OT: 3/3-4 Storm Mostly Wet, Except N of 78 (and esp N of 80)...and the Coming Colder (and snowy?) Pattern
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
No real forecast change for tonight, other than the NWS posting a coastal flood warning for moderate flooding for Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and SE Burlington Counties, as well as for NYC/LI. The example one, below is for Middlesex/Monmouth with the rest looking similar. Not life threatening flooding, but still could be quite impactful to some structures and traffic in some locations. Also, as expected, wind advisories were put up for the NJ coast and LI and for most of SNJ for gusts up to 50 mph tonight and winds will even gust to 40 mph inland.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=coastal flood warning
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
204 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
NJZ012>014-040800-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0001.230304T0800Z-230304T1600Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
204 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
* WHERE...Middlesex, Western Monmouth and Eastern Monmouth.
* WHEN...From 3 AM to 11 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...At this level, widespread roadway flooding occurs in
coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal
waterways. Many roads become impassable. Some damage to
vulnerable structures may begin to occur.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread moderate tidal flooding is
expected. There is potential for some tidal gauges to reach
major flood stage along Raritan Bay.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=coastal flood warning
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
204 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
NJZ012>014-040800-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0001.230304T0800Z-230304T1600Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
204 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level
expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
* WHERE...Middlesex, Western Monmouth and Eastern Monmouth.
* WHEN...From 3 AM to 11 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...At this level, widespread roadway flooding occurs in
coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal
waterways. Many roads become impassable. Some damage to
vulnerable structures may begin to occur.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread moderate tidal flooding is
expected. There is potential for some tidal gauges to reach
major flood stage along Raritan Bay.
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True, but the big difference, now, is that we no longer have La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which most global weather experts feel should allow the pattern to finally change, including suppressing that subtropical ridge. Obviously, there are no aboslutes in weather forecasting (why I said it's "almost a lock"), but this certainly looks different from other 2-3 week forecasts earlier this winter. We'll see soon...
But even Donald Sutherland isn’t on board with this on American Weather. Always thought he was great in Ordinary People and as the pyromaniac in Backdraft.
Not sure what you mean. His latest post says, "After what increasingly appears to be a warmer than normal first week to March, a colder regime could develop during the second week of the month. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March" and in a second post he noted the Euro idea of potentially cold and snowy weather. But my favorite work of his was in M*A*S*H.
The only difference I see is temps turning near normal. The next 10 days show the lowest low 46 degrees and some low 50s too! Are your predicting freezing highs in March?? Like you I been outdoors a lot this winter. Finally the West Coast is getting the hard winter and we are on cruise control.
“No severe March cold appears likely.” Then he singles out one week that could, emphasis on could, be 5-8 degrees below normal. Not a big deal in my opinion.
I never said anything about severe cold (although I wouldn't rule a bit of that out), so we agree that the cold being forecast is unlikely to be a "big deal" on its own (but it's still noteworthy to me) - the key thing is whether below normal temps in much of March will, along with potential coastal lows, lead to more snow than usual. I only said that much of March (generally after about 3/9) would be colder than normal, based on CPC and the models, due largely to a pattern change, as well explained by the sources I linked in my initial post. CPC is still predicting this to verify.
And DS also added this to his one week of very cold temps: "The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March" which aligns with what I've been saying, if the "could" part comes true (very hard to say now). Also, by the way, a "colder/warmer than normal" period would typically be about 2.0F below/above the mean, such that 1/3 of the dataset are below normal, 1/3 are normal and 1/3 are above normal. FYI, in NB, the March mean temp, overall, is 40.5F (and on 3/15 the avg high/low is 50/31F), with 1/3 of Marches below 38.5F or "colder than normal" and 1/3 of Marches above 40.5F or "warmer than normal" (with 1/3 being normal at 38.5-42.5F).
It’s still about “could” and threading the needle though. And to be fair to Mr. Sutherland, he doesn’t really talk about coastal lows interacting with these potentially lower than normal temperatures.
It’s always possible that we could get a crazy March storm as you and I have seen a fair amount in our lifetime, but nothing from his recent post, at least to me, indicates such a storm or scenario is likely.
See the post I just made. Was talking from about 3/9 onward and starting then, temps look to be about normal for a couple of days and after that I simply wouldn't trust any website, as that's beyond 7 days. Also, as I said in that other post, "colder than normal" simply means at least a 2F departure from the avg high and low for a day (so for 3/15, for example, 48/29F would be 2F below the normal of 50/31F) - it doesn't mean "brutally cold." We'll just have to see how it plays out. And yes, this winter (esp Jan/Feb) has been ridiculously warm, as per the graphic I shared in the first post.
What was a fail? Forecast for this system has been pretty good with significant snow/sleet confined to Sussex/NW Passaic and the Poconos and N of there and heavy rain for everyone else with high winds and likely coastal flooding. We don't know yet about the pattern outcome yet - way too far in the future to declare any outcome. Do you really want to turn into T here?
1) Because they are in on it
2) Because you have what it takes to critically analyze it. They don’t.
Coastal flooding here in Manasquan wasn't much more than a moon tide from what I saw driving around about an hour ago.
