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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Most of the Dot.com busts barely had sales. Actually, some didn't even have products. Think QS and those type of companies.
Some were existing companies that added dot com their name. Retail investors had FOMO just like the last 12 to 24 months.

perfect connection to dot com is crypto and nft. The only value creation is convincing someone else they should buy it at a higher price.
 
Some were existing companies that added dot com their name. Retail investors had FOMO just like the last 12 to 24 months.

perfect connection to dot com is crypto and nft. The only value creation is convincing someone else they should buy it at a higher price.
Crypto crash could be worse than dotcom bust because nobody knows who is really hiding behind all these shitcoins, projects, foundations, etc. There are no real assets either to liquidate.
 
Crypto crash could be worse than dotcom bust because nobody knows who is really hiding behind all these shitcoins, projects, foundations, etc. There are no real assets either to liquidate.
Don’t worry. Musk will tweet/pump it up and it will all go up.
 
That was classic. People should take note that this is what someone sounds like when they are senselessly pumping a stock. Notice how he was talking in very general terms about the stock before getting called out. I hear this nonsense all the time.
I think the giveaway was him faking audio issues.

It's not even like he was called out, he was merely asked what the company did. Where did they find that guy?
 
BTC breached 28K, think it got down into the 25's on downward spikes before bouncing. Got back over 28, but just barely.

I'm officially out.

Edit: BTC at $28.6. Ya, I probably picked the bottom.
 
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So ZNGA was bought by TTWO for $9.86 per share.

ZNGA is currently trading at $7.69. Word is the deal closes either late this month, or sometime in June.

This close to the finalization of that deal, is it surprising the spread is that significant?

Similar to ATVI which is being purchased by MSFT, but that deal isn't expected to close till the fall. Buffet is in on this one.
 
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Talk on half time is bond rates moving downward, setting up a potential stock rally.

10 year below 3%. 2.8 ish I think.
 
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So ZNGA was bought by TTWO for $9.86 per share.

ZNGA is currently trading at $7.69. Word is the deal closes either late this month, or sometime in June.

This close to the finalization of that deal, is it surprising the spread is that significant?

Similar to ATVI which is being purchased by MSFT, but that deal isn't expected to close till the fall. Buffet is in on this one.
I bought a biotech stock (first time / last time) years back for their patent portfolio and novel investigational therapeutics. The stock was heavily manipulated...even after news of acquisition by big pharma. At one point, the risk premium was 12%. The deal eventually closed, but the juice was not worth the squeeze.
 
Where is Musk during this crypto mess he helped create? Where are the tweets now? His losses will be a rounding error for his net worth but what about the 25-30 year olds that are shitting their pants?
Sucks for them. Told you guys three months ago this would happen. You get what you deserve. Still more downside on the way.
 
Some were existing companies that added dot com their name. Retail investors had FOMO just like the last 12 to 24 months.

perfect connection to dot com is crypto and nft. The only value creation is convincing someone else they should buy it at a higher price.
And some existing “traditional” companies were buying dot com companies with that had some revenue but no profits to try to rebrand themselves as an internet company and achieve a valuation based on multiple of revenue, which at the time was being used for dot coms. Losing strategy.
 
Where is Musk during this crypto mess he helped create? Where are the tweets now? His losses will be a rounding error for his net worth but what about the 25-30 year olds that are shitting their pants?
He is trying to achieve “funding secured”. Think he already had margin calls on his margin loan.
 
He is trying to achieve “funding secured”. Think he already had margin calls on his margin loan.
If crypto goes to hell, I hope the hodlers crucify Musk, Novogratz, Saylor, Winklevoss clowns, etc. Safe to say Satoshi Nakamoto won’t be making any appearances.
 
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I bought a biotech stock (first time / last time) years back for their patent portfolio and novel investigational therapeutics. The stock was heavily manipulated...even after news of acquisition by big pharma. At one point, the risk premium was 12%. The deal eventually closed, but the juice was not worth the squeeze.
But once the news of acquisition is out there, doesn't the risk decrease significantly? Granted the deal could fall through, but if the deal goes through you know exactly what you are going to get.

Now in terms of ZNGA, the stock shot up towards the acquisition price on the news, and has since settled back pretty significantly. Do we think this is because there is rising possibility of the deal falling through, or has it just been dragged down by the market?
 
What we need is for PE to step up and start buying companies at these low levels. Or, where are the share buybacks?
 
