OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[rutgersdave]

Your "buy" level is way lower than most due to your pessimistic POV. The market never reached your levels last spring which is why you missed out. Be careful this time. We will be at ATHs again very soon.

Lol, I was out of the market in Feb before the March crash so anytime I came back in the market I made money. No wonder everybody thinks you)re crazy on this board and I Should ignore you more. You come up with half truths to make yourself feel better.

If it doesn’t hit my buy level one day you think you don’t change your view of the market the next day or week and re evaluate the situation. You can change and buy the next day or week, stocks don’t go up and down 10-15% in one day. I have also been slowly buying GOOG, FB, AMZN, and PYPL already the last few days again in small increments because no one know the bottom. I will hit it harder if they hit my target buy.

 

[RU-05]

Still think it is a WSB dynamic going on here (or something similar).

They might have added some fuel to the fire but:

"The revised plan would provide for the payment in cash in full of all administrative, priority, secured, and unsecured claims in the chapter 11 cases and would deliver significant value to the company's existing shareholders," said the statement.

https://www.etrade.wallst.com/v1/stocks/news/search_results.asp?ChallengeUrl=https://idp.etrade.com/idp/SSO.saml2&reinitiate-handshake=0&AuthnContext=authenticated&env=PRD&symbol=HTZGQ&docKey=1-SN20210513008962-008962&DMSourceID=DJNF&Source=DJMW&DisplayName=MarketWatch&docDate=2021-05-13%2011%3A12%3A00&headline=MW%20Bankrupt%20Hertz%20stock%20soars%2062%25%20on%20news%20of%20deal%20to%20exit%20chapter%2011%20that%20will%20benefit%20shareholders

I think the move is probably pretty legitimate.

 

[RU-05]

He could have done that without buying any bitcoin. Nobody knows why Musk is doing this but the activist angle makes no sense. Everyone has known the mining is an energy hog forever. There is no chance Musk didn't know this.

The ESG theory makes more sense or something else that hasn't come out yet.

The ESG and activist investor theory is kind of the same thing.

And whether he is intentionally doing it or not, him saying this, is pressuring miners to lower their carbon footprint. The growing idea that crypto is a environmental negative, and thus an anti ESG investment, is a pressure on the miners, and crypto, as well.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lol, I was out of the market in Feb before the March crash so anytime I came back in the market I made money. No wonder everybody thinks you)re crazy on this board and I Should ignore you more. You come up with half truths to make yourself feel better.

We all know what happened last spring, it's okay. Let's just be more level-headed today about predictions. Forget about timing and stick to FMV. Investors will win more that way.

 

[T2Kplus20]

They might have added some fuel to the fire but:

"The revised plan would provide for the payment in cash in full of all administrative, priority, secured, and unsecured claims in the chapter 11 cases and would deliver significant value to the company's existing shareholders," said the statement.

https://www.etrade.wallst.com/v1/stocks/news/search_results.asp?ChallengeUrl=https://idp.etrade.com/idp/SSO.saml2&reinitiate-handshake=0&AuthnContext=authenticated&env=PRD&symbol=HTZGQ&docKey=1-SN20210513008962-008962&DMSourceID=DJNF&Source=DJMW&DisplayName=MarketWatch&docDate=2021-05-13%2011%3A12%3A00&headline=MW%20Bankrupt%20Hertz%20stock%20soars%2062%25%20on%20news%20of%20deal%20to%20exit%20chapter%2011%20that%20will%20benefit%20shareholders

I think the move is probably pretty legitimate.

Good info, thanks. BTW, still amazed with how well ETH is holding up during the Elon crash.

 

[RUDead]

The ESG and activist investor theory is kind of the same thing.

And whether he is intentionally doing it or not, him saying this, is pressuring miners to lower their carbon footprint. The growing idea that crypto is a environmental negative, and thus an anti ESG investment, is a pressure on the miners, and crypto, as well.

I agree this could have an impact on the miners but crypto has been an environmental negative from day 1 and Musk knows that.

I don't agree he is an activist because an activist investor has a plan. This is typical shoot first, aim second behavior from Musk. He is just scrambling now to cover his tracks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I agree this could have an impact on the miners but crypto has been an environmental negative from day 1 and Musk knows that.

I don't agree he is an activist because an activist investor has a plan. This is typical shoot first, aim second behavior from Musk. He is just scrambling now to cover his tracks.

There are a lot of clean energy focused BTC miners, but then you have the miners in China. However, all cryptos are not created equal. ETH naturally only requires 25% of the energy (equalized by transactions) that BTC needs. ETH miners are way more efficient already and ETH will be moving to a proof of stake protocol soon which will eliminate the need for traditional mining all together.

