+1
Good example. Some people just keep wishcasting again and again and again and then crow about finally getting one right. We shall see if the broken clock is right about this one.
OT: Could the snow drought end next weekend (1/7)? Maybe...
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Good example. Some people just keep wishcasting again and again and again and then crow about finally getting one right. We shall see if the broken clock is right about this one.
Im. ALMOST BUT NOT DEFINITIVELY saying that for our area they shove us in the 3-6 inch thing where we will likely see 2 if not..seen these type of storms
And ive already seen tv snow maps of 3-inches for central jersey
says the guy who has posted literally HUNDREDS of posts trolling #s.
but yeah, when someone like #s spends the time to give fellow posters good/ interesting information it IS annoying when someone like you makes the same post day-after-day year-after-year trolling him.
his posts add a lot of value to this board and his posts are enjoyed by many for their entertainment and informational value
conversely, your constant unending trolling of him is ridiculous, pathetic and sad.
you have posted HUNDREDS (if not thousands) of posts trolling him on this one topic alone over MANY YEARS -
and you say that someone else is "tweaked".
you couldnt be more "tweaked"
youve been obsessed for YEARS.
youre the very definition of "tweaked" LOL
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So, the 18Z GFS is stronger, colder and snowier with 4-8" for the 95 corridor and more NW, but decreasing quickly to 1" or less at the coast. This is the first model run that is incorporating all of the RAOB data from the main energy for the storm that has moved inland from the west coast, so it should be more accurate. Will be interesting to see the 18Z Euro and tonight's 0Z suite.
At the risk of redundancy, this is a very fragile setup and solutions are still on the table from mostly snow to mostly rain for the 95 corridor, since it will only take some minor track/strength fluctuations to drive very different solutions. The NWS will be issuing their maps at 4 am and folks like Lee Goldberg have already issued preliminary maps: he has the 3" line from about Hillsborough to Westfield to Central Park with 3-6" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of that line to the 1" line which is from about Bordentown to Keansburg to Jones Beach.
Edit: the 18Z Euro came in a bit colder/snowier than 12Z, with a general 2-4" from Trenton to NYC and 4-8" not too far NW of 95 and <1" not too far SE of 95 - a very steep gradient, which is expected.
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Who's calling for 6"? Certainly not me nor the NWS nor most other sources I've seen. Saying 6" is possible is not "calling" for it and yes, 6" is possible (even if unlikely) for the 95 corridor. I wouldn't even hazard a guess yet on snowfall accumulations as uncertainty is too high.
Your analogy with regards to the NCAA tournament spot on. Seems like it’s perfectly OK for him to speculate about something that is far from determined, but you are not.
I guess he is just a basketball weenie.
Or just a plain old weenie
These threads are great !! It’s like trying to figure out the emotional swings of 12 year old girls.
Rutgers psych department should use these as case studies !
And Hell yeah …. I want a little snow Saturday night !!
Rutgers psych department should use these as case studies !
And Hell yeah …. I want a little snow Saturday night !!
Well, the first two of tonight's 0Z global models just came in with the GFS showing an incredible snowfall gradient from SE to NW, i.e., from an inch or two (at the end of the storm) ~15-20 miles SE of me to about 8-10" at my house in Metuchen to over a foot 5 miles north of me. Insane. Same thing for NYC with maybe 5-6" at JFK on the ocean to over a foot in Yonkers. And the CMC shows a similar very steep gradient, but a bit more rain/less snow for 95 than the GFS, with about 2-5" from Trenton to NYC and nada only 10-15 miles SE of that line and 6"+ 10+ miles NW of that line. Note that the NAM and RGEM also came in, but they're at the end of their range when it's precipitating and both are regional/mesoscale models that are not taken seriously past about 48-60 hours
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59874-two-moderate-to-high-impact-events-nyc-subforum-weekend-jan-6-7-and-mid-week-jan-9-10-total-water-equiv-by-00z11-general-2-possibly-6-includes-snow-ice-mainly-
interior-river-flooding-potential-increases-jan-10-and-beyond-damaging-wind/page/38/#comment-7115732
The 0Z UK just came out and it's weaker and wetter than the GFS/CMC with only about 1/2-3/4" of total precip (water equivalent or QPF) with maybe only 1-2" of snow along 95 from Trenton to NYC and nada just 10 miles SE of that line, but 4-7" just 20-25 miles NW of that line and especially N of 78. Euro up in about an hour.
And the last global model, the 0Z Euro, just came in and it's a bit warmer/wetter than 18Z was, as it's down to 1-2" for Trenton-NYC, but 3-5" is just 10-15 miles NW, while <1/2" is just 10-15 miles SE.
While I wouldn't expect any of these to verify per se it clearly shows the difficulty of making a forecast for this storm, as the gradients are so steep that it only takes a small track shift to lead to a 1-2F temperature difference for a particular area, which can change snowfall amounts from 1-2 inches to 6" or more. Not going to post the maps, as they're going to change with successive runs, plus they're easily available elsewhere, like the link above. Will be interesting to see what the NWS predicts at 4 am. Glad that's not my job, lol.