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I've been taking a beating, and cut some losses today, so I'm in no rush to put that money back to work.

But how bout MP? It's either the only rare earth in the US or NA. It makes money, earnings are expected to grow significantly, and the current p/e of 30 something is not crazy. It's held up fairly well in the selloff as well.

Lots of headwinds for EV because of rising material costs, well maybe just buy the materials.
 
If crypto goes to hell, I hope the hodlers crucify Musk, Novogratz, Saylor, Winklevoss clowns, etc. Safe to say Satoshi Nakamoto won’t be making any appearances.
Can't say I agree with including the Winklevi on this list. They started investing in Bitcoin when it was around $10. They've invested in hundreds of crypto related businesses. They have believed in the technology long before it was cool to be a cryptobro.
 
If crypto goes to hell, I hope the hodlers crucify Musk, Novogratz, Saylor, Winklevoss clowns, etc. Safe to say Satoshi Nakamoto won’t be making any appearances.
Those guys will have egg on their faces. But if you're a true hodl'r then you should be doing more then listening to those guys.

And if you're just a trader who made trades because you listen to someone on twitter or TV or whatever you really only have yourself to blame.

I say that with a finger pointed at myself as well. I do listen to the talking heads, but I'm the one clicking the trade button. I'm not blaming anyone else.
 
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But once the news of acquisition is out there, doesn't the risk decrease significantly? Granted the deal could fall through, but if the deal goes through you know exactly what you are going to get.

Now in terms of ZNGA, the stock shot up towards the acquisition price on the news, and has since settled back pretty significantly. Do we think this is because there is rising possibility of the deal falling through, or has it just been dragged down by the market.
Yes, yes, no...in my limited experience, that sort of price action is not uncommon. There's initial profit taking, opportunity cost, and then macro conditions. If inspired, you can explore the merger arbitrage rabbit hole. Too complex for my feeble brain.
 
Yes, yes, no...in my limited experience, that sort of price action is not uncommon. There's initial profit taking, opportunity cost, and then macro conditions. If inspired, you can explore the merger arbitrage rabbit hole. Too complex for my feeble brain.

As a rule, merger arb is picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer. The absolute returns in any trade with reasonable certainty to close are somewhat low, which is why leverage is used liberally in those strategies. For a recent deal in the high probability category, look at BRK’s acquisition of Y. Very tight spread, reflecting high confidence that the buyer will close along with a chance that a higher bid would appear during a go-shop period. Unless you are an expert, wide spreads should be viewed with skepticism. Always assume in those cases someone knows more than you do. Given the number of professionals pouting over every announced deal, it’s almost certain someone does.
 
I believe Buffett brought his shares at $1,800 so I would assume that would be the bottom.

I brought a little Appl at $139 and MSFT AT $250.

Not trying to be a stickler, but Buffett did not purchase AMZN. one of the two investment managers brought in by WEB over the last decade made the purchase. Many view Berkshire and Buffett synonymously, but if you’re looking for Beffett’s endorsement via his decision, it’s an important distinction.
 
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Not trying to be a stickler, but Buffett did not purchase AMZN. one of the two investment managers brought in by WEB over the last decade made the purchase. Many view Berkshire and Buffett synonymously, but if you’re looking for Beffett’s endorsement via his decision, it’s an important distinction.
I was aware of it but didn’t want to type the entire explanation. It give me comfort to Know it’s a good value and well as your prior comment.
 
I was aware of it but didn’t want to type the entire explanation. It give me comfort to Know it’s a good value and well as your comments.

All you had to do was substitute Berkshire for Buffett. And thank you. I do think AMZN is a good value. Whenever you have a stock that’s gone nowhere for a long time with multiple segments, and one that’s very profitable and growing, worth looking at. Susrprised to see AMZN at this price.
 
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Good PPI data reported today:

In another report on Thursday, the Labor Department said the producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% in April as gains in energy products slowed. That marked a sharp deceleration from March, when the PPI surged 1.6%. April's increase was in line with economists' expectations.

Energy prices rose 1.7% after shooting up 6.4% in March. Food prices climbed 1.5%. As a result, goods prices advanced 1.3% after jumping 2.4% in March. The cost of services was unchanged after vaulting 1.2% in March. But energy prices have since accelerated while demand is reverting back to services from goods, which suggests the monthly PPI will pick up in May.

In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 11.0% after accelerating 11.5% in March.

"While inflation is still looking strong, there are some signs that we may have moved past peak rates," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

 
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