You’re an imbecile if you think a President has anything to do with stick market.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Is there a lot of inflation in the stick market too?
HD - a lot of people still have a lot of money in banks and employment is strong; a lot of people continue to improve their homes (where they are spending more time), have a lot of equity in their homes and a low interest rate. And now HD is at an attractive P/E.
WM - waste isn’t going anywhere but up; somewhat recession proof
VZ - good dividend, so if the price goes nowhere, it’s a decent return.
KR - price has come back
WBA - a bargain price and good market share
OGN - Revenues should remain solid and each time there is retrenchment in the price, it has come back.
DIS - might not move much in the short term, but good price for a long term play.
And sticking with my MRK, BMY, KMI, ENB, ORCL, My 5 energy stocks; IP, AAPL, V, ZTS, AFL, TGT, PG, CVS, GIS, AMGN, and JNJ.
These are in no way recommendations; just my novice assessment of the market.
I am not confident we are through the downward trend, so my biggest investment is cash and other no risk assets totaling well over 50%…. And please……no chicken little or 3 little bear comments….I am retiring in September and there is no need for me to bet the ranch.
Holy Crap, that was quick. The Fed Rate Monitor Tool now shows a 97% chance of a 0.75% hike this week. The market will love this!27.3% are predicting 0.75% now (and increasing quickly):
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.www.investing.com
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
A lot of names I like in your list but a few probably not for me.
Used to love WM and RSG for the same reasons but way back then their divy yield was good but now eh. Actually wondering if WM might not be putting in a double top.
No matter how much I enjoy labeling you a LB or CL, if this is true, you have every reason to be safe. Stick to the buckets! Money you need for the next 5 years (ultra safe). Money you need for the next 5-10 years (50/50 stocks to bonds). And anything you will need 10+ years out (you should stay aggressive).
Holy Crap, that was quick. The Fed Rate Monitor Tool now shows a 97% chance of a 0.75% hike this week. The market will love this!
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
It will be interesting to see the markets reaction. If The Fed is really making decisions on the fly like this, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The Fed is working with data and this is hot off the press.....pun intended. I think the markets will rally with a 0.75% increase. It is what the market now expects and wants. It also shows that the Fed is going to respond to new facts.
I think it could easily see $10K. But if there is wide spread panic I could see if falling under $5K. It’s not a good situation. There are no use cases and all these crypto projects are a joke.
Didn't realize WBA has a 4.74% yield. That's pretty good. Coverage of the divy seems good and PE is good too.
I actually think the opposite and the market will react negative due to the fact that the fed is being reactionary here and not sticking to the plan(that’s your catchphrase too)Holy Crap, that was quick. The Fed Rate Monitor Tool now shows a 97% chance of a 0.75% hike this week. The market will love this!
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
I am hopeful we can turn this around quick bit it looks really ugly out there
The Celsius liquidation number is the one to watch. It’s down to $17k now. Pretty good thread explaining it here…
But the market already expects it as per the futures tracker. Why would the market have a negative reaction to something that it wants?
Okay, here is my plan with the new cash.
50% is going into our E-Trade account over the next 4-5 weeks. We normally buy on Fridays, but will adjust as needed. This account consists of 8 ETFs:
VONE, IWF, VIG, VTV, IGM, SOXX, VO, VB (in this order of allocation)
However, the real fun begins with the other 50%! This is going into our 3x leveraged account. We will buy more TQQQ, UPRO, URTY, and SOXL (we upgraded the last two ETFs from their 2x versions). If we see a little more weakness, we will be in a position to 4x this account once the market returns to old highs. Whether this happens later this year, next year or in a few years, 4x is worth the ride!
We will also convert other broad index ETFs in a few retirement accounts to SSO if the S&P 500 hits the -25% mark (including VONE in our E-Trade account).
Lesson = these are the days you make the biggest long-term returns
Can't let these opportunities pass, if you have a reasonable time horizon! Keep Calm and Carry On with Buying.
