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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

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RU-05 said:
After NVDA, AMD is widely considered the most cutting edge and best run on the semi's, and that is reflected in their P/E which is in the mid 30's.

You mention NVDA and MU and they are the opposite ends of the semi spectrum. NVDA with a P/E near 50x. MU near 8x. Why? Again the idea seems to be NVDA is cutting edge while MU is considered more like a commodity.

The whole sector though is expecting continued growth. Significant growth too. Which is not surprising considering they can't meet current demand and as cars transition to EV and everything else continues to become more digital.

I think you have played the charts right in that there does seem to be support here, though I do wonder if the 9 month chart is not showing a head and shoulders formation.
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Yeah...I noticed the H&S formation. AMD's $100 support has been broken. I'll wait until later in the shortened week to see if I want to start nibbling before the April 26th earnings report.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Speculation that he may do the "hostile" route. That would be interesting.
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I think it would be pretty easy to do that. He wouldn't even need to buy more stock. Come up with a plan to make it profitable and a lot of shareholders will back him. He could probably just put out a slate of directors that he would like in there and people would vote them in.
 
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rutgersdave said:
Waiting patiently to buy. Have buy limits for all techs near their previously lows. Glad I reduced my tech exposure.
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You need to think more long term. Go for the big gains, not just the short trade crumbs. Looking to add soon, but having been surprisingly patient. Would like to see new lows and then back up the truck.
 
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jtung230 said:
LOL. Speculation is that he is trying to create a diversion from the Tesla China issues. Guess the rodeo couldn’t get the job done.
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Everything Musk does is calculated. As much as I give him credit for being one of the smartest guys on the planet, I don’t believe he really cares about anything other than being the first to join the four comma club. The power and influence he has all starts with his net worth.
 
RUAldo said:
I never understood calls to dump US stocks in favor of emerging markets.

www.cnbc.com

JPMorgan's trading guru Kolanovic says take profits now on U.S. stocks, add to emerging markets

A top Wall Street strategist is shifting his recommendations after a rebound in U.S. stocks.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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It has been a stupid call for at least the past 15 years. Don't seen it now as a good idea either (global conflicts impact ex-US markets more than ours). My global/internationals exposure is minimal.
 
March CPI data drops tomorrow morning. Look for another high #. Base effect starts to kick in with the April data point and the inflection down should start soon after.

Make sure you are BIG in the market by the time this happens.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Analyst notes:

Baird downgrades NVDA to neutral citing order cancellations.

I'd be a little wary of the chip sector, specifically names tied to consumer demand and have a little bit of a rich PE. Even a QCOM which isn't all that rich PE has been whacked pretty good. MU too for that matter.
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MU/QCOM have been hammered but notice the relative strength, at least for today, of those lower PE names vs. the high PE ones in chips. Valuation matters, mind you if the the whole market (tech specifically, even more specifically the chip sector) is weak well it's hard to fight the wave regardless of reasonable valuation. Plus if you're biz is more consumer focused, I think you're likely to be more vulnerable.

More generally, I'd say don't fight the fed works in both directions. The last decade plus has been easy money and you probably didn't have to be much of a stock picker, don't know if you can say that in the upcoming future. Valuation and profits matter.
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
MU/QCOM have been hammered but notice the relative strength, at least for today, of those lower PE names vs. the high PE ones in chips. Valuation matters, mind you if the the whole market (tech specifically, even more specifically chip sector, is weak) well it's hard to fight the wave regardless of reasonable valuation. Plus if you're biz is more consumer focused, I think you're likely to be more vulnerable.

More generally, I'd say don't fight the fed works in both directions. The last decade plus has been easy money and you probably didn't have to be much of a stock picker, don't know if you can say that in the upcoming future. Valuation and profits matter.
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Stick with the solid growth companies with good PEGs. Those will win the day (as usual). Gotta keep buying semis and tech in general. Society is dependent on them. Think about the current and growing demand for big tech and the power behind them (i.e., chips).

Can't fight progress.
 
VZ with a close about the 200DMA. Mentioned 48-51 area might be an interesting entry point. T up 7.5% today on a few positive analyst notes after the spinoff. CL also staying above its 200DMA mentioned around 72-73 might be an interesting entry point.
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
VZ with a close about the 200DMA. Mentioned 48-51 area might be an interesting entry point. CL also staying above it's 200DMA mentioned around 72-73 might be an interesting entry point.
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Brought a lot of VZ a few days ago, looks to go even higher. LEG, MMM, BEN, and O been holding their prices due to high dividends.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
MU/QCOM have been hammered but notice the relative strength, at least for today, of those lower PE names vs. the high PE ones in chips. Valuation matters, mind you if the the whole market (tech specifically, even more specifically the chip sector) is weak well it's hard to fight the wave regardless of reasonable valuation. Plus if you're biz is more consumer focused, I think you're likely to be more vulnerable.

