Right on schedule...the NAM puts on the big red shoes and the red nose 🤡 and NAM's us. Party on, Garth?We have been NAM-ed! Holy crap look at this, as the NAM went colder on the first wave and full phase after the 2nd wave caught up on Sunday, with most of this snow on the map falling after about noon on Sunday. Is it realistic and will it verify? Likely not, but it's catching on to the same idea seen in the Euro and GFS, just on steroids. Anyone who dismisses these runs is nuts at this point - we may still only get a slushy 1-3" along 95 (especially SW of Trenton), but the mets can't ignore the Euro, GFS and the NAM, IMO.
What happened to @RU4Real? He was good at that kinda thing.
Get her out on Saturday. Autocorrect is inappropriate and evil at times.
At 6 am Boston will likely be seeing moderate to heavy snow (forecasted radar below is from 7 am) with a few inches already on the ground, at least if most of the models are correct. Interestingly, the NWS "only" has 4-6" predicted for Boston, while every major model has at least 8" predicted with some up to 12" or more. Across the board, the NWS is not buying into the model snowfalls at least at or near the coast, as they feel there will be more warm air coming in aloft and at the surface to turn some of the modeled snow to rain. At least a decent chance that flight will be delayed or cancelled, IMO. Can he fly Saturday or Monday?
He's great at understanding airlines/flying and is also knowledgeable about weather, but the issue here is predicting the actual weather. If we get mostly cold rain with some sloppy snow in EWR, it won't be a flying issue, but if we get the 3-6" or more that is possible at EWR, then flying 10 am Sunday morning could be tough, especially if the precip extends into Sunday - I don't think there's anyone on the planet right now who could tell you with high confidence what the outcome is going to be for EWR or most locations with this storm, outside of areas well NW, where we are 95+% sure of all snow and well SE at the Jersey Shore, where we're also probably 95% likely to see almost all rain. In between there could be a lot of outcomes. And my point was, if there isn't a downside to switching to Sat, I would do so, but if Sat is problematic then there is some non-zero risk (maybe a small risk, but not zero) of Sunday am at EWR being difficult. Classic probability-driven risk-benefit analysis.
Its tricky. He is being flown out for an interview.At 6 am Boston will likely be seeing moderate to heavy snow (forecasted radar below is from 7 am) with a few inches already on the ground, at least if most of the models are correct. Interestingly, the NWS "only" has 4-6" predicted for Boston, while every major model has at least 8" predicted with some up to 12" or more. Across the board, the NWS is not buying into the model snowfalls at least at or near the coast, as they feel there will be more warm air coming in aloft and at the surface to turn some of the modeled snow to rain. At least a decent chance that flight will be delayed or cancelled, IMO. Can he fly Saturday or Monday?
So, the 18Z suite had the crazy NAM bomb and the impactful, but somewhat less snowy (vs. 12Z) GFS and Euro, which still put down a few to several inches on much of the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC (with some question as to how much will accumulate due to low ratios), and the RGEM, which held serve vs its previous runs, showing mostly a rainstorm from Philly to NB, but it had a big jump up in snowfall from about Edison up through Newark/NYC (several inches). All of them had 6"+ along/N of 78 and NW of 287 from 78 to Suffern and N of 78 in NY State and most had very little SE of 95 with mostly rain. All over the map, collectively with the battleground in CNJ being between 95 and 78 really. On to 0Z tonight. Isn't this fun kids?We have been NAM-ed! Holy crap look at this, as the NAM went colder on the first wave and full phase after the 2nd wave caught up on Sunday, with most of this snow on the map falling after about noon on Sunday. Is it realistic and will it verify? Likely not, but it's catching on to the same idea seen in the Euro and GFS, just on steroids. Anyone who dismisses these runs is nuts at this point - we may still only get a slushy 1-3" along 95 (especially SW of Trenton), but the mets can't ignore the Euro, GFS and the NAM, IMO.
Could get serious, major flooding again if the models are correct through next Wednesday. Here's an updated graphic of what I posted this morning (pages ago, lol). That's 4-7" of liquid for our region from now through Wednesday (and even if 1" of that is snow this weekend, most will melt in next week's rain). There's very little chance the 2nd storm has any snow in NJ (too warm - it goes well to our west).
It's truly comical at some level. Getting NAM'd is now such a big part of the weenie lexicon and everyone knows what it means because it happens so frequently.
It's a weekend so of course it will rain just like about every weekend this past summer.
Supposed to travel Tuesday - Friday for work, all over Central & North Jersey and Westchester (NY)Could get serious, major flooding again if the models are correct through next Wednesday. Here's an updated graphic of what I posted this morning (pages ago, lol). That's 4-7" of liquid for our region from now through Wednesday (and even if 1" of that is snow this weekend, most will melt in next week's rain). There's very little chance the 2nd storm has any snow in NJ (too warm - it goes well to our west).
The Brielle Road residents are stacking the sandbags and getting the kayaks ready.
Mon/Tues should be fine, at least until Tues late afternoon, when things get cranking. I've never heard of an RU hoops game cancelled for rain (other than the RU-Temple football game from Ida, but that was because roads by the stadium were flooded from the river - very unlikely to have any flooding before Weds).