 

[RU-05]

Anyways looks like we are in the green pre market.

 

[RU-05]

Calm common sense from Tom Lee (interesting comments on the VIX):

View embedded media

"For the last 10 years the market was tech, in 2021 the market is not tech".

Saw something else that said, when value runs, it's a 5 year run.

Eventually Tech become a major buy, but when? Not sure what to do with my semi's right now.

 

[rutgersdave]

"For the last 10 years the market was tech, in 2021 the market is not tech".

Saw something else that said, when value runs, it's a 5 year run.

Eventually Tech become a major buy, but when? Not sure what to do with my semi's right now.

Just become a long term investors for your semi stock and within 5 years they will come back. I don‘t think up you need wait 5 years but wait as long as necessary. Buffet stock was out of season for at least 2 years before the value stock came into Vogue this year and now his stock is soaring.

 

[RU-05]

Just become a long term investors for your semi stock and within 5 years they will come back. I don‘t think up you need wait 5 years but wait as long as necessary. Buffet stock was out of season for at least 2 years before the value stock came into Vogue this year and now his stock is soaring.

3 years of dead money for BRK.

Up 40% since July though.


As per Semi's, if nothing else, given some pretty reasonable p/e's, and impressive expected growth, it's a relatively safe space.

 

[RU-05]

gonna add to GM.

Current P/E of 9x. Expected growth looks good. Transitioning to EV which "should" lead to multiple expansion.

 

[rutgersdave]

3 years of dead money for BRK.

Up 40% since July though.


As per Semi's, if nothing else, given some pretty reasonable p/e's, and impressive expected growth, it's a relatively safe space.

I made a mistake when I started buying Amazon. I brought it, not even thinking about the highs and low, it sank right afterward. Normally, it goes up and down but it never reached my purchase price which was highly unusual and held for about 9 months. Right after I sold it, I thought I could hold it till it came back, it rocketed 30-40% after I took the loss.

 

[RU-05]

MSCI no longer using the US listing for Alibaba, instead using the Hong Kong listing for it's funds, such as the EEM.

 

[patk89]

+1 on long term portfolio, stick to the plan and keep buying. Even last spring was just noise.

As for timing the market, the vast majority of people are not good at it, as per decades and decades of data. Most on this board are FOS or only highlight the few times they get something right. It would be fun to have a thread where everyone talks about screwing up trying to time the market! LOL.

We all have some stories to tell, and the longer you have been at it, the more likely you have a brutal loss to explain. When I was younger, I was much more confident. Mr Market has taught me a few lessons. The old Seinfeld episode where Kramer is overjoyed as Jerry's investment declines in value. Jerry asks him why it makes him so happy that he is losing money. Kramer shrugs his shoulders.

 

[rutgersdave]

We all have some stories to tell, and the longer you have been at it, the more likely you have a brutal loss to explain. When I was younger, I was much more confident. Mr Market has taught me a few lessons. The old Seinfeld episode where Kramer is overjoyed as Jerry's investment declines in value. Jerry asks him why it makes him so happy that he is losing money. Kramer shrugs his shoulders.

As I mentioned earlier, T2K has basically done most of his investing right after 2008 where the market has very much gone straight up. I have been investing for over 45 years and why I am more cautious

 

[RU-05]

+1 on long term portfolio, stick to the plan and keep buying. Even last spring was just noise.

As for timing the market, the vast majority of people are not good at it, as per decades and decades of data. Most on this board are FOS or only highlight the few times they get something right. It would be fun to have a thread where everyone talks about screwing up trying to time the market! LOL.

See I got in just off the lows last spring, so my whole thing has been timing the market.

And while I wasn't perfect, I did very well on selling high as well.

I had a discussion back in summer with someone who was saying there is no such thing as market timing, it's all about fundamentals, I didn't time the market, I just got in when valuations were very good. Now I think there is more nuance to it then that, but there is certainly an element of truth to it.

So semi's? Reasonable p/e's with excellent growth prospects. Maybe you can get a better price, but maybe you won't, but if you buy and hold, you'll probably do quite well in the long run.

 

[RU-05]

Speaking of Semi's, LRCX and AMAT, suppliers of semi manufacturing equipment atop my leader board today. Semi's themselves not as hot.

 

[patk89]

+1 on long term portfolio, stick to the plan and keep buying. Even last spring was just noise.

