A possible winter storm thread 6 days out (arriving late Sat with most precip on Sunday) would normally get laughed at (by me, too, lol), but it's been so long since we've even had a decent threat that I figured people might want to know, even if it's a very fragile setup that could easily miss us or bring everyone but those well inland mostly rain. As DT/WxRisk, who has been on top of this threat for days always says, look for all the things that can go wrong in a possible snowstorm forecast, as it's often hard to get conditions just right for snow for the 95 corridor.
In this case, there's not a lot of cold air to work with and the track has to be perfect for us to snow for this potential Miller B storm, in which a primary low approaches from the west (TN/KY typically) and transfers its energy to a secondary coastal low off the NC/VA coast, which becomes the main storm as a nor'easter coming up the coast (pulling in both Gulf and Atlantic moisture feeds), i.e., a snowstorm is a real "thread the needle" situation.
Right now, the latest operational model cycle (12Z, which just came out) shows everything from a major snowstorm to our south (the GFS, with south of LBI getting hit good), to a major rainstorm for 95/coast, but a major snowstorm well inland of 95 and a mix in-between (the UK/CMC) to a major snowstorm for 95 and inland, but mostly rain at the coast (the Euro). And last night's models all showed a major winter storm with similarly varying outcomes, as uncertainty is just too great to make any predictions yet. The important thing is consensus on a storm with the details to be determined later. At this range, the ensemble forecasts are probably better to look at and they're all showing potential for some snowfall, but also some rainfall for most of us.
Good thread on AmericanWx below, and nice NWS-Philly discussion, too. At least snow lovers have something to track. Also, there's a chance of some light snow (<1") on Thursday morning.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...eases-jan-10-and-beyond-damaging-wind/page/7/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
900 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday a secondary front tries to slip southward across the
area just ahead of an approaching low pressure form the Gulf.
Just how much impact this reinforcing front and the high
pressure moving in behind it has could make all the difference
regarding what type of weather the incoming Gulf system brings.
Potential exists for the first significant snowfall in nearly 2
years, but there remains great uncertainty, since lesser impact
from the high to the north may allow the system to stay further
northwest and bring more rain vs snow. Rain of course will bring
its own problems given how wet it has been of late, and onshore
flow will create another coastal flood concern. Bottom line is
there is a definite potential for an impactful system this
weekend, but exactly what flavor those impacts take remains to
be seen. Anyone with plans this weekend should keep very close
eyes on the forecast as there is a high potential for
fluctuations.
In this case, there's not a lot of cold air to work with and the track has to be perfect for us to snow for this potential Miller B storm, in which a primary low approaches from the west (TN/KY typically) and transfers its energy to a secondary coastal low off the NC/VA coast, which becomes the main storm as a nor'easter coming up the coast (pulling in both Gulf and Atlantic moisture feeds), i.e., a snowstorm is a real "thread the needle" situation.
Right now, the latest operational model cycle (12Z, which just came out) shows everything from a major snowstorm to our south (the GFS, with south of LBI getting hit good), to a major rainstorm for 95/coast, but a major snowstorm well inland of 95 and a mix in-between (the UK/CMC) to a major snowstorm for 95 and inland, but mostly rain at the coast (the Euro). And last night's models all showed a major winter storm with similarly varying outcomes, as uncertainty is just too great to make any predictions yet. The important thing is consensus on a storm with the details to be determined later. At this range, the ensemble forecasts are probably better to look at and they're all showing potential for some snowfall, but also some rainfall for most of us.
Good thread on AmericanWx below, and nice NWS-Philly discussion, too. At least snow lovers have something to track. Also, there's a chance of some light snow (<1") on Thursday morning.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...eases-jan-10-and-beyond-damaging-wind/page/7/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
900 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday a secondary front tries to slip southward across the
area just ahead of an approaching low pressure form the Gulf.
Just how much impact this reinforcing front and the high
pressure moving in behind it has could make all the difference
regarding what type of weather the incoming Gulf system brings.
Potential exists for the first significant snowfall in nearly 2
years, but there remains great uncertainty, since lesser impact
from the high to the north may allow the system to stay further
northwest and bring more rain vs snow. Rain of course will bring
its own problems given how wet it has been of late, and onshore
flow will create another coastal flood concern. Bottom line is
there is a definite potential for an impactful system this
weekend, but exactly what flavor those impacts take remains to
be seen. Anyone with plans this weekend should keep very close
eyes on the forecast as there is a high potential for
fluctuations.
