Dixie (for her location - Mississippi) Cup (not really going to be used but threw it in because her coloring - I mean who doesn’t love a vanilla dixie cup 🙂)
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OT: Another Minor/Moderate,Snow Event on Friday (1/19); Still Some Uncertainty
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Dixie (for her location - Mississippi) Cup (not really going to be used but threw it in because her coloring - I mean who doesn’t love a vanilla dixie cup 🙂)
At least you don't have to concern yourself with 6 more weeks of winter.
Nope
But t-storms and high winds can get kickin around here. We just missed out on those tornadoes last month - they dropped a little East
Doing a bar crawl later today for charity too 😂
yes 60 will be a thing for many of us on Saturday
In the big picture, the weather pattern across North America will be
going undergoing a large scale transition through the long range
period as the ridging pattern that has been in place over the
eastern CONUS gradually gives way to more of a long wave trough
in the east with a ridge in the west. This should lead to an
ultimately colder weather pattern by the middle of next week and
beyond. In the meantime, low pressure will continue moving
eastward through northern Ontario and Quebec over the course of
the weekend eventually dragging a cold front through the area by
Saturday night into early Sunday. The GFS model wants to
develop another wave of low pressure along this cold front which
would bring us some showers for Saturday if this were to pan
out. The GEM and the ECMWF are drier in comparison. So we
stayed close to the NBM with the forecast which brings us a
mainly cloudy day for Saturday but only low chances for showers
(around 20 to 25 percent chances for rain). It will be quite
mild though ahead of the cold front with highs mostly in the
upper 50s to low 60s. The exception will be across the southern
Poconos and NW NJ where we expect highs to be mainly in the low
to mid 50s.
By Sunday, the aformentioned cold front will be clearing the
area to the south so this should lead to a mainly dry day with
overcast conditions in the morning potentially giving way to
some afternoon sun, especially north. Since there won`t be a
real strong surge of colder air coming in behind the front highs
will only be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler for Sunday compared to
Saturday so still above average for this time of year...mostly
in the 50s.
The forecast gets a bit trickier heading into early next week as a
mobile southern stream trough originating over the southwest US will
be moving across the SE CONUS by this time while northern stream
energy will also be diving south into the trough taking shape over
the east. The upshot of all this is that low pressure is likely to
develop near the east coast by next Monday but its track still
remains uncertain. The GFS and the GEM bring the low far enough
north to affect our area while the 12z ECMWF keeps it to the south.
So we stayed with NBM POPs which generally top out around 40-45
percent for Monday into Monday night. If the system does affect the
area it doesn`t look like it will be cold enough for widespread
significant snowfall although perhaps some in our northern and
western zones from the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos and
NW NJ. It would most likely be mainly rain though near the I-95
corridor and points south/east although even here it could end as a
period of snow Monday night. Important to again note though that
this system is still about 6 days out so there is still a lot of
uncertainty with the forecast.
The weather should trend towards drier and more seasonable by later
next Tuesday into Wednesday as the low departs and a NW flow ensues
in its wake.
In the big picture, the weather pattern across North America will be
going undergoing a large scale transition through the long range
period as the ridging pattern that has been in place over the
eastern CONUS gradually gives way to more of a long wave trough
in the east with a ridge in the west. This should lead to an
ultimately colder weather pattern by the middle of next week and
beyond. In the meantime, low pressure will continue moving
eastward through northern Ontario and Quebec over the course of
the weekend eventually dragging a cold front through the area by
Saturday night into early Sunday. The GFS model wants to
develop another wave of low pressure along this cold front which
would bring us some showers for Saturday if this were to pan
out. The GEM and the ECMWF are drier in comparison. So we
stayed close to the NBM with the forecast which brings us a
mainly cloudy day for Saturday but only low chances for showers
(around 20 to 25 percent chances for rain). It will be quite
mild though ahead of the cold front with highs mostly in the
upper 50s to low 60s. The exception will be across the southern
Poconos and NW NJ where we expect highs to be mainly in the low
to mid 50s.
