OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

Food prices are already sky high. Hard to imagine them going even higher. Was at Wegmans the other day and some foods have doubled in price. Made me appreciate Walmart that much more. Then on way home I hit gas station for a whopping $97 bill - which not long ago was in the low $60s.

Food prices are funny. I've been going to whole foods instead of my local, and their private label stuff is so much cheaper then name brand stuff, that I've been able to switch with out much of an increase.

Whole Foods also has some of the same name brand stuff as my local, way cheaper. Can of Amy's soup is $4.99 at my local, $3.39 at Whole Foods. I've seen it at Target for $2.99.

I don't know if the local is paying more, is pricing in further inflation, or is just gouging, but it's a pretty notable difference.

 

[rutgersdave]

I’m going to start looking for a part time job.

 

[RutgersNo1]

End game?

 

[rutgersdave]

End game?

3,400-3,800 . You’re know capitulation when the market goes down 5-10% in one day and you want to rush to your iPad to sell your stocks.

 

[RU in IM]

3,400-3,800 . You’re know capitulation when the market goes down 5-10% in one day and you want to rush to your iPad to sell your stocks.

Capitulation is not always an overall market event. In this case, many tech stocks already experienced a capitulation event over the last 4 months. There are a few more to go, but most have been washed out already.

 

[Joey Bags]

Capitulation is not always an overall market event. In this case, many tech stocks already experienced a capitulation event over the last 4 months. There are a few more to go, but most have been washed out already.

Depends on their business model. Some companies, like Tesla, Rivian, Netflix, and Carvanna, are completely f***ed. others not so much, and may even thrive.

 

[jtung230]

Microstrategy, a company whose main business line is the design, development, marketing, and sales of its software platform through licensing arrangements and cloud subscriptions and related services.

But, the company took on a huge bet on Bitcoin as most of you know. And at one point, had over $3.5 billion in unrealized gains. Then, with many additional Bitcoin purchases on the way down from $69,000 (which increased their cost basis significantly) combined with the current Bitcoin price dropping to about $30,000, the gain has been completely wiped out. All is not lost at this point, as they are at break even. (And Bitcoin may very well rebound to all time highs)

However, the problem is that many bought into the hysteria and pushed the company’s stock price up to over $800 a share. The price change had nothing to do with their core business, but instead, pure speculation. Well, the impact is brutal. The shareholders that got in late, and there were many (just like the Jonny come lately ARKK investors), have watched their shares drop a staggering 78%, which includes 46% (15% today) in the last week. I guess there wasn’t enough HODLERS!!!!

And BTW, this is the same microstrategy that had their stock price reach over $1000 a share during the dot.com Era, only to have the price drop to about $10 a share during the bust.

So in 2044, the stock will be $800 again?

 

[T2Kplus20]

3,400-3,800 . You’re know capitulation when the market goes down 5-10% in one day and you want to rush to your iPad to sell your stocks.

People do such things? LOL. What a bunch of emotional wrecks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Capitulation is not always an overall market event. In this case, many tech stocks already experienced a capitulation event over the last 4 months. There are a few more to go, but most have been washed out already.

+1
It's 100% buying time for those high quality companies. It was good to see inflation starting to tick down. The tide is finally turning (as expected).

Be prepared.

 

[jtung230]

3,400-3,800 . You’re know capitulation when the market goes down 5-10% in one day and you want to rush to your iPad to sell your stocks.

I think it’s all technical at this point. Most sellers sold or feel it’s too late to sell. Selling going forward is more technical or people trying to get in front of it.

 

[rutgersdave]

I think it’s all technical at this point. Most sellers sold or feel it’s too late to sell. Selling going forward is more technical or people trying to get in front of it.

People already know the market, the people that have cash waiting for capitulation to buy. The sellers should have sold a month or two ago like I did. It‘s too late to sell now or even two weeks ago.

FB getting close to 10 PE.

 

[T2Kplus20]

People already know the market, the people that have cash waiting for capitulation to buy. The sellers should have sold a month or two ago like I did. It‘s too late to sell now or even two weeks ago.

FB getting close to 10 PE.

Most investors should never sell due to market fluctuations and only when they need the money (especially those in funds and ETFs, which is the majority of people). Just gotta man-up and buy during corrections.

 

[rutgersdave]

Most investors should never sell due to market fluctuations and only when they need the money (especially those in funds and ETFs, which is the majority of people). Just gotta man-up and buy during corrections.

I agree, most people should not try to time markets. However, I bet in 10 more years, you will be reallocating your assets when you sense a market top.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Most investors should never sell due to market fluctuations and only when they need the money (especially those in funds and ETFs, which is the majority of people). Just gotta man-up and buy during corrections.