More generally, I'd say don't fight the fed works in both directions. The last decade plus has been easy money and you probably didn't have to be much of a stock picker, don't know if you can say that in the upcoming future. Valuation and profits matter.
Click to expand...
I’m still buying MU mainly on valuation relative to other chip makers. I’m down a bit thanks to gambling on the last earnings report because I thought it was a great quarter. I’m surprised nobody has tried to buy Micron since I believe it’s the only U.S. based DRAM chip manufacturer.
 
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apple.news

Investors are fearful now, but for stocks to rally they’ll need more pain. It’s coming. — MarketWatch

The point of maximum pessimism — a bullish signal — hasn’t been reached
apple.news apple.news

Assuming the stock market follows the contrarian script, the bottom won’t come until sentiment indicators paint a picture of extreme bearishness — and stay there for several days at a minimum.

So be careful not to jump the gun. Your eagerness to do so is yet more evidence that the bottom is not yet at hand.
 
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The man, myth, and legend. Lots of common sense here. Market already doing the Fed's heavy lifting. Bad news baked in:

.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCa1YHZIrMU&list=WL&index=1
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
The man, myth, and legend. Lots of common sense here. Market already doing the Fed's heavy lifting. Bad news baked in:

.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCa1YHZIrMU&list=WL&index=1
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We have a tendency to seek out and agree with sources that support/validate our own beliefs. For nearly every "Lee" there's an equal proponent of an inverse view, a "Grantham."

At the end of the day, though, take in opinions/forecasts from as many credible sources as you can, but also do your own independent primary research. Shape an investment plan. Stick to it. Learn always. Adapt/adjust as you grow older and, ideally, wiser.
 
RUinPinehurst said:
We have a tendency to seek out and agree with sources that support/validate our own beliefs. For nearly every "Lee" there's an equal proponent of an inverse view, a "Grantham."

At the end of the day, though, take in opinions/forecasts from as many credible sources as you can, but also do your own independent primary research. Shape an investment plan. Stick to it. Learn always. Adapt/adjust as you grow older and, ideally, wiser.
Click to expand...
I think this is a universal truth of humanity! Just like the George Carlin joke about driving:

"Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?"

Big +1 on stick to your plan. We are in our mid-40s, so it's stick full steam ahead for at least the next 10 years. However, you are correct. We will adapt as time moves on.
 
Very good data point for CORE CPI! Well below expectations. Total CPI came in as expected (very high), but the story and what may rule the market is CORE inflation.

Total CPI month over month = 1.2%
Core CPI month over month = 0.3% (already inflecting down)

Definitely some transitory indicators finally showing up in the data. 😁

Energy is sky high, but this is temporary and oil has already come down a bit in April. Also, the spike in oil has nothing to do with monetary policy.

Smallest month over month increase for food in a while. Once again, very nice trend.

Hmm.........dare I say, only 0.25% at the next Fed meeting?
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Very good data point for CORE CPI! Well below expectations. Total CPI came in as expected (very high), but the story and what may rule the market is CORE inflation.

Total CPI month over month = 1.2%
Core CPI month over month = 0.3% (already inflecting down)

Definitely some transitory indicators finally showing up in the data. 😁

Energy is sky high, but this is temporary and oil has already come down a bit in April. Also, the spike in oil has nothing to do with monetary policy.

Smallest month over month increase for food in a while. Once again, very nice trend.

Hmm.........dare I say, only 0.25% at the next Fed meeting?
Click to expand...
End the war and energy/wheat start to come back down too and maybe we can get back on track. An actual plan for future energy independence would be nice.
 
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Rutgers Chris said:
End the war and energy/wheat start to come back down too and maybe we can get back on track. An actual plan for future energy independence would be nice.
View embedded media
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Agreed! And remember, this reflects March, so energy has actually come down a bit in April. Yes, we will see deflationary month over month likely next month or the following. The crest is here.
 
Food, gas, housing. That's the inflation concern for working and middle class America. The 12-month CPI thru March was 8.5%, up from 7.9% in the prior 12-month period through February 2022. Highest in 40 years.
 
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RUinPinehurst said:
7.12%

The composite rate for I bonds issued from November 2021 through April 2022 is 7.12 percent. This rate applies for the first six months you own the bond.
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9% sounds good! May have to buy some more this year. We haven't bought I-bonds for while.
 
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