The Fed being scared shitless doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in a sagging market.
But if you want to gamble with the irrational bulls who’ve said the same since November, while watching their portfolios dive 50% — be our guest.
We may see a reactionary run — but I don’t see any hope in this market until November’s election day.
And even then, probably not enough, as the most dire supply chain issues haven’t even hit yet (ie Wheat, fertilizer), various oil producers (ie Libya) are joining an embargo against us, and according to reports, shit in Taiwan is about to go off. Not exactly surprising, but they want to get in before Republicans control house & senate. And if you think supply chain issues are bad now — just wait until we’re sanctioning China.
To the imbecile saying an administration has nothing to do with a “stick” market — it most certainly does. And a big reason why many of us sucked our money out of assets after seeing the cluster**** of the Afghan withdrawal. That was the tipping point
But if you want to gamble with the irrational bulls who’ve said the same since November, while watching their portfolios dive 50% — be our guest.
We may see a reactionary run — but I don’t see any hope in this market until November’s election day.
And even then, probably not enough, as the most dire supply chain issues haven’t even hit yet (ie Wheat, fertilizer), various oil producers (ie Libya) are joining an embargo against us, and according to reports, shit in Taiwan is about to go off. Not exactly surprising, but they want to get in before Republicans control house & senate. And if you think supply chain issues are bad now — just wait until we’re sanctioning China.
To the imbecile saying an administration has nothing to do with a “stick” market — it most certainly does. And a big reason why many of us sucked our money out of assets after seeing the cluster**** of the Afghan withdrawal. That was the tipping point
Assuming you don't need the money anytime soon, is there any downside to holding UPRO or SSO long-term? Are there any fees or time decay built in that erode your investment?
Just looking at something like VXX that always seems to be decaying, even if volatility is stabile.
Lesson is that these leverage up funds are not good investments in this environment. You are trying to time the bottom and getting it wrong. Now you are increasing your beta to catch up. Now you are taking more risk to get the same return if you waited. The leverage funds are great if you have a high degree of certainty. It’s always better to be a little late than too early.
The fees are a little high for an ETFs, ranging from 0.8% to 1.0%'ish, but not a big deal. The "time decay" is nonsense since the ETFs reset every trading day. You just have to understand the math. It's not a straight 2x or 3x relationship over time. This is based on everyday individually, which means if the underlying index goes up 10% over a few months, the 3x option goes up 35%'ish. If the index goes down 10%, the 3x option goes down 25%'ish. These aren't exact calculations, but you get the point.
Market flashing signs of being extremely oversold:
Oversold position in the market is the worst in a while at minus 6.8 on the S&P 500 Short Range Oscillator, which indicates a time to buy (anything above minus 5 is time to buy). This is a level we’ve bounced off — 3,930 bounced to 4,178 when the Oscillator was at minus 6.5.
Oversold position in the market is the worst in a while at minus 6.8 on the S&P 500 Short Range Oscillator, which indicates a time to buy (anything above minus 5 is time to buy). This is a level we’ve bounced off — 3,930 bounced to 4,178 when the Oscillator was at minus 6.5.
You seems to have all the tools for the market but it’s not necessary for you since it’s buy, buy, buy Whenever you have the cash.
Actually, I do think the market could be short term oversold and maybe "buy the news" rally instead of "sell the news" selloff could happen after the announcement but I don't know that the rally would last and would probably go back down.
The rally isn’t suppose to last if we’re suppose to go to 25%-35% down in the S&P. So many people warning don’t buy anything which I now agree with until I see at least the 25% down. I’ve been aching to put my money to work. The whole market is readjusting their PE levels whether due to adjusting earning or interest rate.
I agree we might have a short term rally which give people a chance to sell. I was just kidding T2K since he shouldn't care what happening to the current market because in the long term it’s going up,
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Seems like many pundits are expecting an additional 5% - 10% drop in the S&P from here.
