OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Actually, I was thinking about TQQ and UPRO yesterday but I don’t want to try to catch the knife. I will have to see a bottom before buying them. I ‘m using DCA to buy the stocks over the month. I’ll be in 30-40% within 2 weeks. This is similar to what I did after March 2020.

If you do the math, the daily 3x multiplier helps more on the way up than the way down. As such, you don't need to find the exact bottom of the market, just low enough that the rebound will pay off. Based on my CBs, I will make 100-150% on UPRO, TQQQ, USD, and UWM when the indexes get back to their ATHs. I don't know if that will happen next month or next year, but when it does, it will pay off nicely. Then I will decide whether to continue to hold or dump.

That's my plan. :)

FYI - instead of UPRO and TQQQ, you can use the 2x options if way want less volatility (SSO and QLD).

 

[T2Kplus20]

Great advice by Cramer, mocking the bears and those so scared they are buying treasuries. LOL!

 

[T2Kplus20]

And from the man, myth, and legend. Buy big tech, buy big:

 

[jtung230]

Great advice by Cramer, mocking the bears and those so scared they are buying treasuries. LOL!

View embedded media

Rates are up so people are selling bonds.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Rates are up so people are selling bonds.

Who the holy hell still own bonds? Down over 10%, which is nuts.

Hey, any 3x bond funds? 😜

 

[jtung230]

Who the holy hell still own bonds? Down over 10%, which is nuts.

Hey, any 3x bond funds? 😜

Very rich people

 

[T2Kplus20]

Very rich dumb people

Fixed it for you.

 

[jtung230]

Fixed it for you.

Better than smart poor people

 

[T2Kplus20]

Better than smart poor people

Very true, but seriously, everyone should have dumped bond funds in early 2021 once the 10-year started creeping up. Over the past 16 months, bonds taking a dump was as easy to predict as the sun rising in the morning.

 

[ashokan]

Good video from America who lived in China (and married Chinese and reads/writes language) and what he thinks is going on in Shanghai (its not the virus). Of course other reports highlight China telling its officials to prepare to protect against US sanctions (and US threatening China with sanctions which is rich since they make US medicines)

 

[RUDead]

Thanks for the post! Lots of common sense in this column. Last April, we saw the first big jump in inflation. Why is this important? Because April 2021 is now our comparison for the next inflation data point. May 2021 experienced a big jump as well. No more comparisons to the super low inflation days of the first COVID year. As such, the base effect is now working in our favor. Look for inflation to start ticking down very soon. And when that happens.....KABOOM!

The Feds are not going to raise rates anywhere close to what they have been talking about.

Plan accordingly!

That doesn't mean inflation is going down, it means super high inflation is now been around for more than four months.

It's not transitory and its still super high.

 

[jtung230]

That doesn't mean inflation is going down, it means super high inflation is now been around for more than four months.

It's not transitory and its still super high.

I guess it all depends on how you define transitory. I think inflation will run high for at least another 2 years.

 

[ScarletNut]

I guess it all depends on how you define transitory. I think inflation will run high for at least another 2 years.

It also depends what level you consider to be inflationary? 3%…5%….8%?

 

[RUDead]

It also depends what level you consider to be inflationary? 3%…5%….8%?

You will see these inflation numbers spun a lot of different ways to fit peoples narratives. The YOY number will appear to be better but the month to month and 3yr numbers will still be crazy high.

"Transitory" was a political lie from day 1.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It also depends what level you consider to be inflationary? 3%…5%….8%?

I believe the Fed target is 3% now (since we were way under 2% of a long period). Sounds reasonable.

 

[T2Kplus20]

That doesn't mean inflation is going down, it means super high inflation is now been around for more than four months.

It's not transitory and its still super high.

The rate of inflation will go down and it will go down a lot. However, prices themselves may stay at this new higher level (unless inflation goes negative).

Core inflation was already shown major softening over the past 2 month. Normally an indicator of what is to come!

 

[jtung230]

It also depends what level you consider to be inflationary? 3%…5%….8%?

3% is totally sustainable and 8% will obviously hit the economy/market. The unknown can the hot job/wage offset something in between.

 

[coloradoknight]

Who the holy hell still own bonds? Down over 10%, which is nuts.

Hey, any 3x bond funds? 😜

Since you asked, TMV.

 

[ScarletNut]

Interesting FYI. I have a managed account, well diversified, that I give discretion for them to buy and sell. This small firm manages over 10 billion dollars and I've had a good portion of my assets with them for many years. Today he just bought 500 shares of GBTC, 5500 shares of HIVE and 200 shares of QQQ. Surprised me but I respect the way they run my portfolio and have done quite well for me over the years.

 

[jtung230]

Interesting FYI. I have a managed account, well diversified, that I give discretion for them to buy and sell. This small firm manages over 10 billion dollars and I've had a good portion of my assets with them for many years. Today he just bought 500 shares of GBTC, 5500 shares of HIVE and 200 shares of QQQ. Surprised me but I respect the way they run my portfolio and have done quite well for me over the years.