As for timing the market, the vast majority of people are not good at it, as per decades and decades of data. Most on this board are FOS or only highlight the few times they get something right. It would be fun to have a thread where everyone talks about screwing up trying to time the market! LOL.

There is a reason Hertz is in bankruptcy. No one should invest in Hertz unless they understand bankruptcy proceedings. Yes, car prices are high, but any money Hertz makes will go its creditors. Buying Hertz stock without understanding how money is distributed in bankruptcy proceeding will not work out well for you.

Hertz has had an unbelievable ride. Its unsecured bonds traded below 20 at the height of Covid. Business came to a complete halt. Filed for bankruptcy. Fast forward to today, 2 investment groups competed to buy the Company. Market expectations for the rental car market at all time highs with strong demand this summer and a limited fleet of vehicles available. All lenders, both secured and unsecured, will be paid in full. Equity is being valued at $8/share. So, if you had nerves of steel and bought the 6.00% 2028 Bond at 20 last May, you now will recover 100 (par) and been paid 6.00% to do so. By the way, that 6.00% is on the par value, so 1,000 invested at 20, would produce interest income of $60 on a $200 investment, so 30% plus the capital gain. We are involved with Avis and they held up much better, stock has doubled in 2021, and are poised to have a very strong 2nd half of 2021 and 2022.

 

[T2Kplus20]

"For the last 10 years the market was tech, in 2021 the market is not tech".

Saw something else that said, when value runs, it's a 5 year run.

Eventually Tech become a major buy, but when? Not sure what to do with my semi's right now.

There is plenty of value in tech, just not the spec names. At least, that is my POV. Added to my value allocation by a sizable amount, but still holding plenty of non-spec growth (including semi's). Let's keep monitoring. I normally assess at the end of every month.

 

[T2Kplus20]

3 years of dead money for BRK.

Up 40% since July though.


As per Semi's, if nothing else, given some pretty reasonable p/e's, and impressive expected growth, it's a relatively safe space.

Very good point, on semi's and BRK. BRK is one of the top holdings of most of my LC value funds.

 

[patk89]

See I got in just off the lows last spring, so my whole thing has been timing the market.

And while I wasn't perfect, I did very well on selling high as well.

I had a discussion back in summer with someone who was saying there is no such thing as market timing, it's all about fundamentals, I didn't time the market, I just got in when valuations were very good. Now I think there is more nuance to it then that, but there is certainly an element of truth to it.

So semi's? Reasonable p/e's with excellent growth prospects. Maybe you can get a better price, but maybe you won't, but if you buy and hold, you'll probably do quite well in the long run.

Verbatim to what was written by many who thought that they were skillful day traders in the late 90's/early 2000's. You were fortunate to decide to begin investing when the market was strong. You bought the high fliers touted by the talking heads and profited. It is not that easy as you are discovering. If you think something is undervalued, buy it and be prepared to wait things out if necessary. This is not instant gratification. Sometimes, you can get stuck holding something much longer than you intended, and don't want to take a realized loss. Or worse yet, tie up your liquidity well before a market bottom and have no dry powder when valuations look especially attractive. If this was easy, we could all sit at home and make money buying/selling. It's not, trust me.

 

[RU-05]

Verbatim to what was written by many who thought that they were skillful day traders in the late 90's/early 2000's. You were fortunate to decide to begin investing when the market was strong. You bought the high fliers touted by the talking heads and profited. It is not that easy as you are discovering. If you think something is undervalued, buy it and be prepared to wait things out if necessary. This is not instant gratification. Sometimes, you can get stuck holding something much longer than you intended, and don't want to take a realized loss. Or worse yet, tie up your liquidity well before a market bottom and have no dry powder when valuations look especially attractive. If this was easy, we could all sit at home and make money buying/selling. It's not, trust me.

I wouldn't say I was fortunate that I decided to begin investing when I did. It's not like I just randomly jumped in. I saw that dip as an excellent opportunity and I was correct.

I was fortunate that it got as hot as it did though. I made out big, even if at the end I trended downwards. I've rotated well though.

Is this what people who bought low and sold high thought in the late 90's? Maybe, but I have no problem being compared to people who did that. I don't think I was especially skilled but I was able to take advantage of a specific environment.

 

[RU-05]

Kind of interesting that BRK got hot as AAPL, by far Berkshires largest holding, has gone cold.

 

[RUAldo]

AAPL puzzles me. Relatively cheap stock, pays dividend (albeit small), mountain of cash on hand, great brand, is widely owned, institutional support, etc. Only thing I can think of is that all of the new retail investor money went to spec tech and crypto leaving AAPL on the outside looking in.

