Flat for the year.
About a year I ago I checked it's long term chart, and it went toe to toe with MSFT. I assume it has fallen off the pace.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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About a year I ago I checked it's long term chart, and it went toe to toe with MSFT. I assume it has fallen off the pace.
I wonder what percentage of people are in the potential home purchase category
There is a huge percentage of people/family that is never
Many vacation home markets are up 300-400% in 2 years…jobs don’t explain where that influx of money is coming from. Heavy Borrowing at low interest rates more likely the explanation although I’m not suggesting these buyers are credit risks.
Inflation could normalize from here but these prices remain the new normal. If current inflation rates continue, the housing prices are going to continue to go up.
Maybe even more so now. Continued divergence of the rich and poor.
This was something Grantham talked about in his most recent Bloomberg interview that I agreed with. Edit: Not sure I agree with it, but it was interesting, and as we discuss here, looks like it has merit.
Agree - I don’t see prices retreating to pre-COVID levels. These prices may level off a bit but will be the norm. At some point, I’ll just have to accept it and choke on the price I’ll end up paying for a second home. I grew up always looking for a deal and love buying stuff on sale so these economic times make me crazy.
Well that kind of was my point. They are getting loans that are justified by their current pay.
I spoke of my niece above who bought in LBI. She's a nurse practioner while her husband works for Morgan Stanley. They make good money, they got a loan, they Air BnB their place.
I don't know that prices are justified. I think they're inflated it's just a question of how much air will come out imo. I expect a decline but I don't think it would be a crash or significant decline unless there's bad recession.
Going back a bunch of months Marko Kalanovich(Im probably way off on the name) said the market could handle a 10 year above 2% and oil at $120 a barrel.
I remember John Nanjaren specifically scoffing at the idea.
Welp here we are and the market is like "yeah this ain't so bad". For now at least.
I remember John Nanjaren specifically scoffing at the idea.
Welp here we are and the market is like "yeah this ain't so bad". For now at least.
I once read the current generation was going to receive the largest inheritance in our history
I believe that has a significant impact
Up day for oil and defense stocks.
That seems to be the pattern of late. Oil and defense up, tech and overall market down. Tech and overall market up, oil and defense down.
That seems to be the pattern of late. Oil and defense up, tech and overall market down. Tech and overall market up, oil and defense down.
$68-70 trillion. The crypto and NFT world bring this up often as a driver of those markets vs. traditional investments.
Fair enough…but mortgages on the unprecedented increase of million dollar+ homes on the market still cost the borrowers even if they have decent income levels. So, something has to give at some point. The numbers simply don’t add up. Inflation is off the charts and housing and autos are scorching hot. I don’t see how 5-6% raises are cause to celebrate and justify paying thousands over blue book on a used car. Or, paying $100K over asking on a house that is already up 100% in 2 years. And then people claim the savings rate and disposable income are in great shape? All of these metrics can’t possibly co-exist.
Josh Brown noted oil and defense yesterday.
Said both are such small %'s of the market but thinks, given what is happening in Europe, not to mention Asia, that while they have been overlooked in recent years, they will be looked at much more favorably in the upcoming years.
Not that novel an idea, but I think the point of them being such underperformers in recent years and such small segments of the overall market, signals room for significant upside.
Said both are such small %'s of the market but thinks, given what is happening in Europe, not to mention Asia, that while they have been overlooked in recent years, they will be looked at much more favorably in the upcoming years.
Not that novel an idea, but I think the point of them being such underperformers in recent years and such small segments of the overall market, signals room for significant upside.
Ya, taking a deep comprehensive dive into these metrics for clarity would be helpful.
I have today and tomorrow off, but I doubt I'll have time. ;)
GIS up about 5% raised full year forecast on sales and earnings. Don't see stocks like that move this much usually. Mention of some supply chain issues as well. I was wondering if and how far inflation might make people downgrade (private label etc.) but it seems not so far. Forecast raise shows they're passing on the costs and for now consumers are accepting it without downgrading.
IMHO, vacation homes are now primary residence for a lot of people due to WFH or retirement. I was in the market for a beach house for a long time but the main reason I never pulled the trigger was usage. I didn’t want to rent it out and between all the kids activities, just not sure how often I was going to use it. But COVID changes all of that. It’ll swing back but much slower than people think. The only thing that will hit it fast is another Sandy or property tax re-val.
GIS was a surprise to me. I’m still a big fan of Walmart because I don’t think the grocery bill is going to retreat any time soon especially if wheat, corn, and other Ukraine exports pressure the market.
Anyone have thoughts on ADBE?
I agree with defense, but not oil for the long-term. It's a fading industry. At this price, oil stocks should be 2-3x than what they are today. Many younger people will never buy oil stocks no matter what.
My strategy, which is still in it's beta phase, of buying puts on stocks which had signficant one day rips not doing so well the past week and half.
Selling and rolling in the money calls on high volatility stocks is working well though. The beauty of it is I want down days. As long as we don't go on a post covid like run (or a an all out tank) I'm good. Give me the roller the coaster.
Selling and rolling in the money calls on high volatility stocks is working well though. The beauty of it is I want down days. As long as we don't go on a post covid like run (or a an all out tank) I'm good. Give me the roller the coaster.
I'm a long hold on ADBE. It is one of my 14 stocks. I will dive into earnings tonight, wrapping up a short family vacation today.
Just reading this gets me tired. LOL! Just buy and hold.....stocks, funds, or ETFs. So much easier.
Good points. I’m wondering if vacation home prices push many people towards more affordable recreation options such as campers. I’ve owned CWH (Camping World) for a while and may consider buying more as a long term hold.
The thought of oil as a long term, at least in terms of equities is, in addition to the next bunch of years where they will be making buko $$$, they are also getting into the energy transition game.
Exxon just had an announcement regarding this this morning(or maybe it was yesterday). Maybe this is just window dressing? But we're hearing "transition" from corners we were not previously hearing it from in years past.
I’ve been considering ADBE for a while. Trying to get a sense of whether his is just a short term hit.
I’ve also been looking at YETI = premium brand and stock is not expensive?
I read yesterday On the street Cramer said $316 for ADBE, I believe PE around 30, as the low and I forecasted $300 a couple of days ago.Cramer was caution about ADBE before earnings because of the high expectations. I would start buying at $340-350.
I will start adding to my ADBE position under $400. I assume we will have a few soft market days that will push ADBE down a bit more.
That is really the only reason I keep writing covered calls. I am not sure the income is worth the extra effort at this point. But, it keeps me interested on what is going on.
Every bear market gives you off ramps along the way. While not guaranteed the U.S. may be heading into a bear. We just had a face ripping rally of 7-10% depending on what sectors you were in. This could be an off ramp to more downside ahead. While we never got to the 20% downside for it to be called a bear market, we were close. Forwards earnings look very murky with inflation running hot, QE ending, and fed rate hikes ahead. The big "if" is what consumer spending will look like. With fuel prices this high savings can dry up very fast and that could start to cut into consumer spending.
I caught a piece of the recent rally but am now back in cash. will wait until the next downturn to hunt and peck.
I caught a piece of the recent rally but am now back in cash. will wait until the next downturn to hunt and peck.
Started selling 20-30% of my AMZN and GOOG yesterday night and this morning. Moved from 55% stocks to 32%. Will be watching the next few days to see if the market moved up or down. I’ll buy back AMZN when it reaches 2,700- 2,900 and GOOG 2,500. I don’t want to be greedy.
Nothing wrong with that strategy. I’m still convinced last week was a head fake. I just get the feeling we will retest lows before stabilizing in 2H of this year.
