I agree that cup and handle is not the strongest indicators. However, if you combine with golden cross, potential for earning catalyst at the end of the month, it is worth taking a shot.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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I agree that cup and handle is not the strongest indicators. However, if you combine with golden cross, potential for earning catalyst at the end of the month, it is worth taking a shot.
WB doesn't mess around with "options". Like something. Buy something!
www.cnbc.com
Warren Buffett made about $650 million on HP after stake was revealed
HP had its best day since March 2020 after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it's the company's top stakeholder.
WB doesn't mess around with "options". Like something. Buy something!
Warren Buffett made about $650 million on HP after stake was revealed
HP had its best day since March 2020 after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it's the company's top stakeholder.
read and weep???
2007? He has learned from those youthful indiscretions. Much more mature and experience now!
That was just a quick google search. If you looked at his most recent report, I am certain he is still trading in the derivative market. He would be insane not to do so.
I do it myself. Generally I buy every Monday morning and a larger amount every other Friday
Well he’s used warrants at times and those are option-ish. GS, BAC, GE come to mind off the top of my head. He’s done with with OXY now as well. They’re not in the money yet though but are headed in that direction.WB doesn't mess around with "options". Like something. Buy something!
Warren Buffett made about $650 million on HP after stake was revealed
HP had its best day since March 2020 after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it's the company's top stakeholder.
At these levels I'm thinking the better play is to sell SOFI puts.
Over 3% premium on a contract that expires next friday.
Maybe buy some calls. Maybe some long term calls. This most recent news is only temporary right? This thing has to turn eventually right?
Over 3% premium on a contract that expires next friday.
Maybe buy some calls. Maybe some long term calls. This most recent news is only temporary right? This thing has to turn eventually right?
You're the GE guy right? Hasn't traded well of late(then again, not a lot has). Any thoughts?
Yea but said right from the first time I mentioned that it’s a long haul slog stock. I said high single low double digits (pre reverse split) will be tough to break through and I think both those things have been pretty accurate.
I sold some in the past but the rest I’m still in the green because my average is a few bucks lower and I’m holding that for the long term to see what happens. The lingering pandemic and supply chain issues haven’t helped it but cash flow has been improving. Still think aviation will come through and become the jewel it once was in time but might be awhile. Healthcare is a solid company too with solid cash flow but some of the leftover debt will like be saddled there because it can service it. Power and renewables are a dog for now but I wonder if a possible merger with another player could improve its outlook.
It is tradable I think like any stock but for me it’s a long term hold to see if Culp can bring aviation back and the other are ones I’m willing to own.
Now I like the way you think. Use the volatility to your benefit. Come up with a good level to sell the puts. Remember, you will need cash in your account or a margin account.
If one didn’t own SOFI would you be inclined to put new money in it at these levels? I’ve been ambivalent on it because it doesn’t really fit my profile of stock and frankly don’t get what’s all that special about its biz as I’ve mentioned in the past.
I have cash. Not talking 100 contracts here, just putting some of money on the sidelines to work.
I do like it here for a couple reasons. 1) there is some support at this level, and 2)this would bring down my average cost significantly.
I'd rather not add here, and even if it drops, I'll just try to roll my way out of it, but worst case is buying a stock at a pretty low level. Again, this news that sank it today, is only pushing the payments off till August. Only a couple quarters out.
You did say you liked falling knives. I've tried catching this thing lower a couple times. There's blood everywhere.
But maybe this it's finally found it's floor? I mean is this thing going to $4? Is it never going up beyond $8.
Yea but that's in large/megacap stocks that make money and whose businesses I believe in. GE would probably one of my most riskier bets like that and frankly it was speculative bet because it was in threat of possible bankruptcy the way it was going but I liked the new management (Culp) and always believed that aviation was a jewel buried in a ton of crap that could eventually be unearthed. Some of the FAANG names and big tech even "easier" for me to be willing to catch.
SOFI is a small company that doesn't make money and whose biz I don't really see or understand the "specialness" of it. If not for this thread and seeing it pop up here often, it wouldn't even cross my radar because of its profile against my own risk tolerances etc.. But because it does pop up here often and because quite a few seem to like its prospects it peaks my curiosity enough to keep an eye on it at least. I'm also self aware that while I'm in my 40s, I can be "old fashioned" at times in my thinking so even if I don't get it maybe it does appeal to the generation below me and there might be something to it.
