BIIB and Moderna are two big names out there. The former seems to be very Alzheimer's focused, while MRNA is on based on the vaccines it's ticker suggests.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Home builders are meh. May be a while to get back on track. Probably better plays to go with now.
Whether you think TDOC has a future or not, the stock going down to $28 was asinine.
BIIB is a biotech in name only now. Really just a pharma company. Not sure if MRNA is a one hit wonder. I have been eyeing a 2x or 3x biotech index play. Hmm.....
Welp it does seem clear that Covid, and the covid vaccine will continue to be a thing. Sure not to 2021 levels in terms of Covid vaccine sales, but the stock has that baked in given it's currently at a 5x P/E. But Moderna is almost definitely going to be a player in the flu vaccine game. Not sure how much money is there.
The big one looking fwd might be the cancer vaccines, and whether Moderna can be a leader there.
Now Steve Weis does like to point out that Moderna is currently selling their covid vaccine's at pandemic prices, and once the pandemic is officially declared over, they will be able to sell it for a lot more money.
Sound reasonable. However, when they can sell the vaccine for more money, the volume of usage will likely drop. I'm bullish on the sector, but it is nearly impossible to pick the winners and losers in biotech.
MRNA is the one company I might(they are up this morning on their earnings report, with rev's tripling yoy). Otherwise i'd go IBB, and this is the one sector that I would go ETF.
The sector is beaten down so damn much, check out the 2x or 3x biotech index plays. Maximize your returns on the upswing. Proshares has the 2x BIB. The other big leveraged company (Direxion) has a 3x. That one maybe too wild. LOL!
Similar ETFs for the biotech sector, but XBI leans more into the small, clinical-stage biotech companies (and thus more volatile than IBB).
Sure. IBB top ten holdings = 51% of portfolio, the big names. XBI = 9%, the "little" names. But my ? was aimed at RU05's take.
Truthfully I don't even know the options. But if the thesis is, this sector is really beaten down and it is due to go on a run, then I'm looking for beta. So the leveraged etf's sound very interesting, as does an ETF based more around the smaller companies.
I'm adding to Uber. Been a bust for me thus far, down a bunch this morning on earnings, but much of the earnings hit is based on investments into companies such as DIDI. Seems business is coming back strong, they are doing a much better job with drivers, and they are calling for profitability very soon, though that has been the dangling carrot for awhile.
So hopefully I'm taking advantage of an overreaction and adding just before profitability, and not putting more money into a sinking ship.
So hopefully I'm taking advantage of an overreaction and adding just before profitability, and not putting more money into a sinking ship.
just looking at the IBB's 10 year performance relative to the S&P and the Nasdaq.
From 2012 to mid 2015 the IBB far outperformed up 200% in that time span while the S&P and Nasdaq were somewhere around 50% and 70% respectively.
But from that point til the covid dip in early 2020 the IBB was flat/down a bit, while the Nasdaq took the lead in terms of relative performance. The S&P caught up but still lagged in that time frame.
Right now the IBB is still right there at those precovid levels( and still below that 2015 high) while the Nasdaq has taken a strong lead in 10 year outperformance and the S&P inched above it as well.
On the overall chart the IBB had a fantastic 5 year period from 2010 to 2015, up about 5x during that time frame, but other then that, whether we are talking 2002 till 2010, or 2015 till now, it's been dead money.
From 2012 to mid 2015 the IBB far outperformed up 200% in that time span while the S&P and Nasdaq were somewhere around 50% and 70% respectively.
But from that point til the covid dip in early 2020 the IBB was flat/down a bit, while the Nasdaq took the lead in terms of relative performance. The S&P caught up but still lagged in that time frame.
Right now the IBB is still right there at those precovid levels( and still below that 2015 high) while the Nasdaq has taken a strong lead in 10 year outperformance and the S&P inched above it as well.
On the overall chart the IBB had a fantastic 5 year period from 2010 to 2015, up about 5x during that time frame, but other then that, whether we are talking 2002 till 2010, or 2015 till now, it's been dead money.
I think there is a sense of relief that the hike was “only” 50 basis points. Also, some/many feel that hikes are necessary at this point and will be good in the long term.
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"The markets" are irrationally exuberant. Apparently, happy days ARE here again.
It’s like betting Rutgers +49 against Ohio State and we only lose by 42. Yea, things aren’t good, but it wasn’t as bad as some thought it would be and we make some money out of the deal.
The market performed as expected after the .50% announcement. No .75’ers are being considered. Fed expects inflation to flatten. Powell knows the math and the power of the base effect. Inflation will start going down soon. It’s a mathematical certainty.
The market is only about expectations. Doesn’t really care about good or bad news per say.
1)The potential for .75 was baked in, we got .50. .75 in the future seems pretty unlikely as well.
2)Even with this increase, rates are still historically low. When rates are too low, bad things happen, ie inflation.
3)Kind of an as extension of the above, the market likely would have been cool with rates beginning to increase in the 4th qtr of 2021. A more methodical upward movement in rates would have been better received by both the market and the economy. Fed is playing catch up at this point, but they didn't try to slam the breaks either. .50 is pretty aggressive, another .50 upcoming is again pretty aggressive, but given everything it's not overly aggressive
4)Sell the rumor, buy the news. I was thinking, admittedly after the fact, that this was an incredibly predictable move in hindsight.
The market wants the Fed to catch up with them (i.e, the 10-year). Ideally the FFR will be between 2.0% and 2.5%. Still low, but balanced enough for sustainable growth without the inflation issue.
As for point #4.....this wasn't hindsight for some. 😜
But don't ask me about tomorrow!
Not sure I'm understanding the time decay aspect of the leveraged ETF's.
I'm looking at the TQQQ chart, and over the last 5 years, even with the current downward move, it's up 400%. Where as the QQQ is at about 100 something % during that time.
So over time if the general direction of the underlying is positive, I would think the leveraged would outperform and the chart seems to back that up. Am I missing something?
I'm looking at the TQQQ chart, and over the last 5 years, even with the current downward move, it's up 400%. Where as the QQQ is at about 100 something % during that time.
So over time if the general direction of the underlying is positive, I would think the leveraged would outperform and the chart seems to back that up. Am I missing something?
The time decay is BS on these leverage funds. You just need to understand the math. The 2x or 3x is applied EVERYDAY. This acts as a multiplier on the way up and a compressor on the way down. Using a 3x fund example, if the index is up 30% over a few months, the leveraged fund will be up about 100% or so since the 3x is applied to an ever increasing asset price.
On the flip side, if the same index is down 30%, the 3x fund would likely be down about 70% since the leverage is applied to an ever shrinking amount (and of course, mathematically, you are limited to a zero value and can't go negative).
Jump onto Morningstar for TQQQ or UPRO and look at the performance over the past 10 years. Overlay QQQ and VOO and you can see how they compare during boom years and during crashed, like in 2018 and 2020.
I forget if I posted this before but this SEC bulletin is worth a read. In particular, see section titled “Real Life Examples.” I’m not saying these are bad investments but the point is, if an index is up or down x% in a year (or other time period other than daily), doesn’t mean the ETF will end up 2x or 3x over the same period. Since I’m bullish long term, I think you’ll get good results over that longer term—just trying to illustrate what impact daily resetting can have.
SEC.gov | Updated Investor Bulletin: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs
The SEC staff and FINRA are issuing this Alert because we believe individual investors may be confused about the performance objectives of leveraged and inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Adding to HII. Beat on top and bottom, reaffirmed fy22 guidance. $47B in order backlogs which supports multi year growth expectations. Current P/E of 16x, peg near 1.
NOC recently broke out past highs set in 2018 and reaffirmed early 2020. HII had similar highs in 2018 and early 2020, but still below those highs, though it, like many defense stocks has been performing well of late, so hoping it too soon breaks out to new ath's.
NOC recently broke out past highs set in 2018 and reaffirmed early 2020. HII had similar highs in 2018 and early 2020, but still below those highs, though it, like many defense stocks has been performing well of late, so hoping it too soon breaks out to new ath's.
I generally stay away from all inverse ETFs, especially the leveraged ones as they suffer from roll yield issues. Take a look at SH for example, you’re losing your shirt if you don’t sell within a month. It also doesn’t come close to tracking alongside the S&P inverse.
Such a gift, just keep buying and enjoy! So many emotional investors these days. It's like they are teenagers trying to figure out their new hormones. LOL!
We need capitulation. We need the last Bull to bail.
Come on T2KPlus20, take one for the team and throw in the towel…. So we can hit the bottom and get this market moving. 😂😜
