Talk about chest pumping. Weren't you one of the guys who was team bubble in Sept 2020?
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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If we can ever find the top of the inflation.......
"Historically, by the time inflation topped out, the economy had already been significantly damaged, and a recession had already begun. Consequently, if a recession is in the cards today, it should be evident by now," Paulsen said in a note earlier this week.
"Considering the robust job creation, with an unemployment rate at a cycle low; S&P 500 earnings still rising; a leading economic indicator up 4.7% over the last year; and junk credit spreads still below averages since 1987 — the economy does not appear to be in a recession, nor imminently in danger of one," Paulsen said.
"Regardless of how fast inflation moderated from its peak and whether or not a recession developed, most often, the stock market rose in the coming year! On average, among 17 inflationary episodes, the S&P 500 gained 13.2% in the 12 months following the inflation peak," Paulsen said.
MSN
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"Historically, by the time inflation topped out, the economy had already been significantly damaged, and a recession had already begun. Consequently, if a recession is in the cards today, it should be evident by now," Paulsen said in a note earlier this week.
"Considering the robust job creation, with an unemployment rate at a cycle low; S&P 500 earnings still rising; a leading economic indicator up 4.7% over the last year; and junk credit spreads still below averages since 1987 — the economy does not appear to be in a recession, nor imminently in danger of one," Paulsen said.
"Regardless of how fast inflation moderated from its peak and whether or not a recession developed, most often, the stock market rose in the coming year! On average, among 17 inflationary episodes, the S&P 500 gained 13.2% in the 12 months following the inflation peak," Paulsen said.
It's coming soon. Tom Lee said it's clear that prices for many parts of the economy are rolling over very quickly. Just didn't show up in the May inflation data. Perhaps next month or the following? Not sure, but since the market is experiencing max fear, the rebound on good news will be violent. Many people waiting on the sidelines will miss it just like March/April 2020.
But gas prices continue upward.
Don't really know how it's all calculated, but I'm thinking those rising prices still need to work their way through the system, in terms of their effect on movement of goods. The pig through the snake analogy that is being used lately.
BTC broke 28K which had been holding for the past month.
Dipped below 26K for a bit, but bounced back over. Don't know if the cat is already out of the bag by breaking 28.
See if this is a precursor for a further selloff of the market tomorrow.
Dipped below 26K for a bit, but bounced back over. Don't know if the cat is already out of the bag by breaking 28.
See if this is a precursor for a further selloff of the market tomorrow.
Looking to see if the S&P 500 hits the 25% correct mark. If it does, I will convert all VOOs to SSOs. You gotta start planning to maximize the rebound.
Dow futures are down over 1%, and NASDAQ down over 2%. ETH at $1,358, 72% off its November high. Any more downside with bitcoin, and it could get interesting for microstrategy as their cost base is over $30k and a fair amount was purchased with crypto pledged borrowings. Saylor says he’s not selling, but if it goes below 21k, I think he gets a margin call that would force him to sell, or put up more crypto as collateral. I wouldn’t be able to sleep, if I had such a high concentration in a high risk asset.
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Yeah, you got the wrong guy. Go take a look at the thread. I used to get shredded by pumpers who are now changing their shorts hourly, especially with BTC at $24K. All the retail rookies that only knew what it felt like when the market goes up are learning the lesson of a lifetime. I’m taking a few lumps like the rest of the market but also sitting on a pile of cash to deploy.
Bitcoin drops as much as 17%, falling below $23,000 as $200 billion wiped off crypto market over the weekend
Factors including rampant inflation and an imminent interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with an issue at Celsius, are behind the sell-off.
It continues to be an orderly sell off. I don't see signs of capitulation yet.
Just saw this chart on ARKK inflows:
Yea, but I’m starting to buy more in increments now, no one knows the bottom. MSFT and APPL are moving to new recent lows, just brought some this morning with UNH. I ‘m now at about 80% cash and will keep on buying as it move lower. Hopefully, I ‘ll be 80% stocks when the S&P is down 35%. I don’t know how people just buy and hold when the stocks hit new highs. I like to buy low and wait till it hit the old highs. I’m always a scared investor.
I did look at the S&P annual returns for the 1970-2020 and it doesn’t take long for the market to turn positive like T2K keeps repeating.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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10 year treasury up to 325. Going to be very interesting to follow this one. In recent history past 10+ years, any time it gets to around 325 it gets hit with resistance
The "problem" with MSFT and AAPL are how they are over-weighted/cap-weighted in S&P index funds. When retail investors decide to divest their index funds, those larger holdings fall, perhaps disproportionately. Right? And I believe we'll see a retail investor sell off sooner than later. That said, although I've retreated from MSFT and AAPL, I have continued to add BRK-B. Also moved into a few inflation-benefitting holdings over the last couple months.
