Who remembers?? Jan 26th 2015. Schools and offices closing for days in advance. People descending on the supermarkets for a week's worth of essentials. Then, bupkis!
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Need to revive that thread!!!Why forecasters got the ‘monster’ Blizzard of 2015 so very wrong for N.J.
What could get the most attention in the aftermath of the blown forecast is the correct solution was staring the weather service in the face the entire time.www.nj.com
Your probably correct. Or #s paid John 0 some big $ to delete it 🤣i bet it was locked
sometimes some of these threads fall through the cracks but for some reason are not searchable. I know alot of the weather threads end up being locked...i did see some round table archive threads from 2011!Sadly the catalog for threads goes back to mid-Feb, 2015. Prior to that, once threads fell off the page they weren't saved. Sucks. I'm sure the older threads exist somewhere, but there's just no way to access them.
Not the biggest, IMO, especially for NYC, the NJ coast and areas NE of there that at least got 8-14" of snow, but was definitely the biggest bust I can recall west of those areas in most of NJ/EPA that generally got a few inches to maybe 3-6" (we got 6" in Metuchen) vs forecasts of 18-30". IMO, March 2001 was just as bad and worse for my house and NYC, where the whole region was forecast to get 1-2 feet of snow even after the storm started and almost everyone SW of CT got only 2-4" of snow/sleet, if that (we got 2"). Both were pretty bad.Who remembers?? Jan 26th 2015. Schools and offices closing for days in advance. People descending on the supermarkets for a week's worth of essentials. Then, bupkis!
That was a fun day. :)Who remembers?? Jan 26th 2015. Schools and offices closing for days in advance. People descending on the supermarkets for a week's worth of essentials. Then, bupkis!
IIRC, you ran away and hid for a week or two. Almost felt bad for you on that one.I actually saved most of that thread on my computer and could probably share a page or two if anyone is truly interested. It was baaaaaaadddd, lol. I remember going to Hailey's pub that evening to enjoy the first part and we got about 3" by 10 pm, but then it lightened up and I got a bit nervous, so we went home and I saw all hell had broken loose on the weather boards, but the NWS hadn't backed off yet. I posted in the thread that the storm was likely to be way underdone SW of NYC, but way too late for it to be meaningful. Shit happens.
lol, no, wrong as usual. I always stick around even after a bust, as busts are learning experiences.IIRC, you ran away and hid for a week or two. Almost felt bad for you on that one.
There was definitely one mega-bust that broke you for a while. Thought it was this one, but not sure.lol, no, wrong as usual. I always stick around even after a bust, as busts are learning experiences.
lol, no, wrong as usual. I always stick around even after a bust, as busts are learning experiences.
learning experiences and yet people always memoryhole themlol, no, wrong as usual. I always stick around even after a bust, as busts are learning experiences.
The forecast was even more bullish the day before the map you posted came out (the map above is from Monday morning, while the map below was from Sunday afternoon). The interesting thing was that almost all of the models on Sunday night backed off considerably on snowfall (to about 8-14" for eastern NJ and 4-8" for western NJ, roughly), but the Euro and NAM did not, so the NWS only lowered snowfall forecasts a bit. And then the Monday 6Z and 12Z models went back to showing more significant snows again - except for the GFS.Never forget.
So what did the real map end up looking like?Never forget.
Here you go. There's also a good 10-page thread on AmericanWx about the bust and the WaPo article is also very good. It's also interesting that as much as people dis TWC, they were the only major outlet I know of that never bought into more than 18" for NYC or anywhere in NJ, as they were riding the GFS and the GFS ended up being right. Was a huge coup for them. Problem was for the 2-3 storms before that in 2015, the GFS performed horribly, so it's easy to see why it was dismissed especially when the Euro and NAM were well aligned on big snows. In the old days, there used to be an "EE rule" that whenever the Euro and the NAM (then known as the ETA) were aligned, they should be followed. It generally worked pretty well, but not this time. My more detailed post-mortem from the storm, which I posted here and elsewhere, is below.So what did the real map end up looking like?
The actual totals.
I tend not to remember things that never happened.Who remembers?? Jan 26th 2015. Schools and offices closing for days in advance. People descending on the supermarkets for a week's worth of essentials. Then, bupkis!
lol, no, wrong as usual. I always stick around even after a bust, as busts are learning experiences.
If you’re in central jersey we had big december storms in both 09 and 10.The snow storm I remember hitting my area really hard was I believe Dec 2009 or 2010.
I didn't remember this at all, until yesterday when a Facebook post of mine from 2015 came up. Trying to recall this...Who remembers?? Jan 26th 2015. Schools and offices closing for days in advance. People descending on the supermarkets for a week's worth of essentials. Then, bupkis!