OT: Could the snow drought end next weekend (1/7)? Maybe...
- Thread starter RU848789
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We have been NAM-ed! Holy crap look at this, as the NAM went colder on the first wave and full phase after the 2nd wave caught up on Sunday, with most of this snow on the map falling after about noon on Sunday. Is it realistic and will it verify? Likely not, but it's catching on to the same idea seen in the Euro and GFS, just on steroids. Anyone who dismisses these runs is nuts at this point - we may still only get a slushy 1-3" along 95 (especially SW of Trenton), but the mets can't ignore the Euro, GFS and the NAM, IMO.Ok, the 12Z models are going to make this forecast even more difficult, as both the GFS and the Euro have come in a fair amount colder and snowier vs. last night's 0Z runs, due to interactions between the kicker vortmax (vorticity maximum) and our primary low, as the kicker has moved much closer to our initial, primary low leading to some phasing, creating a more dynamic system that pulls in more cold air with heavier precip, leading to significant snowfall for the 95 corridor (and major snowfall NW of there) - while the CMC (GDPS) and UK remain weaker and warmer with not much snow for the 95 corridor with significant snows only well NW of 95 and N of 78. The UK/CMC don't show this. See the tweet below for more on this phasing.
Below are the 4 major global models (and yes I'm using the 10:1 snow:liquid ratio maps because they tell us how much precip is falling, but actual ratios may only be 6-8:1 near 95); not including the regional NAM/RGEM yet, since they're still near the end of their useful range. I wouldn't be able to forecast with these as inputs, lol; of course, they have a plethora of other tools/inputs, but I'm sure this is going to be a tough one to get right without something approaching a model consensus and we're nowhere near that. By the way, the little dot in the Edison area is, indeed Edison and the four models predict 6.3", 5.7", 1.0" and 0.8" for Edison and there are similar variations throughout the 95 corridor. Easy forecast, lol.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full
I recall saying no blizzard, and my first call would be very little snow south of I95. Have always said things could change.
The thread is becoming comical. The wishcasting has reached all-time highs! I guess this is what happens after a year of no snow.
We have been NAM-ed! Holy crap look at this, as the NAM went colder on the first wave and full phase after the 2nd wave caught up on Sunday, with most of this snow on the map falling after about noon on Sunday. Is it realistic and will it verify? Likely not, but it's catching on to the same idea seen in the Euro and GFS, just on steroids. Anyone who dismisses these runs is nuts at this point - we may still only get a slushy 1-3" along 95 (especially SW of Trenton), but the mets can't ignore the Euro, GFS and the NAM, IMO.
It’s the long range nam so yes..most Mets will ignore. But yes, there certainly is a trend this afternoon..which the GFS was first to pick up on.
Tonight’s runs will be very important to the forecast
You’re right. Maybe we should ban meteorologists and just let everyone be surprised.
only one post I’ve seen on here was a “wish cast” which was made on Monday.
See below.
Lee Goldberg disagrees with these maps,at least for NYC,saying that they'll get a slushy 1-3 at most.
Can you really go with the NAM right now? I'm uneducated and even I would be skeptical. However, when I was out walking recently, the squirrels seemed more active and fatter, so we're probably getting more snow. That's my NAM.We have been NAM-ed! Holy crap look at this, as the NAM went colder on the first wave and full phase after the 2nd wave caught up on Sunday, with most of this snow on the map falling after about noon on Sunday. Is it realistic and will it verify? Likely not, but it's catching on to the same idea seen in the Euro and GFS, just on steroids. Anyone who dismisses these runs is nuts at this point - we may still only get a slushy 1-3" along 95 (especially SW of Trenton), but the mets can't ignore the Euro, GFS and the NAM, IMO.
The NWS has issued winter storm watches for a general 4-8" of snow for the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic and NW Bergen, plus the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee, but the discussions from the Philly and NYC offices are somewhat at odds, with the Philly office focusing on the warmth of the ocean and easterly winds keeping accumulations <1" for 95 from Philly to Woodbridge and SE of there, while the NYC office is saying things are trending cooler and now have 2-3" for places along 95 in NENJ (Union/Hudson) and NYC.
