OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[rutgersguy1]

@rutgersguy1

TA thoughts on DHI? Looks to me sitting right at the top end of what should be support based on it's high's of late 2020.

Definitely getting hurt by commodity costs as well as rising rates, but a current p/e of 6x, pre covid it sold at a multiple between 8x and 12x, and most of that time it was above 10x, so that stuff is baked in, at least to some extent.

Homebuilders isn't a sector I trade even in good times. Looking though it seems other homebuidlers (TOL, KBH) are also in the mid single digits for PE. Not sure what the industry norm PE is in general since I don't pay attention to it. It looks like it's been rejected twice by the 50DMA and some of the technicals are still downward sloping. Could be in a downward channel with lower highs and maybe lower lows on the way. Homebuilder in a rising rate environment seems a little risky to me but I always say anything is tradeable. Mid 70s could have some some support and then mid-high 60s after that.

Like I said, homebuilders isn't a sector for me but IIRC TOL is the higher end one, KBH/DHI/LEN might be a little lower end. Which end of the market would be better able to digest rising costs. You'd think higher end but who knows. Entry level homes (especially when things are so expensive) has its place too.

Home sales fell far more than expected in February, as mortgage rates rose and supply remained tight

Rising mortgage rates are starting to take their toll on homebuyers. Sales fell far more than expected in February.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rutgersguy1]

Current p/e of 15. Which is an all time low. Rivaled only by its level in the 4th qtr of 2018 when it traded at 17x. If you bought FB near those lows of 2018, you were up 50% in 6 months.

Now there are different concerns at this point, maybe most notably is the investment into the metaverse which will cut into profits. Rev's are expected to grow yoy but EPS is expected to contract in 2022, before continuing on it's growth path beyond that. Put a 20x multiple, which it typically trades well above, on it's 2023 eps and this is a $300 stock.

I already own, I bought just before the earnings call which tanked the stock. So I'm down 28ish%, but I am looking to add(obviously I already should have).

I own a core position from long ago but recently for a trade (which could turn to an own) I bought after earnings in the 240s. ( didn't even do the 3 day rule at the time which I do follow sometimes but didn't in this case but I'm retail what do you expect lol) It and the market was volatile so I can widen buy points in that kind of environment. There were some supports in the 220 area and then 190-210 was another area after that I mentioned. I bought a few more times all under 200 to around its near term lows. My average is just above where it trades now and I'm just about break even.

Metaverse will be a financial drain but that should be baked into the stock imo because they threw the kitchen sink between that and Apple privacy issues in the last earnings report. They still make tons of money and cash flow is good and buyback is still there if they choose to use it as well. It went down 50% off the highs, that's huge for a company like this. It's not some high flyer that makes no money and has a crazy PE. Sentiment was utterly horrible and I'd say still not back to "normal" but probably turning. As long as the market isn't more crazy, I think a run up to that gap and where I originally bought the shares isn't out of the question a little bit down the line. 220s would probably be some resistance before that though.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Cheap, even relative to itself. Sitting right at covid lows so should be support. 5% dividend.

If you're looking for a safe play, this looks like a good one.

I mentioned this just recently. I think 48-51 area should be decent support and the 5% dividend is always helpful with that. Rising rates could impact the "acceptability" of that a little but still a solid number.

 

[RU-05]

Homebuilders isn't a sector I trade even in good times. Looking though it seems other homebuidlers (TOL, KBH) are also in the mid single digits for PE. Not sure what the industry norm PE is in general since I don't pay attention to it. It looks like it's been rejected twice by the 50DMA and some of the technicals are still downward sloping. Could be in a downward channel with lower highs and maybe lower lows on the way. Homebuilder in a rising rate environment seems a little risky to me but I always say anything is tradeable. Mid 70s could have some some support and then mid-high 60s after that.

Like I said, homebuilders isn't a sector for me but IIRC TOL is the higher end one, KBH/DHI/LEN might be a little lower end. Which end of the market would be better able to digest rising costs. You'd think higher end but who knows. Entry level homes (especially when things are so expensive) has its place too.

Home sales fell far more than expected in February, as mortgage rates rose and supply remained tight

Rising mortgage rates are starting to take their toll on homebuyers. Sales fell far more than expected in February.

www.cnbc.com

Ya looks like we are right at those highs from 2020 so the initial portion of that support range, and given interest rates will go up and commodity prices are showing little sign of cooling off I feel it will trade off deeper into that support.

I do think the need for housing will eventually get this jumping again, but I'm holding off here.

 

[RU-05]

An oil guy was on this morning, saying that while Biden has been a headwind for the industry, he has turned 180 degrees in the past 2 weeks.

 

[RU-05]

Wish I bought more Walmart at $132 because it’s now become my favorite store. Groceries are waaaay better than I expected.

They were talking WMT so dug around to find this post.

It's only at $142, so it's not like you missed a big move from $132.

And it, much like AMZN, has been doing nothing for approaching 2 years. Now "doing nothing" can also be called "building a base". Eventually this thing breaks out right? Maybe but keep in mind it built a 12 year base between 2000 and 2012, and even since 2012 it has underformed the S&P, never mind the nasdaq, and don't even compare it to an overperformer like MSFT.