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im saying a 6 inch call that ends up 0 is like predicting a one seed that does not even make the tourney
I'd say making a 6 inch call and getting nothing is more like calling a team a 7 or 8 seed and not making it. But this is all a moot point as no one is making a 6 inch call....
the kuchera map is much less impressive, after reading your post I thought there was some big shift but actually reading the room over there it doesnt look like many are enthused
I agree with the concept, but there have been more than a few 6+" calls over the years 3-4 days out that end up being 0 or close to it, so I'd say that's a lot more frequent than predicting a 1-seed in early February that doesn't make the tourney, so I'd say it's more like predicting a 6/7 seed that doesn't make it, which I'm sure happens on occasion.
I thought the same thing.
Looks like #s is using the 10:1 ratio..which most pros think is way too high and the storm will be more like a 6:1 ratio. So the amounts mentioned by #s should be about cut in half to see what the model really did show...much more like 2-4 where he lives, a bit more just north and around 8-10 well northwest.
But certainly, as #s clearly illustrated in his post, there should be a very sharp cutoff the farther south you go.
I think too many were expecting 6" or more along 95, which has always been possible (and still is), but unlikely. I'd say a 1-3" or maybe 2-4" call for Trenton to NB to NYC is reasonable right now, which is right about where Lee Goldberg is.
Most pros don't even understand how flawed the Kuchera algorithm is, so as I said on American, I prefer to use the 10:1 maps, since they explicitly tell you how much QPF and snow is falling, whereas Kuchera only tells you snow depth and not QPF. I prefer to make my own adjustments down or up from 10:1 based on other variables and right now we don't know those other variables yet, especially intensity early on to start the accumulation. Odds are ratios will be lower than 10:1, but not as bad as Kuchera would calculate. I've gone into this at great length in the past over there and 33andrain and gotten props from several pros for my analysis, which is not really meteorology-based, but really eng'g/physical chemistry based.
He also trolls on the weather boards and periodically gets banned because they don't tolerate that crap there; he's protected here, however, just like T and we all know why that is. He even just trolled me on the weather board. The sad part is he's fairly knowledgeable about weather and could add a lot to the discussions, but he often chooses not to. I respond far less to their crap than I used to - just not worth it. Surprised the cabal hasn't come to their rescue yet, lol.
These clowns take the show on the road to other boards? C'mon guys...that's making it personal.
To be clear, he rarely trolls me on the weather boards (but just did), but he regularly trolls the hard core snow lovers and they complain and he gets banned or 5-posted (where they limit your posts per day).
this is a classic north of 78/80 storm. i think if you're south of 78 it will be a nuisance.
That would be my very amateurist call right now haha
That would be my very amateurist call right now haha
Kind of, although I'd say north of 78 and NW of 287 from 78 to Suffern and then N of 287 in NY state for significant (4-8") snowfall, with the 95 corridor looking like a 1-3" event and the coast looking like almost all rain, but given the sensitivity of the setup to minor changes, there could still easily be a substantial shift in expected snowfall (in either direction). I'm thinking 2" at my house right now, but <1" and 6"+ are not off the table.
I dont think I-95 is even gonna get 1-3. We'll see..the fun of tracking, i guess. haha.
Bro - not mad, baffled (that someone would behave like you do)
You’ve been at this for YEARS to the tune of HUNDREDS of posts. You can’t deny it. It’s all in here
And #s just said you troll about this across several weather boards and get banned for it ?!? 😆🤣😭
OMFG bro
getting banned for constant trolling posters on weather - related message boards?!? That is seriously one of the most pathetically-nerdy-live-in-moms-basement things I’ve ever heard. 😂 😭 😃
Bro - you’re pathologically tweaked
Take the L and go home. This is really, really embarrassing for you.
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Philadelphia stations have really backed off the snow. Ocean County and South into Delaware will see no snow. Philadelphia 95 corridor will see a mix to start then shift to all rain. The biggest changes have been a much earlier start. Now starting around noon. And the ocean wind influence going deep into SE PA. Looks to be just a wet event for most. Even Allentown could change to rain.
Seems like we won’t be getting much of anything in the Mercer area. I’m hoping we can get a good snow game in the NFL this Sunday at least. Love watching football in the snow. Maybe the Giants game will have some snow but it’s 4:25 on Sunday it may be done by then
This is like a gathering of the well-known, widely-disliked RU message board trolls.
Correction: admittedly bac contributes a ton to this board (aside from his weather-related trolling)
But proudNJ - when you make a non troll-like post to this board it will be your first
Not hundreds..irs literally THOUSANDS
I admire the honesty
the first step in rehabilitation is admitting you have a problem .
You’re on your way bac
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It's fun to mock adult snow-lovers. Something must have happened in their childhoods to desperately yearn for the cold, powdery stuff. Hope they have good therapists!
It's more fun to mock internet bullies. Something must of happened in THEIR childhoods, like getting their asses physically kicked on a daily basis to desperately yearn for the day where they could flex their internet muscles to bully others. Hope THEY have good therapists! 😁
Nothing wrong w loving snow. I still to this day love it. I also love tacos, tequila and peanut butter. so theres that
