Pretty much said, given her disregard of risk mgmt, she shouldn't be managing other peoples money.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Buy CRM. My entire industry requires it and our addiction is getting bigger. After the big boys, CRM is a no-brainer. It is one of my core 12 long holds.
Even on the halftime, where Josh Brown has been a Cathy Wood defender, when the Judge asked him to explain Wood's statement that she saw MRNA(whose 2021 P/E will be somewhere around 6x) as overvalued, while some of her holdings were not, Brown said something along the lines of "I have no idea".
I've looked at that but not going to step in. I had an order for it below 200 at a support level I saw but I pulled it recently. After seeing what's happened with other tech names I don't trust it won't get whacked even if their earnings are good and if they're not good forget it. I see levels of support way lower in the 100s that might interest me depending on what's going on at the time and definitely will be using stops regardless.
I believe in the innovation POV. However, my issue is Josh Brown's issue as well. There are way more innovative companies/stocks out there than some of her top holdings. And we haven't seen adjustments over the past 12 months.
Ya people were talking RBLX in recent days, and while, in a vacuum this may be a good price to buy, given the broader landscape I'm not messing with it.
Now CRM actually makes money, and as I note has a fairly low P/E relative to it's history.
RBLX? Not expected to a turn a profit even 3-4 years out. Rev growth expected to be good but not amazing.
CRM is kind of interesting, but I wouldn't touch RBLX here.
Just wrapped up The Antisocial Network. Good read. Thx for recommending! I'll have to pick up some of his other books.
FB, NVDA, PYPL make money too and at least for FB and PYPL they are also not bad compared to itself historically multiple wise, especially FB. NVDA just had good earnings and FB is a cash flow beast and look how they're treated. CRM is a good company and I like it but in this environment margins of safety have to be even wider than normal imo. Like I said if things are volatile widen buy points when averaging down or look at lower entry levels. I'm not FOMO. If it gets away from me so be it.
RBLX and the like are lotto tickets for me so I don't even consider that a comparison and same for other companies that don't make money. Not my risk profile. Those are speculative things where I'd have to be willing to take the gamble and willing to lose it all.
What’s not clear to me is how enterprise spend is impacted by continued inflation. If the economy slows as a result of rising rates I could see software and cloud getting crushed.
I don’t where the PE will land but I would be concerned about buying any stocks over 40PE. I think all of the stocks mentioned will go higher but when the market turns.
Read an article of head and shoulder for S&P, not good down 20%.
A 'head-and-shoulders top' in the stock market could lead to big downside as the bond market flashes a warning, Bank of America says
"A decisive break below 4278 to 4222 is the signal to confirm the head-and-shoulders top with deeper downside risk toward 4000 and even into the 3800s."
Great way to think about tech. Buy big on the ones making good profit. Plenty to choose from! Did you see MTTR is under $7 now. That company has a great product, but not much revenue yet.
This shows how irrational the dip has been. This is why I am loading up on the leverage plays. Too many great opportunities to jump in on right now. Might as well play the entire market.
Wonderful FUD article. The problem is, the big boys are crushing earnings too much for such a dip. Honestly, if it ever got down that low.....wow, that would be fun. LOL!I don’t where the PE will land but I would be concerned about buying any stocks over 40PE. I think all of the stocks mentioned will go higher but when the market turns.
Read an article of head and shoulder for S&P, not good down 20%.
A 'head-and-shoulders top' in the stock market could lead to big downside as the bond market flashes a warning, Bank of America says
"A decisive break below 4278 to 4222 is the signal to confirm the head-and-shoulders top with deeper downside risk toward 4000 and even into the 3800s."finance.yahoo.com
MTTR's 3 qtr's as a public company has seen their rev's decrease. Next qtr is expected to be lower yet. Price to sales, even after being down 80% or whatever is still 18x. No earnings expected in the next couple years.
I had bought some puts, sold them today. It was a crumb trade for sure, but I was up 50%. Might buy more if it rebounds.
The MTTR's of the world are going to drop a lot more, especially if that rev dip happens for another quarter or two.
You know there's a saying...I'm sure you've heard it. The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Down 20%?I don’t where the PE will land but I would be concerned about buying any stocks over 40PE. I think all of the stocks mentioned will go higher but when the market turns.
Read an article of head and shoulder for S&P, not good down 20%.
A 'head-and-shoulders top' in the stock market could lead to big downside as the bond market flashes a warning, Bank of America says
"A decisive break below 4278 to 4222 is the signal to confirm the head-and-shoulders top with deeper downside risk toward 4000 and even into the 3800s."
I'm not so well versed in the charts but that doesn't look to be a very well-defined head and shoulders formation.