 

[RU-05]

AAPL puzzles me. Relatively cheap stock, pays dividend (albeit small), mountain of cash on hand, great brand, is widely owned, institutional support, etc. Only thing I can think of is that all of the new retail investor money went to spec tech and crypto leaving AAPL on the outside looking in.

Ya long time AAPL guys are already in. New money is going elsewhere.

But the concern with AAPL, moreso then the other big tech is their sales in things like IPADS were pulled fwd sales and they those sale numbers may actually pull back a little in the future. FB ad rev is only going up. AMZN although that is a pulled fwd sales growth, is going to continue to grow.

 

[patk89]

I wouldn't say I was fortunate that I decided to begin investing when I did. It's not like I just randomly jumped in. I saw that dip as an excellent opportunity and I was correct.

I was fortunate that it got as hot as it did though. I made out big, even if at the end I trended downwards. I've rotated well though.

Is this what people who bought low and sold high thought in the late 90's? Maybe, but I have no problem being compared to people who did that. I don't think I was especially skilled but I was able to take advantage of a specific environment.

You were lucky. Good for you and please use any of the money you take out of the market on something nice for your family. You were inexperienced with little to no knowledge of what you were doing and it paid off. Surely you understand that you are a novice investor with a severe lack of access to information compared to the people who do this for a living? The point I was trying to make is that you actually had people becoming day traders in the late 90's because they producing large gains taking reckless risks before the tech collapse. Then suddenly, they had huge losses and didn't understand what happened. You don't want to be compared to them.

 

[RUJMM78]

AAPL puzzles me. Relatively cheap stock, pays dividend (albeit small), mountain of cash on hand, great brand, is widely owned, institutional support, etc. Only thing I can think of is that all of the new retail investor money went to spec tech and crypto leaving AAPL on the outside looking in.

One of the best reasons to buy AAPL is that they have stock splits every 3-5 years allowing small investors to buy the stock at a reasonable price.compared to Amazon and Google.

 

[RU-05]

You were lucky. Good for you and please use any of the money you take out of the market on something nice for your family. You were inexperienced with little to no knowledge of what you were doing and it paid off. Surely you understand that you are a novice investor with a severe lack of access to information compared to the people who do this for a living? The point I was trying to make is that you actually had people becoming day traders in the late 90's because they producing large gains taking reckless risks before the tech collapse. Then suddenly, they had huge losses and didn't understand what happened. You don't want to be compared to them.

Well I mean, I'm not a day trader, but I'd be OK being compared with anyone who bought low and sold high in the late 90's.

Day traders who had huge losses? I mean that has not been me at all so yeah I don't want to be compared to them.

I do admit Im a novice investor, but I'm less of one now then I was a year ago.

 

[ScarletNut]

AAPL puzzles me. Relatively cheap stock, pays dividend (albeit small), mountain of cash on hand, great brand, is widely owned, institutional support, etc. Only thing I can think of is that all of the new retail investor money went to spec tech and crypto leaving AAPL on the outside looking in.

If you look closely at Apple, their innovation falls far short of their successful past. New iPhones, iPads offer very little new features to get excited about. In essence, they've gotten stale. This is the feeling of many of the tech, IoT, new innovations commentators and investors that I follow.

 

[RU-05]

COIN's first ever qrtly report as a public company tonight.

 

[RU Cheese]

If you look closely at Apple, their innovation falls far short of their successful past. Now iPhones, iPads over very little new features to get excited about. In essence, they've gotten stale. This is the feeling of many of the tech, IoT, new innovations commentators and investors that I follow.

Plus, all the things the prior posted mentioned - lots of cash, volume of sales, institutional support - are already priced into the stock. Company-specific stock movements are related to changing expectations and there isn't anything recent or disruptive happening to drive a disproportionate increase in AAPL price.

 

[RU in IM]

TSLA/BTC/CW haters don't like facts. LOL!

Well, once again, the numbers tell the story. And it seems the ”haters” concern that valuations were stretched was accurate.

DJIA up 527 or 1.60% (up 8% since the ARKK peak)
S&P up 59 or 1.46% (up 5% since the ARKK peak)
NASDAQ up 112 or 0.86% (down 7% since the ARKK peak)

Tesla down 22 or 3.68 (about 36% off its high)
ARKK down 2.89% (about 37% off its high)

So while the market kept running, ARKK and. TSLA hit a speed bump. But don’t let the facts get in your way.