Buy the dip! Man up! CL! Buy, buy, buy! TQQQ! ;)

 

[T2Kplus20]

I agree, most people should not try to time markets. However, I bet in 10 more years, you will be reallocating your assets when you sense a market top.

In 10-12 years, I will reallocate assets due to our age and changing needs. Nothing to do with trying to "sense" market tops or bottoms.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Buy the dip! Man up! CL! Buy, buy, buy! TQQQ! ;)

Now you get it! Good for you. Don't forget about UPRO. That one is easy money as well.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
30.98 -0.52 (-1.65%)
4:00 PM EDT, Wed May 11

Mean:	16.94
Median:	15.87
Min:	4.78	(Dec 1920)
Max:	44.19	(Dec 1999)

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

I never felt comfortable trying to time the market. The closest I come in with an infrequent rebalance that is trigger by my Target asset allocation drifting more than a predefined percent. Here is an interesting chart showing returns over the past 20 years if you miss the top performing days. Having said that, I don’t fault anyone if arket timing is one’s strategy.

Here's what can happen if you flee the stock market for cash

If you're considering dumping stocks for cash until you think it's safe to get back into the market, here's why you might want to think twice.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

I never felt comfortable trying to time the market. The closest I come in with an infrequent rebalance that is trigger by my Target asset allocation drifting more than a predefined percent. Here is an interesting chart showing returns over the past 20 years if you miss the top performing days. Having said that, I don’t fault anyone if arket timing is one’s strategy.

Here's what can happen if you flee the stock market for cash

If you're considering dumping stocks for cash until you think it's safe to get back into the market, here's why you might want to think twice.

www.cnbc.com

Powerful article. Some folks on this board missed out on a lot of returns due to the fear of temporary "losses". Traders and investors are not the same thing.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
30.98 -0.52 (-1.65%)
4:00 PM EDT, Wed May 11

Mean:	16.94
Median:	15.87
Min:	4.78	(Dec 1920)
Max:	44.19	(Dec 1999)

Valuations were amazing now. Below 20-year averages on PE and other metrics (especially for small and mid-caps). These artificial lows normally don't last long.

 

[rutgersdave]

I never felt comfortable trying to time the market. The closest I come in with an infrequent rebalance that is trigger by my Target asset allocation drifting more than a predefined percent. Here is an interesting chart showing returns over the past 20 years if you miss the top performing days. Having said that, I don’t fault anyone if arket timing is one’s strategy.

Here's what can happen if you flee the stock market for cash

If you're considering dumping stocks for cash until you think it's safe to get back into the market, here's why you might want to think twice.

www.cnbc.com

I don’t really market time. The last few years I basically trade the FANG without Netflix seasonally around the earnings, buying them when they go down 10-15% every quarter and selling them when they went up 8-10% which in most cases only required holding the stocks for 1-3 weeks. I definitely would have better returns but don’t like to invest hundred of thousands on a trade. In my late 30’s, I traded my company stock and was getting 40% annual returns for several years which got me ahead of most people. It was easier when your assets balance isn’t so high.

I just so happen to get out before the 2008 crash, the March 2020 crash and this crash. I guess I‘m lucky or I can sense something happening since no one can time the market. I just don’t like losing money and I’m financially secure. I know no one trade or invest like me but I’m comfortable with this style. Oh, when I was working, I did buy mutual funds in my 401k like everybody else, buy and hold, because I was too busy at work. Only when you transfer your 401k to an IRA can u actually do what I do.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just bought after-hours for the first time ever. Fidelity makes it pretty seamless. Had a meeting that ran past 4pm. :)

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

I don’t really market time. The last few years I basically trade the FANG without Netflix seasonally around the earnings, buying them when they go down 10-15% every quarter and selling them when they went up 8-10% which in most cases only required holding the stocks for 1-3 weeks. I definitely would have better returns but don’t like to invest hundred of thousands on a trade. In my late 30’s, I traded my company stock and was getting 40% annual returns for several years which got me ahead of most people. It was easier when your assets balance isn’t so high.

I just so happen to get out before the 2008 crash, the March 2020 crash and this crash. I guess I‘m lucky or I can sense something happening since no one can time the market. I just don’t like losing money and I’m financially secure. I know no one trade or invest like me but I’m comfortable with this style. Oh, when I was working, I did buy mutual funds in my 401k like everybody else, buy and hold, because I was too busy at work. Only when you transfer your 401k to an IRA can u actually do what I do.

I have nothing against individual equities and those make up about 18% of my portfolio. I just don’t trade them unless something significantly changes and have held most for many years. Sounds like your strategy is working fine for you—good job, just outside my strategy and plans but there are many ways to “get there”!

