OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[BROTHERSKINNY]

You only lose money if you sell! :)
#patience

T2k, normally I would say your right but I believe we have an economic hurricane headed our way which could be the equivalent of a force 3-4 hurricane. Worldwide inflation is running hot. Oil prices through the roof(may be $5 - 6/gal by summer), and food prices set to skyrocket higher and we may even experience food shortages.
while I did not sell at the exact top, I got it close enough, played this recent rally with 25% of my funds, took my money off the table yesterday and will hang out to see what happens over the next 12-24 months. Usually I am a bull but am really wary of this market regardless of the recent rally.

 

[T2Kplus20]

T2k, normally I would say your right but I believe we have an economic hurricane headed our way which could be the equivalent of a force 3-4 hurricane. Worldwide inflation is running hot. Oil prices through the roof(may be $5 - 6/gal by summer), and food prices set to skyrocket higher and we may even experience food shortages.
while I did not sell at the exact top, I got it close enough, played this recent rally with 25% of my funds, took my money off the table yesterday and will hang out to see what happens over the next 12-24 months. Usually I am a bull but am really wary of this market regardless of the recent rally.

Even if what you said is true.....which I don't buy into.....I am still not selling. I am buying all the way down and all the way up like I did in 2008/2009 and 2020. I made massive returns while many scared investors were left out in the cold trying to time the market. No thanks!

 

[RUinPinehurst]

T2k, normally I would say your right but I believe we have an economic hurricane headed our way which could be the equivalent of a force 3-4 hurricane. Worldwide inflation is running hot. Oil prices through the roof(may be $5 - 6/gal by summer), and food prices set to skyrocket higher and we may even experience food shortages.
while I did not sell at the exact top, I got it close enough, played this recent rally with 25% of my funds, took my money off the table yesterday and will hang out to see what happens over the next 12-24 months. Usually I am a bull but am really wary of this market regardless of the recent rally.

I agree with your forecast. Things could get ugly and stay so for a while. Kind of curious, though, as to where you'll park your displaced $$$. Commodities, TIPs, I-Bonds, Tbills, Gold, "High-Yield (LOL) Savings, etc?

 

[T2Kplus20]

I agree with your forecast. Things could get ugly and stay so for a while. Kind of curious, though, as to where you'll park your displaced $$$. Commodities, TIPs, I-Bonds, Tbills, Gold, "High-Yield (LOL) Savings, etc?

It's either stocks or essentially under the mattress as inflation eats it away. Good luck! :)

 

[jtung230]

Just trying to lower my cost basis.

What about taxes? Do you factor that in?

 

[RUinPinehurst]

It's either stocks or essentially under the mattress as inflation eats it away. Good luck! :)

Well, first, my question was to another poster. Second, your response? I'll take it with humor.

 

[rutgersdave]

What about taxes? Do you factor that in?

IRA accounts mostly. If I have profits or losses, I report it for the taxable account. I still made money if I have to pay taxes.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Nothing wrong with that strategy. I’m still convinced last week was a head fake. I just get the feeling we will retest lows before stabilizing in 2H of this year.

I liked Josh Brown comments after the bell. Wouldn't rule out new highs later in the year but thinks we can retest the lows and likely break them.

We're around the 200DMA on the SP so that's a critical spot to see if it will break through and hold or will it get rejected. I tend to think the latter. I've said this before that while we've not had a bear market in the indices as a whole, with the Nasdaq being somewhat of an exception, a lot of names have gone down 20-50% and these aren't high flyer no money making names either. So even if we retest on the indices, I wonder how much lower some individual names like those go. Even if they go lower will it be appreciably?

 

[T2Kplus20]

I liked Josh Brown comments after the bell. Wouldn't rule out new highs later in the year but thinks we can retest the lows and likely break them.

We're around the 200DMA on the SP so that's a critical spot to see if it will break through and hold or will it get rejected. I tend to think the latter. I've said this before that while we've not had a bear market in the indices as a whole, with the Nasdaq being somewhat of an exception, a lot of names have gone down 20-50% and these aren't high flyer no money making names either. So even if we retest on the indices, I wonder how much lower some individual names like those go. Even if they go lower will it be appreciably?

There will be plenty of ATHs in the near future, so people need to take advantage of any short-term weakness. I have my shopping list. Also, scheduled to make another across the board buy on Friday for our E-Trade account (8 ETFs). Let's see what happens tomorrow!

Would love to buy more NVDA soon.

