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OT: Significant (CNJ) to Major (Along/N of 78) Winter Storm Likely on Tuesday (2/12-13; much less uncertainty on outcome)

Dusting/coating at most for the Thursday night (after NW) clipper, so no impact really, but the Sat clipper has the potential for 1-2" (and up to 3" in spots) for the whole area (it'll be cold enough from 2 am to 10 am Sat when any snow would fall), as per the Euro, CMC, RGEM, Icon and NBM, while the GFS/NAM/UK have 1" or less generally.

And even just 1-2" with temps below freezing mostly falling at night will lead to slick untreated roads everywhere until things warm up a bit with the indirect sun. Probably be mostly gone by sunset, but the morning could be impacted. However, nada is still possible, so don't run out and get milk and bread yet; also, the ceiling for this event is probably 3-4", unlike this past storm where the ceiling was pretty high and was realized for many.

Maybe time for a thread? @e5fdny?
I wonder if this will affect the hockey games at MetLife?
 
Well let's not celebrate too much. You completely whiffed on Philadelphia 🤣🤣
The differences in this storm was amazing as big differences were just a few miles away from each other. Literally zero in the city except for car tops and elevated surfaces. About 5 miles away in Belmont Hills we got 3.5 inches remaining as of this morning. We started with hail at home. CC no hail. Just a degree or two can make a huge difference. Officially Philadelphia got .6 at the Airport.
Well "Philadelphia" technically had 3.5-4.5" in the two locations listed below, but I would say that's like judging Manhattan by the 8" reported in the northern Bronx when Central Park and JFG got 3-4". Those two Philly locations are in the much hillier sections of far NW Philly, as you know. The other 3 reports of 1" or less are not and likely reflective of what most of Philly got. Also, nobody got "hail" - that was sleet.

And while that 14.4" number was from a model, not a prediction by me, I did say a few times that I thought Philly would likely get in the 2-5" range (and had the potential for more), as per the NWS advisory and that was wrong, as I'd say 95% of Philly got about an inch or so, just like adjacent SNJ across the river where snowfall was 1-1.5".

Good article on the snowfall gradient across Philly and why much less fell for 95% of Philly than was modeled. Kudos to the NWS, though, in not biting on the model consensus showing at least 6" for Philly the night before the storm and sticking with their 2-4" prediction for Philly/adjacent SNJ when they put out the advisories Monday evening. TWC was even further off as they had 3-5" for Philly/adjacent SNJ.

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/sn...r-storm-totals-weather-forecast-20240213.html

Philadelphia County...
Shawmont 4.5 in 1200 PM 02/13 Trained Spotter
1 NNW Manayunk 3.5 in 0100 PM 02/13 Public
Philadelphia 1.0 in 0900 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
Mantua 1.0 in 1205 PM 02/13 Public
Philadelphia International 0.6 in 0100 PM 02/13 ASOS
 
Well "Philadelphia" technically had 3.5-4.5" in the two locations listed below, but I would say that's like judging Manhattan by the 8" reported in the northern Bronx when Central Park and JFG got 3-4". Those two Philly locations are in the much hillier sections of far NW Philly, as you know. The other 3 reports of 1" or less are not and likely reflective of what most of Philly got. Also, nobody got "hail" - that was sleet.

And while that 14.4" number was from a model, not a prediction by me, I did say a few times that I thought Philly would likely get in the 2-5" range (and had the potential for more), as per the NWS advisory and that was wrong, as I'd say 95% of Philly got about an inch or so, just like adjacent SNJ across the river where snowfall was 1-1.5".

Good article on the snowfall gradient across Philly and why much less fell for 95% of Philly than was modeled. Kudos to the NWS, though, in not biting on the model consensus showing at least 6" for Philly the night before the storm and sticking with their 2-4" prediction for Philly/adjacent SNJ when they put out the advisories Monday evening. TWC was even further off as they had 3-5" for Philly/adjacent SNJ.

