OT: Could the snow drought end next weekend (1/7)? Maybe...
- Thread starter RU848789
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Only therapy needed is snorkel deep doses of the cold (dry) powdery stuff. Take as often as necessary.
Unfortunately, pharmacy is on a long holiday break this year ... virtually everywhere, it seems.
Todays trends give hope back to seeing significant snow for many
Just a tough forecast
Just a tough forecast
Just to illustrate how difficult this forecast is, here's the Euro output from this morning's 6Z run. The Euro is still considered the best global model and look at how steep that snowfall gradient is from SE to NW due to warm air causing a changeover to rain (and maybe some sleet). For example, Middlesex County goes from <1" to about 6" from the far SE corner to the far NW corner, a distance of just ~20 miles. I'm not saying the Euro map is "right" but it just illustrates the challenge forecasters are having with this one.
Ok, the 12Z models are going to make this forecast even more difficult, as both the GFS and the Euro have come in a fair amount colder and snowier vs. last night's 0Z runs, due to interactions between the kicker vortmax (vorticity maximum) and our primary low, as the kicker has moved much closer to our initial, primary low leading to some phasing, creating a more dynamic system that pulls in more cold air with heavier precip, leading to significant snowfall for the 95 corridor (and major snowfall NW of there) - while the CMC (GDPS) and UK remain weaker and warmer with not much snow for the 95 corridor with significant snows only well NW of 95 and N of 78. The UK/CMC don't show this. See the tweet below for more on this phasing.
Below are the 4 major global models (and yes I'm using the 10:1 snow:liquid ratio maps because they tell us how much precip is falling, but actual ratios may only be 6-8:1 near 95); not including the regional NAM/RGEM yet, since they're still near the end of their useful range. I wouldn't be able to forecast with these as inputs, lol; of course, they have a plethora of other tools/inputs, but I'm sure this is going to be a tough one to get right without something approaching a model consensus and we're nowhere near that. By the way, the little dot in the Edison area is, indeed Edison and the four models predict 6.3", 5.7", 1.0" and 0.8" for Edison and there are similar variations throughout the 95 corridor. Easy forecast, lol.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full
post less, listen more...the maps are useless...its way too warm and backend snows especially for central new jersey are not going to happen
I think you are making this more difficult than it actually isOk, the 12Z models are going to make this forecast even more difficult, as both the GFS and the Euro have come in a fair amount colder and snowier vs. last night's 0Z runs, due to interactions between the kicker vortmax (vorticity maximum) and our primary low, as the kicker has moved much closer to our initial, primary low leading to some phasing, creating a more dynamic system that pulls in more cold air with heavier precip, leading to significant snowfall for the 95 corridor (and major snowfall NW of there) - while the CMC (GDPS) and UK remain weaker and warmer with not much snow for the 95 corridor with significant snows only well NW of 95 and N of 78. The UK/CMC don't show this. See the tweet below for more on this phasing.
Below are the 4 major global models (and yes I'm using the 10:1 snow:liquid ratio maps because they tell us how much precip is falling, but actual ratios may only be 6-8:1 near 95); not including the regional NAM/RGEM yet, since they're still near the end of their useful range. I wouldn't be able to forecast with these as inputs, lol; of course, they have a plethora of other tools/inputs, but I'm sure this is going to be a tough one to get right without something approaching a model consensus and we're nowhere near that. By the way, the little dot in the Edison area is, indeed Edison and the four models predict 6.3", 5.7", 1.0" and 0.8" for Edison and there are similar variations throughout the 95 corridor. Easy forecast, lol.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full
Does bac pay you to walk around and kiss his ass on demand, or do you do it for free?
Would appreciate it if you don’t tell me what to do. Thanks.
I know the maps are useless. Hence why I said model trends.
I mean, just the amount of calls that are so different from pro meteorologists signify how difficult this forecast is
"Pro meteorologists" = LOL!
Collectively, they are rarely correct. Models are awful and so are their forecasts. However, they need ratings and to make money, so they pretend to know what is going to happen. That's how Big Weather rolls.
Bac telling someone to post less and listen more just won the thread, the internet and the entire universe.
Agree meteorologists are very rarely correct..they also very rarely have forecasts that differ so much from others…as is this storm right now. Hence the difficulty.
I don’t know why this is so hard to accept……
Perhaps, as it's always hard to get snow around here without a good cold air source, which we knew days ago, as I've noted, but we've also had many marginal systems bring significant snows to the 95 corridor in the past, and one can't simply ignore models showing snowy solutions, like the latest GFS and Euro. Also, John Homenuk might not have made that post if he had seen the 12Z Euro backing up the phasing idea from the GFS.
???? thats not a call, those are snow clown maps that basically every red tagged met on that site have said are worthless in analyzing this system. .what are you talking about...show me the different met calls right now
there may be areas that end up doing well with this sunday wrapup east of the hudson and north and west but very rare for that to happen in central jersey especially with the warm tongue
even with the snowier solutions which have a ridiculous gradient, you have basically every red tag met telling you to discount snow maps yet you keep clinging to them
I’ve said a bunch of times…I agree with you on the clown maps…
You’re looking at his wrong post, though. He posted calls from several mets, including Goldberg, NWS, DT (which you commented on), etc.
You rarely see calls from a trace to 6 inches in one specific area
What makes you think he only stops at kissing his ass?
for one please do not pay attention to DT
NWS and Goldberg....which actually are not that far off....1-3 slushy inches for these parts would seem like an appropriate call right now....nws has an inch right now which i thought was low and it will be bumped up...i dont see such grand disagreement