 

[rutgersguy1]

There will be plenty of ATHs in the near future, so people need to take advantage of any short-term weakness. I have my shopping list. Also, scheduled to make another across the board buy on Friday for our E-Trade account (8 ETFs). Let's see what happens tomorrow!

Would love to buy more NVDA soon.

Your buddy Tom Lee was just on and don't think his comments were unreasonable. 40% of SP has been in a bear market was one of his comments. That's kind of what I've said above a few times...even if we go lower and the indices retest how much lower can individual quality names that have already been hit pretty hard go? He mentioned FAANG (I'd include MSFT in there as well) as being good places to be. AAPL showing real strength on down day today. It's crazy how resilient that sucker is, it's just about a consumer staple in tech and probably even more resilient than those names lately in an uncertain environment.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Your buddy Tom Lee was just on and don't think his comments were unreasonable. 40% of SP has been in a bear market was one of his comments. That's kind of what I've said above a few times...even if we go lower and the indices retest how much lower can individual quality names that have already been hit pretty hard go? He mentioned FAANG (I'd include MSFT in there as well) as being good places to be. AAPL showing real strength on down day today. It's crazy how resilient that sucker is, it's just about a consumer staple in tech and probably even more resilient than those names lately in an uncertain environment.

Very reasonable comments. In my mind, FAANG really means the Big 5 - AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, FB, and AMZN. TSLA and NVDA are also up there as well. All buy and hold must haves.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Very reasonable comments. In my mind, FAANG really means the Big 5 - AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, FB, and AMZN. TSLA and NVDA are also up there as well. All buy and hold must haves.

TSLA has had quite the rebound too. I mentioned not long ago it looks like it's on the verge of a 6 handle but nope it didn't happen and instead turned to a 1K handle lol.

TSLA isn't for me cause of the PE. I'm not so familiar with how that battery technology will broaden beyond cars. If I was more certain of that I might be more willing to take a small shot at a better price even with a high PE. As just a a car company it's too much for me. NVDA I like. I have all of them, except TSLA, at way lower that I've had for many years. I trade those names though on top of the core positions but always willing to "own those trades" at the levels I buy them if it works out that way. It's happened to FB for me recently but I'm not far from a breakeven point currently.

AMZN at a key point too around the 200DMA. Not sure it will get through and hold yet but it's testing.

 

[jtung230]

IRA accounts mostly. If I have profits or losses, I report it for the taxable account. I still made money if I have to pay taxes.

It takes all the joy out of it. I’m up like 5 figures on a Google trade and the first thing I think about is how much taxes I have to pay. I get more satisfaction winning $500 at a blackjack table.

 

[rutgersguy1]

IRA accounts mostly. If I have profits or losses, I report it for the taxable account. I still made money if I have to pay taxes.

I might be stupid but taxes are always back burner for me. I just want to have profitable trades. If I'm paying taxes well that means I made money which is the goal so I'll deal with whatever taxes.

 

[T2Kplus20]

TSLA has had quite the rebound too. I mentioned not long ago it looks like it's on the verge of a 6 handle but nope it didn't happen and instead turned to a 1K handle lol.

TSLA isn't for me cause of the PE. I'm not so familiar with how that battery technology will broaden beyond cars. If I was more certain of that I might be more willing to take a small shot at a better price even with a high PE. As just a a car company it's too much for me. NVDA I like. I have all of them, except TSLA, at way lower that I've had for many years. I trade those names though on top of the core positions but always willing to "own those trades" at the levels I buy them if it works out that way. It's happened to FB for me recently but I'm not far from a breakeven point currently.

AMZN at a key point too around the 200DMA. Not sure it will get through and hold yet but it's testing.

Take a hard look at TSLA. Their Berlin Giga Plant just opened and they are crushing production while their "competition" is s-ing the bed. You have to put your P/E valuation discipline to the side and realize that TSLA may be AMZN 2.0. Their lead over the competition just keeps growing and growing and growing. Got in at $570 last March.

NVDA is a no-brainer. Demand for their products just keeps growing and growing. Many other tech players rely on them.

 

[tom1944]

Even if what you said is true.....which I don't buy into.....I am still not selling. I am buying all the way down and all the way up like I did in 2008/2009 and 2020. I made massive returns while many scared investors were left out in the cold trying to time the market. No thanks!

I am in the same place in that I am accumulating shares. Lower the price the better

 

[RUAldo]

I might be stupid but taxes are always back burner for me. I just want to have profitable trades. If I'm paying taxes well that means I made money which is the goal so I'll deal with whatever taxes.

