Normally, I would never start a thread for such a minor snowfall, but it is Christmas Eve tomorrow and getting any snow on that day has been pretty rare, plus the snow is likely to fall on very cold surfaces well below 32F in the 5-10 am timeframe, so any snow that falls will accumulate, even on paved surfaces, meaning there could be slippery spots, so be careful out there. For most folks who got 2" or more this past weekend, a little bit more snow tomorrow morning will mean a White Christmas for the first time in a long time (defined by 1" or more on the ground, and technically, this means more than 1/2", as they round up for this). Folks who got 3" or more, likely don't need more snow for a White Christmas (we still have 2" on the ground), given we'll barely be above 32F for about 6 hours tomorrow after about noon, but some fresh snow would still be nice.
Almost all of the main global and mesoscale models are showing a fairly weak clipper system putting down 1/4-1" for the area from 276/195 (the low end) up to 80 (the high end) with an inch or more N of 80, although there are a couple of models showing very little snow (nada to a coating) and a couple are showing 0.75-1.5" for most of CNJ/NNJ/EPA/NYC metro, including the HRRR, which did so well for the weekend storm. NWS is calling for <1" for most of the region, as per the map below, but has also issued advisories for parts of SEPA/SNJ, including Philly, for the threat of a glaze of freezing rain (with very likely <1/2" of snow); the freezing rain risk is very low north of 276/195, since temps should stay well below 32F in the column through the end of the precip (discussion is below).
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...s-parts-of-ct-7a-1225-sd-ob-here-if-you-wish/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1001 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clipper system will be over southern Ontario around midnight
tonight. Southerly flow continues ahead of this system, but
again, surface temperatures will be in the 20s through tonight,
not warming up to above freezing until later Tuesday morning. As
a result, initial precipitation will fall as snow. With the
center of the low over Central New York by daybreak Tuesday,
there will be nose of warmer air surging above 1000 mb for the
Delaware Valley and Delmarva. For these areas, there will be a
period of snow and freezing rain with a light glaze of ice
possible. 00Z HREF 24 hour probability of freezing rain greater
than 0.00 inches is generally 40 to 70 percent. As a result,
will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this mix
of snow and freezing rain for portions of the Delaware Valley,
including Philadelphia, for Tuesday morning. Snow is expected
for the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh
Valley, though snow accumulations should generally be less than
1 inch. Will not issue a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas
as snowfall amounts will be below criteria.
Almost all of the main global and mesoscale models are showing a fairly weak clipper system putting down 1/4-1" for the area from 276/195 (the low end) up to 80 (the high end) with an inch or more N of 80, although there are a couple of models showing very little snow (nada to a coating) and a couple are showing 0.75-1.5" for most of CNJ/NNJ/EPA/NYC metro, including the HRRR, which did so well for the weekend storm. NWS is calling for <1" for most of the region, as per the map below, but has also issued advisories for parts of SEPA/SNJ, including Philly, for the threat of a glaze of freezing rain (with very likely <1/2" of snow); the freezing rain risk is very low north of 276/195, since temps should stay well below 32F in the column through the end of the precip (discussion is below).
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...s-parts-of-ct-7a-1225-sd-ob-here-if-you-wish/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1001 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clipper system will be over southern Ontario around midnight
tonight. Southerly flow continues ahead of this system, but
again, surface temperatures will be in the 20s through tonight,
not warming up to above freezing until later Tuesday morning. As
a result, initial precipitation will fall as snow. With the
center of the low over Central New York by daybreak Tuesday,
there will be nose of warmer air surging above 1000 mb for the
Delaware Valley and Delmarva. For these areas, there will be a
period of snow and freezing rain with a light glaze of ice
possible. 00Z HREF 24 hour probability of freezing rain greater
than 0.00 inches is generally 40 to 70 percent. As a result,
will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this mix
of snow and freezing rain for portions of the Delaware Valley,
including Philadelphia, for Tuesday morning. Snow is expected
for the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh
Valley, though snow accumulations should generally be less than
1 inch. Will not issue a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas
as snowfall amounts will be below criteria.
