It better not be! I have a hot date with John.
There was a blizzard in 2010 when I had tickets to see him. 😭
OT: 3/3-4 Storm Mostly Wet, Except N of 78 (and esp N of 80)...and the Coming Colder (and snowy?) Pattern
- Thread starter RU848789
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There was a blizzard in 2010 when I had tickets to see him. 😭
Tonight's 0Z operational model runs still show winter storms in the Saturday timeframe, but mostly not quite for us, as the GFS shows a coastal developing too late for us with a significant winter storm for N of 84 and for New England, the CMC shows a fairly weak storm giving a few inches N of 80 and the UK shows a moderate snowstorm SW of Wilmington, but no coastal for us at all, while the Euro shows a moderate snowfall for our area N of 276/195 (and rain south of there).
But the ensemble run means still show moderate to significant snow for our entire area on Saturday, meaning that the operational runs of these two models are not in good agreement with their ensembles, which often indicates some very high sensitivity of the op runs to some factor that drives a major deviation from the mean and is why most pros generally look more closely at the ensembles this far out (we're still almost 6 days out).
So, again, the bottom line is it's quite possible we could have a moderate to significant winter storm (snow and/or rain) on Saturday, but the uncertainty is very high and we could also have a complete miss or just be on the fringes of a substantial storm. Anyone who thinks they "know" for sure which way this is going to go is probably full of crapola - and definitely not ready for a new thread yet. As an aside, all of the long range models show another potentially significant winter storm for our area on 3/13 into 3/14, but that's way too far out to discuss more than that.
Perhaps the more interesting outcome of tonight's model runs is that the Euro, GFS and NAM (and long range HRRR) all show 2-4/2-4" for a narrow band through CNJ for the clipper for Mon night into early Tuesday (with rain generally south of 195). It's a really marginal setup with temps in the 33-35F range, such that snow may only accumulate on grass/colder surfaces, although it being at night time should keep it from being completely white rain that doesn't accumulate at all (which would likely be the outcome if this occurred during the day in March). The NWS map is below and I think they're discounting the greater amounts seen in the models above for CNJ for now (understandable).
But the ensemble run means still show moderate to significant snow for our entire area on Saturday, meaning that the operational runs of these two models are not in good agreement with their ensembles, which often indicates some very high sensitivity of the op runs to some factor that drives a major deviation from the mean and is why most pros generally look more closely at the ensembles this far out (we're still almost 6 days out).
So, again, the bottom line is it's quite possible we could have a moderate to significant winter storm (snow and/or rain) on Saturday, but the uncertainty is very high and we could also have a complete miss or just be on the fringes of a substantial storm. Anyone who thinks they "know" for sure which way this is going to go is probably full of crapola - and definitely not ready for a new thread yet. As an aside, all of the long range models show another potentially significant winter storm for our area on 3/13 into 3/14, but that's way too far out to discuss more than that.
Perhaps the more interesting outcome of tonight's model runs is that the Euro, GFS and NAM (and long range HRRR) all show 2-4/2-4" for a narrow band through CNJ for the clipper for Mon night into early Tuesday (with rain generally south of 195). It's a really marginal setup with temps in the 33-35F range, such that snow may only accumulate on grass/colder surfaces, although it being at night time should keep it from being completely white rain that doesn't accumulate at all (which would likely be the outcome if this occurred during the day in March). The NWS map is below and I think they're discounting the greater amounts seen in the models above for CNJ for now (understandable).
Well, the NWS adjusted snowfall up for CNJ and into the Lehigh Valley/Poconos, given the mode outputs I mentioned last night - updated map is below. Could be a surprise inch or two overnight tonight for many...
haha not if your roof springs a leak into your tv room of all places and small branches are ripped off flying into the house
Tonight's 0Z operational model runs still show winter storms in the Saturday timeframe, but mostly not quite for us, as the GFS shows a coastal developing too late for us with a significant winter storm for N of 84 and for New England, the CMC shows a fairly weak storm giving a few inches N of 80 and the UK shows a moderate snowstorm SW of Wilmington, but no coastal for us at all, while the Euro shows a moderate snowfall for our area N of 276/195 (and rain south of there).
But the ensemble run means still show moderate to significant snow for our entire area on Saturday, meaning that the operational runs of these two models are not in good agreement with their ensembles, which often indicates some very high sensitivity of the op runs to some factor that drives a major deviation from the mean and is why most pros generally look more closely at the ensembles this far out (we're still almost 6 days out).
So, again, the bottom line is it's quite possible we could have a moderate to significant winter storm (snow and/or rain) on Saturday, but the uncertainty is very high and we could also have a complete miss or just be on the fringes of a substantial storm. Anyone who thinks they "know" for sure which way this is going to go is probably full of crapola - and definitely not ready for a new thread yet. As an aside, all of the long range models show another potentially significant winter storm for our area on 3/13 into 3/14, but that's way too far out to discuss more than that.
Perhaps the more interesting outcome of tonight's model runs is that the Euro, GFS and NAM (and long range HRRR) all show 2-4/2-4" for a narrow band through CNJ for the clipper for Mon night into early Tuesday (with rain generally south of 195). It's a really marginal setup with temps in the 33-35F range, such that snow may only accumulate on grass/colder surfaces, although it being at night time should keep it from being completely white rain that doesn't accumulate at all (which would likely be the outcome if this occurred during the day in March). The NWS map is below and I think they're discounting the greater amounts seen in the models above for CNJ for now (understandable).
Saturday's threat is definitely still in play, despite the wild fluctuations in the models today, especially given the GFS dropping a bomb on LI/southern New England (10-18") and giving NNJ/NYC 6" or more and even 2-5" for CNJ. And the UK is a near miss with 1-3" for CNJ and mostly rain south of there, while the CMC mostly misses to our south with rain and maybe 1-2" for CNJ and the Euro gives us some light snow (1-2" in CNJ) but doesn't crank up the snow until it's too far out to sea.
However, the big bomb of a snowstorm idea that had been shown on some earlier runs of some models is looking a bit less unlikely, but not dead either, given the GFS depiction. I had hoped we'd have more consensus 4.5 days out, but we actually probably have even less, which simply highlights how exquisitely sensitive the models are to fairly minor perturbations in initial/boundary conditions and key inflection points during the evolution of the system. Even if we don't have great consensus tomorrow, but still show even a moderate snow threat, I'll likely start a thread tomorrow afternoon after seeing what the 12Z models have to say.
And a couple of models are now showing a chance of a significant snowstorm starting next Monday night, so more to track.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2117-wintry-weather-2022-2023-midlong-range-discussion/page/521/
More model mayhem at 12Z today with outcomes being anything from a significant snowstorm for most to a moderate snowstorm for NW areas, but mostly rain along/SE of 95 to largely a whiff and with odd variations, as it's really two lows: one approaching from the Ohio Valley and then a secondary coastal low that is mostly going out to sea, but does bring some precip in some models, especially near the coast (rain in most, but not all models). The NWS eris not enthusiastic about much snow south of 78, but they're generally conservative this far out. About to start a new thread...
This map was much closer to reality, at least on the southern fringes, compared to the overblown map the NWS put out late last night around 10pm. 😳 The late map came out maybe 2 hours before the precip started, and had Trenton in the 1-2 band. We got barely a coating. Cranbury/East Windsor closer to an inch but definitely not over.Well, the NWS adjusted snowfall up for CNJ and into the Lehigh Valley/Poconos, given the mode outputs I mentioned last night - updated map is below. Could be a surprise inch or two overnight tonight for many...