4300 does look to be an important level to hold, and there are downside catalysts lurking.
I have 15 years on my side (probably more). These are the times to enjoy and take advantage of. :)
It's not. That was just a super FUD article. You want to see a legit head and shoulders? Look at F. But that took a legit earnings miss for it to happen. I don't buy into most of this TA nonsense.
Once upon a time in Russia would be the logical choice now given the events over there. It’s a great look at the rise of the Oligarchs in the wake of the fall of the USSR
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That’s why I have 18% fixed income and cash. I know fixed income returns suck now but I want prepare for any potential decade-long decline (not that I expect it) without having to sell equities. When retired, as I am, I think you (I) need a cushion to weather the storm—so to speak. “Sequence of Returns Risk” is very real for a retiree, but can be obviated with a reasonable cushion and asset allocation. I choose not to go with the often cited conventional wisdom of a much higher bond allocation for someone my age.
I don’t where the PE will land but I would be concerned about buying any stocks over 40PE. I think all of the stocks mentioned will go higher but when the market turns.
Read an article of head and shoulder for S&P, not good down 20%.
A 'head-and-shoulders top' in the stock market could lead to big downside as the bond market flashes a warning, Bank of America says
"A decisive break below 4278 to 4222 is the signal to confirm the head-and-shoulders top with deeper downside risk toward 4000 and even into the 3800s."
The S&P 500 still has a way to go to reach a sound valuation. Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
Current: 35.85 -0.78 (-2.12%)
4:00 PM EST, Thu Feb 17
| Mean: | 16.92 | |
| Median: | 15.87 | |
| Min: | 4.78 | (Dec 1920) |
| Max: | 44.19 | (Dec 1999) |
18%! Are you a closet bear? :)
But since you are in retirement, obviously, that seems prudent.
Not a bear but went through multiple long-term declines (e.g., the lost decade of 2000- 2009). Plus, like you, I may want to buy a shore property at some point and while you can get an asset-based mortgage with no/little income, I’d prefer to have some cash rather than sell to pay cash and face capital gains, NIIT, IRMA, etc.
We are using our backdoor Roth IRAs to plan for capital purchases in retirement. We will likely have our shore house already, but we can use the tax-free Roth money to pay off that mortgage (if we have one) or use it for other big purchases. We are definitely considering using the Roth 401k option as well. Right now, only 15%'ish of our retirement is Roth. Probably should increase this a bit!
Got into retirement investing in late 2005, so I missed the dot.com crash.
Good plan! I’m torn between leaving Roth for legacy or using part of it for a purchase such as a shore property. I’m doing conversions but it’s rough to convert amounts that are large enough to make a big dent. Maybe just have to bite the bullet. You’re young enough to be able to plan better.
18% seems light when protecting against a potential decade-long decline.
Already bought our vacation home back in 2017. Best decision we ever made. Love having the home, but we also lucked out on the timing. We would have been priced out if we waited.
I guess it all depends on the portfolio size. What’s right for one person could be totally wrong for another. I think it makes sense to factor in portfolio size, any pensions, social security, etc. You’re right, though, any given number is not applicable to all.
I have had a modest position inTIPS but have exited that. I don’t think there is anything wrong with them, I just didn’t get comfortable enough for them to have a meaningful proportion for me. Nothing wrong with them, though.
Correct. I am retiring this year, but have a much lower equity allocation. I factored in worse case scenario along with 30+ years in retirement. I want to avoid having to come back to work. A colleague of mine retired in 2007 after working 38 years, and got clobbered and was back to work 2 years later.
18% seems reasonable. Seriously, people get way too conservative in retirement, but what % of your money do you really need in a 5-year period? Everything else should stay invested. Perhaps not super growth exposure, but definitely broad market indexes.
I know we should be start using the Roth 401k option. I need to do some math on the taxes. Besides, the company match remains pre-tax, so it will still be a balance. We have so much disposable monthly income, so this shouldn't be a problem.
As for financial planning, my annual bonuses hit in about 2 weeks. Hmm.....what to do! :)
Very interesting, assets allocation is all over the board and it appears most are somewhat educated in investing. There is no correct way of investing, I respect their decision.
Pinehurst 10% equity, RU in I’m about 50% equity, phs 82% equity, myself 30% equity, all retired or about to retire. I retired in 2010. T2K is probably 60-70% equity but is younger.
I say buy the beach house now, can’t beat it while the kids are young.
60-70%? How dare you! 100% invested my bear'ish friend.
Okay, including all of our non-house assets (not just retirement/investment accounts), we are at 82% equities and 18% cash. Still a stupid absolute value of cash, but it came down a little after those 2 $100k CDs matured. We invested that money.