I think they're all scrambling, so it's not worth focusing on their discussions and their maps have inconsistencies with each other - just look at the boundaries along Morris/Somerset where the Philly office has <1", while magically across the border into Essex/Union, the NWS-NYC has 3-6" of snow. Also, the NWS-NYC map has 8-12" amounts for their northern counties, but the watches only mention 5-8" so I think they have some work to do to get their forecast straight.
I think they're all scrambling, so it's not worth focusing on their discussions and their maps have inconsistencies with each other - just look at the boundaries along Morris/Somerset where the Philly office has <1", while magically across the border into Essex/Union, the NWS-NYC has 3-6" of snow. Also, the NWS-NYC map has 8-12" amounts for their northern counties, but the watches only mention 5-8" so I think they have some work to do to get their forecast straight.
No and I said I wouldn't, but it adds more credence to the phasing idea seen for the Euro and GFS and the idea of a more dynamic, colder, snowier solution, even for 95. It's not impossible that the NAM is correct, but it's not the way to bet.
I am not a fan of snow, but I won't kill others for liking it. What can be a pain in the a$$ for me, represents recreation to many others and supports businesses during the winter.
My unscientific bet based on stuff posted here and American Weather: split the difference or whatever, 3-6 inches for the 95 corridor and me (No. Plfd.)
My kid is supposed to fly back to college on Sunday at 10 am. Do I need tog eat her out Saturday. That’s all I care about
I think by tomorrow there will be a better sense of timing. If this hits as predicted (Saturday night into Sunday) even if it ends early Sunday, cascading delays could impact your daughter's flight.
My friends and I are hoping for snow both west and north for a boost for ski areas
If it is way less where we live, that works
Mt Holly Disco
Summary: A coastal winter storm is forecast to affect portions of
the region this weekend, beginning Saturday, peaking Saturday night
before exiting on Sunday. Widespread precipitation is forecast
across the entire area, with wintry precipitation mainly confined to
locales situated northwest of the I-95 corridor. Details follow
below:
Synoptic Overview: A closed mid-level low near Texas on Friday will
open into a shortwave trough and deamplify as it ejects northeast
toward the Great Lakes. It is forecast to cross our region Saturday
night into Sunday while strengthening as the sub-tropical jet will
be centered across the Southeast, placing the northern-most areas of
the forecast area in the left exit region of the jet as it shifts
offshore. At the surface Friday night, high pressure will be
shifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast giving way to a surface low
developing over the northern Gulf Coast which will lift
northeastward toward the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon. The 12Z
guidance suite today, generally keeps the center of the low roughly
50-100 miles to the east of the NJ/DE coastline, paralleling
the shoreline Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the low will
begin to pull away from the area up towards the New England
coast, while deepening into a sub 990mb low as it does so.
However, the heaviest of precipitation will be out of the region
by this time.
Coastal System Forecast and Impacts...
Timing: Precipitation will begin to spread into the region late
Saturday morning into the afternoon from southwest to northeast.
Peak intensity is currently forecast to occur early Saturday evening
into early Sunday morning (roughly 4PM Saturday through 4AM Sunday).
Guidance has trended in the way that precipitation will not be in a
rush to leave during the day Sunday, as wrap around moisture
associated with an inverted trough back into Pennsylvania,
suggests that precip will remain Sunday afternoon. Nonetheless,
the system and all precipitation will exit by Sunday evening.
Snow/Wintry Precipitation: Basis the latest suite of forecast
guidance today, our confidence is increasing that an impactful snow
event across the majority of the forecast area is decreasing. The
exception is across the higher terrain, especially the areas north
and west of the Fall Line where the weather type will remain all or
mostly all snow. With the orientation and track of the surface low,
strong easterly surface flow will be streaming off the relative
`warm` 47-50 degree ocean waters of the Atlantic across the Coastal
Plain through much of Saturday night into Sunday morning. In
addition, guidance today also suggests that the 850mb surface low
will now track further inland than previously indicated. This will
cause the 0 degree C isotherm to track further north potentially
even up into the higher elevated areas as indicated in the 12Z
GFS/NAM guidance. Don`t totally buy this solution at this point, but
is certainly possible basis ongoing trends.