For those familiar Main St west of the bridge and of course Brielle Rd but went away fairly quickly.
The Rutgers weather station in Sea Girt did measure wind gusts as high as 57 out of the SE around 1AM but even those had died down significantly rather quickly and changed direction which may be why the tidal flooding wasn't bad.
For the year? Perhaps read this first -
14 biggest snowstorms that hit N.J. in March and April
It’s not uncommon for New Jersey and other areas of the eastern U.S. to get hit with major snowstorms as late as March or April. Here's some proof.
For me it's the perfect sleeping weather, love to be tucked in and a storm raging above me. Very relaxing.
Ever try it on a sailing yacht an anchor off a tropical island? If not, you must. Really. You'll thank me.
So, the past 2-3 days of modeling has been literally all over the place for next weekend's potential event. 2-3 days ago, there were indications of a possible major snowstorm for our region, but that largely evaporated over the last 48 hours, at least on the operational model runs of the GFS (was showing a cutter into the Great Lakes), CMC and the Euro somewhat (but it was showing a very close call for us). However, the ensemble means for all three models were showing potential for at least some wintry weather next weekend somewhere at least close to our area (i.e., not agreeing with the operational model run, which is kind of the "best guess" ensemble member).
That is until tonight's 0Z model suite. We're now within 7 days, where deterministic modeling forecasts start becoming more accurate (which is why the NWS will likely never go beyond a 7-day forecast - they're simply too inaccurate) and we saw some big changes tonight. The big news is the Euro has finally come back to a serious snowmageddon outcome for just about all of the Philly-NJ-NYC-LI-New England region. I won't post maps this far out, as so much can still change, but I guarantee you'll be seeing the Euro map on social media tomorrow, if not sooner. We're talking 1-2 feet of snow, but it's just one model run, so should be largely ignored until we have more consensus on what is really going to happen, perhaps 3-4 days from now. If you want to see the maps, check the thread on 33andrain, where you can follow along in real time as the models come out every 6 hours and chuckle at the alternating euphoria and despair - kind of like being an RU hoops fan lately.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2117-wintry-weather-2022-2023-midlong-range-discussion/page/472/
And the GFS went from a cutter to a major snowstorm for central/northern New England, the CMC has a raging rainstorm for the mid-Atlantic south of DC, and the UK (which only runs out to Friday) is hinting at a snowstorm for the east coast 24 hours past the end of its run. At 7 days out, we'll never see consensus, but the key is the models are all showing a significant a storm for the eastern US which is noteworthy. Bottom line is our chances of appreciable snow next weekend just went up a notch, but we're way too far out to bank on any snow at all, as we've seen this kind of thing in the past (not much this winter, where there simply haven't been major snowstorms even in 10-15 day fantasy land).
One more thing: most of the models are showing an Alberta Clipper type system for Monday night into Tuesday morning potentially bringing a period of snow (and maybe rain, especially towards the coast) for the region with the possibility of an inch or maybe two of snow, although a couple of models are showing no snow. The ceiling for this event looks to be 2-3" and not necessarily everywhere, given marginal temps. The floor is zip.
That is until tonight's 0Z model suite. We're now within 7 days, where deterministic modeling forecasts start becoming more accurate (which is why the NWS will likely never go beyond a 7-day forecast - they're simply too inaccurate) and we saw some big changes tonight. The big news is the Euro has finally come back to a serious snowmageddon outcome for just about all of the Philly-NJ-NYC-LI-New England region. I won't post maps this far out, as so much can still change, but I guarantee you'll be seeing the Euro map on social media tomorrow, if not sooner. We're talking 1-2 feet of snow, but it's just one model run, so should be largely ignored until we have more consensus on what is really going to happen, perhaps 3-4 days from now. If you want to see the maps, check the thread on 33andrain, where you can follow along in real time as the models come out every 6 hours and chuckle at the alternating euphoria and despair - kind of like being an RU hoops fan lately.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2117-wintry-weather-2022-2023-midlong-range-discussion/page/472/
And the GFS went from a cutter to a major snowstorm for central/northern New England, the CMC has a raging rainstorm for the mid-Atlantic south of DC, and the UK (which only runs out to Friday) is hinting at a snowstorm for the east coast 24 hours past the end of its run. At 7 days out, we'll never see consensus, but the key is the models are all showing a significant a storm for the eastern US which is noteworthy. Bottom line is our chances of appreciable snow next weekend just went up a notch, but we're way too far out to bank on any snow at all, as we've seen this kind of thing in the past (not much this winter, where there simply haven't been major snowstorms even in 10-15 day fantasy land).
One more thing: most of the models are showing an Alberta Clipper type system for Monday night into Tuesday morning potentially bringing a period of snow (and maybe rain, especially towards the coast) for the region with the possibility of an inch or maybe two of snow, although a couple of models are showing no snow. The ceiling for this event looks to be 2-3" and not necessarily everywhere, given marginal temps. The floor is zip.
Yeah, but it could double snowfall totals for some, especially south of 78, lol...
Blah blah #FakeNews
I already put the shovels in the shed - a whole 25 yards from the house.