It took me way too long to learn this lesson. Taxes should never be primary concern when deciding whether to sell unless it’s purely related to tax planning purposes.

 

[jtung230]

Take a hard look at TSLA. Their Berlin Giga Plant just opened and they are crushing production while their "competition" is s-ing the bed. You have to put your P/E valuation discipline to the side and realize that TSLA may be AMZN 2.0. Their lead over the competition just keeps growing and growing and growing. Got in at $570 last March.

NVDA is a no-brainer. Demand for their products just keeps growing and growing. Many other tech players rely on them.

How do you know they are crushing production? Musk himself said they have supply issues. I do think it impacts Tesla less because they are a low volume producer at this point.

 

[T2Kplus20]

How do you know they are crushing production? Musk himself said they have supply issues. I do think it impacts Tesla less because they are a low volume producer at this point.

They are crushing the competition via production #'s. The EV car business is about how many EV cars can you produce and sell. With Berlin opening, production will reach of whole new plateau.

 

[jtung230]

It took me way too long to learn this lesson. Taxes should never be primary concern when deciding whether to sell unless it’s purely related to tax planning purposes.

maybe not primary, but should be secondary If you are in the top tax bracket.

 

[jtung230]

They are crushing the competition via production #'s. The EV car business is about how many EV cars can you produce and sell. With Berlin opening, production will reach of whole new plateau.

True, but the EV market is so small if you are only comparing EVs. Tesla need to gain market share of the overall auto market.

 

[RU-05]

Going back a bunch of months Marko Kalanovich(Im probably way off on the name) said the market could handle a 10 year above 2% and oil at $120 a barrel.

I remember John Nanjaren specifically scoffing at the idea.

Welp here we are and the market is like "yeah this ain't so bad". For now at least.

Anyone watch the halftime today. Joe T. mentioned this very thing.

Deegus also mentioned BP having a plan in place to transition to renewables. Something we were talking about above.

I think it just means I watch too much CNBC.

 

[RU-05]

SHEL ?

MSN

www.msn.com

I'm sure they're all doing the same.

 

[RU in IM]

I remember talking to my boss 20 or so year ago, and the take away was a loan at 5% was basically free money.

We are no where near "opposite of cheap money" territory.

It’s all relative. Assets were priced to cheap rates. The $ interest on a mortgage went up 44%, with rates going from 2.875 to 4.7%. That’s about $7,000 more in interest in year 1 on a $400k loan. If rates were in the 5% range, vs. 2.875%, we would not have experienced such high asset inflation, including the incredible increase in home prices over the last 18 months.

 

[RU in IM]

Housing market is a mess. No clue how average Joe can afford anything unless he/she takes on a bigger mortgage payment at low rates…but now that will be harder with rates rising - plus rents are off the charts. I’ve been looking at vacation homes for 3+ years. The market is just plain stupid. Look at LBI. There are people that bought houses 6 months ago that are trying to flip them for 100%+ profits. Even small lake towns in PA are up 300-400% in 2 years. I was looking at a small bungalow pre-COVID for $150K. Same house is now listed at $599K. Upstate NY…out West…down South…same story.

We bought our 2nd home in 2017. If we didn’t, there’s no way we could buy it now as it has appreciated about 60-80%, with most of that in the last 1.5 years.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It’s all relative. Assets were priced to cheap rates. The $ interest on a mortgage went up 44%, with rates going from 2.875 to 4.7%. That’s about $7,000 more in interest in year 1 on a $400k loan. If rates were in the 5% range, vs. 2.875%, we would not have experienced such high asset inflation, including the incredible increase in home prices over the last 18 months.

As mortgage rates go up, home prices come down. It just takes a few selling cycles. Happens all the time.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not complicated. NVDA = Buy, Buy, Buy.

.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALrNA87OceA&list=WL&index=17

 

[BROTHERSKINNY]

I agree with your forecast. Things could get ugly and stay so for a while. Kind of curious, though, as to where you'll park your displaced $$$. Commodities, TIPs, I-Bonds, Tbills, Gold, "High-Yield (LOL) Savings, etc?

For right now, cash is king. May trade something. Don’t know yet, have to do due diligence.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

"I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing.”

That was activist investor Carl Icahn, pouring cold water on recent comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who said that despite tightening monetary policy, the economy could avoid a hard crash.

“I think there is going to be a rough landing… Inflation is a terrible thing when it gets going,” Icahn told CNBC late Tuesday. “I think there very well could be a recession or even worse.”