As a result, the forecast is for snow at the onset of the system for
almost all interior locations albeit may be brief, with all rain
confined to the Delmarva and coastal locations of central and
southern NJ. Snow will gradually switch over to a mixture of
snow/sleet and eventually to all rain from south to north later
Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night as the mixing line surges
north as temps warm into the overnight hours. Up in the Lehigh
Valley, snow will likely win on out for the first half of the event,
but the warm tongue aloft now appears to make its way up into these
areas. This should cause a period of some mixing with sleet/rain
which will hinder snowfall amounts in these areas. For the Poconos
and extreme N NJ, precip type looks to remain all snow. With this in
mind, our thinking with regard to snowfall forecast is for a trace
of snowfall across a majority of the Coastal Plain and along the
immediate I-95 corridor, including the city of Philadelphia. In
between the I-78 and I-95 corridors, expect up 2 inches of snow.
Once into the Lehigh Valley and across portions of Warren and Morris
County, snow amounts further increase up to 2-5 inches. It is not
until reaching the Fall Line where snowfall amounts increase above
warning level criteria. Thus, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued
for Carbon, Monroe and Northampton counties in PA and Sussex, Warren
and Morris Counties in NJ for Saturday morning into Sunday
afternoon. Confidence has increased in these areas for warning
criteria, especially in the higher terrain areas which will
certainly meet valid watch issuance.
Rain: Along the I-95 corridor and points south and east, the
rainfall forecast has been increased slightly with rainfall amounts
generally ranging between 0.75-1.25 inches. Localized higher amounts
are also possible especially along the coastal areas of New Jersey
where coastal convergence is maximized. Flooding is not much of a
concern this go around, but still cannot rule out some minor
flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas.
Winds: East-northeast winds will increase into Saturday afternoon
and evening to around 15-25 mph inland and to around 25-35 mph near
the immediate coast. Wind gusts up to 40mph are also possible across
the coast of Monmouth/Ocean counties on the north side of the low
pressure system. Winds will shift northeast then north overnight and
diminish on the back side of the low on Sunday morning. No
significant impacts are anticipated due to winds, however the soggy
ground and gusty winds may combine to result in a few downed trees
or isolated power outages near the coast.
Summary: A coastal winter storm is forecast to affect portions of
the region this weekend, beginning Saturday, peaking Saturday night
before exiting on Sunday. Widespread precipitation is forecast
across the entire area, with wintry precipitation mainly confined to
locales situated northwest of the I-95 corridor. Details follow
below:
Synoptic Overview: A closed mid-level low near Texas on Friday will
open into a shortwave trough and deamplify as it ejects northeast
toward the Great Lakes. It is forecast to cross our region Saturday
night into Sunday while strengthening as the sub-tropical jet will
be centered across the Southeast, placing the northern-most areas of
the forecast area in the left exit region of the jet as it shifts
offshore. At the surface Friday night, high pressure will be
shifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast giving way to a surface low
developing over the northern Gulf Coast which will lift
northeastward toward the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon. The 12Z
guidance suite today, generally keeps the center of the low roughly
50-100 miles to the east of the NJ/DE coastline, paralleling
the shoreline Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the low will
begin to pull away from the area up towards the New England
coast, while deepening into a sub 990mb low as it does so.
However, the heaviest of precipitation will be out of the region
by this time.
Coastal System Forecast and Impacts...
Timing: Precipitation will begin to spread into the region late
Saturday morning into the afternoon from southwest to northeast.
Peak intensity is currently forecast to occur early Saturday evening
into early Sunday morning (roughly 4PM Saturday through 4AM Sunday).
Guidance has trended in the way that precipitation will not be in a
rush to leave during the day Sunday, as wrap around moisture
associated with an inverted trough back into Pennsylvania,
suggests that precip will remain Sunday afternoon. Nonetheless,
the system and all precipitation will exit by Sunday evening.
Snow/Wintry Precipitation: Basis the latest suite of forecast
guidance today, our confidence is increasing that an impactful snow
event across the majority of the forecast area is decreasing. The
exception is across the higher terrain, especially the areas north
and west of the Fall Line where the weather type will remain all or
mostly all snow. With the orientation and track of the surface low,
strong easterly surface flow will be streaming off the relative
`warm` 47-50 degree ocean waters of the Atlantic across the Coastal
Plain through much of Saturday night into Sunday morning. In
addition, guidance today also suggests that the 850mb surface low
will now track further inland than previously indicated. This will
cause the 0 degree C isotherm to track further north potentially
even up into the higher elevated areas as indicated in the 12Z
GFS/NAM guidance. Don`t totally buy this solution at this point, but
is certainly possible basis ongoing trends.
