Haven't been paying attention to that thread because I don't manage my investments. For sure competition is coming. How it plays out in the stock market I have no idea; just not my area of expertise.
OT: Electric vehicles
- Thread starter BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap
- Start date
Tesla barely squeaked by. The model 3 ramp nearly buried the company. They were weeks away, literally, from folding. I know I sound like a broken record, but producing profitably at scale is insanely difficult. That's not my opinion, that's what history has proven. Some will make it, most will likely fail.
but you're already asserting that lucid will fail. merely stating that the ability to produce and profit at scale is valid and acceptable as fact, but when you're saying that lucid will fail, GM will fail...that's your opinion and can't be stated as a matter of fact. again, time will tell, some of us will have our opinions about the future proven wrong, while others proven right, but being dismissive is going to lead to being wrong more often than not.
So the more money backing the enterprise the better. LCID has significant backing. RIVN has AMZN backing it. The legacies make plenty of money to back the EV.
More rumors today about Apple getting into the space. They obviously have a ton of money.
Point being, I believe that competition is coming in the EV space.
Well all (or most) of the domestic union manufacturing facilities are in blue states and non-union manufacturing facilities are in red states. Who'd a thunk it.
Yes, deep pockets help. I guess we're going to discover the pain threshold of the Saudis and Amazon.
Apple rumors are nothing new. I wouldn't put any weight into it.
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I know they're losing money. They're just getting started and have lots of startup expenses. That's to be expected with all startups - especially an auto maker given the enormous startup costs involved.
Are you factoring in startup costs? In which case, saying it as "losing money on every sale" is misleading.
So which companies, besides Tesla, do you expect to succeed over the next 20-30 years? And which companies do you think will overtake Tesla in that time period?
And by selling and building cars in China Tesla has given them any proprietary technology incorporated in them. With a market of 1.4 billion Nio or another company will overtake them in the long run.
china has already been building EV's for a while. it's not like they're waiting around for Tesla's blueprint.
Tesla open sources their patents. They don't need to be in China for Nio to look under the hood.
This list is not an at-a-glance reliable reference. Many, if not most, of these "defunct" companies were acquired by other companies and their original branding subsequently discontinued.
Sure, I'll give you most. No idea if that's true, but it's irrelevant anyway. Yet, after 100 years we still had the "big 3". 2 of which have gone bankrupt and needed a government bailout. My point still stands... Being successful in the automotive business is ridiculously difficult. I suppose you disagree. Maybe you should give it a shot.
I don't know why you would say that I disagreed. Nowhere did I do that.
you do realize that government intervention in the auto industry is not something that is unique the US, right? lower saxony has ownership stake in VW. France still owns a piece of Stellantis I believe, and the Italian gov't is looking to buy into Stellantis, the French own a portion of Renault-Nissan.
I am considering canceling my ID 4 order if it doesn’t arrive by end of the year. Don’t want to wait a year for my tax credit. Plus if new EV incentives go through, I might be going with a Mach-E instead.
ETA: scratch the Mach-E. It’s not made by the unions and battery is LG. On the plus side, my F 150 lighting should check all the boxes.
ETA: scratch the Mach-E. It’s not made by the unions and battery is LG. On the plus side, my F 150 lighting should check all the boxes.
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I ordered it in July. Was supposed to be delivered by Oct/Nov. I can track the status and it has not left the factory yet.
Tesla recalls Model S, X for faulty driver-side air bags
Tesla is recalling more than 7,500 examples of the Model S and X due a potentially faulty airbag that can be damaged during deployment.
www.autoblog.com
Respectfully disagree - The tesla factories are already pumping out cars 3 times faster than the OEM's and that is with 30 percent margins - while the OEM's are doing 7 percent margins. And that is before the Giga press's becomes fully operational. This incredible profit margin and volume is about to swallow GM - of course Mary continues to focus on diversity - that will produce and sell great cars.
Do we think TSLA's profit margin is helped by the fact that they are the lone EV player in town? And if so, will competition cut into that profit margin?
Austin and Berlin are the 3rd generation Tesla factory. Greater efficiencies. 2 million vehicles/year for each. Greater economies of scale. Everyone seems to be forgetting about Tesla's in-house 4680s cells too. 56% cost reduction at the pack level. Battery cell production on site. Expect margins to approach 40%.