By Sunday, the aformentioned cold front will be clearing the
area to the south so this should lead to a mainly dry day with
overcast conditions in the morning potentially giving way to
some afternoon sun, especially north. Since there won`t be a
real strong surge of colder air coming in behind the front highs
will only be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler for Sunday compared to
Saturday so still above average for this time of year...mostly
in the 50s.
The forecast gets a bit trickier heading into early next week as a
mobile southern stream trough originating over the southwest US will
be moving across the SE CONUS by this time while northern stream
energy will also be diving south into the trough taking shape over
the east. The upshot of all this is that low pressure is likely to
develop near the east coast by next Monday but its track still
remains uncertain. The GFS and the GEM bring the low far enough
north to affect our area while the 12z ECMWF keeps it to the south.
So we stayed with NBM POPs which generally top out around 40-45
percent for Monday into Monday night. If the system does affect the
area it doesn`t look like it will be cold enough for widespread
significant snowfall although perhaps some in our northern and
western zones from the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos and
NW NJ. It would most likely be mainly rain though near the I-95
corridor and points south/east although even here it could end as a
period of snow Monday night. Important to again note though that
this system is still about 6 days out so there is still a lot of
uncertainty with the forecast.
The weather should trend towards drier and more seasonable by later
next Tuesday into Wednesday as the low departs and a NW flow ensues
in its wake.
Should have put this in his trend thread so we can finally let this one die.
maybe his next rain event for early next week should go here
certainly a rain event does not fit the pattern change prediction
Maybe, maybe not. GFS a snowbomb, UK a decent snowfall and CMC has just light rain, so almost everything is still on the table. Plus any snow from this first storm is a bonus, as the pattern is just starting to change.
Only saying it here in case people think rain is the only possible outcome for Mon/Tues - it may be favored, but it's not a given.
It's funny that you question my posts on AmericanWx here - I'm guessing you got banned again for trolling the snow lovers and you're probably jealous that I'm very friendly with DonS and waltdrag, two of the best posters over there, plus most of the rest of the crowd there generally likes my posts based on, uhhhh, likes. And if you're not banned, I'd love to see you post about how you somehow know that Tuesday is going to be all rain for 95 - you'd be laughed off the board. Again.
Not my call at all. I'm only posting here to correct bac's posts - if he would stop posting here or at least post something accurate about Tuesday, you wouldn't see me post here.
Wow. You sound like a 12 yo girls saying you are very friendly dons and waltdrag. I don't know how to quite take that.
im not banned wtf are you talking about, you sound like dementia Joe and I never said all rain for 95...again dementia joe
50 arleady so lets see if highs overperform today....55 predicted but may go higher with full sun
tomorrow a shot at 60 will be cloudy and a touch of humidity...i bet some will wear shorts to the rac
still 50 on sunday
these highs on friday and saturday are plus 12-15 degrees...a pretty significant weather event for February, much more rare than seeing upper 30s for a stretch like we see late next week into the weekend
tomorrow a shot at 60 will be cloudy and a touch of humidity...i bet some will wear shorts to the rac
still 50 on sunday
these highs on friday and saturday are plus 12-15 degrees...a pretty significant weather event for February, much more rare than seeing upper 30s for a stretch like we see late next week into the weekend
given average is around 43..thats a plus 17
now the equivalent would be a high of 26
much more newsworthy than the upcoming pattern change right
Will need sun tomorrow to reach 60F. I'll be rooting for it and wearing shorts tomorrow to the RAC. These temps will also certainly mean my prediction of a snowless, warmer than normal pattern from 2/1 through 2/12 (I updated the pattern change start date from 2/14 to 2/13 on 2/2) is a lock to verify.
did get up to 60 officially...the clouds definitely kept it from creeping even higher but highs still overpeformed today
also noticing that they are starting to bump temperatures up a bit in the long range...a couple days of highs in upper 30s and then back in the low to mid 40s
Well, from the stories I figure you're pretty adept at crawling out of bars.
Ahhhh, the good ol days, right?
You definitely need to do a cost analysis on whether it's worth it.
59 today but some spot hit 60 clouds meant less places hit though
still a very impressive 4 day stretch with highs plus 15 on average
still a very impressive 4 day stretch with highs plus 15 on average