As a result, the forecast is for snow at the onset of the system for
almost all interior locations albeit may be brief, with all rain
confined to the Delmarva and coastal locations of central and
southern NJ. Snow will gradually switch over to a mixture of
snow/sleet and eventually to all rain from south to north later
Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night as the mixing line surges
north as temps warm into the overnight hours. Up in the Lehigh
Valley, snow will likely win on out for the first half of the event,
but the warm tongue aloft now appears to make its way up into these
areas. This should cause a period of some mixing with sleet/rain
which will hinder snowfall amounts in these areas. For the Poconos
and extreme N NJ, precip type looks to remain all snow. With this in
mind, our thinking with regard to snowfall forecast is for a trace
of snowfall across a majority of the Coastal Plain and along the
immediate I-95 corridor, including the city of Philadelphia. In
between the I-78 and I-95 corridors, expect up 2 inches of snow.
Once into the Lehigh Valley and across portions of Warren and Morris
County, snow amounts further increase up to 2-5 inches. It is not
until reaching the Fall Line where snowfall amounts increase above
warning level criteria. Thus, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued
for Carbon, Monroe and Northampton counties in PA and Sussex, Warren
and Morris Counties in NJ for Saturday morning into Sunday
afternoon. Confidence has increased in these areas for warning
criteria, especially in the higher terrain areas which will
certainly meet valid watch issuance.
Rain: Along the I-95 corridor and points south and east, the
rainfall forecast has been increased slightly with rainfall amounts
generally ranging between 0.75-1.25 inches. Localized higher amounts
are also possible especially along the coastal areas of New Jersey
where coastal convergence is maximized. Flooding is not much of a
concern this go around, but still cannot rule out some minor
flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas.
Winds: East-northeast winds will increase into Saturday afternoon
and evening to around 15-25 mph inland and to around 25-35 mph near
the immediate coast. Wind gusts up to 40mph are also possible across
the coast of Monmouth/Ocean counties on the north side of the low
pressure system. Winds will shift northeast then north overnight and
diminish on the back side of the low on Sunday morning. No
significant impacts are anticipated due to winds, however the soggy
ground and gusty winds may combine to result in a few downed trees
or isolated power outages near the coast.
and yet right now that is what Mt Holly is forecasting for over half of NJ
Bac's first call 48 hours out is 1-3 IMBY southern somerset to new brunswick northern half of middlesex, southern union to Newark
coating to 2 inches coastal NJ to nyc, trenton...could be no accumulations right along the coast and southern nj to philly
2-5 north of somerville 78, morris, hunterdon,,,higher amounts furthest north
4-8 NW NJ, the usual hotspots in NJ but could be less if mixing or warm tongue reaches
coating to 2 inches coastal NJ to nyc, trenton...could be no accumulations right along the coast and southern nj to philly
2-5 north of somerville 78, morris, hunterdon,,,higher amounts furthest north
4-8 NW NJ, the usual hotspots in NJ but could be less if mixing or warm tongue reaches
This may sound surprising, but I have no idea what to tell you, as the model mayhem is off the charts and the NWS offices can't get their shit together. Odds are pretty high that the precip will be mostly over at EWR (assuming that's your airport) by sunrise and if it's just a few sloppy inches, there should be no issue on Sunday; however, if some of the more aggressive models verify, it could be more of a mess on Sunday morning, as snow could still be falling then. I usually subscribe to the theory of avoiding even low probability crappy situations, so if the day doesn't matter, I'd lean towards taking the zero risk day of Saturday. Good luck.
He did not say "at most" 1-3". He's forecasting 1-3", but mentioned how that could easily go up to 4-6" if intensity increases leading to dynamic cooling and a flip from rain to snow overnight on Saturday.
I’m coping just fine lol. You said Monday the storm would go northwest of us and be all rain.
That was the only wishcast on this thread.
Solid call. I can’t help ya if you think there the same call you made on Monday
Rain is good.
At least here. If it snows up your way and make big bucks, I'm fine with that