 

[RU-05]

Plus, all the things the prior posted mentioned - lots of cash, volume of sales, institutional support - are already priced into the stock. Company-specific stock movements are related to changing expectations and there isn't anything recent or disruptive happening to drive a disproportionate increase in AAPL price.

The 5g super cycle is thought, by some at least, to be that next leg. At 28x p/e I don't think that is baked in, and that likely has to do with some skepticism as to how real that super cycle will be.

End of the day, whether it is innovation, disruption, or whatever, it is all about growth. If earnings grow(or for newer companies revenues) then the stock price will go up.

E-trade shows modest earnings growth through 2024. But Apple does typically beat expectations.

 

[RU-05]

So is PDD down because BABA reported a loss? A loss due to a one time fine, which without that fine Baba would have reported a $2ish bil profit.

 

[T2Kplus20]

So is PDD down because BABA reported a loss? A loss due to a one time fine, which without that fine Baba would have reported a $2ish bil profit.

Hard to figure out the big China tech companies. Overall, a very good day! :)

 

[tom1944]

We all have some stories to tell, and the longer you have been at it, the more likely you have a brutal loss to explain. When I was younger, I was much more confident. Mr Market has taught me a few lessons. The old Seinfeld episode where Kramer is overjoyed as Jerry's investment declines in value. Jerry asks him why it makes him so happy that he is losing money. Kramer shrugs his shoulders.

I had a mutual fund whose largest holding was JDS Uniphase. That did not work out as much as it should have since I knew I should take the profits when it was soaring but got greedy and it crashed and burned


To save some of you the trouble

Stock​

During the 1990s, JDS Uniphase stock was a high-flyer tech stock investor favorite. Its stock price doubled three times and three stock splits of 2:1 occurred roughly every 90 days during the last half of 1999 through early 2000, making millionaires of many employees who were stock option holders, and further enabling JDS Uniphase to go on an acquisition and merger binge. After a downturn in the telecom industry as part of the dot com bubble, JDS Uniphase announced in late July 2001 the largest (up to then) write-down of goodwill. Employment soon dropped as part of the Global Realignment Program from nearly 29,000 to approximately 5,300, many of its factories and facilities were closed around the world, and the stock price dropped from $153 per share to less than $2 per share

 

[T2Kplus20]

I had a mutual fund whose largest holding was JDS Uniphase. That did not work out as much as it should have since I knew I should take the profits when it was soaring but got greedy and it crashed and burned


To save some of you the trouble

Stock​

During the 1990s, JDS Uniphase stock was a high-flyer tech stock investor favorite. Its stock price doubled three times and three stock splits of 2:1 occurred roughly every 90 days during the last half of 1999 through early 2000, making millionaires of many employees who were stock option holders, and further enabling JDS Uniphase to go on an acquisition and merger binge. After a downturn in the telecom industry as part of the dot com bubble, JDS Uniphase announced in late July 2001 the largest (up to then) write-down of goodwill. Employment soon dropped as part of the Global Realignment Program from nearly 29,000 to approximately 5,300, many of its factories and facilities were closed around the world, and the stock price dropped from $153 per share to less than $2 per share

I can see QS or other spec companies without any product or revenue crashing like that. Sooner or later you need to make money!

 

[ScarletNut]

I had a mutual fund whose largest holding was JDS Uniphase. That did not work out as much as it should have since I knew I should take the profits when it was soaring but got greedy and it crashed and burned


To save some of you the trouble

Stock​

During the 1990s, JDS Uniphase stock was a high-flyer tech stock investor favorite. Its stock price doubled three times and three stock splits of 2:1 occurred roughly every 90 days during the last half of 1999 through early 2000, making millionaires of many employees who were stock option holders, and further enabling JDS Uniphase to go on an acquisition and merger binge. After a downturn in the telecom industry as part of the dot com bubble, JDS Uniphase announced in late July 2001 the largest (up to then) write-down of goodwill. Employment soon dropped as part of the Global Realignment Program from nearly 29,000 to approximately 5,300, many of its factories and facilities were closed around the world, and the stock price dropped from $153 per share to less than $2 per share

I remember it well. I remember buying 5000 shares of JDS back then on margin before playing a round of gold. Sold it after the round for a 6k profit. Crazy times. In the end, I got burned like most others.

 

[tom1944]

I remember it well. I remember buying 5000 shares of JDS back then on margin before playing a round of gold. Sold it after the round for a 6k profit. Crazy times. In the end, I got burned like most others.

That experience changed my outlook. I take profits now when I am at a point that I am satisfied with the gain and I do not worry about paying taxes if it is a taxable account