Winter is over. No more snow coming.
Winter Is Coming, lol. The GFS finally caved to the Euro and shows a coastal snowstorm for next weekend (not epic, but significant for our area), while the CMC shows a nice storm for Cleveland and a coastal popping for central/northern New England (but not us) and the UK now shows a nice coastal bringing major snowfall to most of the area, especially N of 276/195. Euro up around 1 pm.
Still nowhere near consensus on a snowstorm for our area, but we're getting close to consensus on a major winter storm affecting some or all of the 95 corridor from DC to Maine (and inland) with heavy snow and/or rain. Not worth a new thread, IMO until we're inside of 5 days (i.e., Monday night) and assuming we have at least 3 of the 4 major global models showing significant snow for our area.
Edit: the Euro shows a significant (but not historic like last night's run) winter storm for the area with snow along/NW of 95 and snow/rain to the SE. Long way to go still.
2nd Edit: the Euro ensemble mean (averaging the outputs of 52 runs of the Euro, all with perturbations in various initial/boundary condition inputs to the numerical model done to assess the model sensitivity to such changes, since the accuracy of the inputs for the operational model are iffy this far out) shows a likely major winter snowstorm for the whole area and ensemble means are the better way to go more than 4-5 days out relative to the operational model
Also, the little clipper Mon night/Tues am looks like it's going to put down 0.2-0.3" of precip, but half of the models have that as mostly rain falling in a NW to SE band south of 276/195, while one shows that as snow (2-4") for CNJ, whiile another has 2-4" of snow for far NNJ/NYC/Hudson Valley. It's a very borderline system, since it will be warm Monday (low 50s) and it will struggle to get down into the mid-30s during the precip, so even if it snows, it might be a grass/cartop snow.
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From the NWS 2 hours ago.....
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday should continue to feature high pressure
building southeastward from central Canada and into our region.
The axis of the surface ridge is forecast to pass off the coast
on Friday. Dry weather conditions are expected for all three
days along with slightly below normal temperatures.
There continues to be significant variations in the model
solutions for next weekend. The general theme is that low
pressure should pass across the Great Lakes, pulling a cold
front toward our region. There is some consensus that a
secondary low will develop in the southeastern states. However,
the placement and timing of all the details remains in flux. We
will maintain a chance of precipitation for Friday night into
the weekend.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday should continue to feature high pressure
building southeastward from central Canada and into our region.
The axis of the surface ridge is forecast to pass off the coast
on Friday. Dry weather conditions are expected for all three
days along with slightly below normal temperatures.
There continues to be significant variations in the model
solutions for next weekend. The general theme is that low
pressure should pass across the Great Lakes, pulling a cold
front toward our region. There is some consensus that a
secondary low will develop in the southeastern states. However,
the placement and timing of all the details remains in flux. We
will maintain a chance of precipitation for Friday night into
the weekend.
I once had a conversation with the legendary Walt Drag from the NWS in Boston and then later in Philly (he posts now as a civilian on the weather boards and is great) and he said the NWS rarely comments on winter storm details beyond what you posted above beyond 5 days out for good reason - way too much uncertainty and it unnecessarily can rile people up. Also, FYI, the main discussions come out twice a day at about 4 am and 4 pm, with occasional minor updated on the current weather in between those hours, so what you posted was actually from 3:34 am, not 2 hours ago.
I know it does. That's one of those minor updates for current conditions. The medium and long range discussions are almost never changed in those interim updates. Look at the 3:34 am discussion (click on "3" under previous discussions in the link you provided to get to the 3:34 am discussion) and you'll see the exact same long range discussion at 3:34 am, 6:18 am (click on "2") and 10:34 am.
I told a guy at the gym last Tuesday-after that storm-that we may get a repeat of the '67 weather pattern.
That year,it was relatively warm in Jan. and Feb. then BOOM.
It snowed on St.Patrick's Day to get things going,then remained mostly cold throughout the Memorial Day weekend.
About 20 years ago,I met a guy who got married on that weekend who told me that his marital bed wasn't the only thing that was cold.
1967 redux?
That year,it was relatively warm in Jan. and Feb. then BOOM.
It snowed on St.Patrick's Day to get things going,then remained mostly cold throughout the Memorial Day weekend.
About 20 years ago,I met a guy who got married on that weekend who told me that his marital bed wasn't the only thing that was cold.
1967 redux?
Why do you do bracketology weeks in advance? Very similar to this. In both cases, one is forecasting a future state, relative to the known current state and some imperfect, but relevant intelligence around what would be expected to happen over future events. The uncertainty is very, very high weeks in advance on bracketology and becomes highly accurate as one gets to the point of tourney selection, just as weather forecast models are highly inaccurate beyond 6-7 days out, but become highly accurate 12-24 hours before an event. And for people who enjoy meteorology, it's fun, just as bracketology is. So, I continue to have no idea why you continue to piss all over it, instead of maybe, you know, joining in and offering your opinion. It's not hard.
As of the 6 o'clock news there was no mention of snow for the entire Philadelphia region which includes the Poconos for next weekend.