It's still in the downward channel and if it were to make another touch at the bottom of it, that would put it in the mid 5s to 6ish area currently. 52 week low today and retest March lows and bounce for now but not sure if it'll last.
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Without seeing the actual channel, it kind of looks like a modest bounce here breaks out of that channel?
“Derivatives” is a very broad term and includes a wide range of products. So type of derivative is a consideration, as is the investor and his/her ability to understand and accept associated risks. This is a secondary source but talks about some of these issues.
Why Warren Buffett Trades In Derivatives And Why You Shouldn’t
Today, as more retail investors are entering the market, many of them are being subtly encouraged to enter derivatives trading by “financial gurus”, brokers and other parties with conflicts of interest. Here's why retail investors like us should not get into derivatives trading to make money...
The way I have it drawn mid 9s to 10 would be the top of the channel currently.
Actually, makes me curious just wondering what software everyone uses. I mean charts are charts and they're all the same and everyone has their own software. I've always used ToS even though Fidelity has its own too.
I use E-trade, though I can't say I'm great with the chart tools.
There is a price channel option, though it's not a fixed channel, it's a moving channel and Sofi is currently below the low end of it.
There is also a moving average envelope, and boelinger bands. For all 3 Sofi is either just above, or already under the lower end of the range.
Just visually, if we were talking a fixed channel it looks like Sofi, if it can bounce here, it would break that downward trend.
No, better investment else where. I own a bunch. Dead money for a while.
I usually draw my own lines with the tools for that kind of stuff. Fibonacci retracement if I use it is the one where I’ll let the software give me the levels.
How far were you going back? Again, just visually it looks like a pretty defined channel started to develop off that peak on Dec 8th.
I feel if it has not already broken out of that channel, it will if it can bounce off today's lows.
I need to figure out how to draws lines on these graphs.
Edit: Aight figured it out. Definitely still in the middle of the channel, my eye was indeed deceiving me.
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Like rurahrah000 mentioned, it's been in it from about mid November-December til now. Actually, I could even say it's been since early October with a slight breakout for awhile before it fell back in it in mid November. It's recently been rejected by the top of the channel in late March-early April. I'd say it's bounced off the bottom of the channel about 6 times on the daily, number 7 on the horizon? We'll see. For now though it's held the March lows.
See a bunch of analysts notes on staples and what I call "staples retail"...they've been on a nice run with threat of recession looming and inflation
BoA upgrades KR from neutral to buy PT 75
I've mentioned before private label is a nice winner for them and with inflation people may be downgrading to those brands. Higher margin in private labels for retailers. The German supermarkets (Aldi, Lidl) are probably the ones who sell more as percentage of sales because that's all they sell. KR approaching its ATHs.
Gordon Haskett upgrades TGT from Hold to Buy PT 300
It's rebounded and hovering around that neckline of the double top I mentioned awhile back. A push through there and maybe the 200DMA in sight.
Citi raises COST PT to 590
It's above that already
RJ gives an outperform to PG with a PT of 175
COST, WMT, KR, DG, DLTR at or in the vicinity of their ATHs. Same for some utilities and pharma/healthcare, staples...the sectors that have been green as of late. Recession/inflation safety play on a run.
BoA upgrades KR from neutral to buy PT 75
I've mentioned before private label is a nice winner for them and with inflation people may be downgrading to those brands. Higher margin in private labels for retailers. The German supermarkets (Aldi, Lidl) are probably the ones who sell more as percentage of sales because that's all they sell. KR approaching its ATHs.
Gordon Haskett upgrades TGT from Hold to Buy PT 300
It's rebounded and hovering around that neckline of the double top I mentioned awhile back. A push through there and maybe the 200DMA in sight.
Citi raises COST PT to 590
It's above that already
RJ gives an outperform to PG with a PT of 175
COST, WMT, KR, DG, DLTR at or in the vicinity of their ATHs. Same for some utilities and pharma/healthcare, staples...the sectors that have been green as of late. Recession/inflation safety play on a run.
