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OT: Could the snow drought end next weekend (1/7)? Maybe...

You know how these threads work by now. Numbers gives the board a responsible heads up summarizing what could potentially happen. Then Bac and T2K come on here and yank his chain. As the event draws closer or appears it will actually happen, Bac then contributes good observations along with Numbers and other mets on the board.
wash rinse repeat

if we didnt add an entertaiment factor to the board, it would be like watching The View
 
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You know how these threads work by now. Numbers gives the board a responsible heads up summarizing what could potentially happen. Then Bac and T2K come on here and yank his chain. As the event draws closer or appears it will actually happen, Bac then contributes good observations along with Numbers and other mets on the board.
And when it looks like it was another false alarm, gifs of various busts get posted! :)
 
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bottom line is it might snow but it might end up being snow to rain or all rain. What the models show 5-6 days is not accurate most of the time. Being in the sweet spot today is not necessarily the place you want to be 4-5 days out. I see a bit too much hype on the tv already and that is because of the snow drought lately and they know they can hook people in. Be aware a storm is coming this weekend but no one has a clue right now what is going to happen.
Do you plow/clear snow for your clients in the winter?
I have a good friend who does this, and he keeps a close eye on upcoming weather so he can plan for the storm (or lack of a storm).
 
Latest EURO is mostly rain for much of NJ. Not a great trend today for snow…plenty of time for change.
 
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Yep, today's 12z model runs were a little wetter, but we're still 4+ days out so let's see where we are when the main players are over the CONUS on Weds and sampled better for more accurate projections.
 
Numbers praying to the snow gods:

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Tonight's 0Z runs still all show a major winter storm with variation of outcomes. Euro/GFS both hammer the 95 corridor and NW of there with 6"+ of snow (* less towards the coast), while the CMC has only a few inches along 95, due to mostly rain falling, and 6"+ amounts a bit inland and the UK is even wetter with snowfall only 20-30 miles NW of 95 and no snow along/SE of 95.
* And that's only because I did the snowblower prep by myself and didn't pay for it. 🙂
 
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* And that's only because I did the snowblower prep by myself and didn't pay for it. 🙂
What am I supposed to do. I put the gas can in the garage. I normally plug in the snowblower with the electric start plugged in. I usually fire it up once to make sure it will start. But I'm not feeling the need with that forecast. I'm light years ahead of that sloth @koleszar , who is using his boxed snowblower as a work table. Sooner or later, one of us will pay the price.
 
Just prepped the snow blower so I'm sure there won't be snow now.
I purchased a Husqvarna about 5-7 years ago. I didn't use it the last two years as we got no snow that was deep enough. I noticed it was boke at the end of last winter when storing it for summer. The Husqvarna has a plastic console piece that the controllers go through and it cracked. Cold and plastic do go well together. Bad design from Husqvarna. I have the new controller in just gotta replace it now ugh
 
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I purchased a Husqvarna about 5-7 years ago. I didn't use it the last two years as we got no snow that was deep enough. I noticed it was boke at the end of last winter when storing it for summer. The Husqvarna has a plastic console piece that the controllers go through and it cracked. Cold and plastic do go well together. Bad design from Husqvarna. I have the new controller in just gotta replace it now ugh
My Husqvarna backpack blower has lasted forever. So long they don't make parts for it anymore. But I hear the newer ones aren't as good.

My Toro single stage snowblower (with electric start) is still going strong too.
 
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Gfs has a colder storm now…but not as powerful as in days pasts. Solid 4-8 inches across central nj. We keep tracking!
 
Philly stations are saying the shore very unlikely getting snow as the Ocean temps are around 47 and there will be a strong easterly wind blowing into the shoreline.
 
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Getting weather from tv stations who want you to watch them the next 4 days isn’t the best way to get HONEST forecast

If I tell you Tuesday afternoon, it’s going to rain instead of a possible 30 inch snow storm you will not watch the weather channel and then I will lose tons of potential ratings




 
Getting weather from tv stations who want you to watch them the next 4 days isn’t the best way to get HONEST forecast

If I tell you Tuesday afternoon, it’s going to rain instead of a possible 30 inch snow storm you will not watch the weather channel and then I will lose tons of potential ratings




Well you're wrong. Philadelphia stations are moving away from snow as of 5pm.
 
not much optimism on the americanwx weenie board
There will be shortly, as the 18Z GFS shows a major snowstorm )6-10" for most) for all of the big cities along 95 from DC to SE CT and the Euro ensembles are still showing several inches for the 95 corridor. But jumping on just the positive news is what weenies do. The ups and downs on those boards are comical sometimes. I'm just tracking and hoping, but way too early to get excited, as this could still easily be mostly rain for the 95 corridor. Not taking much seriously until we get to tomorrow's 12Z model runs, when the players should all be well sampled over the US.
 
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What is it showing for those of us up in Northern NJ?
Don't focus on any one model run - it's useless. Where in northern NJ makes a big difference. NW of 287 from 78 to Suffern is much more likely to get a 6"+ storm than the 95 corridor, based on current models/thinking, but that's not a given either, as the storm could have a more SE track bringing less precip NW of 95 and bringing more snow to 95 to the coast.
 
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I'm light years ahead of that sloth @koleszar , who is using his boxed snowblower as a work table. Sooner or later, one of us will pay the price.
Not to worry about the only thing I plan out meticulously is my business and farm endeavors. Because mother nature tells you when it's time.

Should we get snow, it will be a harried call to one of my guys that we're working on the farm today. Followed by a feverous attempt to learn how to prep and start the beast in the box. A few torn out pages of the instructions written in some language I never wanted to learn any way. Some four letter words shouted, a few tools tossed(there's a bunch of those in the pastures already) a trip to the Exxon for gas and Wahla! All ready to go.
 
Can't stress this enough. Track errors ~4 days out are in the 150 mile range and a track shift of 50 miles could mean the difference between 1-2" of snow then 1" of rain washing it all away vs. 6-10" of snow for the 95 corridor, for example (Philly-Trenton-NB-NYC), meaning we likely won't have a good handle on this for a couple more days.

And like some past storms, even once the track is pretty well nailed down (1-2 days in advance), this is likely to be one of those storms where there will likely be a very steep SE to NW gradient, i.e., it's quite possible we could see something like no snow in AP, 1-2" in Holmdel, 2-4" in Edison, 4-7" in Warren and 8"+ in Hackettstown (where places with less than 8" are likely getting the rest in rain or some sleet); this is just an example, not a forecast.

Also, if you really want some good analysis, watch TWC. They're comparing model runs and analyzing the key variables very nicely right now.
 
Of course. We should be Taking every run “with a grain of salt” 4 or 5 days out
Speaking of salt, expect Murphy to order salt and brining operations to start any minute now for this weekends snowmaggedon. Need to work through the salt budget asap. A little OT for the union workers cant hurt either.

I heard they already closed state offices for Friday and Monday.
 
If we get snow its Globall warming, If we don't get snow its glow ball warming.
No, weather and climate are quite different and people who try to link any individual weather event to climate change simply don't understand that. Doesn't mean there isn't any link at all - it's just that a warming or cooling climate would mean the probability of certain weather events would increase or decrease vs. previous climatological norms.
 
What am I supposed to do. I put the gas can in the garage. I normally plug in the snowblower with the electric start plugged in. I usually fire it up once to make sure it will start. But I'm not feeling the need with that forecast. I'm light years ahead of that sloth @koleszar , who is using his boxed snowblower as a work table. Sooner or later, one of us will pay the price.
Our boxed generator, purchased a year or two after Sandy, has been a very useful table in our garage for over 10 years now, lol.
 
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