Do you think Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be problematic as far as driving major highways in Central and North Jersey as well as Westchester county, New York (specifically Westchester) ?
Well, we've been NAM'd again at the start of the 0Z model suite tonight with about 2/3 of the precip/snow coming from the initial system and then the rest coming in the late morning/afternoon on Sunday from the wave being juiced up by the following kicker system. The first 2/3 looks to fall over about 8-9 hours from about 6 pm Sat through about 2 am Sunday with 3/4-1" per hour intensity rates, meaning the ratios are likely to stay close to 10:1 with minimal melting, especially as soundings indicate no above 32F layers in the air column during this time for much of 95, except near the transition to rain, which looks to be well south of the Raritan - on this model. Even the Kuchera maps are showing ratios of 7-8" of snow per 1" of liquid equivalent and >10:1 ratios inland, especially since we'll have good crystal growth in the dendritic growth zone given well saturated conditions due to excellent dynamic lift. The first part, at least, seems reasonable (just a straight "thump" from warm air advection into cold air from a low coming up the coast), while the 2nd part relies on some unusual interactions.We have been NAM-ed! Holy crap look at this, as the NAM went colder on the first wave and full phase after the 2nd wave caught up on Sunday, with most of this snow on the map falling after about noon on Sunday. Is it realistic and will it verify? Likely not, but it's catching on to the same idea seen in the Euro and GFS, just on steroids. Anyone who dismisses these runs is nuts at this point - we may still only get a slushy 1-3" along 95 (especially SW of Trenton), but the mets can't ignore the Euro, GFS and the NAM, IMO.
Most major highways (interstates, for example) don't stay flooded for long (if they flood at all) after heavy rains stop, as they're designed to drain well; but secondary highways, like a 202, 206, 15, 18 etc. in NJ and many of the Parkways in WC County NY, which are all near rivers that flood can be subject to more extended flooding.
Well, we've been NAM'd again at the start of the 0Z model suite tonight with about 2/3 of the precip/snow coming from the initial system and then the rest coming in the late morning/afternoon on Sunday from the wave being juiced up by the following kicker system. The first 2/3 looks to fall over about 8-9 hours from about 6 pm Sat through about 2 am Sunday with 3/4-1" per hour intensity rates, meaning the ratios are likely to stay close to 10:1 with minimal melting, except near the transition to rain, which looks to be well south of the Raritan - on this model; even the Kuchera maps are showing ratios of 7-8" of snow per 1" of liquid equivalent. The first part, at least, seems reasonable (just a straight "thump" from warm air advection into cold air from a low coming up the coast), while the 2nd part relies on some unusual interactions.
Remember folks, this is just one model and it might be out to lunch still, but two somewhat similar runs in a row does argue for this not being a pipe dream and we're still 48 hours from the start of the event, so much can change. Will post the other models as they come in in this post.
Well, we've been NAM'd again at the start of the 0Z model suite tonight with about 2/3 of the precip/snow coming from the initial system and then the rest coming in the late morning/afternoon on Sunday from the wave being juiced up by the following kicker system. The first 2/3 looks to fall over about 8-9 hours from about 6 pm Sat through about 2 am Sunday with 3/4-1" per hour intensity rates, meaning the ratios are likely to stay close to 10:1 with minimal melting, except near the transition to rain, which looks to be well south of the Raritan - on this model; even the Kuchera maps are showing ratios of 7-8" of snow per 1" of liquid equivalent. The first part, at least, seems reasonable (just a straight "thump" from warm air advection into cold air from a low coming up the coast), while the 2nd part relies on some unusual interactions.
Remember folks, this is just one model and it might be out to lunch still, but two somewhat similar runs in a row does argue for this not being a pipe dream and we're still 48 hours from the start of the event, so much can change. Will post the other models as they come in in this post.
Yes it's easier to predict rain than snow, but these threads have an audience of at least EPA, NJ and SENY and many of those folks will likely get a very impactful 6"+ of snow, plus given the difficulty of predicting snow and the major impacts it can have beyond 3-4", more than a few folks like knowing the range of possibilities for a storm. For people who get all or mostly rain, yeah, this is a non-event, apart from the curiosity of seeing if folks can break some of the snow futility records in the big cities for days without 1" of snow.
Hey, I didn't write the code, lol.Almost 14 inches in Yonkers?
Not blaming you at all. I'm just enjoying the NAM doing NAM things, in all its NAM glory. It won't be long until the warm ocean temps knock the NAM back into reality and the weenies reach the Bargaining stage.
The thing is, if the NAM is close to right, it's known to have better thermal algorithms than most other models, which is why it often is the first to show mid-level warmth and changeovers and it doesn't in the last 2 runs. The soundings for Edison, Rahway, Newark and Manhattan (ones I checked) were all below 32F during the time when 80% of the precip falls, except for being just above 32F at the surface, which really won't matter much as 32F snow will be falling on 32F snow with minimal melting from the 33-34F air. I actually think we could see better than 10:1 ratios if the NAM is right as crystal growth in the DGZ looks excellent.
Yes it is, just like a gameday forecast where we're agonizing over whether we might get 0.01" of rain or 0.05" of rain, lol, and we just can't know that level of detail until the event and everyone is watching their radars and the sky.
