I seem to recall certain folks on this thread hailing GM as an innovative EV leader. A true TSLA killer!
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OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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After the capitulation, ARKK might be a good buy like TQQQ. Some of the companies will disappear while other will be highly successful with a longer time frame.
I think there will be a book, too, but I wouldn’t ascribe blame for performance to short sellers. As a group, short sellers perform an invaluable function to the market. Barring a rise from the ashes, she will be viewed as the 2020 era version of Gerald Tsai and his Manhattan Fund,
Well, then there should be a happy ending as high growth and strong earnings will win the day. Then the shorts will go away. We’ll see. BTW, SARK is now up 100%. Not sure where it goes now, but maybe it’s time for the SARK investors to cash out.
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Below is a good summary of specific identification vs average cost. The former is more tax efficient but requires a bit more work/record keeping. I’m doing Roth conversions every year (I’m retired) up to the 24% bracket. It’s just a guess but I think taxes could very well go up over time,. Plus when I or my wife die the survivor will be forced into a higher tax bracket due to RMD. I am also doing conversions for estate planning.
Specific Identification Method: Cost Basis | Vanguard
This cost basis method could help you reap the greatest tax benefits, if you're willing to put in the time.
investor.vanguard.com
Yes, plenty of bad companies and decisions by CW (worst being her refusal to adjust). However, an organized group of shorters directly targeted ARK and took things to an artificial level.
I fully believe in the "innovation" investment story. I just don't believe in most of the companies she has labeled as innovative and selected for her ETFs.
Very good point. Once the Daq gets back to ATHs, where will ARK be? That will be the conclusion to the story. Not sure if it will be a happy or sad ending. :)
I don’t dabble in companies without earnings, but if I were to play there (and I might after this meltdown), I’d want to own a basket.
I think that’s where she showed her smarts. She got a ton of AUM by saying “You, Mr Investor, have fomo for missing last generation’s 10+ baggers, you want to own the next Apple and Amazon, I’m the one who can assemble a portfolio in this space.”
It’s not a bad story to sell
All you have to do is look at the portfolio and most of those companies (other than obvious few) are going nowhere in the next few years. Dead money.
I agree that the “innovation” and “disrupter” story is good. I also agree that most of the companies she picked/picks are long shots at best. I never owned the fund (or any of her funds). I think a lot of relatively new investors got sucked into the story and that, coupled with the Covid recovery rally, was a dangerous mix.
I’m excited to dig through the trash heap. At the right price, anything that’s a going concern might be worth a shot. Hard to know where to start though; I don’t know what half of these former WSB darlings even do 😂
I‘d tread carefully with investment programs solely focused on innovation. It sounds exciting, but more often than not produces suboptimal investment results.
Thought you might find this interesting, from WEB in 1999:
“I won't dwell on other glamorous businesses that dramatically changed our lives but concurrently failed to deliver rewards to U.S. investors: the manufacture of radios and televisions, for example. But I will draw a lesson from these businesses: The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors.”
Suffice to say WEB probably would not view CW and ARkK as having a sensible approach.
Good stuff! And yes, to me in terms of innovation, it’s the “mote” for a given company! And, as I suggested, it’s hard to project the winners or establishes of the mote or competitive advantage from the non-winners in a so-called “innovative environment.”
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C'mon that fool CW set herself up for this by publishing her daily transactions. One of the dumbest things I've ever seen.
Also, she bought high beta stocks in a bull market, money piled in and pushed them higher and then it all reversed. She is an all time bad money manager.
I’m converting to Roths also. I may have to jump to the next tax bracket on purpose though. I’d like to get as much converted in order to start the 5 year clock for withdrawals without penalties. It will also temporarily affect my Medicare premiumsBelow is a good summary of specific identification vs average cost. The former is more tax efficient but requires a bit more work/record keeping. I’m doing Roth conversions every year (I’m retired) up to the 24% bracket. It’s just a guess but I think taxes could very well go up over time,. Plus when I or my wife die the survivor will be forced into a higher tax bracket due to RMD. I am also doing conversions for estate planning.
Specific Identification Method: Cost Basis | Vanguard
This cost basis method could help you reap the greatest tax benefits, if you're willing to put in the time.
Was this a SEC rule or requirement? I understand the principle of being transparent, but they should have scraped that idea a long time ago!
They are required to file their holdings quarterly. No reason for her to do it daily.
Agreed. The only reason to do it daily, in my view, is to build hype
Just wondering if @BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap is going to follow?
Absolutely. Can't go wrong with a company producing hundreds of EVs /quarter.
"You did it Mary! You lead and it matters."
