OT: Could the snow drought end next weekend (1/7)? Maybe...
- Thread starter RU848789
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But seriously in addition to the half inch plus of liquid from this system. Next Tuesday models are centering on a big rainstorm that potentially could be measured in inches. With the already soaked conditions from Saturday night, FLOODING concerns are large. Be advised in advance. There is a Rutgers- Rutgers- Indiana hoops game that night
Mocking snow posts is not internet bullying. Saying that a snow lover should harm themselves and think about suicide.....that's internet bullying (and sadly, it seems to be happening more and more to our young people).
This type of banter is fun and healthy for all involved! :)
There is loving snow and then loving snow so much someone posts misleading information and wishcasting over and over and over again.
As long as no bad weather impacts 1/10! That looks to be BTC D-Day my crypto friend.
He didn’t say all at once, but I’m sure a chef somewhere is doing something with tequila and PB.
As one might expect with such a volatile setup and such sharp gradients from mostly rain to mostly snow over maybe 25-40 miles from SE to NW, forecasts are all over the map, especially for the 95 corridor, as per the maps below. The NWS and many other sources are quite pessimistic for snowfall along 95 with <1" forecast, while Lee Goldberg and DT/WxRisk, for example are a bit more bullish with 1-3"/2-4" respectively. The NWS has nada SE of 95 to the coast, while Channel 7 has up to 1" for that area and DT has about 1-2" (all the way down the Delaware River area through Philly).
For folks between 78 and 80 (and W of 287) the NWS has a general 2-4"/3-6" forecast (due to mixing with sleet and/or rain at times), while the others have 3-6" or more and pretty much all of them have 4-8" NW of 80/287 and N of 287 in NY State, where mixing risk is lowest - and up to 10" is possible for these areas, especially for the Poconos, Sussex, NW Passaic and the mid-Hudson Valley. Given the trend over the past 24-36 hours for a warmer/wetter storm, given a more northerly low track up the coast (bringing more easterly flow off the still fairly warm ~45F ocean), it's not surprising that this is looking, more wet than white for the 95 corridor.
We're still almost 60 hours away from the start of the storm, so fairly significant changes are still possible, as we've seen in the past for setups like this. For example, the 6Z models have anywhere from nada to 1-3" for the 95 corridor, so bust potential is high both on the high end and low end of snowfall forecasts. I'm still going with 2" for my house, but if trends continue, I'm afraid nada might be the outcome. It is what it is. The good news is that a weaker storm means high winds/power outages and coastal flooding are unlikely with this storm.
One more thing, which needs to be mentioned again. The models are all showing 1.5-3" of rain for the Tues/Weds storm, which could lead to significant flooding, given ~1" of rain (or rain equivalent as snow, which will melt with next week's rain) falling with the weekend's storm and rivers already being close to full and the ground being saturated. The last graphic shows the total pecip falling from now through next week's storm and it ain't pretty.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
For folks between 78 and 80 (and W of 287) the NWS has a general 2-4"/3-6" forecast (due to mixing with sleet and/or rain at times), while the others have 3-6" or more and pretty much all of them have 4-8" NW of 80/287 and N of 287 in NY State, where mixing risk is lowest - and up to 10" is possible for these areas, especially for the Poconos, Sussex, NW Passaic and the mid-Hudson Valley. Given the trend over the past 24-36 hours for a warmer/wetter storm, given a more northerly low track up the coast (bringing more easterly flow off the still fairly warm ~45F ocean), it's not surprising that this is looking, more wet than white for the 95 corridor.
We're still almost 60 hours away from the start of the storm, so fairly significant changes are still possible, as we've seen in the past for setups like this. For example, the 6Z models have anywhere from nada to 1-3" for the 95 corridor, so bust potential is high both on the high end and low end of snowfall forecasts. I'm still going with 2" for my house, but if trends continue, I'm afraid nada might be the outcome. It is what it is. The good news is that a weaker storm means high winds/power outages and coastal flooding are unlikely with this storm.
One more thing, which needs to be mentioned again. The models are all showing 1.5-3" of rain for the Tues/Weds storm, which could lead to significant flooding, given ~1" of rain (or rain equivalent as snow, which will melt with next week's rain) falling with the weekend's storm and rivers already being close to full and the ground being saturated. The last graphic shows the total pecip falling from now through next week's storm and it ain't pretty.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
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I’m gonna miss out on the snow by hours.
Flying back home Saturday morning, prob with a hangover
So I should start talking to my manager today about the big rain on Tuesday.
Start laying the groundwork for "Sorry I'm working from home today....the rain....."?
As one might expect with such a volatile setup and such sharp gradients from mostly rain to mostly snow over maybe 25-40 miles from SE to NW, forecasts are all over the map, especially for the 95 corridor, as per the maps below. The NWS and many other sources are quite pessimistic for snowfall along 95 with <1" forecast, while Lee Goldberg and DT/WxRisk, for example are a bit more bullish with 1-3"/2-4" respectively. The NWS has nada SE of 95 to the coast, while Channel 7 has up to 1" for that area and DT has about 1-2" (all the way down the Delaware River area through Philly).
For folks between 78 and 80 (and W of 287) the NWS has a general 2-4"/3-6" forecast (due to mixing with sleet and/or rain at times), while the others have 3-6" or more and pretty much all of them have 4-8" NW of 80/287 and N of 287 in NY State, where mixing risk is lowest - and up to 10" is possible for these areas, especially for the Poconos, Sussex, NW Passaic and the mid-Hudson Valley. Given the trend over the past 24-36 hours for a warmer/wetter storm, given a more northerly low track up the coast (bringing more easterly flow off the still fairly warm ~45F ocean), it's not surprising that this is looking, more wet than white for the 95 corridor.
We're still almost 60 hours away from the start of the storm, so fairly significant changes are still possible, as we've seen in the past for setups like this. For example, the 6Z models have anywhere from nada to 1-3" for the 95 corridor, so bust potential is high both on the high end and low end of snowfall forecasts. I'm still going with 2" for my house, but if trends continue, I'm afraid nada might be the outcome. It is what it is. The good news is that a weaker storm means high winds/power outages and coastal flooding are unlikely with this storm.
One more thing, which needs to be mentioned again. The models are all showing 1.5-3" of rain for the Tues/Weds storm, which could lead to significant flooding, given ~1" of rain (or rain equivalent as snow, which will melt with next week's rain) falling with the weekend's storm and rivers already being close to full and the ground being saturated.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Will DT apologize..those numbers are ridiculous given the modelling and sounding
I do think the tv mets will tend to be on the safe side and go higher for this storm
I think you non-snow folks are probably bland and boring and like cheesy action films over artistic ones. Probably prefer missionary too.
Brittany Bell is a nice addition to ABC, after losing the legendary Amy Freeze!
Don't sleep on Dani Beckstrom - so to speak...
Yep, the landscaper looking for hot, lawn mowing weather, and the snowlover looking for cold, shoveling weather.
No, since those numbers, while probably overdone, are possible. Also DT is never shy about staking out a strong position, but he'll also readily excoriate himself when he busts, as he's brutally honest - and he won't hesitate to update his forecast based on changing info, so I'd expect his "first call" map to scale the snow back given last night's models and this morning's generally showing more wet than white for 95.
They've just finally opened certain roads in my area from the last deluge, can't wait for these 2 storms to pass through to close everything up again. I didn't see it, but supposedly behind Willowbrook Mall it was a friggin' lake for over a week.
Tyler was telling me he was at a party where someone had peanut butter whiskey. I can't even imagine the taste of that - blech!
I don't understand why he just doesn't have the hair of the dog before the flight and put the hangover off until he's home.
Lower Manhattan
There are two rivers here!
No way can we work in the office on Tuesday!
The building is literally on "Water Street!"
Not hopeful this is going to work.
Just to illustrate how difficult this forecast is, here's the Euro output from this morning's 6Z run. The Euro is still considered the best global model and look at how steep that snowfall gradient is from SE to NW due to warm air causing a changeover to rain (and maybe some sleet). For example, Middlesex County goes from <1" to about 6" from the far SE corner to the far NW corner, a distance of just ~20 miles. I'm not saying the Euro map is "right" but it just illustrates the challenge forecasters are having with this one.
Depends. a nice extra anejo paired with a subtle pb mousse & dark chocolate. Key here is the pb mousse probably needs to be muted. the saltyness of the mousse should pull some vanilla nicely from the XA.
Snow. (so I'm on topic)
It's a funnier version of that time the RU Meteorology Club went out for pitchers and karaoke at The Olive Branch.
It's okay to veer off topic when it involves alcohol and food!
As someone who has bartended full and part time for years, I would only serve it to the under 30 crowd.
Oh well.
My wife just said this morning that she was hoping for +8” this weekend - she’s going to be very disappointed as usual
Pretty sure off-topic banter in an off-topic thread is ok; I only get annoyed at the ridiculous trolling posts, which lead to petty arguments which make the threads unreadable at times, although I respond far less to them than I used to (if you notice, I've barely responded to any in this thread - others have).
