OT: Could the snow drought end next weekend (1/7)? Maybe...
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
and this is why I push back on Numbers at times because you can see how he was getting excited over those model runs last night. Snow maps will not mean much if the cold air actually isnt locked in place.
But as we have seen in the last several years, these threads more than 3-4 days out are useless because the accuracy of the models is trash in that range.
So we get media now hyping this storm like we are doing now yet the outcome is totally uncertain....we could get one inch to rain, we could get 6 inches, we could get 3 inches or we could get plain rain
also there is a potential danger in the future with another very wet system middle of next week, the two system combined will likely bring back flooding concerns
Of course I'm "excited" about models showing snow, but I've been very careful to highlight how fragile the setup is and how many things could go "wrong" to give us less snow/more rain (or just less precip) and why snowfall forecasts at this point would be subject to potentially large errors. The threads aren't "useless" IMO, as they alert people to a potentially impactful situation.
In addition, these threads certainly have entertainment value, which is why we have threads about all kinds of crazy stuff on these boards. Also you do a very similar thing by starting your NCAA bubble analysis way before we have enough info to make more than educated guesses (similar to speculating about snowfall with highly incomplete and uncertain info), but they're interesting to speculate about and people enjoy them - some feel the same way about these threads.
+1
Early threads like this one are useless. 3 days out is a good rule of thumb.
Mentioned that one yesterday - it may end up being more impactful for some, given the potential for 2"+ of rain on 1/10, which would melt most/all of any snow we get, plus rivers are already high and the ground is saturated, so all of the rain will run off into streams/rivers, leading to potentially significant flooding and will also lead to backed up storm drains in many locations leading to possible urban flooding.
Don might be the best poster on that board. Did you see my response to him, though? Often people overestimate melting when there's good snowfall intensity rate and many of the pros fall too much in love with Kuchera algorithm which decreases snowfall predictions based on warm column temps or the positive snow depth algorithm, which takes melting/compaction into account. It's really long and have posted similar here before.
Which day next week is this rainstorm likely to be?
Also, is it widespread throughout the state or localized to the north, central, or south?
Is it just for New Jersey? Or is it the entire tri-state of New York, New Jersey PA Connecticut?
It's in my post (1/10). This is a huge widespread storm for much of the US, including most of the eastern 1/3 of the country, where most of the NE US could get 1-3" of liquid equivalent precip, which would be mostly rain here (but could be a front end thump of a few inches of snow first), but probably snow well inland changing to rain. Wtih about 1" of rainfall equivalent falling this weekend and then maybe 1-3" more rain late Tuesday through Wednesday, flooding could be significant to major. If this all comes to fruition - that 2nd storm is a week from now.
Fook, I didn't even think about that. I had one of my routes home closed for over a week due to the last round of flooding. Looks like it just reopened over the weekend.
Thx might change up travel schedule for work then to mon- tues rather than tues-wed
Fingers crossed the bball game on 1/9 won’t be affected
Today's 12Z models (GFS, CMC and UK so far; Euro later) are a bit less snowy than last night's, overall, partly due to less precip falling (weaker storm) and partly due to more rain, at least from 95 to the coast. Still a plowable snow for the 95 corridor and certainly NW of 95 (and especially N of 78), but it might be all rain at the coast and could be mostly rain for 95, with a very steep snowfall gradient from SE to NW as is often the case in these setups.
Tonight's model runs with full incorporation of RAOB data from the pieces of energy all being fully onshore in the western US, should theoretically be more accurate and representative of what we'll see, although we still sometimes see fairly big shifts in the last 24-48 hours before a storm, especially when a 20-30 mile track wobble, which is possible within 24 hours of an event, could lead to some locations having several more or less inches of snow than what will be forecast.
Tonight's model runs with full incorporation of RAOB data from the pieces of energy all being fully onshore in the western US, should theoretically be more accurate and representative of what we'll see, although we still sometimes see fairly big shifts in the last 24-48 hours before a storm, especially when a 20-30 mile track wobble, which is possible within 24 hours of an event, could lead to some locations having several more or less inches of snow than what will be forecast.
Happy to see as an anti-snow guy, but that'll give us two more rain events within the span of a couple of days. Some who live by the brooks in my town really got hammered - one family lost all the Christmas gifts they were hiding for the kids in the basement. The local food pantry got word out and people stepped up.
And the Euro is weaker/warmer with little snow SE of 95 and maybe only an inch or two for the 95 corridor and several inches not far NW of 95. Model mayhem at its finest. As I said elsewhere and here earlier, the Euro and the other models still show a potent (even if less potent right now) winter storm hitting us and we don't even have all the key pieces of energy full onshore and sampled for the model initializations yet. Let's see what tonight brings - and if that looks bad for 95, then we can start with the meltdown for snow lovers.
2-4/3-5" along 95 on every model except the Euro right now, so no idea what you mean here, as those amounts are plowable. If that falls at night, as expected, with decent intensity it will accumulate even on roads, even at 33-34F. But certainly might turn out to not be a plowable snow either. We just don't know. I assume you're rooting for snow for the business...
Weak storm with marginal temps..you know better than to bring up 3-5
This is probably best directed at the milfs in Hillsborough.
A reliable source has told me you've been blacklisted from upcoming weather threads for the foreseeable future.
They'd consider that just a waste of their time.
100%
perfect analogy - I bolded it for emphasis.
hey bac - we dont need your constant reminders that projections at this point are subject to change.
WE GET IT.
well understood.
the fact that there are various models with significantly different outcomes make that quite clear.
its still interesting to talk about it.
....just like NCAA bubble analyses done prior to early March can be interesting.
Last edited:
Holy mother of god. Every damn thread. Don’t read them. Others enjoy it! They know there is uncertainty. Do something else with your life.
who is planning around these projections? Its Wednesday and this is a Sat/ Sun storm
right now the take away is: hey, there is a storm coming this weekend, some of the models have some snow, some have it as all rain. best to pay some attention to it as this time.
I cant imagine a single person reading this thread is doing anything other than paying some attention to this storm at this point.
why dont you give your follow members of this board some credit? we dont need your protection. we get it.
Last edited:
