OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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It's definitely a global issue but its worse in the US. Also, as long as the dollar is King our monetary policy will have an outsized effect.
I saw a list of countries inflation rates on one of the news channels and we were in the mix, no better or worse.
It’s been a bit worse in Europe and UK, better* in Japan
*they’ve been crippled by deflationary pressures for decades, so they’ve had a big jump in inflation by their standards but it looks small relative to elsewhere
No way they go 100 bps IMO. The expected was 50, I think they go 75.
If they go more than 50, I think 75 as well. I'd be surprised if they go 100.
Lower bound survey of economists are saying a 1.25% move likely...I think 100bps is very likely IMO
I think they want the fear of 75 or 100 bps (“fear of the fed” as they called it on cnbc this morning).
Just throwing sh*t against the wall here: a big difference between now and the 70s is that the dollar is strong right now (back then it weakened significantly); a strong dollar is natural deflationary force for American consumers. So it could be that we just need a natural unwinding of supply / demand mismatch vs a hard crackdown to regain control of monetary forces — which may not really be out of control as some have suggested (if we over-printed, we’d see a weak dollar, right?).
I’m starting to wonder if the biggest risk down the road isn’t out of control inflation, but (given the existing strength of the dollar) a Japan style overreaction that creates a liquidity trap.
With this in mind, maybe they go with a lighter touch and hope they’ve instilled enough fear of the fed to gently ease demand for speculation and consumption.
I could see 125 or 150 over the next 2 meetings but 100 or 125 in the next meeting would be surprising to me. Regardless, it will take some time for these actions to make a difference.
I wouldn't bet on it either way. They have been pretty transparent about what they are going to do recently but no idea what they do this time.
If the Fed raises .75%, the market will rebound big. As for the economy, it doesn't matter. Real rates are already beyond that level.
27.3% are predicting 0.75% now (and increasing quickly):
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
DIS approaching the 80s area again wondering if that might not be support again as it has over the years, including the pandemic which I mentioned at the time.
I’ve been buying DIS.
Here’s the number I look at: free cash flow excluding cash spent on content.
Pre-pandemic this number (on a twelve-month basis) peaked $23.8 bn; the trough was $21.5 bn at Q2 ‘21. Last quarter (again—trailing twelve) $29.5 bn.
This growth suggests that they’re getting a good return on their (ample) investment in content. While they always have to spend something on content to keep the business rolling, if you treat it more like a discretionary use of cash and value the company ex-content spend, it’s ridiculously cheap…7x or 8x multiple of that cash flow. (And—given the cash flow growth—it appears to be a good use of cash, like spending on new machines to meet growing demand for a widget)
MS CEO with comments that unlikely for recession to be deep or long and that no one can predict where inflation will be next year.
www.cnbc.com
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman sees 50-50 odds of recession ahead
The odds of a recession may be rising, but it’s unlikely to be a deep one, said Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman.
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I would be a little careful with Disney. They have a horrible CEO who is hated by employees and hardcore fans. This needs to change before the company reaches its valuation potential.
Could be, but the noise might also present a good buying opportunity vs buying after he or someone else has reversed investor sentiment
Disney is definitely undervalued, but the CEO is really pissing off a lot of people. I assume that has an impact. Not sure.
Yeah, point taken. I’m adding to a position that’s already in the red so he hasn’t done me any favors! Some of the decline is also just a shifting view of streaming services, but I like Disney for its ability to attach a lot of revenue streams to its content investments. Netflix doesn’t have that capability. Still, need a manager who can oversee creation of good content and keep loyal fans happy.
Would love to be a fly on the wall at Microstrategy right now.
m.investing.com
Bitcoin Collapse Puts Microstrategy's Potential Margin Call Front and Center By Investing.com
Bitcoin Collapse Puts Microstrategy's Potential Margin Call Front and Center
m.investing.com
VZ gone below 50..if it can breakdown that 48 level then 45 revisit could be in the cards. I'd probably buy some there and 42 the next level after that.
A couple others on the radar...in the staples space. CLX I've been watching since it got whacked a qtr ago after the pandemic/hygienic craze inflation started coming out of it. Could be interesting in the 105-115 area. KMB as well in the 110-115 area...95-100 after that.
I don't like the CEO and that is an issue but a lot has come out of the stock too and can counterbalance/price in not so great management.
What a dumb comment by him. If no one knows what inflation will look like next year then no one can know if a recession would or would not be deep or long.MS CEO with comments that unlikely for recession to be deep or long and that no one can predict where inflation will be next year.
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman sees 50-50 odds of recession ahead
The odds of a recession may be rising, but it’s unlikely to be a deep one, said Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman.
That's true but I get the impression that the underlying tone of saying "no one knows what inflation will look like next year" is slanted towards the idea that inflation is going to moderate next year and not be as bad as many are expecting. He's not saying that explicitly but I think that's the impression he's giving. Mind you he increased his probability of recession from 30% to 50% so these guys can change their tunes.
The guy Saylor than runs that company is a freaking lunaticWould love to be a fly on the wall at Microstrategy right now.
Bitcoin Collapse Puts Microstrategy's Potential Margin Call Front and Center By Investing.com
Bitcoin Collapse Puts Microstrategy's Potential Margin Call Front and Center
Mr Buy Low should be buying tons of DIS right now. They have revenue streams all over and the stock under $100 right now as such a global brand is a steal. CEO's come and go for a company like DIS and the board even backed the current one last week letting go of that other high executive. Not like DIS properties are going anywhere.
Sooner or later, you’re going to catch the bottom, or close to the bottom. I hope it’s sooner for all of us.
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
Current: 29.32 -1.18 (-3.88%)
4:00 PM EDT, Mon Jun 13
Current: 29.32 -1.18 (-3.88%)
4:00 PM EDT, Mon Jun 13
| Mean: | 16.95 | |
| Median: | 15.87 | |
| Min: | 4.78 | (Dec 1920) |
| Max: | 44.19 | (Dec 1999) |
Mentioned a few stocks I’m looking at and PTs for them…anything on your or anyone else’s radar.
Anyone willing to step into the breach for any particular stocks?
Fed likely to boost interest rates by three-quarters of a point this week
Markets are beginning to anticipate an even faster pace of rate hikes, and Fed officials apparently will satisfy growing expectations.
When the general public that usually isn’t paying attention starts paying attention to the market or recession etc…I’d say good chance you’re past the halfway point down but we’ll see. We even had a “Cardi B indicator” in the real estate thread lol.
Like I’ve said many times, rates will give the market fits but I’m not sure true capitulation comes until crypto gets annihilated. El Salvador is likely going to default. There will be many companies tied to crypto that disappear overnight. Hope the Fed is anticipating this and acts quickly to get ahead of a major crypto event.
I mentioned above some PTs for BTC from an analyst on CNBC this morning. Where do you think BTC and ETH will eventually bottom?
If it crashed enough even me often being conservative might consider throwing speculative play money there lol.
Cramer sold his crypto and broke even.
Cramer dubs bitcoin collapse Crypto Monday, says many tech execs call it a con
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/cra...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
There goes the commercial real estate market Miami.