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/sn...r-storm-totals-weather-forecast-20240213.html

Philadelphia County...
Shawmont 4.5 in 1200 PM 02/13 Trained Spotter
1 NNW Manayunk 3.5 in 0100 PM 02/13 Public
Philadelphia 1.0 in 0900 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
Mantua 1.0 in 1205 PM 02/13 Public
Philadelphia International 0.6 in 0100 PM 02/13 ASOS
Where the heck is COCORAHS?
The rest of the city has to have more right? And what did the Trevose spotter have? 14.4?? 🤣🤣🤣
 
Well "Philadelphia" technically had 3.5-4.5" in the two locations listed below, but I would say that's like judging Manhattan by the 8" reported in the northern Bronx when Central Park and JFG got 3-4". Those two Philly locations are in the much hillier sections of far NW Philly, as you know. The other 3 reports of 1" or less are not and likely reflective of what most of Philly got. Also, nobody got "hail" - that was sleet.

And while that 14.4" number was from a model, not a prediction by me, I did say a few times that I thought Philly would likely get in the 2-5" range (and had the potential for more), as per the NWS advisory and that was wrong, as I'd say 95% of Philly got about an inch or so, just like adjacent SNJ across the river where snowfall was 1-1.5".

Good article on the snowfall gradient across Philly and why much less fell for 95% of Philly than was modeled. Kudos to the NWS, though, in not biting on the model consensus showing at least 6" for Philly the night before the storm and sticking with their 2-4" prediction for Philly/adjacent SNJ when they put out the advisories Monday evening. TWC was even further off as they had 3-5" for Philly/adjacent SNJ.

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/sn...r-storm-totals-weather-forecast-20240213.html

Philadelphia County...
Shawmont 4.5 in 1200 PM 02/13 Trained Spotter
1 NNW Manayunk 3.5 in 0100 PM 02/13 Public
Philadelphia 1.0 in 0900 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
Mantua 1.0 in 1205 PM 02/13 Public
Philadelphia International 0.6 in 0100 PM 02/13 ASOS
All these numbers are bunk. All that matters is what a certain White Bus owner experienced in his front "yard" in Philadelphia ;)
 
So it's a made up place?
You're being a bit obtuse, but you do have a point. COCORAHS is a cooperative data collecting effort for precipitation across the US and this report is very real. However, the problem is that the location provided isn't very helpful, as it says "Philadelphia 3.6 SSW" which means the location was 3.6 miles SSW of "Philadelphia" but they don't specify where in Philadelphia that is (probably CC).

And yes, it is CC, since they do provide a map for each location and this one is the 0.82 entry on the map, which does, indeed, look like it's 3.6 miles SSW of CC. There is also a snowfall report of 2.6" from a location 1.3 miles SE of Rockledge (which is in Montco, but the point is in Philly). The map below shows precip amounts, not snowfall amounts and one has to click on the point to get a snowfall report if there is one. It's all kind of complicated and unclear to be honest.

https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/V...ReportID=0ac138d9-40ee-44e0-a373-5c143b5a693e

GsgI9Og.png
 
A snowblower will never sully my property though - if I could ban one thing on the planet it would be all snowblowers, lol - they ruin the quiet perfection of freshly fallen snow.

Snowstorm hiking/snowhoeing/skiing or camping are great for that. Basically, just dump any sign of people in favor of snow.
 
You're being a bit obtuse, but you do have a point. COCORAHS is a cooperative data collecting effort for precipitation across the US and this report is very real. However, the problem is that the location provided isn't very helpful, as it says "Philadelphia 3.6 SSW" which means the location was 3.6 miles SSW of "Philadelphia" but they don't specify where in Philadelphia that is (probably CC).

And yes, it is CC, since they do provide a map for each location and this one is the 0.82 entry on the map, which does, indeed, look like it's 3.6 miles SSW of CC. There is also a snowfall report of 2.6" from a location 1.3 miles SE of Rockledge (which is in Montco, but the point is in Philly). The map below shows precip amounts, not snowfall amounts and one has to click on the point to get a snowfall report if there is one. It's all kind of complicated and unclear to be honest.

https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/V...ReportID=0ac138d9-40ee-44e0-a373-5c143b5a693e

GsgI9Og.png
I wasn't being obtuse. My point is if you aren't providing a place or neighborhood why is the NWS posting it? Philadelphia is a big city. I was interested in all the Philadelphia spots to see where the dropoff line was. Agree its unclear.
 