The chairman of Icahn Enterprises said he has been keeping “everything hedged” for the past several years, with what he calls strong hedges on long positions. And he’s not willing to make any short term predictions, as he noted that the war in Ukraine has only added more uncertainty to an economic outlook already clouded by surging inflation."

From MarketWatch....

 

[RUinPinehurst]

For right now, cash is king. May trade something. Don’t know yet, have to do due diligence.

With current and expected rate of inflation, "cash" is not king, though. You have to park it somewhere to avoid losing $. So where do you (or other posters) "park it" until it's redeployed into other asset classes?

 

[T2Kplus20]

With current and expected rate of inflation, "cash" is not king, though. You have to park it somewhere to avoid losing $. So where do you (or other posters) "park it" until it's redeployed into other asset classes?

+1
I think we all can agree: cash = trash

 

[T2Kplus20]

"I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing.”

That was activist investor Carl Icahn, pouring cold water on recent comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who said that despite tightening monetary policy, the economy could avoid a hard crash.

“I think there is going to be a rough landing… Inflation is a terrible thing when it gets going,” Icahn told CNBC late Tuesday. “I think there very well could be a recession or even worse.”

The chairman of Icahn Enterprises said he has been keeping “everything hedged” for the past several years, with what he calls strong hedges on long positions. And he’s not willing to make any short term predictions, as he noted that the war in Ukraine has only added more uncertainty to an economic outlook already clouded by surging inflation."

From MarketWatch....

There will be no recession unless the Fed really f's up. The economy and job markets are very strong. Powell and Yellen are experienced and should avoid a Fed-induced recession. Regardless, long term prospects look amazing, so now is the time to buy any weakness.

 

[RU in IM]

With current and expected rate of inflation, "cash" is not king, though. You have to park it somewhere to avoid losing $. So where do you (or other posters) "park it" until it's redeployed into other asset classes?

I plan to buy more VZ

 

[RU-05]

TLRY. Sitting at $5.86 a level that it has only sunk below twice since it's began trading in 2018(or at least that's as far back as e-trade's chart goes).

It is top left to bottom right since it's highs in early 2021, so a falling knife aspect for sure.

But you can sell the $6 strike April 1 calls which are just out of the money for a 5% premium. That's not bad for a little over a week.

 

[RU-05]

It’s all relative. Assets were priced to cheap rates. The $ interest on a mortgage went up 44%, with rates going from 2.875 to 4.7%. That’s about $7,000 more in interest in year 1 on a $400k loan. If rates were in the 5% range, vs. 2.875%, we would not have experienced such high asset inflation, including the incredible increase in home prices over the last 18 months.

True, it is all relative, and historically speaking mortgage rates are still very very low.

 

[RU-05]

I plan to buy more VZ

Cheap, even relative to itself. Sitting right at covid lows so should be support. 5% dividend.

If you're looking for a safe play, this looks like a good one.

 

[T2Kplus20]

True, it is all relative, and historically speaking mortgage rates are still very very low.

Been doing some research on more leveraged plays. Lots to choose from. Eyeing 2x on financials and healthcare/biotech.

 

[rutgersguy1]

FB again showing some nice relative strength at the open. The frequency of relative strength for FB on the daily is improving and wondering if we'll finally see a trend change with it. For the longest time it's been showing relative weakness but lately it looks like it's reversing....either in line with the market or a little strength.

 

[RU-05]

@rutgersguy1

TA thoughts on DHI? Looks to me sitting right at the top end of what should be support based on it's high's of late 2020.

Definitely getting hurt by commodity costs as well as rising rates, but a current p/e of 6x, pre covid it sold at a multiple between 8x and 12x, and most of that time it was above 10x, so that stuff is baked in, at least to some extent.

 

[RU-05]

FB again showing some nice relative strength at the open. The frequency of relative strength for FB on the daily is improving and wondering if we'll finally see a trend change with it. For the longest time it's been showing relative weakness but lately it looks like it's reversing....either in line with the market or a little strength.

Current p/e of 15. Which is an all time low. Rivaled only by its level in the 4th qtr of 2018 when it traded at 17x. If you bought FB near those lows of 2018, you were up 50% in 6 months.

Now there are different concerns at this point, maybe most notably is the investment into the metaverse which will cut into profits. Rev's are expected to grow yoy but EPS is expected to contract in 2022, before continuing on it's growth path beyond that. Put a 20x multiple, which it typically trades well above, on it's 2023 eps and this is a $300 stock.

I already own, I bought just before the earnings call which tanked the stock. So I'm down 28ish%, but I am looking to add(obviously I already should have).