Some OK growth expected in the coming years, 1.5% dividend.

I dunno, looks like dud.

 

[RU-05]

I'm ripping so far this morning.

TELL leading the way but then I got MRVL, INTC, and AMD just behind it.

 

[ScarletNut]

Worth posting in this thread and the bitcoin thread since Blackstone is the world's largest asset management firm with over 10 trillion dollars:

BlackRock Looks to Offer Crypto Services as Client Demand Rises: CEO

The Russia-Ukraine conflict will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, Fink said in a letter to shareholders.

www.coindesk.com

 

[RU-05]

Worth posting in this thread and the bitcoin thread since Blackstone is the world's largest asset management firm with over 10 trillion dollars:

BlackRock Looks to Offer Crypto Services as Client Demand Rises: CEO

The Russia-Ukraine conflict will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, Fink said in a letter to shareholders.

www.coindesk.com

Blackstone, Blackrock, whatever it takes. 😜

 

[RU-05]

It hasn't been working, but I'm no quitter, so with Clf up 10% today and just ripping the past month I bought some in the money puts which expire tomorrow.

Looking for it to pull back in the near term off this rip.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I'm ripping so far this morning.

TELL leading the way but then I got MRVL, INTC, and AMD just behind it.

INTC approaching the 200DMA....not one I've had in quite a long time as they too often disappoint with delays, margins etc...wonder though now say as longer term at least 4-5 year play it might not be a bad idea to get into again. The benefit of bringing production here may finally help them out of their rut.

 

[rutgersguy1]

It hasn't been working, but I'm no quitter, so with Clf up 10% today and just ripping the past month I bought some in the money puts which expire tomorrow.

Looking for it to pull back in the near term off this rip.

Can't speak to your individual names but I did like your idea of thinking things would at least pull back and take a breather. Too bad it hasn't worked out yet. Hope those plays work out for you. Time decay and such can be something I don't have a handle on which is why I stay away from options.

 

[ScarletNut]

Blackstone, Blackrock, whatever it takes. 😜

My bad, damn autocorrect, yes BlackRock, not Blackstone.

 

[ScarletNut]

INTC approaching the 200DMA....not one I've had in quite a long time as they too often disappoint with delays, margins etc...wonder though now say as longer term at least 4-5 year play it might not be a bad idea to get into again. The benefit of bringing production here may finally help them out of their rut.

NVDA planning to use Intel's chips for some sort of expansion into software. I don't know all the details but it is interesting.

 

[rutgersguy1]

They were talking WMT so dug around to find this post.

It's only at $142, so it's not like you missed a big move from $132.

And it, much like AMZN, has been doing nothing for approaching 2 years. Now "doing nothing" can also be called "building a base". Eventually this thing breaks out right? Maybe but keep in mind it built a 12 year base between 2000 and 2012, and even since 2012 it has underformed the S&P, never mind the nasdaq, and don't even compare it to an overperformer like MSFT.

Some OK growth expected in the coming years, 1.5% dividend.

I dunno, looks like dud.

Another long term core position of mine but I think your characterization is correct. It is retail, but it's a staple which is why I've owned it. It had a nice run when their online strategy started to take root and hold but other than that it's just a steady safe stock. Current dividend yield is eh.

Looks like it's in kind of a trading range, like AMZN which I've mentioned before as also in a trading range not too long ago (which has since broke down for now), say low 130s to about the high 140s-low 150s.

 

[RUDead]

An oil guy was on this morning, saying that while Biden has been a headwind for the industry, he has turned 180 degrees in the past 2 weeks.

That's good to hear. Did he give any specifics? Seems like they have been slowing playing the permits for a year. Hopefully that is what they are changing.

But they also announced that Europe is going to be buying more LNG from us, which will make gas more expensive if they don't fix the red tape issue.

 

[RUAldo]

Another long term core position of mine but I think your characterization is correct. It is retail, but it's a staple which is why I've owned it. It had a nice run when their online strategy started to take root and hold but other than that it's just a steady safe stock. Current dividend yield is eh.

Looks like it's in kind of a trading range, like AMZN which I've mentioned before as also in a trading range not too long ago (which has since broke down for now), say low 130s to about the high 140s-low 150s.

I’m convinced that WMT will be an inflation winner this year and next.

 

[rutgersguy1]

NVDA planning to use Intel's chips for some sort of expansion into software. I don't know all the details but it is interesting.

I read they're open to it, not necessarily that it will happen.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I’m convinced that WMT will be an inflation winner this year and next.

Well in recession, and I suppose high inflation environment too which haven't really had til now, WMT and Dollar Stores and such are usually viewed as good areas to possibly be.

 

[RU-05]

That's good to hear. Did he give any specifics? Seems like they have been slowing playing the permits for a year. Hopefully that is what they are changing.

But they also announced that Europe is going to be buying more LNG from us, which will make gas more expensive if they don't fix the red tape issue.

Na, no specifics.

But I think he realized he needed to pivot on the US energy production front.

I wonder if he is not able to wrangle out some clean energy spending in the process.