I could see that for sure. I've mentioned 3200 as not out of the question which is around 15% from here. I've seen targets as low as 2900 though but I'm not as sure about that. Wherever it ends up going though, doesn't mean you can't have rallies like we saw up til last week. Whenever the bottom is found though, I don't expect a V rebound...more likely a U and slow churn. If TINA has really abated like I've been mentioning then there are other areas for your money and then I wouldn't expect any reflexive rebound.
Staples and utilities weak today...heard 52 week lows for some, I like hearing that. I've mentioned here multiple times I've been waiting forever for "acceptable yields" in these dividend stocks to finally rerate to a more "normal" interest rate environment as opposed to this last decade. With rates going up what's considered "acceptable" has to be adjusted. Come on down lol.
What once was old is new again lol.
www.cnbc.com
Netflix, once the great disruptor, is now taking ideas from the industry it upended to jumpstart growth
Netflix upended the entertainment industry by disrupting old media practices. Now it's rethinking many of its core tenets
I'll run the risk of making this political to say its astonishing how much this stock has held up given the likelihood that the deal falls through, market conditions, etc. There is really no reason for it to be 3x nav, yet here we are.
seekingalpha.com
Trump SPAC Digital World stock drops after disclosing new subpoena related to SEC inquiry
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seekingalpha.com
PRU was holding up for a while but I see it’s starting to get hit, today 52 week low. I was considering buying it. Good dividend over 5%. Maybe waiting a little longer and I’m buying. Made their numbers the last 7 qtrs.
S&P hit 3,708 today which is 23% off the high of 4,800. 3,600 or another 100 points gets us to 25% down.
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As for tomorrow, the market shows 97% chance of a 0.75% increase. This is the green light the Fed needs to give the market what it wants.
Futures also show a 93% likelihood of another 0.75% in July. I bet the market will rally big time with such movements.
www.investing.com
Futures also show a 93% likelihood of another 0.75% in July. I bet the market will rally big time with such movements.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
Cramer has been banging the drum for Fed to double the pace of QT bond selling. The bond market has been selling off like crazy and I suspect it’s reacting just as much to the pacing of QT as what they do with rates.
The market is way more scared of inflation than Fed rates or QT.
Nice new handle there, "Bumpstock." Given the events of this year and mass shootings, you are apparently begging for attention. Go to the CE Board and enjoy yourself.
Well rates are affected by QT too, the biggest buyer of MBS and treasuries suddenly stops and reverses it's going to have a big affect on rates.
Game time for the Fed!
Fed seen revving up inflation fight with sharp rate hike
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday are expected to deliver the biggest U.S. interest-rate hike in decades, along with forecasts for more hefty rate hikes this year, their best guesses for how quickly inflation could subside, and at what cost to jobs.
Fed watchers expect a rate hike of 0.75 percentage point, the first such increase since 1994. This would lift the Fed's short-term target policy rate to a range of 1.5% and 1.75%.
An announcement is due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) following the end of the central bank's two-day meeting.
The Fed will also release updated projections for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates for the next several years from all 18 central bankers. A summary is expected to show rates rising past 3% by year end but perhaps only moderate cooling in price pressures.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference at 2:30 p.m. and will have a lot to talk about.
Fed seen revving up inflation fight with sharp rate hike
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday are expected to deliver the biggest U.S. interest-rate hike in decades, along with forecasts for more hefty rate hikes this year, their best guesses for how quickly inflation could subside, and at what cost to jobs.
Fed watchers expect a rate hike of 0.75 percentage point, the first such increase since 1994. This would lift the Fed's short-term target policy rate to a range of 1.5% and 1.75%.
An announcement is due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) following the end of the central bank's two-day meeting.
The Fed will also release updated projections for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates for the next several years from all 18 central bankers. A summary is expected to show rates rising past 3% by year end but perhaps only moderate cooling in price pressures.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference at 2:30 p.m. and will have a lot to talk about.
