuming the 12Z models in a few hours don't have some huge, unexpected change away from a snowstorm, I'll start a thread then.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

The 6Z Euro-AIFS and the 6Z GFS made significant moves NW with their low tracks and both now have 6"+ along/near the coast and a few inches along 95, so they've moved substantially towards the Euro/CMC/UK models (and their ensembles) which all have major snowstorms for the entire area. Also, if we get the major+ snowstorm depicted by most of the models (still not a given 4.5 days out, but getting more likely), it could possibly be a blizzard with high winds (hard to predict winds accurately this far out) and would likely bring at least minor coastal flooding issues. As Walt Drag, the esteemed retired NWS met recently said, if you have travel plans for late Weds night through Thursday, consider changing them if you can do so without any hardship. Busy all morning, but assuming the 12Z models in a few hours don't have some huge, unexpected change away from a snowstorm, I'll start a thread then.

Man this timing sucks
Bball playoffs Wednesday night + flight out to Florida on thursday afternoon

Can’t be leaving if we’re getting a substabtial snowfall… damn winter

 

[Postman_1]

Lots of negative talk here regarding Wed - Thursdays chances. I don't think they are very confident. I know I'm not

Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 18z Wed 2/19-12z Fri 2/21?

www.americanwx.com

 

[RU848789]

Lots of negative talk here regarding Wed - Thursdays chances. I don't think they are very confident. I know I'm not

Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 18z Wed 2/19-12z Fri 2/21?

www.americanwx.com

Ignore most of them. As soon as one model run doesn't show a blizzard they start whining. Setup is still great and numerous runs still look good. I'm not going to worry until or unless we start to see some wholesale shift in most of the models towards a less snowy solution, which we have not seen yet.

 

[RUPete]

Lots of negative talk here regarding Wed - Thursdays chances. I don't think they are very confident. I know I'm not

Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 18z Wed 2/19-12z Fri 2/21?

www.americanwx.com

Interesting. I need to check that out. It’s probably irresponsible to post accumulation projections this far out.

 

[bac2therac]

Ignore most of them. As soon as one model run doesn't show a blizzard they start whining. Setup is still great and numerous runs still look good. I'm not going to worry until or unless we start to see some wholesale shift in most of the models towards a less snowy solution, which we have not seen yet.

The reality is the big storm they crave 12 plus inches looks less likely

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

Ignore most of them. As soon as one model run doesn't show a blizzard they start whining. Setup is still great and numerous runs still look good. I'm not going to worry until or unless we start to see some wholesale shift in most of the models towards a less snowy solution, which we have not seen yet.

"I'm not going to worry until or unless we start to see some wholesale shift..........that says it all. It should be the other way around. Who needs 2 feet of snow?

 

[fsg2]

"I'm not going to worry until or unless we start to see some wholesale shift..........that says it all. It should be the other way around. Who needs 2 feet of snow?

Real dogs love snow.

 

[RUhasarrived]

I'm still rooting for Blutarski's GPA.

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

Real dogs love snow.

Not if it covers my bits.

 

[bac2therac]

"I'm not going to worry until or unless we start to see some wholesale shift..........that says it all. It should be the other way around. Who needs 2 feet of snow?

Imagine rooting for 2 feet...he needs to read the room