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Healthcare/pharma should have a nice, long run. It's been soft for quite a while. Pharma is VERY unpredictable, so best to use a fund or ETF:
PRHSX - best fund out there
VHT - low cost index etf
RXL - 2x leverage etf!
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With your investment horizon and objectives, no need to delve into options. I rarely use them. The problem with buying a call option is that you could be correct on the value of the company, but your timing is off, and it expires worthless. If you want a longer time period, you will pay for that, and it still might not be enough time. If you buy the stock, and continue to hold it, you will eventually benefit if the company outperforms. I do get people selling covered calls as a way to boost income, but if the stock goes on a run, you have given away the upside. The risk of selling calls on stock that you don't own is crazy for someone with my risk tolerance. Finally, options do have the value of adding leverage to your investment, so if you are confident in both direction and timing, you can hit some big gains. I had an Apple call crush it for me a few years back (still small dollars) but that was blind luck and not something that I feel that I can replicate.
Wise advice ^^^^^.
Those leveraged ETFs are more my style. If I think the S&P or QQQ will go up over time, I may as well do a small 2x or 3x play on that. Still a broad index buy and hold. :)
Time decay is why I stay away from them even though they still peak my interest.
You may like to try out one of the leveraged ETFs, especially after a nice market drop.
Leverage ETFs aren't really for me either and they don't always react the way one might expect. I'll take measured risks but in areas I feel comfortable for the most part.
Nothing is perfect, but once you figure out the math, their performance is very predictable. The key is to remember that the 2x or 3x leverage is applied DAILY. If the S&P goes up 10% this year, it doesn't mean that UPRO will be +30%. It will be a bit different. The math actually benefits you on the upside and downside, so after 2 months of playing with these ETFs, I like them.
My strategy has evolved and so has my long-term plan for using them.
My brother basically traded only S&P call options - 2009 till 2017 and made over a million. He wanted me to trade options but I was doing fine with stocks and didn’t want to learn anything complicated. I don’t know if it knew what he was doing or if he just got lucky with interest rates going down during the period. He doesn’t trade much these days.
Sorry, if you already said this, jumping in late, my understanding of the levered ETFs is that you have to jump in and out of them. The longer you hold the more the leverage eats at your gains (or adds to your losses). If after a month you appear to be breakeven based on price, you’re actually down a couple % — is that right?
If you can hit it right with the direction, you might not have to just buy and hold.
I increased my assets substantially by trading my company stock in my 401k early in my career. I use to sell my Westinghouse stock when it went up $1.00 when the stock was about $20. When it went down $1.00 I would buy it back. Westinghouse stock barely ever went straight up but traded in a range. It might have been when the stock market didn’t move for over a decade. After a couple of months, I realized my assets was growing nicely. I then realized that the $1 was a 5% return and just doing it 8 times gave me a 40% a year. A couple of years later, I saw a news article, quite large, in the USA Today about a Ford auto worker saying he accumulated over $250k by trading his Ford stock similar to my method.
Plenty of ways to make money.
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As inflation bites and America's mood darkens, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too
The top income bracket spends the most among American consumers, but its strength amid inflation may be overstated, according to a new CNBC survey.
I have not experienced that over the past 2 months. Nor does the historical data on Morningstar suggest that is the case (even over a long time period like 10 years).
I have heard it mentioned, just did some digging: the effect is called volatility decay: “This is the impact of the ETFs needing to reset their leverage to the market each night after the close, so it can be accurate for the next day's move/change. Unfortunately, this results in a repeated process of buying higher highs and selling lower lows.” The fund has to take out some equity to rebalance nightly, and that’s where the decay comes into play.
In the short term or in periods of very low volatility, I think the effects are negligible, but if you’re holding longer term or through periods of high volatility you lose some % to this phenomenon.
I’m tracking all leverages etfs against their normal indexes. As I mentioned, haven’t seen any issues as of now nor in the historical data which I researched a ton. We shall see!
What you are saying is correct. The math seems to suggest that in periods to higher volatility, returns would be muted. In the past 12 years we have had relatively lower volatility which makes the leveraged ETFs much more profitable. It remains to be seen if these ETFs held for a decade or more with higher volatility, the returns would pan out. It would take a lot of discipline to hold the ETFs when they lose 80-90% of their value.