You're being a bit obtuse, but you do have a point. COCORAHS is a cooperative data collecting effort for precipitation across the US and this report is very real. However, the problem is that the location provided isn't very helpful, as it says "Philadelphia 3.6 SSW" which means the location was 3.6 miles SSW of "Philadelphia" but they don't specify where in Philadelphia that is (probably CC).

And yes, it is CC, since they do provide a map for each location and this one is the 0.82 entry on the map, which does, indeed, look like it's 3.6 miles SSW of CC. There is also a snowfall report of 2.6" from a location 1.3 miles SE of Rockledge (which is in Montco, but the point is in Philly). The map below shows precip amounts, not snowfall amounts and one has to click on the point to get a snowfall report if there is one. It's all kind of complicated and unclear to be honest.

https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/V...ReportID=0ac138d9-40ee-44e0-a373-5c143b5a693e

GsgI9Og.png

I wasn't being obtuse. My point is if you aren't providing a place or neighborhood why is the NWS posting it? Philadelphia is a big city. I was interested in all the Philadelphia spots to see where the dropoff line was. Agree its unclear.

3bd0c519-3bfd-4d70-8b9f-1f16d950b1dd_text.gif
 
His word not mine just to be clear. Funny thing is nobody was able to answer the question. So...
I did answer the question for the location of the COCORAHS report and showed everything anyone needed to know about those reports, but I absolutely agree that the NWS needs to do better with snowfall report locations and I've given them that feedback in the past, but no change yet. Maybe I'll try again.
 
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I searched (obviously not well enough!)
Again, not blaming you at all.

This is good example of why I’m not a fan of the “trends” type threads on here someone else is so fond of. Since things can get lost.

You had a great post and some very needed info.

Storm/event over, thread over…

le-it-be-written.gif
 
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Again, not blaming you at all.

This is good example of why I’m not a fan of the “trends” type threads on here someone else is so fond of. Since things can get lost.

You had a great post and some very needed info.

Storm/event over, thread over…

le-it-be-written.gif
Thanks, I did not take it as blaming and I have to agree with your opinion on separate threads. I have now posted Zarrow's map on the correct thread.
 
Again, not blaming you at all.

This is good example of why I’m not a fan of the “trends” type threads on here someone else is so fond of. Since things can get lost.

You had a great post and some very needed info.

Storm/event over, thread over…

le-it-be-written.gif
He posted in the wrong event thread not the pattern thread, so your premise is incorrect here. Also, the current thread was at the top of the page, so not sure how it was missed.
 
He posted in the wrong event thread not the pattern thread, so your premise is incorrect here. Also, the current thread was at the top of the page, so not sure how it was missed.
What's your call on this thing? Not that it's a big deal just curious if it will over-perform. Seems like people's snow maps have been ticking up.
 
What's your call on this thing? Not that it's a big deal just curious if it will over-perform. Seems like people's snow maps have been ticking up.
See, now someone else did it again, @RU848789

As @RUPete is asking about the event and not the trend.

So I’m not wrong…trend thread bad, event thread good.
 
I've heard @mildone isn't allowed anywhere near when the groundhog is making his prediction. Something about him nailing the groundhog?
I had a groundhog living in my yard for years. Kept itself hidden most of the time, but could see it running around now and then. Sadly, about 3-4 months back or so, it crawled out onto my front walk where it sat for a couple/few days barely moving then died. My kid tried to get animal control out to check on it when it was clear it wasn't doing well. But they never showed up. 🙁
 
There's no bickering in the 5 other places l post weather info. I imagine you could guess why.
I understand. I really wish the moderators would do *much* more to "moderate." But they don't. This is the only place I have access to your information and, as valuable as it is, I'm just worn out from the constant attempts at oneupsmanship, let alone the gratuitously nasty comments that go back and forth.
 
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