I placed a buy order (day) for AAPL before open today at $138.50. Missed it by fiddy cent. LOL.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
HOOD to the MOON!
Since we have talked about biotech recently, here is a quintessential boom or bust opportunity:
bluebird bio Inc BLUE
Once super promising gene therapy company that ran into massive development issues in the US and EU. Stock crushed, money running out, just one more chance to make it work. They have a gene therapy for beta-T. FDA decision coming soon. Why am I talking about this? A few week's ago BLUE got a favorable review by ICER, who is very influential on pricing and reimbursement. As such, if the FDA approves the product, this beaten down company will go boom. These therapies are normally over $1m per patient (one and done treatment).
FDA ad com in early June may foreshadow the approval decision. If someone is looking for a home run play, listen to the ad com. Pull the trigger if the meeting goes well.
If approved, the company will 3x-5x very quickly. If they don't get approve, this bitch is going to zero. This is biotech my friends. Not for the faint of heart. This is why I use funds and ETFs for all health sciences, but I will be listening to the ad com.
😜
bluebird bio Inc BLUE
Once super promising gene therapy company that ran into massive development issues in the US and EU. Stock crushed, money running out, just one more chance to make it work. They have a gene therapy for beta-T. FDA decision coming soon. Why am I talking about this? A few week's ago BLUE got a favorable review by ICER, who is very influential on pricing and reimbursement. As such, if the FDA approves the product, this beaten down company will go boom. These therapies are normally over $1m per patient (one and done treatment).
FDA ad com in early June may foreshadow the approval decision. If someone is looking for a home run play, listen to the ad com. Pull the trigger if the meeting goes well.
If approved, the company will 3x-5x very quickly. If they don't get approve, this bitch is going to zero. This is biotech my friends. Not for the faint of heart. This is why I use funds and ETFs for all health sciences, but I will be listening to the ad com.
😜
Someone should tell Elon that’s not how this works. The time for diligence was before the deal was signed. In todays M&A world, you don’t get to put deals on hold for further diligence at this stage.
I’m guessing he is looking to re-negotiate the number. Many lawsuits to come…
I bet he’ll try. Elon believes he’s above the deal-making norms and conventional thinking, as evidenced by the fact he announced the “hold” on Twitter. Class action law firms specializing in shareholder suits are mobilizing as I type. This will be interesting…
He can do all the due diligence he wants. He can renegotiate as well. He also might be able to make a case to not pay the breakup fee if these bot numbers are materially incorrect.
Announcing that randomly on twitter is another question. That seems like a Reg D violation but Musk doesn't seem to care about that as he's done it many times in the past.
No. There are no “outs” in today’s purchase and sale agreements. Certainly not for a go private. TWTR hired Goldman, not some flunky advisor. the standard for a MAC or material misrepresentation is extraordinarily high. He can try. He will lose and have to pay $1bn, at a minimum.
There are no absolutes. Everything is negotiable. He may end up paying the $1B but at this point that could be well worth it to him to walk away.
Twitter is in trouble if he walks away. Nobody else seems interested in buying it but Musk.
Let’s see who blinks first. Regardless, Musk is definitely getting sued over this and I suspect that the SEC finally steps in b/c of the announcement over Twitter. Unless of course, it’s somehow all part of Musk’s plan.
Exactly. You never know what this guy is thinking or what he is going to do which gives him a big advantage in this game of high stakes poker.
He is also doesn't seem to give a shit about the SEC and they have shown to be very weak when going after him in the past.
in the case of M&A contracts, there are. Time for diligence is over. Time to live up to the contract.
Can Musk pay the $1 billion fee and later come back with a bid closer to today price and still save himself a couple of billions?
If that was true, why has the spread been so wide since the announcement? It's because there has always been a big risk this wouldn't close.
Of course. it’s either a deal at $54.20 or a $1bn breakup fee. Both stipulated in the contract. He can’t raise his hand after the ink is dry and say, “um, I’d like more detail on the spam accounts…”. Doesn’t work that way.
I disagree. If he is right and those bot numbers are a lot higher than he can walk away without paying a fee because of a material change.
The devil is in the details of course and it will be determined by the language in the agreement which of course Musk knows better than you or me.
Yes, the smart people knew Musk can’t close. The whole thing was a BS story to distract people about Tesla’s issue in China. He didn’t expect TWTR board to accept his bid. He doesn’t have any advantage in this space. His biggest problem is that he thinks he does.
He's throwing away $1B and risking getting sued for much more to distract people from an issue that everyone knows about? That makes no sense.
I haven't looked at the contract but there is always an out if the what the company claims (in this case the bots) is materially different than what they find in due diligence. What is material is where the argument begins. If they claim its 4% bots and its really 6% then it won't matter. If its north of 10% then it gets interesting.
It could be a number of issues but this is what Musk is referring too.
Also remember that if it is a lot different than they claim Twitter management suddenly has a big problem so they may work with Musk to keep themselves out of trouble.
he is the luckiest SOB. Most of that billion is covered by the Tesla’s share he sold compared to the current price. What makes a ton of sense is that a large portion of his funding was a margin loan on a stock that has declined enough for a margin call already. He now realizes that this could be a total disaster for him.
He just tweeted he is committed to the acquisition. LOL. This guy is a wild man.
What you are forgetting is that Twitter didn’t sell him. He made an unsolicited offer to buy. You are obviously a Musk fan and trying to defend his irrational move. He is smart enough to say it’s temporarily on hold so they can’t go after him on the breakup fee yet.
I'm not for Musk or against him. I'm just enjoying the show.
As a business, TWTR is a sinking ship. I know EM has a personal attachment to it, but seriously, focusing on TSLA and Space X is so much more important.
If he announces he is out, that $1b breakup fee will be dwarfed by the pop in TSLA stock value.
I forget the exact number but I think $12ish billion of the financing is in the form of margin loans.
…thanks to a call from his lawyers no doubt…
Are you implying that Musk will buy back the Tesla shares? Yeah, not happening.
No, just that his existing shares will go up in value more than the $1b breakup fee.
I don't think that changes anything if they materially misrepresented something but we'll see.
I also saw that the deal includes a breakup fee of $1B on both sides. So if twitter backs out they owe Musk $1B. That would be funny.
BTW, I am very skeptical of these media reports for one because they will print anything they hear, and second because most of the real discussions happen behind closed doors and very few people actually know what's going on.
If Musk were to pursue it, it would have to be decided in court. He won’t find a reputable lawyer advising him that the difference he’s alleging rises to materiality. Zero chance he’d win. Zero.
Yeah, because an army of lawyers and bankers called him immediately advising him to retract his statement asap.
But it wouldn’t be unusual to have a Purchase Price Adjustment provision in the Agreement that would correct/adjust for changes in financial conditions or other factors that could impact value of the company.
That’s true, but those are more common in private business transactions.. Less prevalent in go private Situations. Had there been such a provision in TWTR, I think it would have been widely reported.