 

[T2Kplus20]

I have nothing against individual equities and those make up about 18% of my portfolio. I just don’t trade them and have held most for many years. Sounds like your strategy is working fine for you—good job, just outside my strategy and plans but there are: any ways to “get there”!

Just wondering, how many stocks do you own in that 18%?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Nice summary of today's inflation data:

Finally, Some Hopeful Signs on Inflation

CPI is still running hot, but evidence grows that the peak has passed.

www.morningstar.com

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Just wondering, how many stocks do you own in that 18%?

Nine. The longest holdings being Microsoft and Amgen from the late ‘80s. My last purchase of a new holding was NICE Ltd about 10 years ago… yes, you can call me “old moss back.” I’ve entered and exiting probably another dozen or so positions over the years. Luckily, most worked out well but I did have my CMGI, Global Crossing from the ‘90s that taught me about hype and it’s pitfalls. I suppose the good thing is that they were minor positions.

 

[RUAldo]

COIN went from $350 to $50 in 6 months. I think there is a good chance we have a crypto crisis in next few weeks/months which finally accelerates regulation. Will be good for long term crypto development but the days of pumpers and BTC on company balance sheets will be over which will make the whole space less interesting to many.

 

[jtung230]

Just bought after-hours for the first time ever. Fidelity makes it pretty seamless. Had a meeting that ran past 4pm. :)

Another “de-risking” day.

 

[T2Kplus20]

COIN went from $350 to $50 in 6 months. I think there is a good chance we have a crypto crisis in next few weeks/months which finally accelerates regulation. Will be good for long term crypto development but the days of pumpers and BTC on company balance sheets will be over which will make the whole space less interesting to many.

Seems like most of the shenanigans is with stablecoins. The SEC should of had regs in place over a year ago.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Nine. The longest holdings being Microsoft and Amgen from the late ‘80s. My last purchase of a new holding was NICE Ltd about 10 years ago… yes, you can call me “old moss back.” I’ve entered and exiting probably another dozen or so positions over the years. Luckily, most worked out well but I did have my CMGI, Global Crossing from the ‘90s that taught me about hype and it’s pitfalls. I suppose the good thing is that they were minor positions.

Wow, 9 stocks for 18% of your entire portfolio are sizable positions. I assume most of these are bellwethers for their sectors.

 

[OntheBanks]

COIN went from $350 to $50 in 6 months. I think there is a good chance we have a crypto crisis in next few weeks/months which finally accelerates regulation. Will be good for long term crypto development but the days of pumpers and BTC on company balance sheets will be over which will make the whole space less interesting to many.

Check out today's podcast. Listen from beginning to end. Then listen to one from Nov or Dec. I suggest the one from Dec 3rd.

Gary K – The Voice of Market Logic Gary K

garykaltbaum.com

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Wow, 9 stocks for 18% of your entire portfolio are sizable positions. I assume most of these are bellwethers for their sectors.

Yes, at least that’s how I viewed them.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

COIN went from $350 to $50 in 6 months. I think there is a good chance we have a crypto crisis in next few weeks/months which finally accelerates regulation. Will be good for long term crypto development but the days of pumpers and BTC on company balance sheets will be over which will make the whole space less interesting to many.

Regulation chases away pumpers? Have you not turned on CNBC? Remember this great piece of sound journalist financial advice? $upst is only down 90% since then

 

[RUAldo]

Regulation chases away pumpers?

Theoretically…that’s a classic interview

 

[T2Kplus20]

The Man, Myth, and Legend. S&P = 5,100 by end of year.

.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNof3MOCfaE&list=WL&index=21

 

[rurahrah000]

Regulation chases away pumpers? Have you not turned on CNBC? Remember this great piece of sound journalist financial advice? $upst is only down 90% since then

View embedded media

That was classic. People should take note that this is what someone sounds like when they are senselessly pumping a stock. Notice how he was talking in very general terms about the stock before getting called out. I hear this nonsense all the time.

 

[RUAldo]

Sounds like tech companies are tightening the budgets and layoffs are slowly ramping up. WFH may soon become just FH.

 

[jtung230]

Sounds like tech companies are tightening the budgets and layoffs are slowly ramping up. WFH may soon become just FH.

Non-profitable/growth companies rely on capital markets to maintain growth.

 

[rutgersdave]

Sounds like tech companies are tightening the budgets and layoffs are slowly ramping up. WFH may soon become just FH.

This is DOT.COM 2, many of them will not be here in a few years.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This is DOT.COM 2, many of them will not be here in a few years.

Most of the Dot.com busts barely had sales. Actually, some didn't even have products. Think QS and those type of companies.