Everyone has done well over the past years. Are these investments part of their investment strategy? I don’t like managers that take bets. I don’t need to pay 100 bps for that. My advisor got me in dividends portfolio. YTD, down 1% vs my own growth portfolio down 14.5%.

 

[RUAldo]

This can’t be a good sign:

SEC.gov | SEC Nearly Doubles Size of Enforcement’s Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit

www.sec.gov

 

[Rutgers Chris]

This can’t be a good sign:

SEC.gov | SEC Nearly Doubles Size of Enforcement’s Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit

www.sec.gov

But it actually could be. More regulation, more main stream adoption, more criminals to watch out for.

 

[ScarletNut]

Everyone has done well over the past years. Are these investments part of their investment strategy? I don’t like managers that take bets. I don’t need to pay 100 bps for that. My advisor got me in dividends portfolio. YTD, down 1% vs my own growth portfolio down 14.5%.

They’ve managed one of my portfolios since the mid 90’s so their performance is not based on the recent bull market.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

But it actually could be. More regulation, more main stream adoption, more criminals to watch out for.

I agree. For those that favor crypto, this is a necessary next step to becoming more main stream and “acceptable” for the folks concerned about money laundering, fraud, and other problems.

 

[jtung230]

They’ve managed one of my portfolios since the mid 90’s so their performance is not based on the recent bull market.

Fair. It’s who you feel comfortable with. My red flags are random investments and funds/ETF.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I agree. For those that favor crypto, this is a necessary next step to becoming more main stream and “acceptable” for the folks concerned about money laundering, fraud, and other problems.

Second +1. Crypto common sense regulation is a positive. The market needs it.

 

[jtung230]

Second +1. Crypto common sense regulation is a positive. The market needs it.

Start with KYC.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Everyone has done well over the past years. Are these investments part of their investment strategy? I don’t like managers that take bets. I don’t need to pay 100 bps for that. My advisor got me in dividends portfolio. YTD, down 1% vs my own growth portfolio down 14.5%.

Our backdoor Roth IRAs are in managed accounts. 85-90% of the allocation are funds and ETFs that are long holds. The other 10-15% are for shorter plays that the management company likes.....stocks and focused ETFs. The accounts have done very well over the past 14-15 years, including the shorter plays.

 

[jtung230]

Our backdoor Roth IRAs are in managed accounts. 85-90% of the allocation are funds and ETFs that are long holds. The other 10-15% are for shorter plays that the management company likes.....stocks and focused ETFs. The accounts have done very well over the past 14-15 years, including the shorter plays.

I thought you manage your own investments?

 

[zazoo2002]

I sold 10 AMD $85 strike puts yesterday; collected the expired premium today and purchased 1k shares at the close ~ $85.50. Next week should be interesting.

Strong 1Q22 earnings report and guidance from AMD - Record quarterly revenue of $5.9 billion grew 71% year-over-year; Gross margin grew 2 percentage points and non-GAAP gross margin grew 7 percentage points year-over-year.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I thought you manage your own investments?

I manage 6 of our 7 retirement accounts and of course, my fun account. Too lazy to bother with backdoor Roth paperwork. That account makes up 10-12% of our retirement assets. That team also helps with other financial needs.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Strong 1Q22 earnings report and guidance from AMD - Record quarterly revenue of $5.9 billion grew 71% year-over-year; Gross margin grew 2 percentage points and non-GAAP gross margin grew 7 percentage points year-over-year.

+1
AMD crushes it.

AMD sales jump 71%, shrugging off concerns about PC slowdown

AMD reported first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates for earnings and revenue.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jtung230]

I manage 6 of our 7 retirement accounts and of course, my fun account. Too lazy to bother with backdoor Roth paperwork. That account makes up 10-12% of our retirement assets. That team also helps with other financial needs.

I just hate paying double fees.

 

[RU in IM]

Second +1. Crypto common sense regulation is a positive. The market needs it.

FYI, there were 92,000 suspicious activity reports filed with FinCen in 2021 related to crypto, double the previous year. More regulation will result in more scrutiny of the people who actually use it (versus the speculators). Be careful what you wish for

 

[T2Kplus20]

I just hate paying double fees.

Not great idea to do that too much, but as of now, the value has outweighed the extra fees.

 

[RU-05]

Both Josh Brown and Steve Grasso saying the heavily beaten down biotech's are ready for a big bounce.

 

[RUAldo]

Both Josh Brown and Steve Grasso saying the heavily beaten down biotech's are ready for a big bounce.

Which ones in particular?

 

[RU-05]

Which ones in particular?

Grasso just went IBB, not sure if Brown picked a particular stock, but his thought was, cancer research does not slow down because of a recession.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Which ones in particular?

The sector. Don't mess with individual biotech stocks.

 

[RU-05]

Was half watching Cramer but he seemed to be hating on the home builders, cited the 5x P/E's as a value trap.

I'm still keeping an eye on DHI. Yes affordability, due to high commodity and now rising interest rates is a headwind, but the overall lack of housing supply is a tailwind. Once commodities come down and interest rates moderate the builder's will get back on track.