YoY CPI down a bit to 8.3%
MoM CPI WAY down to 0.3% from 1.2%
Core CPI also down a bit YoY
Nice inflections on both YoY charts. :)
It the tide finally turning?
MoM CPI WAY down to 0.3% from 1.2%
Core CPI also down a bit YoY
Nice inflections on both YoY charts. :)
It the tide finally turning?
The market doesn't seem to like the numbers, futures tanked after being solidly positive before the news.
That's because these inflation numbers are terrible. Especially when you throw in real wages:
- Inflation-adjusted earnings continued to decline for workers, falling 2.6% over the past year due to the surging cost of living.
That's good news if you want inflation to drop. The worst dynamic is the price and wage spiral when both are rapidly increasing.
The market needs to read the report and understand the details. The drop in futures was pure emotions based on a headline.
Based on what I've observed so far, May is going to be rough. Gas and groceries are up from April. Not only are we not out of the woods, the woods are thickening. Hang on....
The woods are thinning out. Look at the charts. CPI has crested and ticked down. Both full CPI and Core CPI. Position yourself accordingly. Wages down. All good news.
May data point may be the nail in the inflation coffin.
We have to increase interest rates much higher and we’ll go into a recession. The Fed, to simulate the economy, can start increasing interest rates and the market will go higher.
Goldman is predicting this. Feds to start lowering rates and stimulating the economy......by the end of 2022! LOL.
Microstrategy, a company whose main business line is the design, development, marketing, and sales of its software platform through licensing arrangements and cloud subscriptions and related services.
But, the company took on a huge bet on Bitcoin as most of you know. And at one point, had over $3.5 billion in unrealized gains. Then, with many additional Bitcoin purchases on the way down from $69,000 (which increased their cost basis significantly) combined with the current Bitcoin price dropping to about $30,000, the gain has been completely wiped out. All is not lost at this point, as they are at break even. (And Bitcoin may very well rebound to all time highs)
However, the problem is that many bought into the hysteria and pushed the company’s stock price up to over $800 a share. The price change had nothing to do with their core business, but instead, pure speculation. Well, the impact is brutal. The shareholders that got in late, and there were many (just like the Jonny come lately ARKK investors), have watched their shares drop a staggering 78%, which includes 46% (15% today) in the last week. I guess there wasn’t enough HODLERS!!!!
And BTW, this is the same microstrategy that had their stock price reach over $1000 a share during the dot.com Era, only to have the price drop to about $10 a share during the bust.
But, the company took on a huge bet on Bitcoin as most of you know. And at one point, had over $3.5 billion in unrealized gains. Then, with many additional Bitcoin purchases on the way down from $69,000 (which increased their cost basis significantly) combined with the current Bitcoin price dropping to about $30,000, the gain has been completely wiped out. All is not lost at this point, as they are at break even. (And Bitcoin may very well rebound to all time highs)
However, the problem is that many bought into the hysteria and pushed the company’s stock price up to over $800 a share. The price change had nothing to do with their core business, but instead, pure speculation. Well, the impact is brutal. The shareholders that got in late, and there were many (just like the Jonny come lately ARKK investors), have watched their shares drop a staggering 78%, which includes 46% (15% today) in the last week. I guess there wasn’t enough HODLERS!!!!
And BTW, this is the same microstrategy that had their stock price reach over $1000 a share during the dot.com Era, only to have the price drop to about $10 a share during the bust.
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I did well riding it up from 13K ish. But I've taken the beating on the way down. Won't do so below $28K. If BTC breaks these current levels I am out.
Supply chains are now into the 1-2 month red zone. Was talking to one of our doctors and RWJ in New Brunswick only has 1-2 months left of critical supplies until everything dries up completely. This is due to the Chinese lockdown.
A guy was on Halftime yesterday and he noted that because of a highly unusual wet spring season, top 5 in recorded history, only like 20% of the corn that should has been planted actually have been.
Expects the result to be continually rising food prices.
At the retail store level I'm seeing things that have been difficult to get for almost 2 years, finally becoming available.
Other things not so much. But overall it's better. Though there is likely a lag until I see the Shanghai shutdown effects.
Food prices are already sky high. Hard to imagine them going even higher. Was at Wegmans the other day and some foods have doubled in price. Made me appreciate Walmart that much more. Then on way home I hit gas station for a whopping $97 bill - which not long ago was in the low $60s.
I just came back from the store and crackers was $4.00. Almost everyplace is increasing prices an extra $1.00. No where I go haven’t increase their prices already. I feel sorry for the middle class and poor. Lot of thief and stealing going to happen.
S&P down 17%. Expect 25-30% down. Aapl and MSFT going to new lows. AApl will hit $135-140 and MSFT $240-250.
I’m glad I’m a market timer.
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