I've said I didn't participate much in this thread until about early this year. Many of the stocks mentioned not for me and the valuations way out of whack. Now it's becoming more interesting. Who knows how long or short it will be but at least things are less crazy in terms of valuations. PTs I mentioned for some stocks as possible months ago and were thought to be unlikely or laughed at have been hit or come right around the ballpark. High quality at reasonable valuation will usually come through over the long haul. Dividend stocks are what I have my eye on, looking for a reset of "acceptable yields" with rates going up but so far nothing really material yet.
Yeah, you haven't had that disorganized, high VIX selling, where Ma & Pa are rushing for the exits. You'll probably get it, sometime this summer, as current earnings decrease, inflation in the pipeline increases, the price on the RE market corrects down a bit, and yields on bonds increase.It continues to be an orderly sell off. I don't see signs of capitulation yet.
Just saw this chart on ARKK inflows:
The Fed off loading some of its' balance sheet actually starts in a few days (mid-month). I'm curious to see how those limited numbers effect yields.
Most of my recent buys were dividend plays such as T, BGS, JPM, GS, etc. They have largely remained stable. Just about everything else I’ve touched is getting smoked.
You are probably right about AAPl and MSFT but I am just starting my core holding. MSFT is at 52 week low and if it goes back to old high then 40% return. 38% return if AAPL goes to old high. Will add more if they go down further. Got to reduce my cash exposure.
BRK B is starting to look good. Will buy some today.
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I mentioned a couple months ago I could see GS with a 2 handle and it hit it in May IIRC and now again it's there. I like JPM but you know wnen Jamie Dimon leaves that company it's going take a hit. Best CEO, if not the best, out there IMO and that's in any industry. He's 66 now so you know it might not be way off in the future anymore.
VZ/T are not bad with yields and coverage but never a fan of the debt being held but hopefully that's in hand. Missed VZ at 45 because I wasn't around and now it's back in the 48-51 area I had mentioned was support when it was trading above it. It's really the utilities and staples that I'm wanting. I own quite a few names in both sectors from long ago but haven't bought held many of the "usuals" in those sectors in quite a while....mostly trades because I wasn't satisfied with the yields. Ideally, I want both the dividend raise history to be good and the current yield to be acceptable as well. The second half of that equation isn't something I've seen in a bit but I'm hoping that time is coming.
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That's usually a great buy signal :)
I usually flip around and watch the four financial channels every morning to get an idea of what they are saying. It's been an interesting change the last week or so. They are all finally focusing on inflation and talking about equity risk for the first time.
Previously CNBC was all bullish 24/7, Bloomberg was on fed watch and Fox spent most of the time complaining about Biden. Yahoo has limited coverage but if you like tech stuff they are good. Now its a lot of inflation talk, oil supply chains, and now they are talking about corporate margins coming down.
BRK-B I think could have some support in the 270 area and then 220-230 or so after that.
Technical analyst on just now said looks like breakdown from current level, next interim level as 3500 and then 3200 after that. I mentioned I could see 3200 area being as possible target but we'll see. Thinks maybe Sept/Oct area could be the time frame for bottoming. If it worked out that way, "sell in May and go away" would have played out this year.
For those interested, mentioned this current support level for BTC looks like it's breaking and thinks 18300-19500 could be a place where it could bottom.
Mentioned 3.25 on the 10yr could be resistance from 2018. But if a decisive breakout happened from that level the next resistance would 4.00
edit: MS chief strategist with target of 3400 as a tradeable low, GS chief strategist says a 14 PE on SP earnings of 225 (halfway to recession scenario of 200) would put you around 3150
For those interested, mentioned this current support level for BTC looks like it's breaking and thinks 18300-19500 could be a place where it could bottom.
Mentioned 3.25 on the 10yr could be resistance from 2018. But if a decisive breakout happened from that level the next resistance would 4.00
edit: MS chief strategist with target of 3400 as a tradeable low, GS chief strategist says a 14 PE on SP earnings of 225 (halfway to recession scenario of 200) would put you around 3150
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Buffett really timed it when he spoke about Bitcoin in his annual meeting. Gave people fair warning.Bitcoin drops as much as 17%, falling below $23,000 as $200 billion wiped off crypto market over the weekend
Factors including rampant inflation and an imminent interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with an issue at Celsius, are behind the sell-off.www.cnbc.com
PIIGS rearing its head again?
www.cnbc.com
Europe's fear gauge has hit its highest level since May 2020
Italy's 10-year bond yield rose to 4% — a level not seen since 2014.
inflation is nowhere near over and its going to get alot worse in the fall
The good news is that fear of inflation is deflationary as it results in a demand contraction.
The White House is pivoting to blaming the Fed for inflation too so the Fed may be forced to act. A week ago I said they wouldn't have the guts to do 100bp but I'd say its 50/50 now.
I thought this period of inflation is a global issue. Does every country have the same monetary policy?
I'd say yes across many places ECB, BoE, the Fed etc...keeping rates so low for so long.