 

[RU-05]

And TLRY rips from under $6 up towards $7. I sold $6.50 calls that expire tomorrow so I'll have to roll that up, but this looks like a winner trade.

Edit: and instead of buying puts on this move, as I keep getting burned, I sold next weeks $6 puts at a 5% premium. Think I might be better at the slow and steady option trades. Or maybe they depend on the direction of the market?

 

[RU-05]

TLRY up over $7.60 in extended.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Another nice day for the markets. Can't stop the NVDA freight train. If you don't own NVDA after the recent dip, you are dumb. :)

 

[RU-05]

Seeing multiple weed stocks jumping on the ticker. Guess it's a broader move then just TLRY.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Seeing multiple weed stocks jumping on the ticker. Guess it's a broader move then just TLRY.

Idea of consolation in the space.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Apple will reportedly sell the iPhone as a subscription service

There’s not a lot of details on the program right now

www.theverge.com

 

[RU-05]

Idea of consolation in the space.

Why Marijuana Stocks Lit Up on Thursday | The Motley Fool

For only the second time ever, cannabis legalization will get a floor vote in Congress.

www.fool.com

Looks like nationwide legalization will be up for vote.

"As all-things-cannabis news source MarijuanaMoment.net reported Thursday afternoon, the U.S. House of Representatives has scheduled a vote on marijuana legalization for next week -- only the second time in history that such a bill has made it to the House floor for a vote.

Officially titled the Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, the legislation "would remove cannabis from the list of federally controlled substances and promote social equity in the industry," notes MarijuanaMoment.net. The House Rules Committee will begin preparing the bill for floor action on Monday, including figuring out any amendments that might be voted upon."

 

[rurahrah000]

TLRY up over $7.60 in extended.

The house of representatives has passed an acts similar to the MORE act in previous years only to have the bill die in the senate. Unless senators come out in favor of this act, it it will suffer the same fate.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I read they're open to it, not necessarily that it will happen.

Nvidia, Intel lead rally in chip stocks as optimism on economy boosts riskier assets

Semiconductor stocks rose on Thursday as investors regained their appetite for beaten-down stocks and bet on a U.S. economic recovery.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

The house of representatives has passed an acts similar to the MORE act in previous years only to have the bill die in the senate. Unless senators come out in favor of this act, it it will suffer the same fate.

There is plenty of bipartisan support for national legal weed.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Why Marijuana Stocks Lit Up on Thursday | The Motley Fool

For only the second time ever, cannabis legalization will get a floor vote in Congress.

www.fool.com

Looks like nationwide legalization will be up for vote.

"As all-things-cannabis news source MarijuanaMoment.net reported Thursday afternoon, the U.S. House of Representatives has scheduled a vote on marijuana legalization for next week -- only the second time in history that such a bill has made it to the House floor for a vote.

Officially titled the Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, the legislation "would remove cannabis from the list of federally controlled substances and promote social equity in the industry," notes MarijuanaMoment.net. The House Rules Committee will begin preparing the bill for floor action on Monday, including figuring out any amendments that might be voted upon."

Marijuana Stocks: The M&A News Lighting Up TLRY, CGC, ACB and SNDL Today

Marijuana stocks are making major moves on Wednesday as investors react to news of a couple of mergers taking place in the sector.

investorplace.com

 

[rurahrah000]

Another nice day for the markets. Can't stop the NVDA freight train. If you don't own NVDA after the recent dip, you are dumb. :)

NVDA dropped exactly to the 200 DMA. I added 2500 of those bad boys to my collection. Already up more than 25%. Reading charts generates a greater alpha.

 

[rurahrah000]

There is plenty of bipartisan support for national legal weed.

If you start to hear enough senators come out in favor then buy like there is no tomorrow.

 

[rurahrah000]

Marijuana Stocks: The M&A News Lighting Up TLRY, CGC, ACB and SNDL Today

Marijuana stocks are making major moves on Wednesday as investors react to news of a couple of mergers taking place in the sector.

investorplace.com

I'll throw a few bucks at SNDL and TLRY in the afterhours

 

[RU-05]

I'll throw a few bucks at SNDL and TLRY in the afterhours

SNDL already up 50% on the day.

 

[rutgersguy1]

NVDA dropped exactly to the 200 DMA. I added 2500 of those bad boys to my collection. Already up more than 25%. Reading charts generates a greater alpha.

It broke and has been dancing around the 200DMA for a bit just above or below and bouncing up against it. I think on this last run the MACD started to turn positive and the stock broke through solidly since.

 

[T2Kplus20]

NVDA dropped exactly to the 200 DMA. I added 2500 of those bad boys to my collection. Already up more than 25%. Reading charts generates a greater alpha.

NVDA is my 4th largest holding across all accounts. Basically tied with AAPL.

 

[T2Kplus20]

SNDL already up 50% on the day.

I have a few weed plays in our Roth IRAs. An ETF and 2 stocks. This is our only managed account to help with the backdoor paperwork.

 

[RU in IM]

I'll throw a few bucks at SNDL and TLRY in the afterhours

How about GRWG?

 

[rurahrah000]

How about GRWG?

This would be a quick trade. I want to buy the ones with high beta.