Again, great company, but why do you assume that everyone will be driving a Tesla? I believe they currently produce 4 models. Is it not conceivable that other EV companies will be able to compete solely by virtue of the fact that the Tesla design doesn’t appeal to everyone? Perfect example, my mother-in-law is in the market for an EV and she doesn’t like the look of the Tesla. She’s 71. Not surprisingly she is probably going to buy the Mach-E. Cars are almost entirely dependent on personal preference, which varies greatly.
GM's profit margins are what they are because they build a range of vehicles from the $15k Spark to $100k+ Cadillacs. They lose money on every Spark they produce - the margins reside in more expensive vehicles. This has always been the formula, going back decades. Manufacturers build inexpensive loss-leaders to meet CAFE requirements and bring new buyers into the showrooms to build brand loyalty.
Tesla doesn't have to play that game and their least expensive vehicle goes out the door for near enough $50k.
Corporate margins are not a good comparative metric.
For simplicity, let's talk battery cells. EVs need cells, right? Tesla has the 3 biggest contracts with the 3 largest cell suppliers (Panasonic, LG-Chem, CATL). They've said repeatedly at earnings calls, they will buy as many cells as their suppliers can produce. Tesla will also be manufacturing their own cells, the 4680s. Berlin and Austin will manufacture 4680s on site. 200 GWh of batteries at each factory. How many is 200 GWh? Tesla will produce more cells at one factory (likely to reach full volume production in 2023) than any other auto plans on using by 2025. By 2025, Austin alone will produce more Teslas than the total EV output of the big 3 combined. Tesla's lead is GROWING. This is the reality of the situation. I have 0 concern regarding demand. Tesla has been increasing pricing and demand is still growing. If demand starts to wane, Tesla will reduce pricing and still remain profitable.
Other EVs will sell. I have never doubted that. The big questions is how does traditional auto cannibalize their profitable ICE business for a currently non-profitable EV business. This will not be a bloodless transition. Jim Farley and Herbert Diess recently said the exact same thing. They're finally being open and honest about the difficulty of the transition. Mary Barra is another story.
BTW... I think it's totally awesome that your 71 year old mother is buying an EV. Good luck to her!
Here's the thing. With governments starting to set targets (which will soon become mandates, if they haven't already), the traditional companies have no choice but to retool. So...because they HAVE to retool, there is no choice but to cannibalize as you said. While there will be short term pain to get there, companies will come out the other end and more than compete with Tesla. It's their only chance at survival. And in the case of Rivian and Lucid, and whatever other EV only companies start popping up, new challengers will enter the fray. This is always how the auto industry has worked. Always. Ford was the early leader - new production methods, mass production, etc etc. They were caught, and then exceeded by GM...and that cycle would continue until today. Opening up a lead is good, but as history has shown, that lead gets chipped away and parity is reached until the next innovation, when the cycle starts over again.
I'll just leave this here:
Remarks by President Biden on the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
NOVEMBER 17, 2021
"And, folks, when you see these projects starting in your hometowns, I want you to feel the way I feel: pride in what we can do when we’re together as the United States of America.
And it starts here in Detroit. In the auto industry, Detroit is leading the world in electric vehicles. You know how critical it is.
Mary, I can remember talking to you way back in January about the need for America to lead in electric vehicles. And I can remember your dramatic announcement that by 2035, GM would be 100 percent electric.
You changed the whole story, Mary, wherever — (applause) — wherever you are. There you are. You did, Mary. You electrified the entire automobile industry. I’m serious. You led — and it matters — in drastically improving the climate by reducing hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that will not be used when we’re all electric.
You know, up until now, China has been leading in this race, but that’s about to change."
Remarks by President Biden on the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
NOVEMBER 17, 2021
"And, folks, when you see these projects starting in your hometowns, I want you to feel the way I feel: pride in what we can do when we’re together as the United States of America.
And it starts here in Detroit. In the auto industry, Detroit is leading the world in electric vehicles. You know how critical it is.
Mary, I can remember talking to you way back in January about the need for America to lead in electric vehicles. And I can remember your dramatic announcement that by 2035, GM would be 100 percent electric.
You changed the whole story, Mary, wherever — (applause) — wherever you are. There you are. You did, Mary. You electrified the entire automobile industry. I’m serious. You led — and it matters — in drastically improving the climate by reducing hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that will not be used when we’re all electric.
You know, up until now, China has been leading in this race, but that’s about to change."
Yup, China with the help of Tesla. Totally understand why he would say this.
That quote is one of the most incredibly ridiculous statements a president has ever made. GM is doomed - bank on it - and Mary knows it and is planting the seeds for the next bail out. One last thing, how long have we all heard "the competition is coming" - still waiting
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